FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

JanuarySnowstor · 15-12-2019 12:24pm

A big swing this morning to cold weather for Christmas. I had today in mind as being the day where we start to get an idea what Christmas day will be like. Let's hope the trend continues next few days...

pauldry · 15-12-2019 12:50pm

The trend is cold coz today is cold.
When its milder later in the week the trend will be mild

Though its certainly notvas mild as it was earlier this month

Nabber · 15-12-2019 3:09pm

13, unlucky for some, looks good for Christmas tho

pauldry · 16-12-2019 2:36pm

Looking at the Met Eireann 7 day charts up to Dec 23rd a lot of moisture and a lot of South or Southwesterly airflows in it.

Zero percent chance of snow but probably 8c most days like November.

Wet cold is colder than minus 10 cold. My feet cant bear much more of this damp cold.

This is the phone forecast Dec 21st to 25th for Sligo

Dec 21st 7c showers
Dec 22nd 8c rain
Dec 23rd 7c rain
Dec 24th 7c showers
Christmas Day 7c showers

Nabber · 16-12-2019 7:36pm

System directed at Kerry. It loses some intensity as it nears the SW.

gfs-0-240.png?12

Meteorite58 · 16-12-2019 8:54pm

Nabber wrote: »

System directed at Kerry. It loses some intensity as it nears the SW.

Something there on the ECM also if not as developed as the GFS.

Gonzo · 17-12-2019 2:41am

some cold hints showing up on tonights GFS runs around new years. Several are trying to get northern blocking going. Bare in mind this is the far reaches of FI at +384 hours.

GFS Op gets cold air to the eastern UK, not quite to Ireland.

GFS Control makes a better effort:

The Freezer is in over mainland UK and not that far from Dublin.

Number 10 brings the freezer to Dublin's doorstep.

some of the others are rather chilly as well:

These will probably all be very different by the morning, but could we be seeing the first signs of a possible pattern change as we ring in 2020! I sure hope so.

Gonzo · 17-12-2019 12:37pm

as expected last nights cold runs are gone, but interesting that so many of them picked up on the cold. Hopefully they will soon make a return and that i'm not chasing a carrot all the way to mid March with the cold pattern finally establishing itself in June!.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-12-2019 1:18pm

An interesting signal alright. Sometimes they disappear and randomly return later. I get the distinct impression we won't have to wait until March this time round.

Gonzo · 17-12-2019 1:36pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

An interesting signal alright. Sometimes they disappear and randomly return later. I get the distinct impression we won't have to wait until March this time round.

I've a feeling we may get something too, perhaps end of January or sometime in February. This is the 3rd of 4th time the charts have picked up a cold pattern recently. Over half of last night's runs were cold runs which is a good sign, not just 1 or 2 outlying runs. The AO/NAO is set to go negative soon too and there is still the possibility of a SSW event developing between now and February so winter has alot of cards to play yet and 2 full months of hoping and waiting left to go!

squarecircles · 17-12-2019 2:14pm

Gonzo wrote: »

2 full months of hoping and waiting left to go!

the way you described it makes it sound kinda passively torturous.

im off to stick pins in my eye.

hatrickpatrick · 17-12-2019 2:50pm

squarecircles wrote: »

the way you described it makes it sound kinda passively torturous.

im off to stick pins in my eye.

A lot of us stopped paying regular attention to the charts after Christmas in January 2018, and then hopped on here after a few weeks just to see how things were going only to find the mother of all excited ramping threads in preparation for The Beast

aidanodr · 17-12-2019 2:53pm

I realise this is the tech thread. I think this is a relevant tech Q around the naming of tomorrows "storm".

The Portuguese met named this yesterday as STORMELSA ( E ). However we just had STORM ATIYAH ( A ). It seems the Portuguese have already gone from A to D? We have only done A?

So some saying IF this gets named by IRL or UK Met it could be called StormBrendan. OR will they stick with StormElsa? OR not named at all because it doesnt merit a name?

sryanbruen · 17-12-2019 3:06pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

A lot of us stopped paying regular attention to the charts after Christmas in January 2018, and then hopped on here after a few weeks just to see how things were going only to find the mother of all excited ramping threads in preparation for The Beast

The Beast from the East had a lot going for it with the stratosphere set up in a perfect state for the development of a massive Scandinavian High.

aidanodr wrote: »

I realise this is the tech thread. I think this is a relevant tech Q around the naming of tomorrows "storm".

