Possible Storm Tuesday 17th April

Su Campu · 12-04-2012 8:48pm #1

It looks like next Monday a deep depression will form over the near Atlantic and move close to or over Ireland during Tuesday. Its exact path and depth are still unsure but it should be enough to bring some closure to a pretty benign couple of months' weather.

The current setup shows a deep trough over the Canadian Maritimes and a 1030 hPa Azores anticyclone, both causing a warm humid southeasterly flow over the western Atlantic. The jet is strengthening, and a surface low is now forming and will move towards Iceland over the weekend. The key feature is an upper shortwave trough following from behind, which will tighten the gradient further and form a 180 kt jet streak late on Sunday and will cause a second surface low to form and deepen rapidly during Monday. Depending on the rate of occlusion of this low, it will dive southeastwards and will pass very close to or over Ireland during Monday night and Tuesday.

A wet and windy day is in store, with strongest winds probably on the storms western flank. It's not worth noting exact details at the moment but it is one to keep an eye on over the next few days.

The GFS paints the most severe picture, but I would imagine it will step this down slightly in future runs. But it looks like the start of a much more mobile Atlantic phase.

attachment.php?attachmentid=200259&stc=1&d=1334260028

attachment.php?attachmentid=200259&stc=1&d=1334260028

Redsunset · 12-04-2012 9:02pm

[IMG][/img]

Good model agreement on evolution so far.

Cheers for that analysis Su, here's to a more exciting period in what has been somewhat of a bore fest. No downgrades please.:D

Iancar29 · 12-04-2012 9:13pm

Looks Interesting , looking to the 18z now

Met Éireanns take on the situation.

MONDAY : Heavy rain and strengthening southerly winds will spread from the Atlantic, turning to sleet for a time in parts of the north. Clearer weather, with scattered showers, will follow on Monday night, with winds veering southwest to west.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY : Cool and showery, some of the showers heavy and thundery, but there will be some sunny spells also. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds on Tuesday, with a risk of gales off Atlantic coasts, becoming moderate northerly by Wednesday.

Harps · 13-04-2012 3:56pm

Surprised there's not more posts here, looking like an interesting set up, GFS has the low passing right over the northern half of the country

ECMWF has it stalling and deepening to our west before swinging south easterly

gbee · 13-04-2012 4:03pm

Harps wrote: »

Surprised there's not more posts here, looking like an interesting set up,

I'm glued but have nothing to add.

pauldry · 13-04-2012 10:39pm

The worst of this storm will be to the extreme West with just strong winds elsewhere. Heavy rain too for a while but then back to the sunshine and showers set up.

Birdnuts · 14-04-2012 8:50am

Significant upgrade of the winds for tuesday on GFS and ECM this morning with the latter hinting at a repeat performance for next weekend

Iancar29 · 14-04-2012 12:54pm

Su Campu · 14-04-2012 9:35pm

During tomorrow the surface low develops a slack 1012-1015 hPa centre in the western Atlantic. By this time tomorrow we will see it starting to develop explosively under the right rear quadrant of that potent 180+ knots jet streak, with central pressure falling around >35 hPa in 24 hours to Monday evening.

The ECMWF is most severe and has it attaining around 965 hPa off to our northwest by 06Z Tuesday morning, while the others are around 975 hPa. In any case, all seem pretty agreed that it from then on its centre will move southeastwards over the western half of the country, bringing gales to western areas.

Looks like nothing too extraordinary by the time it reaches us, though its winds, while still gale force in sea areas, will have eased slightly by then, with the strongest gradient off to our southwest. We could see 20-30 mm or rain in the western half of the country, with more like 10 mm in the east.

One to watch, but nothing drastic unless you're a ship.

Nabber · 14-04-2012 10:01pm

Which is a more likely out come? 975 hPa or 965 hPa?
Rain and wind anyways

Deep Easterly · 15-04-2012 12:41am

18z paints a similar picture, with strongest of the winds along the west coast:

Exact track is far from certain though as has been said so defo something to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.

Iancar29 · 15-04-2012 5:12pm

Looks like the severity of the winds has dropped a bit more south .

I thinks its safe to say that it IS going to be a stormy Tuesday Now.

The rain will be gladly accepted in areas of the east.

Harps · 15-04-2012 5:38pm

First decent storm in the past few years that isn't going to track north of Donegal, should be an interesting day for the south west coast

Oddly the 12Z GFS has an almost identical storm happening for the second half of the week!

Tuesday

Saturday

goat2 · 15-04-2012 6:13pm

what time is this storm supposed to be hitting on us, and what counties are going to be worst hit

Iancar29 · 15-04-2012 6:31pm

goat2 wrote: »

what time is this storm supposed to be hitting on us, and what counties are going to be worst hit

If You look closely at the charts the answer is there :rolleyes:
Things could change slightly still over the next run or 2 though..

Tuesday evening , the south and southwest.

