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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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01-09-2020 12:19pm#1Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
Summer 2020 is thankfully over now and we are in Autumn, a transitional season between Summer and Winter.
I think we could be in for a fairly average to good September overall, it is likely to be an improvement over much of the summer as there will be more dryer days with rainfall every few days rather than every single day. There is a lot of scatter involved with the weather over the next 2 weeks but there are certainly some warm signals showing with signs that we may get a settled spell at some stage this month.
Next Week may settled down with a gentle spell of sunny spells and temperatures reaching possibly high teens to low twenties. However this spell still has to be nailed down including it's duration, could last for a day or two, but it could also last close to a week.
it is possible that this spell of high pressure could end with a rather cool spell from the north or the Atlantic rolling back in.
It doesn't look like this September is going to be a scene of major disappointment like July and August were.
My wish for this Autumn is for things to settle down a few times and dry out the ground as I do not want to see a repeat of last Autumn's relentless deluges.14
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After being under the influence of HP next week ( well on the edge of them anyway ) the ECM turns up the Jet close to us and the forecast becomes predominantly under the influence of LP systems +120 hrs with a few deep Lows showing up near to us. Not too much rain showing up earlier next week ( heaviest totals mostly confined to Atlantic coasts in the W and NW over high ground ) , goes on to show quite wet weather next weekend.
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No great expert , just a hobbyist with a keen interest but thanks for the kind words.Thanks meteorite is there any storms on the way on those charts
ECM on the 0z run does show a deep storm smack straight into the SW/W bringing strong winds across the country Sat night into Sunday morning but it was far higher off the N on the last run so would expect some chopping and changing for a bit yet. GFS on the latest run now showing a system at the same time but not as strong and further N. No sign of it on the GEM as yet.
ECM continues to show it very wet over the coming weekend and quite cool, certainly will be no doubt that it is Autumn. Unsettled weather with other LP's and waves knocking about
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Big early cold plunge down though Canada and the US next week could be the reason for the Jet firing up so much, dont know how long it will affect our weather but looking unsettled on the GFS well out into the run and in general keep the temperatures cool.
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A different look again on the ECM 12Z with the low much further South on this run and a deep low up off the NW later Sunday/ early Monday. Take some time to settle down especially with such a fast Jet close by.
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Hp dominating out to +240hrs, very little rain forecast in these charts
Showing pleasantly mild days for many with cooler nights developing towards the end of the run.
No doubt with so much Tropical storm activity happening at the moment it only takes some remnants to stray this way to throw the charts into disarray but no sign of that at present.
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ECM showing it fairly wet from midweek but not showing the very strong winds it was showing earlier, does show LP's knocking about but not nearly as deep on this run. GFS is showing some very windy weather at the end of next week but way to early to know will this happen, the main thing is that the signals are there for some unsettled weather. Currently looking cooler next week also with signs of some very cool nights. Will we see frosts inland ?
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Looks mostly dry until next Tuesday when all models show frontal rain crossing the country. A reintroduction to LP's but nothing too windy showing up as yet. Looks to become increasingly wet and cooler from around next Tues/ Weds and the models continue to show some quite cool nights.
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a real taste of autumn could be on the way in a week's time with temperatures tumbling as winds potentially swing into the north.
A big change could be on the way as this very warm September could end on a very chilly note.
Currently we have +10 uppers across the country and by the end of next week we could have uppers close to -4C, this would definitely the first hard frost of the season and cold rain showers. Wouldn't be surprised to see some wintry conditions in the Scottish highlands if this pans out.
Daytime temperatures into single digits in northern half of the country a possibility
Temperatures by night possibly getting down to 0C
snowfall possible in Scottish highlands.
After this there is the possibility of high pressure establishing leading to some very chilly nights as well.
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GEM also going for the cold plunge with a Greenland high possibly setting up shop.
Icon looks very similar too:
This mornings ECM going for it too and this evenings ECM is now rolling out so in a bit we shall see what the ECM makes of it.
If this verifies it brings summer to a very definite end and into Autumn proper with shades of winter.0 -
Why is it never December when charts like this appear
I presume at this time of year all we'll get from such a setup is bitterly cold mucky rain?
I wonder if this is at all related to the ongoing SST anomaly, which as myself and Sryan mentioned in the Winter thread is currently analogous to both 2017 and 2010 which both contained strong Northern Blocking events in their Winters - although also bearing a strong resemblance to 2013, which IIRC was just horribly wet and stormy for us.0 -
ECM going for it too this evening but it's rather short lived with high pressure not far away.
The cold does looks potent with temperatures between 4 and 6C below average for the time of year. Imagine if we got this in late December or early January.
Autumn certainly looks like it's going to bite for a few days.
It's possible that once this get's out of the way we end up with an area of high pressure and some frosty nights to start off October. However as the Polar Vortex is getting going and zonality is enhanced we will probably bring back the Atlantic proper from October instead.0 -
Yeah as Gonzo said above models seem to be locking on now to a considerable cold plunge the second half of next week with signs of possible brief ridging at the end of the weekend or thereabouts but no certainty of this. Currently showing temps generally in the 10 to 15C range by day and some very low temps at night making frost possible in sheltered areas. Could be a stiff Northerly component to the wind later next week so giving an added chill at times especially in coastal areas. Extra quilts, jumpers, jackets and the like to be got ready it looks like, certainly will give no doubt that summer is over.
It has the look of an abrupt change in the seasons.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Yeah as Gonzo said above models seem to be locking on now to a considerable cold plunge the second half of next week with signs of possible brief ridging at the end of the weekend or thereabouts but no certainty of this. Currently showing temps generally in the 10 to 15C range by day and some very low temps at night making frost possible in sheltered areas. Could be a stiff Northerly component to the wind later next week so giving an added chill at times especially in coastal areas. Extra quilts, jumpers, jackets and the like to be got ready it looks like, certainly will give no doubt that summer is over.