The Portuguese met named this yesterday as STORMELSA ( E ). However we just had STORM ATIYAH ( A ). It seems the Portuguese have already gone from A to D? We have only done A?

So some saying IF this gets named by IRL or UK Met it could be called StormBrendan. OR will they stick with StormElsa? OR not named at all because it doesnt merit a name?

France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium all co-operate and share a different set of storm names. They're a complete separate entity to our own names. UK, Ireland and Netherlands co-operate so we share the same storm names.

Storm names used so far by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium:

Amelie (1–4 November)
Bernardo (9–11 November)
Cecilia (18–28 November)
Daniel
Elsa

If it's already been named by another met, it's likely other mets will use the same name so as to avoid confusion (we could do without more confusion than what we already have with this entire system). It's the same with ex-hurricanes being called like ex-hurricane Helene instead of a new storm name.

aidanodr · 17-12-2019 3:18pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The Beast from the East had a lot going for it with the stratosphere set up in a perfect state for the development of a massive Scandinavian High.

France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium all co-operate and share a different set of storm names. They're a complete separate entity to our own names. UK, Ireland and Netherlands co-operate so we share the same storm names.

Storm names used so far by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium:

Amelie (1–4 November)
Bernardo (9–11 November)
Cecilia (18–28 November)
Daniel
Elsa

If it's already been named by another met, it's likely other mets will use the same name so as to avoid confusion (we could do without more confusion than what we already have with this entire system). It's the same with ex-hurricanes being called like ex-hurricane Helene instead of a new storm name.

So Sryanbruen, if we run with an already named storm .. this case we call it Storm ELSA. Do we then continue on from E to F for next storm OR do WE go back to B AND when we come to E again, skip E?

sryanbruen · 17-12-2019 3:30pm

aidanodr wrote: »

So Sryanbruen, if we run with an already named storm .. this case we call it Storm ELSA. Do we then continue on from E to F for next storm OR do WE go back to B AND when we come to E again, skip E?

We go back to B if the Irish, UK or Dutch Met were to name it. Remember how we had Storm Georgina in January 2018 then had Emma (Portuguese Met) in March and Hector in June.

Gonzo · 17-12-2019 8:50pm

ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2019-12-17&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

If this isn't the picture of uncertainty then I dunno what is. All to play for in the final week of December, into new years day. Do we stay with the mild and wet conditions or do we head towards a pattern change to something colder and dryer. The models clearly struggling.

Mortelaro · 17-12-2019 9:05pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If this isn't the picture of uncertainty then I dunno what is. All to play for in the final week of December, into new years day. Do we stay with the mild and wet conditions or do we head towards a pattern change to something colder and dryer. The models clearly struggling.

Yeah but there are a majority of the ensemble members in that on the milder and Rainier side
Only A small number go below average temp wise

Gonzo · 17-12-2019 9:22pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Yeah but there are a majority of the ensemble members in that on the milder and Rainier side
Only A small number go below average temp wise

true most of them are still on the mild side but I think this is an evolving situation with runs flipping between mild and cold multiple times. Could be interesting model watching over the next week to see where we end up in early January.

Mortelaro · 17-12-2019 9:41pm

Gonzo wrote: »

true most of them are still on the mild side but I think this is an evolving situation with runs flipping between mild and cold multiple times. Could be interesting model watching over the next week to see where we end up in early January.

I never bother looking beyond 8 days unless theres a lot less spread than that
Form horse on pattern change though is a high anchored over us that eventually sinks south
Settled and relatively mild would be the result of that
No indication in the next 8 days of that and we have a record strong polar vortex at the moment locking the cold well up there

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1207006476012851200?s=19

Villain · 18-12-2019 9:00am

2020 could start off nicely if GFS FI was to come true, we know it won't but fun to see

gfs-1-384.png?0

pad199207 · 18-12-2019 9:12am

Villain wrote: »

2021 could start off nicely if GFS FI was to come true, we know it won't but fun to see

2021? Now that is seriously FI

Gonzo · 18-12-2019 1:26pm

charts still all over the place for new years, some have the Atlantic continuing to barge in over us, some have high pressure, a few have short lived northerlies and the odd one has a go at getting the winds in from the east. The majority are still fairly mild and unsettled. They are trying to bring colder conditions but clearly struggling against the relentless power of the Atlantic this season. I've a feeling the Atlantic will continue to dominate for another while but would like to see it running out of steam towards the middle of January.