Su Campu · 15-04-2012 9:19pm

Whatever about here, western France and northern and northwestern Spain should be in for some unseasonable weather on Wednesday and Thursday as this low moves through Biscay. We'll see some coastal events over the two days, plus some good snowfalls over the northern Spanish mountains.

Iancar29 · 16-04-2012 12:52pm

301836_435194099830310_175249952491394_1942789_144747743_n.jpg

Tis on its way! ...

Hail and thunder is likely with this low and it makes its way across the country 2moro night into wednesday..

ANyone for a guess of the total 24hr rainfall from 00.00 tonight?... Ill go for 25 mm at Bellmullet

I'd love to see the Hermoine model run for the front making its way across the country!

tylercollins · 16-04-2012 12:58pm

Any upgrades or downgrades on this? Considering taking a half day tomorrow to head to the coast with a camera.

Iancar29 · 16-04-2012 1:25pm

tylercollins wrote: »

Any upgrades or downgrades on this? Considering taking a half day tomorrow to head to the coast with a camera.

Nothing dramatic man... at the moment its kerry coast that will be most effected . its the rain and possible thunder that ill be interested in

mickger844posts · 16-04-2012 1:44pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Nothing dramatic man... at the moment its kerry coast that will be most effected . its the rain and possible thunder that ill be interested in

Agreed, More of a rain and possible thunder event than wind event for most but even at that nothing special or out of the ordinary i feel.

tylercollins · 16-04-2012 2:00pm

Kerry LOL Yeah I think I'll give this a skip then considering it's at the bottom of the island and I'm at the top!!

Su Campu · 16-04-2012 8:27pm

Stórhöfði, in southern Iceland, reported max sustained winds of 28 m/s (55 knots) and gust of 34 m/s (66 knots) this afternoon. This sustained wind is around 20-25 knots stronger than this afternoon's Hirlam was reckoning for that area (the location is the small island just off the south coast, to the left of centre).

There are understandably not many ship reports from the North Atlantic this evening, but hopefully if there are some braving it then we'll get a report off them at 00Z.

The 12Z ECMWF has some 50-knot vectors near the southwest tomorrow, but it will be interesting to see if the 00Z run takes into account the stronger winds reported this afternoon. The M6 and M3 buoy reports will be interesting tomorrow.

ninebeanrows · 16-04-2012 9:25pm

It is a really good looking system.

If it was to cross Ireland 100 miles further north there would be much more discussion on it and some wild weather.

It would be a eye catching system even in the middle of winter.

Take a look at her.

http://www.sat24.com/

Diamond Dust · 16-04-2012 9:31pm

Starting to get a bit windy here in Kerry.

Are we still due to get the worst of it here?

ninebeanrows · 16-04-2012 9:33pm

Diamond Dust wrote: »

Starting to get a bit windy here in Kerry.

Are we still due to get the worst of it here?

Yes tomorrow evening you could get gusts to 60MPH or more in exposed places.

Diamond Dust · 16-04-2012 9:57pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yes tomorrow evening you could get gusts to 60MPH or more in exposed places.

Thanks, driving home from work so could be tricky

Pangea · 16-04-2012 10:06pm

Getting windy here now, I suppose its a non event for the NW?

Wild Bill · 16-04-2012 10:20pm

Getting a bit windy here even! :eek:

Su Campu · 16-04-2012 10:25pm

It's one right mucky night at Cork Airport, with light rain and fog.

EICK 162100Z 19014KT 0500 R17/0500D R35/0550N -RA FG VV001 10/10 Q1007 NOSIG=

Visibility currently 500 metres, was 300 m at 1930Z.

pauldry · 16-04-2012 10:28pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Stórhöfði, in southern Iceland, reported max sustained winds of 28 m/s (55 knots) and gust of 34 m/s (66 knots) this afternoon. This sustained wind is around 20-25 knots stronger than this afternoon's Hirlam was reckoning for that area (the location is the small island just off the south coast, to the left of centre).

There are understandably not many ship reports from the North Atlantic this evening, but hopefully if there are some braving it then we'll get a report off them at 00Z.

The 12Z ECMWF has some 50-knot vectors near the southwest tomorrow, but it will be interesting to see if the 00Z run takes into account the stronger winds reported this afternoon. The M6 and M3 buoy reports will be interesting tomorrow.

Anyone think that iceland looks a bit like a cooked chicken

Anyways whirlpools moving down

strong winds and rain ill do a running total for sligo and report back this time tomorrow. 1mm so far

16-04-2012 10:30pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Getting a bit windy here even! :eek:

here too , dry as a bone though.

M.T. Cranium · 16-04-2012 10:34pm

There are some subtle differences in track forecasts but would be surprised if wind gusts stronger than 50 kts show up anywhere north or east of a line from Mace Head to Limerick to Waterford and the best chance as many have said is in Kerry. However, given the number of times that storms have shown up 50-100 miles north of model predicted paths when it leads to downgrades, perhaps this case will flip-flop the other way.