Even the guys in Spain and on the north coast of Africa are going to feel this plunge too! Quite a marked drop in temperatures if this plays out as the models predict!
Spain next Friday night:
And the following day widespread mid-teens in Spain with just the usual coastal resorts getting into the low 20s along with N Africa.0 -
Usually the charts moderate a bit as you get closer to an event, the last couple of runs are showing colder conditions I reckon from midweek with some very cold nights, ECM showing getting down to around 4C and 3C but I reckon the ECM is normally quite conservative with cold temperatures so could even get a bit lower. GFS looks windier than the ECM . GFS showing it a lot wetter also, ECM has really lowered the expected rainfall amounts not developing the lows from midweek, GFS continues to develop them hence showing stronger winds and higher rainfall totals. If we had wind like the GFS showing it would give some Windchill, skinning! Interesting that the UKMO is more like the GFS showing some very cold wet and windy weather , hmmm.
The ridge around Sun/ Mon doesn't look like lasting long either, GFS doesn't develop it at all.
EDIT : Looking back over the Oz ECM, it was much more in line with the GFS and UKMO, maybe the 12Z was an outlier. Will see in the morning.
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Looks to me that there's likely to be quite a dip in the jet in the eastern US through early October and a corresponding ridge-trough-ridge pattern over Europe, with the trough centred over the UK/Ireland. Go figure! This, like an Omega High in summertime, can be very difficult to push away and gives off some exceptionally wet months. I'm thinking months like October 2004, November 2009 etc - look away Corkians!
Atlantic looks to be going through a quieter phase now for hurricanes or tropical storms so should be less uncertainty caused by them for the time being though there is still Teddy to contend with at the moment. However, for our part of the Atlantic, it looks to be full steam ahead with slow moving depressions giving off a lot of rain.
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Lp continues to dominate out to +240 hrs from the ECM 12Z and beyond into FI by the GFS. Trending quite wet and on the cooler side in general. Some big rainfall totals showing up especially in the SW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Surprised it hasn't been noted here but the GEFS now has 31 ensemble members (counting the control and operational runs) instead of the former 21 as NOAA recently upgraded them. You can count this as 32 if including the parallel run too.
An increasingly wet outlook into October with a clear zonal sinewave as some days average and others cool - oscillating air masses. But on the whole, favouring the cooler than average side.
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Autumn has arrived over the past 2 days with a very sudden drop in temperature, the temperatures over the past 2 days would give many of the warm winter of 2019/2020 daytime temperatures a run for their money in terms of cold and we're still only in September.
It will get slightly milder over the next week but more cold plunges appear to be on the way with a northerly influence.
ECM looks chilly and unsettled next weekend with cool north-westerlies driving in bands of cold rain. If this was December/January it could well be a fairly wintry mix. Northern blocking is trying to get going as well with the lows diving from Greenland to Ireland.
GFS and GEM is similar with a cool/cold northwest to southeast flow dragging cool air down over Ireland.
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No great changes in the ECM 12Z, the main arc of the Jet below Ireland sending in the Lp's at a lower latitude than normal, on these runs France would be getting a lot of the strongest winds with extremely heavy rains. Early days yet but the models are fairly consistent that deep LP over the weekend will produce strong winds and heavy rain, will just have to keep an eye on the models and see where it tracks.
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after a relatively dry September, October is shaping up to being possibly a very wet month and the deluges are back on.
Latest ensembles are very wet looking indeed with daily deluges starting from Wednesday. The new GFS ensembles have an extra 10 members to deal with so perhaps they are looking more over the top wet with 30 members worth of rainfall traced in these projections.
This is possibly one of the wettest ensembles I've seen, certainly up there with the deluges from last October and November.
Wednesday begins this period of very wet weather.
Plenty of rain, showers and cool conditions on Thursday 1st of October
More bouts of rain over the weekend and chilly north-westerly winds pushing bands of driving rain south-eastwards across the country.
Not much change to the end of FI at +384 hours with low pressure after low pressure, some of them possibly dartboard lows diving from the north-west across Ireland one after another and fairly windy most of the time.
ECM broadly similar with no escape from the rain or the cool north-westerlies.
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Met Eireann: 'Next Weekend: Current indications are that it will remain cool and unsettled for the weekend with showers or longer spells of rain, turning heavy at times. There is also the potential for strong winds on Sunday, particularly in the west and northwest'.
The supporting charts.
GFS not showing it as deep and further to the E. Potentially very wet on Sunday I would think.
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Plenty of rain over the next 10 days. Latest GFS predictions shows heaviest of the rainfall across the east with 100mm possible in many areas. These precipitation projections could increase further over the next couple of runs.
Could be fairly windy at times as well.
Temperatures below average over the next 2 weeks, especially over the next week.
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Big changes appear to be on the way as the wet weather and Atlantic in general will be sent on an Autumn holiday.
Northern blocking looks like become a big player over the next few weeks with high pressure on the cards and dryer weather.
To begin with we pull in a very cold northerly from this weekend with winds from the Artic.
A chilly week to follow with some frosts possible and dryer conditions but showers cannot be ruled out, particularly in northern and eastern areas as high pressure stays just out to our west. The ridge of high pressure will attempt to move in over us but remaining cold throughout.
The high is then expected to move over to Scandinavia and this could pull in a fairly long fetch easterly from the Russian interior, frost could become fairly dominant and showers may get going across the east and this could possibly start to turn wintry over high ground, however this is a long way off..... If only this was December or January.....
Certainly something to watch, this is really shaping up to be a colder than average October, but will it last into the winter?0 -
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