Nabber · 18-12-2019 11:19pm

GFS showing Scandi high way out in FI.

19-12-2019 1:34am

pad199207 wrote: »

2021? Now that is seriously FI

Roughly T9,000+ hrs into FI. You would need some pretty hefty computational power to generate a half trustworthy chart........

Mortelaro · 19-12-2019 11:23am

Nabber wrote: »

GFS showing Scandi high way out in FI.

That's an ensemble member not the operational run
It would be too high a pressure for showers over Ireland and by the looks of the rest of the chart,the high would sink south
All academic of course!

Gonzo · 19-12-2019 3:31pm

the ensemble runs over the past 24 hours continue to back away from anything cold or dry. The latest runs are mild to very mild with possibly a prolonged spell of mild weather from 26th of December with mild south-westerlies taking over and lasting into the first week of January. Of course this can all change but looks like we are a long way from anything exciting or wintry.

esposito · 19-12-2019 6:11pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the ensemble runs over the past 24 hours continue to back away from anything cold or dry. The latest runs are mild to very mild with possibly a prolonged spell of mild weather from 26th of December with mild south-westerlies taking over and lasting into the first week of January. Of course this can all change but looks like we are a long way from anything exciting or wintry.

What’s new. Same every Christmas since 2011. Boring unseasonable weather.

Gonzo · 19-12-2019 6:18pm

esposito wrote: »

What’s new. Same every Christmas since 2011. Boring unseasonable weather.

The ECM isn't as overly mild as the GFS and may have some dryer conditions after Christmas, but neither are pointing at anything proper wintry for the next few weeks. Hopefully we will see some big and positive changes in January.

nacho libre · 19-12-2019 8:24pm

As long as the strong polar vortex is anchored where it is, anything notably wintry is not going to happen anytime soon.
We may, if we are lucky, get the odd polar maritime flow, or brief northerly, which, as times goes on, would increase our chance of a brief window for snow, before a brief ridge is swiftly followed by low pressure or fronts barreling back in. The one crumb of comfort is with lower sst's this year to the north west the chance for something wintry increases as time goes on, if we get an airflow from either of these directions, but on present guidance those hoping for something potent and prolonged from a north easterly or easterly airflow are going to be disappointed.

esposito · 19-12-2019 9:05pm

nacho libre wrote: »

As long as the strong polar vortex is anchored where it is, anything notably wintry is not going to happen anytime soon.
We may, if we are lucky, get the odd polar maritime flow, or brief northerly, which, as times goes on, would increase our chance of a brief window for snow, before a brief ridge is swiftly followed by low pressure or fronts barreling back in. The one crumb of comfort is with lower sst's this year to the north west the chance for something wintry increases as time goes on, if we get an airflow from either of these directions, but on present guidance those hoping for something potent and prolonged from a north easterly or easterly airflow are going to be disappointed.

We have so much going against us don’t we.
The strong Polar Votex (which always seems to strengthen at this time of year) , the vast Atlantic Ocean beside us. The jet stream picking up and heading our direction (courtesy of the strong polar vortex).

The Azores high...

For our latitude we are really unlucky not to be getting colder, snowier winters.

Gonzo · 19-12-2019 9:25pm

esposito wrote: »

We have so much going against us don’t we.
The strong Polar Votex (which always seems to strengthen at this time of year) , the vast Atlantic Ocean beside us. The jet stream picking up and heading our direction (courtesy of the strong polar vortex).

The Azores high...

For our latitude we are really unlucky not to be getting colder, snowier winters.

Ireland is possibly the worst positioned country this far north in the northern hemisphere for cold winters. If we were slightly further east we would tap into cold winters more often. The UK isn't great for cold winters but they tap into them more than we do, same can be said about warm summers.

If we were further west, cold zonal conditions would likely be slightly more wintry as the air from Canada and Greenland would be slightly cooler with less distance and sea involved. We are too far west to tap into the cold from the east most of the time and too far east to see any benefits from a cold zonal. We have 100s to 1000s of miles of water to our south, west and north. We only have the Uk to our east and even that lowers our chances in easterlies as we have so many shadows to worry about such as Isle of Man, Ulster and Wales. The wind direction has to mostly east to slightly north of east to drive in snow showers across the widest distance of the Irish sea, usually between Dublin and Liverpool/Lancashire.

