Forcast was wrong

darkman2 · 08-01-2011 4:46am #1

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

_whiskers · 08-01-2011 5:27am

I forgive you! But if it happens again I'm afraid you will be fired... Out of a canon and into the sun :P

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2011 6:08am

I think I had roughly the same error in my forecast today. Looking at how the system evolved, the forecast problem was all related to where the rain-snow transition would occur, the models did fairly well on guiding the forecasts as to timing and intensity of precip. I notice that Casement reported 10 mms yesterday, Mullingar 3 mms (some of which was no doubt melted snow). Those are close to the values predicted by the guidance.

From my own point of view, the rain-snow line stayed well to the west of counties such as Kilkenny, Laois and Carlow, despite the lack of any southerly winds. Some warmth appeared to mix in from the east through Dublin and Meath. This was just enough to keep the temperatures and dew points above the critical values. In these marginal situations, once snow starts falling, it tends to stay mostly snow. I think this was how it played out further west where people did get the snow expected.

The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.

Caitlinn · 08-01-2011 6:10am

Don't worry about it, Met Eireann tends to be wrong most of the time.

H2UMrsRobinson · 08-01-2011 9:15am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

DM2 - I love your forecast threads, you put it out there and always on the optimistic side.

It's not your fault it didn't snow BTW - I don't think you possess that kind of power (no offence)

wyndham · 08-01-2011 9:17am

Snowing in Dublin 1 a few minutes ago. Got a dusting. Not enough for a snowball yet.

Caitriona · 08-01-2011 10:15am

Got some in Louth overnight - you could definitely make a snowball! Not disruptive levels but everything's definitely white.

gonker · 08-01-2011 10:22am

Slight dusting in Drogheda, have to head out now hope roads are ok. Was funny seeing the snow ploughs and gritters driving up and down the roads in the lashing rain last night and I mean it was pouring from the heavens

.

Rebelbrowser · 08-01-2011 10:59am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Thought this apology was a joke until I saw the responses. From many posters here (sadly not I) there was lots of snow around yesterday. You called that about 6 days ago. That's very impressive. I have already posted congrats to you, BB and MTC for your early calls on this on the other thread (before I saw this). Keep up the good work if you ask me.

rhonin · 08-01-2011 11:00am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significantt snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Absolutely no need to apologise. You've got it right a hell of lot times too. Don't be disheartened and keep up the good work

Edit : some places got snow and you did forecast that a couple of days ago.

Deep Easterly · 08-01-2011 11:03am

This was always a tricky one to call and in fairness no forecaster got it spot on perfect. It did snow in a lot of places yesterday evening though esp mid-west and west/north midlands. Weather and forecasting the weather is what we enjoy, probably because it is so utterly and completely beyond our control but at least we try!

jambofc · 08-01-2011 11:04am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

dont think you were to far of the mark dm2,was a lot of snow in localised area's,as you no nearly impossible to be correct all the time

08-01-2011 11:21am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

In fairness,snow did eventually fall in Dublin right to the coast albeit after the bulk of the precip was a deluge of rain and said snow was a sugar dusting..
The problem was the mixing continued right through to midnight and beyond especially down my way.
-2 850's really do need the kind of freeze up we had pre Xmas and late november to and I'm coining a phrase here potentise a native cold pool enough when theres no surface freezing air advecting in from elsewhere.
We are an island so if you get up the wind,you import the air over the sea eventually.
I noticed yesterday morning here,the minute the breeze from the NE kicked in,we had irish sea dewpoints of +3 and 4c straight away.

Thats the lesson to be learned here.
I've noticed that one poster has commended MT for always being optimistic,I presume they mean in forecasting snow.
You can't be optimistic with snow forecasts,you have to be realistic in an island situation perched in waters that are naturally modified by that gulf stream thing.

The other lesson is obviously to use local knowledge,this being the perfect lesson,to over rule model guidance that snow is going to fall when you think yourself it's 50:50 or less.
It would be a good idea to introduce percentage risks of something happening and to explain the reasoning.
I fell fowl of the models 2 days ago by trusting the Nae which overplayed things considerably.
I should have known better.