In the meantime, expect some moderately strong gusts to 45-50 kts with the occlusion feature that is about to be pushed across Ireland tonight. This may weaken slightly with time, then we await the onset of the stronger winds of the low centre but a wide swath of the country may then be into the situation of awaiting a calm period as the low moves in overhead on a southeast track. Places north of this track should see a backing wind (SW to S to SE then somewhat variable settling into NE or N later) -- this should apply to Donegal and almost certainly to most of Ulster and Leinster, even some central inland districts. Places along the track of the low are just likely to see a dying southwest wind going calm then NE to N in the wake, gradually rising back to moderate levels.

Although the discussion may make it appear that Mayo, Galway and Clare are in this zone where calm winds may develop, some western parts of Mayo and Galway and some southern parts of Clare may find themselves in a zone of stronger and continuing SW to W to NW gales that we expect for Kerry and nearby parts of the southwest.

Should be interesting to track, 18z GFS could give us any indication of a northward shift.

Wild Bill · 16-04-2012 10:41pm

Jake1 wrote: »

here too , dry as a bone though.

Ditto.

But look at the radar!

Mega rain moving in from the West - now 30 miles past
the Galway/Limerick/Cork line and heading our way at 30mph :eek:

sunbabe08 · 16-04-2012 10:47pm

:eek: sweet mother of god, only seeing the radar now. mega rain on thee way and thunderstorms (according to weatherchannel) for cork tomorrow

vibe666 · 16-04-2012 10:50pm

already getting pretty breezy here in blanchardstown and some spits of rain.

radar looks like we might actually get a moderate battering overnight, so not looking forward to the baby getting repeatedly woken up. :eek:

Deep Easterly · 16-04-2012 10:54pm

Mod rain here now falling at a rate of 4.3mm/ph. Mean 12kts SSW.

Bicycle · 16-04-2012 10:57pm

Its picked up significantly here in Limerick City suburbs in the last 20 minutes. Rain banging off the roof and a low growl of a wind.

Wild Bill · 16-04-2012 11:04pm

Bicycle wrote: »

Its picked up significantly here in Limerick City suburbs in the last 20 minutes. Rain banging off the roof and a low growl of a wind.

I can see your growl on the radar - nothing here yet bar Great Expectations.

Diamond Dust · 16-04-2012 11:07pm

Really strong wind here in Kerry and heavy rain,

Iancar29 · 16-04-2012 11:09pm

" HI RAIN! "

524395_10150813487311718_631736717_12319663_521175107_n.jpg

Bicycle · 16-04-2012 11:11pm

One of those red bits is over my bedroom roof

(Just to clarify my bedroom - and interestingly the rest of my house :0) - is on de nortside of suburban Limerick!!)

Deep Easterly · 16-04-2012 11:28pm

Some pretty serious looking returns over the mid-west region at the moment:

8.6mm here so far since the rain started and rain rate increasing to 8.2mm/ph. First decent drop of rain since I can't remember when!

dexter647 · 16-04-2012 11:45pm

Just started to rain moderately here now...My garden is about to have a long overdue drink:)

Harps · 16-04-2012 11:45pm

Pouring down here as well with a strong wind, first time in what feels like months that we've had some real rain

A few pixels of 30-40mm/hr showing up on raintoday over the mid-west at the moment!

Bicycle · 16-04-2012 11:52pm

The weather has upped gear again over the last 10 minutes or so. Getting quite squally and pounding rain. The light tunnel in the ensuite sounds as if someone is pouring gravel all over it.

The rain is beating hard on the West facing window of my daughter's bedroom.

Stay safe, warm and dry peoples.

ninebeanrows · 16-04-2012 11:56pm

Appears to be ratcheting up on its front edge aswell

Quite a defined edge

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Iancar29 · 16-04-2012 11:57pm

Still good potential for some thundery showers tomorrow. Cape Near 450 in the west and broad -1 LI . SOme water spouts on the west coast maybe?

http://lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/hir_spout_eur60.png

pauldry · 17-04-2012 12:06am

very gusty in Sligo town with 5mm(total 6mm) of rain in the last hour. A squally burst to start but just windy and rainy now. Not pleasant to be out at all and I would say no one is out. Went for run earlier at 9 and it was grand. Funny nhow it changes so dramatically.

Interesting week of weather on the way with showers wind and cloud formations.

mountainy man · 17-04-2012 12:08am

Heaviest rain that I've seen here in quite a while with added hail also, lost mobile internet for a while as the heaviest bit went over. Clare and Galway seems to be having a good doing!

Sar_Bear · 17-04-2012 12:11am

Pretty stormy in Nenagh, Tipperary right now

eimearos · 17-04-2012 12:12am

Very gusty and lashing rain here in Waterford the last few hours

Possible Storm Tuesday 17th April

Comments