Strong gusts to 130 km/hr will redevelop Thursday after 1500h Mainly Western Counties

Given some of the reports in the thread, I upgraded from level one to level two as of 0755h. Please note my additional comments if you already saw the original post earlier.

The current intensity now supports level one alert, but potentially the very strong winds later tomorrow could justify keeping a level two thread title. The focus of this thread should perhaps begin to shift to that potential later tomorrow, as most of the remaining problems today will likely be with damage already sustained (trees to be cleared etc) and ongoing blustery winds gusting to about 110 km/hr which, where they combine with wintry showers, will make for very poor driving conditions.

Tomorrow, after the gradient lets up slightly for a while, there will be a renewed round of very strong gusts and at times these may become storm force in parts of the northwest then later east Ulster down the Irish Sea, possibly also on land in exposed east coast locations. For a change this may not be as severe on some parts of the west coast. Anyway, further management of this thread today will go over to the forum in general as it is my overnight sleep period here now.

Could a moderator possibly upgrade to level two? Thanks, I was able to edit the thread title but not the level.

Now looking very ominous for this evening in Connacht and west Ulster as a very tight circulation appears to have developed around a 970 mb low dropping south along the outer Hebrides. Buoy K5 near Rockall no longer reports wind speeds but can see a sharp pressure wave signature past three hours and satellite imagery indicates a well-developed northwesterly flow that will hit Donegal Bay around 7 or 8 p.m. with possible gusts to 130 km/hr. This very strong wind event will rapidly sweep inland and through the north central counties to the east coast. Counties from Louth to north Wicklow could see equally strong gusts where not blocked out by higher ground to northwest. It will become very stormy over the Irish Sea around 11 p.m. or midnight.

Updates to follow, buoy M4 should be closely watched as this event will hit there about an hour before reaching the Donegal and Mayo coasts.

Strong level 2 for all regions except possibly east Ulster and Waterford-Carlow-Kilkenny-Laois level 1. Possible localized level 3 conditions in exposed locations. If you're in the main path, assess for level 3 risk by considering topography to your northwest, is there an opening for winds to be funnelled, or are you somewhat sheltered by hills in that direction? Dublin area posters may be more familiar with local effects in a northwest gale as these are rather rare, usually strong winds for Dublin are WSW or sometimes SE.

The polar low feature is around 967 mbs and is located about 50 miles NNE of Malin Head and just to the west of Tiree. Winds are very light in the Hebrides as all the energy of this low is on its western flank. The track will be roughly mid-Derry south-southeast to emerge into Irish Sea near Dundalk. Expect some very strong gusts across Donegal, Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Galway, north Clare, Derry, Fermanagh and Tyrone this evening, shifting rapidly to Cavan, Monaghan, Louth, Westmeath, Longford, Offaly, Meath, Dublin, Kildare by about 11 pm. There is a very strong gradient shown on meso-scale models (one that I just consulted has the track a bit too far east at first, so have adjusted its guidance to actual 18z position).

Some models have failed to pick up this feature (GFS for example shows no separate centre) and so would advise that you go old school and follow the radar, obs and reports as this quickly moves through overnight.

Anyone reading this in Antrim, Down or Armagh be aware that there will be a very sharp cutoff of strong winds (to west of track) and you might catch some strong gusts if located in western portions of those counties while in east, winds will tend to swirl around at rather low speeds until several hours after the low passes, then pick up gradually to 80 km/hr from north.

Max winds will be associated with squally showers and some thunder is possible. Temperatures are going to rise rather than fall so snow line will retreat upslope to about 300m for a time then start coming back down the mountain so to speak.