Ahorseofaman · 08-01-2011 11:39am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

rubbish darkman, if every poster opened a thread when a forecast was wrong we would fill the front page.You can only go on the available info and it changes all the time.I find your posts interesting and informative so keep up the good work.Same goes to all the other regular forecasters(you know who you are)

lucernarian · 08-01-2011 11:40am

I got a call wrong when I alerted a friend in Kilkenny to the likelihood of heavy snow throughout yesterday, and I based this on what had happened with a roughly similar situation during the final couple of days of 2009 (along with the model guidance of course)

There was one aspect which strongly concerned me in various forecasts for snow, and that was the Rain/snowfall predictive charts of weatheronline. I'm looking at you Weathercheck:p Note the lack of "wet snow" or "sleet". However I believe the model is forecasting "snow that will ordinarily stick" in any case. That doesn't change the fact with those charts that the prediction doesn't suddenly transition from rain to snow and resolution becomes very important when *everything* is marginal over a wider stretch of area.

The pivoting as forecast suggested that the upper polar maritime air was approaching the front from the NW than the NE and that was never going to give the southeast a chance in displacing that mucky modified "native air".

I definitely wouldn't say your forecasts were out of kilter though! Many places did see snow, INCLUDING on the east coast at low levels if the reports I got from Louth are correct. I'll find out later today for myself. You don't have to kowtow on this one darkman2;)

DOCARCH · 08-01-2011 11:43am

rhonin wrote: »

Absolutely no need to apologise. You've got it right a hell of lot times too. Don't be disheartened and keep up the good work

+1

Dempo1 · 08-01-2011 11:52am

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Actually met eireann & the AA gave hysterical forecasts yesterday morning. I was up early for a spin to the airport, set out from Tullamore and drove up the M4. Jeez, listening to the repeated forecasts on the drive up (some of which specifically dealt with area's i was driving through), i could not help but think the forecasts were repeats from prior to Christmas.

Heavy frost (none to be seen), black ice (M4 was perfect), Indeed heavy snow fall (not a drop) all for casted on my route.

Later i was dreaded Icy roads and frost on my return trip to Portlaoise and again nothing to be seen. Indeed it was not until 6.30pm last night when it started to snow!

Bizarre albeit admittedly it was bitter cold yesterday afternoon!

irishmotorist · 08-01-2011 12:13pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all....

I think apologies are out of order and not necessary!

In the first post on your other thread, you said "there was a small risk of significant snow during Friday and Saturday". In the ensuing discussion, nobody could say with any certainty what would happen. Even while the precipitation was falling it was marginal what would happen next. So to even see that it was on it's way, I take my hat off to you sir! And, of course, to all of the other forecasters.

Thank YOU for your part in making this interesting and sharing the knowledge.

thetonynator · 08-01-2011 12:18pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.

Had a look there now, nearest decent hill (Brandon hill in graignamanagh to the east of me) doesnt appear to have any snow. It's elevation is around 450m asl, although i cant see the top clearly so there may be something there. Blackstairs MT. (around 650m asl) has snow, but i cant see the snowline from here. Going by brandon, it wasnt quite as marginal as i thought.

TheFairy · 08-01-2011 12:24pm

Any post on here that alerts people to even the possibility of extreme weather has to be applauded. Sure if you get it wrong its no big shakes, and if you get it right then you have helped those that read the forecast/warning and all those that these people advised in the real world.

No apology wanted/needed or warranted!

Not · 08-01-2011 12:29pm

I have to say the experts, ME, are very reliable when a relatively widespread disruptive snow event is forecast days in advance. If they are forecasting a strong likelihood of it to happen, it rarely happens (at least as defined - I know there was some snow in places last night, but was it widespread and disruptive?). Last night looks like the latest example of this stunningly consistant record. So if the experts can't nail it, what hope for anyone else..

Having said that, I'm looking out on snow coveredpocked ground in Terenure in south Dublin. Not 5 cm in depth, but maybe 5 flakes per square cm.

Min · 08-01-2011 12:44pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think I had roughly the same error in my forecast today. Looking at how the system evolved, the forecast problem was all related to where the rain-snow transition would occur, the models did fairly well on guiding the forecasts as to timing and intensity of precip. I notice that Casement reported 10 mms yesterday, Mullingar 3 mms (some of which was no doubt melted snow). Those are close to the values predicted by the guidance.