We need a perfect set of ingredients to have proper snow or cold in this country which is why we only see decent snowfall about once or twice every 10 years if we are lucky.

esposito · 19-12-2019 9:40pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Ireland is possibly the worst positioned country this far north in the northern hemisphere for cold winters. If we were slightly further east we would tap into cold winters more often. The UK isn't great for cold winters but they tap into them more than we do, same can be said about warm summers.

If we were further west, cold zonal conditions would likely be slightly more wintry as the air from Canada and Greenland would be slightly cooler with less distance and sea involved. We are too far west to tap into the cold from the east most of the time and too far east to see any benefits from a cold zonal. We have 100s to 1000s of miles of water to our south, west and north. We only have the Uk to our east and even that lowers our chances in easterlies as we have so many shadows to worry about such as Isle of Man, Ulster and Wales. The wind direction has to mostly east to slightly north of east to drive in snow showers across the widest distance of the Irish sea, usually between Dublin and Liverpool/Lancashire.

We need a perfect set of ingredients to have proper snow or cold in this country which is why we only see decent snowfall about once or twice every 10 years if we are lucky.

Quite depressing what you said above but it is true.

Anyway, I suppose this Christmas coming could be a lot worse. At least there is highly unlikely to be temperatures of 14 or 15 C on Christmas Day going by the latest guidance. So no repeat of 2011 or 2015.

I remain hopeful of a pattern change in January. Still a large chunk of winter left yet.

Good riddance to 2019 I say

Gonzo · 19-12-2019 9:50pm

esposito wrote: »

Quite depressing what you said above but it is true.

I remain hopeful of a pattern change in January. Still a large chunk of winter left yet.

Good riddance to 2019 I say

I remain hopefully too, I think we'll have to wait till January to see if there is going to be any sort of a pattern change. One of the things that gives me hope is that the Atlantic has been raging since September with very little let up, almost 4 months of deluges. This has to run out of steam at some stage. Most winters we get unlucky with the Atlantic firing up around end of October or beginning of November, but we've had it like this for almost quarter of a year now. The charts seemed like they were on to something over the past week, but the past 2 days has seen a reverse in opportunities with most now keeping us mild and the Atlantic going.

Gonzo · 20-12-2019 1:30pm

a few cold runs this morning, this one is the pick of the bunch, unfortunately very little chance of this happening. If it did happen it would bring plenty of snow showers to Leinster with -10 uppers over the country. One can only dream.

The majority of the runs keep the Atlantic going while others have high pressure sitting around us.

Carol25 · 20-12-2019 6:28pm

Gonzo wrote: »

a few cold runs this morning, this one is the pick of the bunch, unfortunately very little chance of this happening. If it did happen it would bring plenty of snow showers to Leinster with -10 uppers over the country. One can only dream.

The majority of the runs keep the Atlantic going while others have high pressure sitting around us.

The only positive about the Atlantic being dominant for winter and maybe early spring is perhaps we’ll get nice late spring or summer weather...hard to know with Mother Nature though!

Kermit.de.frog · 21-12-2019 12:24am

This is a somewhat more useful evolution for coldies this evening

US2 · 21-12-2019 4:41am

Carol25 wrote: »

The only positive about the Atlantic being dominant for winter and maybe early spring is perhaps we’ll get nice late spring or summer weather...hard to know with Mother Nature though!

Not the thread for this general debate but I'm fairly confident we get hot summers after cold winter/spring , definitely in my lifetime. 2010/2013/2018.

No doubt sryan will prove me wrong

Gonzo · 22-12-2019 1:04pm

FI is starting to trend very wet again with high pressure looking less lightly with each run. high pressure staying more to our south allowing the westerlies to continue feeding in spells of rain over us. We finish up on the 7th of January with a very stormy looking scene with the Atlantic unleashing deep areas of low pressure over us. The Atlantic refusing to let go. We appear to have no ingredients for a cold and settled setup any time soon.

