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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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03-12-2019 8:53pm#1
Mod Note
This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).
If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.
Thanks.
Looking quite windy along coasts mainly in the W, NW and N on Thurs and blustery overland. Probably gusting around 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and 60 to 70 km/h overland, possibly a bit more on higher ground.
Heavy rain in the NW and to a lesser extent in the W
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ECM 12Z looking as strong if not stronger on the latest run for Sunday with the strongest winds in the W, SW and strong overland as well .
This has a bit to play out yet but looking like large areas of LP feeding off each other driven by a very strong Jet creating a very large wind field which could produce storm conditions along the coasts, bit early to speculate how high the wind speeds will be overland but for the last couple of runs now the ECM hads been showing at least Orange warning levels and probably high at that.
Currently showing 100 to 130 km/h on coasts, up to 90 to 120 km overland more so coastal counties and 90 to 110km/h overland . Still just Weds but has locked on to this now for a few runs and the other models are starting to show stronger winds especially the ARPEGE.
Also of note is the duration of the high winds being shown, possibly gusting over 90 to 100km/h for 12 to 15hrs along with the higher gusts along W and SW coasts
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ICON 12Z showing the strong winds rising from later Sat evening and showing Kerry getting very strong winds on this run. This too was a jump up in wind speeds on the latest runs.
GFS windy on coasts but not as strong as the other models.
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Windy and blustery at times this week coming. Models showing strong wind potential towards Thurs /Fri
Looks very wet on Tuesday .
Very cold later Tuesday into Weds with wintry precipitation and also wintry precip. possible early Thurs in Northern counties. Very wet again on Thurs.
Wintry looking next weekend also.
Rough wet and cold week in general coming up.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »The Jet very strong towards the end of the week when strong winds are expected. Another one to watch
With a very strong jet and MTs forecast speculating high energy event around the Christmas period. I would not be surprised if we did get something historic after all the criticism of Met Eireanns warning mechanism.0 -
Milder as the fronts go through on Tuesday and then under a cooler air mass with temperatures dropping quickly and the EURO 4 showing plenty of wintry showers. ECM showing a small bit of accumulation for awhile on mountains and possibly the highest hills . Could be a lot of hail showers with Lightning possible, blustery showers, more so along Atlantic Coastal Counties.
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Looking quite windy along Atlantic coasts tomorrow evening into early Fri. The strong wind core showing up on the charts for Fri night looks to pass offshore to the S, still a bit windy in the W/ SW though.
The disturbance to the S of Ireland on Fri evening. Westerly airflow dragging in cold air mass late Fri early Sat. Temperatures Sat only about 3 to 7C
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ICON has intensified the winds for Weds with what looks like a wave whose pressure is falling on approach and during transit up along the W coast.
ECM 06Z stronger in the SW and onto S coasts but nothing extreme on this run, showing the same area of LP or wave much further out to the W and falling pressure also.
ARPEGE windy in the S
GFS weakest of the lot.
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ICON 18Z rowed back on the very strong winds, more like the ARPEGE 12Z now.
ECM 12Z eased back on the strong winds also. Looking like gusting 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and 60 to 80 km/h overland
Showing a lot of rain in the S and SE inot Thurs morning
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Meteorite58 wrote: »ICON has intensified the winds for Weds with what looks like a wave whose pressure is falling on approach and during transit up along the W coast..
That setup would not be good for Dublin Bay at high tide Wednesday night.0 -
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Deep are of LP close to Ireland around next Fri , deepening on approach. ECM not showing a huge wind field and the winds not affecting Ireland on this run but one to keep an eye on.
https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1206336133984116736?s=200 -
ECM has picked up the wind strength again for Weds on the 06Z showing the deepening area of LP move up along the W coast . Showing strong winds overland atm , gusting in general up around 100km/h in Munster . This is the kind of system that can sneak up and catch people out and produce unusually strong winds overland as the system deepens close to land aided by the Jet.