From my own point of view, the rain-snow line stayed well to the west of counties such as Kilkenny, Laois and Carlow, despite the lack of any southerly winds. Some warmth appeared to mix in from the east through Dublin and Meath. This was just enough to keep the temperatures and dew points above the critical values. In these marginal situations, once snow starts falling, it tends to stay mostly snow. I think this was how it played out further west where people did get the snow expected.

The guidance values for snowfall were marginal (thickness was about 535 dms and 850 mb temp about -2 C). I had noted that on the guidance but figured that the trapped cold air and the heavy rates of precip might swing the balance over to snow. It will be interesting if people in that cold-rain zone have a chance to check out snow elevations on their local hills on Saturday, if it clears up a bit. Would imagine it was snowing not far above the general elevation of populated areas.

We'll have lots more chances to discuss and forecast snow, I would think.

Hi MT, here in north Kilkenny we got snow on the hills, it started around 9pm after a lot of rain/sleet.
I would say from looking around and how we have snow, albeit not much lying on the ground - enough to have white fields, that the snow line is slightly above 200m.

123balltv · 08-01-2011 12:47pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Your only human no bother

Mother Nature truly knows the weather she's the only one

nacho libre · 08-01-2011 12:54pm

once again this proves the greatest snowfalls usually occur when they are not expected- when the situation is so marginal that your instinct tells you it will be rain but it's the rare ocassion when the balance is just tipped in our favour.
anyone who follows weather will not get annoyed at some making a prediction that turns out to be wrong given the difficulty of snowfall to occur on this island. it's only the blow-ins into the weather forum who do that sort of thing.
the only thing to be annoyed about is being surrounded by warm water!

bbbbb · 08-01-2011 12:56pm

It was raining quite heavily here (dublin 3) yesterday evening, and it was a cold night (frost on roofs, cars), so I can't see how it didn't snow!

08-01-2011 1:37pm

I'd agree there was no need for this thread and no need for dm2 to be embarrassed.
It took balls to call it.This is only the 2nd thread of his out of dozens where there was a wrongish outcome and besides a slimmed down area did get a snow covering so that wasn't too bad.
The only thing that went wrong was the extent of the effect of the irish sea northeasterly ruining snow.

Snow did not fall in a good part of East leinster untill the wind changed direction.
There was no surface air freezing feed and dewpoints over the irish sea remained positive.
This fed into a lot of leinster and east munster.
It wasn't shifted from wexford,waterford or most of wicklow untill the precip went away ,it was so powerfull in fact.

@mt
The snow line here in south wicklow was above 2000ft asl .
Croghan mt has no snow from last night.

bcmf · 08-01-2011 1:56pm

FWIW here is what happened almost on the Coast in North County Dublin (Balbriggan) yest
From 16.30 to approx 22.30 yest it lashed rain. Stopped for a sort bit then snowed moderatley for an hour or so. Poked my head out the door at approx 02.30 and it has stopped with a dusting of snow on cars,grass, walls etc but not on the roads.From 10 this morning everything seemed to have frozen solid with a further freshish dusting sitting on top of it. Dont have any hills of note round here BUT can see the Mournes and certainly from what I can tell from the distance is that they have a good covering from fairly low down.

08-01-2011 1:58pm

Well we certainly got snow here in meath anyway, paths are awfully slippy too

bcmf · 08-01-2011 2:00pm

..... oh and btw DM and MT.....for future reference...you are NEVER WRONG...JUST NOT QUITE RIGHT.:D

derekon · 08-01-2011 2:47pm

bcmf wrote: »

FWIW here is what happened almost on the Coast in North County Dublin (Balbriggan) yest
From 16.30 to approx 22.30 yest it lashed rain. Stopped for a sort bit then snowed moderatley for an hour or so. Poked my head out the door at approx 02.30 and it has stopped with a dusting of snow on cars,grass, walls etc but not on the roads.From 10 this morning everything seemed to have frozen solid with a further freshish dusting sitting on top of it. Dont have any hills of note round here BUT can see the Mournes and certainly from what I can tell from the distance is that they have a good covering from fairly low down.

