Super Typhoon Hagibis threatens Japan

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH COMPACT AND
SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PINHOLE 5NM EYE. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, CONTINUE TO WRAP
VERY TIGHTLY TOWARD THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD BIASES
ENHANCED BY LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES AT
29-30C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS FROM
PGTW AND RCTP. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 150KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS WILL TEMPER THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 125KTS BY TAU 72, JUST BELOW
STY CATEGORY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
AND EVEN SPREAD TO 155NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY HAGIBIS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS
IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER JAPAN. INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL OFFSET
THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 310NM AT
TAU 120; THIS PLUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS LEND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/
PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 011// RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS STY 20W AS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, 6 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KTS, SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, BOTH OF WHICH ARE CORROBORATED BY THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) AND SATCON ESTIMATES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, RESULTING IN A STEADY-STATE INTENSITY OF 140 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD. WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STY 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AFTER THE COMPLETION OF THE CURRENT ERC. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH IS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.

3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VWS, HIGH SST, AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW) IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 145 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM?S OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BE DISRUPTED TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SLOWLY INCREASING TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN, ERODING THE STR AND ALLOWING STY 20W TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE, TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT DOES SO, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WHICH WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A LOW (90 NM) CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN

andymx11 wrote: »

How long before the Ireland game can we guarantee it won’t hit that area?

I assume the path can dramatically change and with that impact where Ireland are playing?