ARPEGE and ICON have also moved up the wind speeds as have the American models.
Is this going to get stronger ?
My own guess ....... possible.
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ECM 12Z eased off on wind speeds again. More like gusting up around 80 to 90 km/h winds overland, bit higher on some coasts gusting up around 100 km/h perhaps. Bit to go yet on this one.
EURO 4 coming into view,
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Earlier in the week there had been signs of a LP / Storm coming close to Ireland. This stayed much lower to the S and today is expected to bring strong winds to N Portugal, N Spain and into W France through the Bay of Biscay. Set to produce strong winds in the Med later especially around Corsica and Sardinia.
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very unusual to see wind charts for Spain! I'll keep an eye on the sea conditions with the Fuengirola webcam. Usually in situations like this, they end up with rain and when it rains there it's usually biblical. They had a few nasty storms and flooding on the costa last winter.
Yes, this one is going to cause problems along a large area of northern Iberia and France. It will then set up a Genoa trough that will bring very strong Maestrale northwesterly to the central Med. I've experienced numerous summer maestrali in northwest Sardinia but a winter one is pretty strong by all accounts.
Note that the isobar spacing below for more southern latitudes is different to what we're used to at our latitude. A wider spacing there gives the same speed as a narrower spacing up here (as shown in the windscale inset).
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Looking cooler again on the ECM 12Z . Showing frontal activity associated with a LP move up the country into cold air early on Stephens morning . Currently showing a big dump of sleet and snow in parts of the southern half of the country ( and rain ! ). But anybody following the charts lately will know that they have been all over the place. But the ECM has been showing the cold air mass as becoming a feature for a few runs now . Something to watch
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ICON showing a different set up with a LP running up off the W coast in far less cold air.
GFS similar to ECM with arrival of rainfall but air mass not as cold late Weds into Thurs. Is showing the Easterlies though.
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ECM has made a big switch more in line with the other models bringing that LP up off the Western coasts but keeping the strongest winds off the coast for the moment anyway. Not as much precipitation also and has lost the snow for the Southern half of the country, showing wintry precipitation the W but very mixed mid level and upper air charts . As reflected by the forecasts big uncertainty with Weds/ Thurs weather at this stage. We can expect more changes.
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Big difference between the models still. ICON looks the strongest by far but bringing the system in much earlier than the others.
ECM, GFS and UKMO has the nearest grouping of positions , the ECM brings the center in over us , keeping the strongest winds off the S.
ARPEGE 12Z has the system much further S with the least effect on us.
Currently the main cluster of models probably showing some coastal counties maybe reaching yellow warning, ICON possibly a bit higher but ICON is the outsider here.
The Center not looking too low atm at an avg of about 988 hPa at it's lowest near Ireland and filling fairly quickly on it's approach.
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Widespread frost in the morning. Icy road conditions in places. Winds on Weds look just below Yellow warning levels generally apart from the risk of a higher gust on exposed coasts.
Winds building from the SW from late afternoon. Getting increasingly milder from the S , mild night Weds into Thurs morning.
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A low has formed along that cold front east of the Azores this morning, and it wasn't forecasted in yesterday's forecast (2nd chart). That could bring a different scenario tonight, with possible enhancement to rainfall levels and stronger winds now further east.
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next Sunday looks incredibly mild with +10 to +12 uppers over Ireland all the way back from the central Atlantic/Azores/Canary Islands. Could easily get up to 14C or even 15C if there was spells of sunshine.
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More and more showing us in a predominately SW/ly mild airflow, Looking through the charts showing any strong winds mainly staying off the W and NW coasts, bit windy along the coast at times but nothing out of the ordinary. One feature showing up is the sign of of low rainfall for the next 5 days. Mist and drizzle and some light rain might be evident at times especially along Atlantic coasts but amounts small. Temperatures on Sunday as Gonzo said looking very mild.
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