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

08-01-2011 2:49pm

Dont be beating yourself up DM, you posted in good faith. Better to be forewarned and prepared anyway just in case.
Keep on keeping on

bcmf · 08-01-2011 2:50pm

derekon wrote: »

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

Well from the road from Man'O'War to Balrothery there is a section where you have a fantastic view of The Mournes and from the back car Park from said pub you have a great view of Wicklow Mtns.

Maxamber · 08-01-2011 2:54pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Very disappointing for you and I sympathise but, for myself and living where we do, over 300m asl near Roundwood/Laragh, I'd MUCH rather expect snow and not have it than vice versa. And after the rain it froze really hard here, temps down to -4: you can imagine the roads early this morning! These threads are such a help, so you've no need to apologise at all!

lucernarian · 08-01-2011 3:03pm

@M.T. Cranium:

Drogheda itself and immediate areas has little more than a dusting, with snow collected in tufts of grass. From about 100 metres asl and higher, there's slush/snow on roads where cars haven't driven on them and there's snow generally on grass and trees. I'm at about 140 metres asl or thereabouts and there's even somewhat more snow at this level. About an inch of lying snow on garden furniture and wheelie bins and the car etc. You can see a change in snow cover with every 20 metres in altitude.

Edit: I would say that the snow line proper is at about 80 to 100 metres above sea level.

Duiske · 08-01-2011 3:04pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Had a look there now, nearest decent hill (Brandon hill in graignamanagh to the east of me) doesnt appear to have any snow. It's elevation is around 450m asl, although i cant see the top clearly so there may be something there. Blackstairs MT. (around 650m asl) has snow, but i cant see the snowline from here. Going by brandon, it wasnt quite as marginal as i thought.

Closest I seen to snow yesterday was at Copenagh (roughly 230m asl), highest point on the road between Graignamanagh and Thomastown.about 4pm. Very wet stuff though which was not sticking, and a friend who travelled the same road about an hour later said it was just raining in the same area.

thetonynator · 08-01-2011 3:06pm

Duiske wrote: »

Closest I seen to snow yesterday was at Copenagh (roughly 230m asl), highest point on the road between Graignamanagh and Thomastown.about 4pm. Very wet stuff though which was not sticking, and a friend who travelled the same road about an hour later said it was just raining in the same area.

Will be driving over there in a few hours, will check if theres anything left. I dont think anything stuck up there though . . . even brandon didnt appear white this morning.

greysides · 08-01-2011 3:18pm

Absolutely no need for an apology, the real sin would be if you let it ever stop you calling it as you see it.
It doesn't take too long reading the weather forum threads before you realise just how complex forecasting snow is. If it were easy there would be no fun in it.

(Take a lesson from ME, 'don't look back'.)

That you felt the need to start this thread demonstrates how seriously you take your forecasts and it's that dedication that is appreciated so much on this forum. I always look for your posts, amongst others.:)

kindredspirit · 08-01-2011 3:31pm

Don't understand. We had a pile of snow last night.

Didn't you all?

Roads are very bad around here at moment even though it is thawing.

P.S. It's our first proper snowfall of the winter. We had no snow when it appeared to be everywhere else. (Location: Co. Limerick.)

fizzycyst · 08-01-2011 3:50pm

It's the nature of forecasting that you won't get it right all the time. It drives me mad when I hear people giving out about ME, or anyone else for that matter, getting it wrong.

You definitely do not need to apologise darkman, and btw, thanks for sharing the why's and why not's as too whether it will snow or not, you wouldn't believe how much a person can learn from all the information that's shared here.:)

irishdub14 · 08-01-2011 3:51pm

derekon wrote: »

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

Yes, this pic is from Skerries:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/markwaldron/3426202745/

Rodin · 08-01-2011 3:54pm

We got snow in the north so I was very impressed to be told about it at the start of the week Darkman.
Cars stranded at bottom of hills because of it too.

Strangegravy · 08-01-2011 3:57pm

Ha, ha.. absolutely no need to apologize at all!

We got our best snow of the winter so far down here in Castletroy, Limerick. I still have a melty snowman in the backyard...