ZX7R · 22-12-2019 1:38pm

Gonzo wrote: »

FI is starting to trend very wet again with high pressure looking less lightly with each run. high pressure staying more to our south allowing the westerlies to continue feeding in spells of rain over us. We finish up on the 7th of January with a very stormy looking scene with the Atlantic unleashing deep areas of low pressure over us. The Atlantic refusing to let go. We appear to have no ingredients for a cold and settled setup any time soon.

I remember a couple of years ago the eagle did an interview,he was talking about a long run of very wet wether during a summer 96 I think I can be corrected on this, but in the interview he stated if the weather has been the same for so long it doesn't matter what the charts are trending you could bet your house that the weather will continue the same.
That interview and what he said has always stuck in my mind and he always seems to be correct.

Logan Roy · 22-12-2019 1:47pm

The only consolation is it won’t continue above average wet forever and we might get a better spring summer as a result! Nice day today but as you’ve alluded to on a few occasions, we really need some dry weather to allow the saturated ground to dry up a bit. Endless rain combined with the weak sun and short days has everywhere sodden.

Gonzo · 22-12-2019 2:43pm

ZX7R wrote: »

I remember a couple of years ago the eagle did an interview,he was talking about a long run of very wet wether during a summer 96 I think I can be corrected on this, but in the interview he stated if the weather has been the same for so long it doesn't matter what the charts are trending you could bet your house that the weather will continue the same.
That interview and what he said has always stuck in my mind and he always seems to be correct.

he could well be correct. If the CFS is anything to go by in their long term outlook, they are signaling this pattern to stick with us right through to June 2020. I really hope this is not the case but it wouldn't surprise me if it did. Once the Atlantic is fully powered up and there is nothing preventing it from running out of steam, it will just go on and on. Most of the long term models in the Autumn were signaling a very zonal and Atlantic driven winter. They have certainly been right so far.

Mortelaro · 22-12-2019 3:48pm

The cfs is shoite
There is no technology that can predict weather out that far
As a programme out that far is just for academia looking at probability theory
It has no practical forecasting use AT ALL
Piers Corbyn might be more accurate and his record is up there with stopped clocks

Nature is a wonderful thing,patterns do get stuck,we had it in 95,2013,2010 and more recently 2018
The Eagle is right on that
But stuck patterns eventually change too and when they do,you see it sub 7 days in the models

Gonzo · 22-12-2019 4:05pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

The cfs is shoite
There is no technology that can predict weather out that far
As a programme out that far is just for academia looking at probability theory
It has no practical forecasting use AT ALL
Piers Corbyn might be more accurate and his record is up there with stopped clocks

Gavs weather was going to discontinue using the CFS Long Range but decided a mixture of the CFS and Beijing CC going forward. Of course most models more than 7 days ahead aren't really worth much, they give insights into what possibly might happen. The past 2 weeks has shown that even 3 days ahead is difficult.

I will say tho that the long range for Winter is bang on so far, then again the probability of a mild zonal winter outlook has a much higher chance of working out compared to a wintry winter forecast, and last winter was one of those and failed spectacularly.

BLIZZARD7 · 22-12-2019 4:06pm

I agree the CFS is near useless ^ but it doesn't quite show a continuation of the current pattern on its latest output - Jan 2020 looks cold and easterly driven -

cfs-1-1-2020.png?18

Mortelaro · 22-12-2019 4:24pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Gavs weather was going to discontinue using the CFS Long Range but decided a mixture of the CFS and Beijing CC going forward.

just for site content tbh

I will say tho that the long range for Winter is bang on so far, then again the probability of a mild zonal winter outlook has a much higher chance of working out compared to a wintry winter forecast, and last winter was one of those and failed spectacularly.

Some of these LRF's are forecasting our climactic norm
It's easier to be right when you do that.

Harry Palmr · 23-12-2019 12:34am

Only predict a cold snowy winter if you wish to be laughed at ten times* and congratulated once.

*could be 15 or 20!

Meteorite58 · 25-12-2019 11:35pm

A way off but the models similar in showing areas of LP deepening close to Ireland around next Weds. Lively Jet.

Oscar Bravo · 25-12-2019 11:39pm

Look at that jet. Bound to be a storm sometime next week.

Meteorite58 · 25-12-2019 11:52pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Look at that jet. Bound to be a storm sometime next week.

Looks like a sharp Temperature gradient. Something to keep an eye on.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST