Storm likely Saturday night 28th Feb - Widespread gusts > 100km/hr

ninebeanrows · 26-02-2015 8:15pm #1

A widespread wind event is increasingly likely late Saturday and into early Sunday as a rapidly deepening depression will form on the left exit of an intense jetstreak.

The storm will deepen markedly on approach and has the potential to bring widespread inland gusts 60kt and gusts in exposed regions above 70kt.

Nothing exceptional is expected but the storm may be notable due to its southerly track bringing more populated regions into its path.

Also of note is it is likely to take a direct path overland at its most developmental phase with lots of energy and rapid pressure falls, some significant wind gusts may occur as it exits the Irish east coast.

A quick post here as busy but just to highlight the risk....

EC @ 48

ECM1-48.GIF?26-0

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 8:20pm

Yep, while the Sunday night low has dissolved from the GFS, the low on Saturday looks more interesting now on the ECM.

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 8:29pm

This ECM view is a bit better.

ninebeanrows · 26-02-2015 8:33pm

Sustained winds near 45kt inland. Not a common occurrence

maquiladora · 26-02-2015 10:56pm

18Z HIRLAM shows storm force winds on the west coast, inland gales.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

Smidge · 26-02-2015 11:49pm

Will this be a mainly coastal SW storm?

Harry Palmr · 27-02-2015 12:12am

Met E doesn't seem too excited by this, just another wintery blow.

typhoony · 27-02-2015 12:15am

level 1 seems about right, thankfully considering its track it doesnt turn into a bomb. I would wait though until tomorrow mornings chart updates just in case

Oscar Bravo · 27-02-2015 12:25am

Met eireann will have an upgrade on the 0530 update on the website and at 0755 on radio 1. it will be once again nasty along parts of the west coast late Saturday/early sunday. mace head no doubt recording a fairly high gust yet again!

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 12:32am

Violent storm force on the west coast on the 18Z EURO4, though the model is prone to overdoing things a little.

ninebeanrows · 27-02-2015 7:07am

Morning guidance pushing storm a bit further north.

Would hold gust calls from yesterday put place risk zone further north.

It will be a rapidly developing storm as it crosses the country.

A good swathe of 60kt+ gusts, exposed areas to 70kt+

Strongest gusts may be as the storm exits into the North Channel Sat night.

Latest EC @ 48hrs

ECM1-48.GIF?27-12

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 9:20am

A downgrade due to the track shift on the ECM this morning. The tightest gradient now brushes up along the west-northwest-north coasts rather than pushing further inland as the model showed yesterday. It's also a bit weaker.

Still time for some changes, and would still bring gales inland for a time in the parts of the west/northwest/north I think. But a bit less interesting than it looked yesterday.

weisses · 27-02-2015 9:37am

Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 9:56am

weisses wrote: »

Not even a level 1 so ... if that downgrade continues

As it stands, Met Eireann would probably still issue an orange warning for the west coast if the ECM verified. But yeah further changes are possible.

weisses · 27-02-2015 11:16am

GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 11:29am

weisses wrote: »

GFS showing 80 - 85 km/h winds max for Saturday ?! ..

GFS doesn't model these type of lows very well accurately. Better off looking at ECM/HIRLAM.

06Z HIRLAM shows it as mainly a west/northwest coast affair. Force 9 to Force 10. Nothing unusual for those areas and could downgrade further if it tracks further north again. Still would probably be an orange warning for those areas.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

weisses · 27-02-2015 11:32am

maquiladora wrote: »

GFS doesn't model these type of lows very well accurately. Better off looking at ECM/HIRLAM.

Thanks ... Just picking up on reading/interpreting the charts lately ...

eastmayo · 27-02-2015 2:27pm

Met eireann have issued an orange wind alert for tomorrow eve

maquiladora · 27-02-2015 3:54pm

eastmayo wrote: »

Met eireann have issued an orange wind alert for tomorrow eve

Yeah, as expected given what the HIRLAM is showing. Less severe than it looked yesterday and more confined to coastal areas, but still stormy for a time on the west/northwest coast.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo and Sligo

Extremely windy period from Saturday afternoon through to early Sunday morning.
Southwest veering west winds will reach mean speeds 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 110 km/h., but gusts of up to 130km/h, are likely on exposed coasts and headlands for a time in the evening and early night.
Issued:
Friday 27 February 2015 11:00
Valid:
Saturday 28 February 2015 14:00 to Sunday 01 March 2015 06:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Longford, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Westmeath, Meath, Roscommon, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Very windy condition from Saturday afternoon through to late Saturday night
Southwest veering west winds will reach mean speeds 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of over 90km/h., but up to 110km/h. in exposed areas.
Issued:
Friday 27 February 2015 11:00
Valid:
Saturday 28 February 2015 14:00 to Sunday 01 March 2015 02:00

Oneiric 3 · 27-02-2015 11:50pm

GFS & GSM not making much of this away from the NW, though the ECM & HIRLAM suite continue to hint at very gusty weather on a more widespread scale, but with the NW bearing the brunt.

FWVT · 28-02-2015 12:00am

Those Vedur ECM wind charts posted earlier show wind at 100 m, not 10 m, so they can look meaner than reality down at our level.

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 12:30am

Orange marine wind warning issued 2300
Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

Southwesterly gales or strong gales developing on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea early Saturday afternoon, soon veering westerly and increasing to storm force on coasts from Loop Head to Rossan Point to Carlingford Lough.
Issued:
Friday 27 February 2015 23:00

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 1:43am

Impressive dry intrusion forecast with this system. One not to underestimate. Sting jet like feature a possibility

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 7:39am

Certaingly stingjet potential in northwest later.

Euro4 showing sustained 100km winds brushing coast latet,,,, awaiting EC

maquiladora · 28-02-2015 11:27am

Looks like its downgraded a bit again since last night on the HIRLAM. Gales more restricted to coastal areas rather than getting further inland.

Should still reach storm force on the northwest coast for a while though.

http://www.ilmateenistus.ee/ilm/prognoosid/mudelprognoosid/euroopa/?lang=en#layers/tuul10ms,tuul10mb,presmslp,presmslv

Current sat :

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 2:26pm

Getting bleak now at Westport harbour

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 2:43pm

A short phase of quite violent winds to reach the north-west coast this evening

- It will really ramp up quickly in the next few hours.

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 3:19pm

1300 reports , gust of 52 knots at Belmullet and 986. 1400 reports pressure now down to 983 hpa

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 4:19pm

1500 reports , Belmullet now down to 981hpa

Meteorite58 · 28-02-2015 4:45pm

Wind picking up on the North Kerry Coast, 10 min avg 27 kph, gust 58 kph SW. Will be out of the strongest winds, doubt I will get gusts above 80 kph here.

Feeling extremely mild at 12.2C

Overcast and misty on and off

Bar 989.98mb Falling Rapidly

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 5:20pm

A very rapid increase in the winds here in Castlebar but extremely mild here at the moment at 12 degrees. Meanwhile on the 1600 reports Belmullet is now down to 980hpa with gusts being reported at nearly all of the met stations.

corsav6 · 28-02-2015 5:27pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A very rapid increase in the winds here in Castlebar but extremely mild here at the moment at 12 degrees. Meanwhile on the 1600 reports Belmullet is now down to 980hpa with gusts being reported at nearly all of the met stations.

Just left Castlebar 15 mins ago, fairly blustery at the windmills on the old Glen island rd. Some strong gusts just outside Newport now.
Will this be an all night event or will it pass before midnight?

redsteveireland · 28-02-2015 5:28pm

Getting windy here, some decent gusts.

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 5:39pm

Corsav6, the worst of the gusts should be out of the castlebar /Newport area by around 10-11pm, although it will be a blustery night. heres the latest view from space showing the culprit taking shape just off the west coast

Dollseyes · 28-02-2015 5:46pm

I'm just outside Ballina town and I nearly got swept off my feet.. Sweet Jesus she's rough out there.

corsav6 · 28-02-2015 5:55pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Corsav6, the worst of the gusts should be out of the castlebar /Newport area by around 10-11pm, although it will be a blustery night. heres the latest view from space showing the culprit taking shape just off the west coast

Thanks for that.
Gusts certainly getting stronger now, no window benders yet but heading that way.
10 or 11pm is not so bad, at least we can sleep upstairs tonight.

Edit: lights now flickering, there's a longer gap between gusts at the moment but the gusts are more intense.

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 6:20pm

1700 reports - and just when you need it the Belmullet station has gone down! elsewhere Mace head has a gust of 59 knots.

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 6:23pm

Donegal Airport would be the place to be at 7pm

Xenji · 28-02-2015 6:26pm

Just back from Westport, and it was very wild out there, power is gone in a lot of areas around the town as well.

Oneiric 3 · 28-02-2015 6:27pm

5pm analysis:

squarecircles · 28-02-2015 6:27pm

Oscar Bravo · 28-02-2015 6:29pm

over 2000 without power in Westport

squarecircles · 28-02-2015 6:35pm

I was wondering why my wifi wasn't working when I was uploading my video,then I realised the power is out here in louisburgh,only 13 % power left in my iPad. Farewell.

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 6:36pm

Belmullet has been knocked offline by the storm...

Not really! but no reports at 1700.. Mace Head peaking at 59kt

ninebeanrows · 28-02-2015 6:41pm

Breeze even picking up here in the big Smoke

Pangea · 28-02-2015 7:10pm

Wind has arrived here in Donegal. Getting rough.

corsav6 · 28-02-2015 7:20pm

Xenji wrote: »

Just back from Westport, and it was very wild out there, power is gone in a lot of areas around the town as well.

I was wondering where you were Xenji, it wouldn't be a proper storm thread without you and Oscar Bravo

.
Its calmed down a bit here in newport, still very blustery but the gusts aren't massive. I expect to see some stronger gusts again before the night is out.
Lights flickered a couple of times about a half hour ago but nothing since.

Supercell · 28-02-2015 7:22pm

Wind rapidly increasing here.

Xenji · 28-02-2015 7:22pm

corsav6 wrote: »

I was wondering where you were Xenji, it wouldn't be a proper storm thread without you and Oscar Bravo .
Its calmed down a bit here in newport, still very blustery but the gusts aren't massive. I expect to see some stronger gusts again before the night is out.
Lights flickered a couple of times about a half hour ago but nothing since.

Lights are flickering now in Castlebar, could be candlelit pints tonight

maquiladora · 28-02-2015 7:24pm

Peak winds will be over the next hour or so in the northwest, then rapidly calming down from around 8pm onwards.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

Shiraz 4.99 · 28-02-2015 7:32pm

Crazy wind here near Carlow. Bins gone over, trampoline is on it's way.

Storm likely Saturday night 28th Feb - Widespread gusts > 100km/hr

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