For our area the forecast was spot on, and coupled with a big power cut right in the middle of it for maybe an hour or so, it felt like something right out of the 1800s!

You saw all the potential ingredients were there and you put that info out there, the rest was up to Mother Nature's selective icy hands.. fair play to you for doing your part!

ORACLE2 · 08-01-2011 5:29pm

Dont apologise at all,you weren`t completely wrong I can tell you, im on the Cork Kerry border not far from Millstreet and I can tell you we got 4 to 5 ins of the stuff so that is not getting a forecast of snow wrong in my opinion.

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

lucy2010 · 08-01-2011 5:31pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I must appoligise to you all. My forcast for significant snow was wrong. I won't make excuses, it was simply wrong and im sorry if you prepared or were disappointed. It is my fault. I will adjust things to ensure a screw up like this is less likely in the future by myself. Sorry.

Would you stop....... your forecast as well as a couple of others is what I follow. If I want to know something I ask certain people.. & as for the tools on this who think they know better.... called get a life. Dont be so hard on yourself....... ill still pop in to see what your opinion is & will still believe it too.....:D

highdef · 08-01-2011 6:08pm

derekon wrote: »

Can you really see the Mourne Mountains from Balbriggan ?

You can indeed. You can also see the Mourne mountains from Howth Head when the visibility is half decent or better. Also, from Howth Head, you can see Snowdonia and the highest peaks in North Wales, when visibility is excellent.

highdef · 08-01-2011 6:22pm

And I agree, no need for any apologies.

For the record, here is my account of yesterday.

Left work in Dublin destined for home (close to Enfield and Kilcock but nearer to Enfield) at about 17:30. Was 3.5c, according to the car and the rain was quite heavy. By Leixlip, it was down to 3c and there was sleet mixed in. When I turned off at junction 8 of the M4 (for Kilcock and Clane), it was 2.5c and there were a few "proper" snow flakes mixed in with the rain. Got onto the R148 between Kilcock and Enfield and took the turn for my village. This involves a crossing over a c 150m hill. At the summit of the hill, there was wet snow and no rain and it was 2c. Same when I got to my village at approx 18:15 (c90m ASL).

By 19:00. it was snowing between moderate and heavy in intensity and it began to stick by 20:00. By 20:30, everything was white outside. Was going to the cinema in Liffey Valley for 21:50 so left the house just after 21:00 in case the main roads were bad. Roads in the village were snow covered to a depth of about 2cm although it was very wet. Temp was 1c. Began to climb up the hill and almost made it to the top but lost traction on the long straight (didn't build up enough speed) - Snow was about 3 - 4cm here and it was less wet and more like proper snow. Got over the summit with the help of a push, a long 2nd gear start and a resulting very smelly clutch! Temp at the top was 0.5c. The R148 was very slushy and the M4 where I joined at junction 8 was also very slushy. It was 1c at this point. By the time I got to junction 7 (maynooth), there was virtually no sticking snow except a tiny bit on the verges. It had hit 2c here. The snow was a little bit more sleety in nature. By junction 6 (Leixlip), it was just plain sleet and icy rain with a temp of 2.5 and it was just plain old wet roads. And by Lucan (and on to Liffey Valley), it was just rain with a temp alternating between 3c and 3.5c.

Sorry for such a long post but MT was looking for examples of the transition areas and I thought the above was a good example.

Oh, and as I type, the last shower of the day has just passed. Temp was 2.3c when it began and it's 2.1 now that it has cleared and falling quickly. Roads are slushy outside. All grass is still white and my driveway is still covered with a light covering.

goodies · 08-01-2011 8:53pm

well if you had been in the car with us travelling from kerry to dublin yesterday you would not have posted this thread at all darkman....from nenagh to roscrea about 4 pm there were blizzard conditions...my hubbie could not see the road properly but was afraid to pull over in case we got stuck with the 2 smallies...we drove on and it turned to heavy rain just after roscrea....in my opinion this was a snow event cogratulations and don't be worrying yourself...in fact the only reason we travelled early in the day was because of reading here we could have been rightly stuck behind the system thank you

ch750536 · 08-01-2011 9:59pm

a good 3 inches here. Lads had a great time in the stuff for at least 2 hrs. Spot on forecast from my window.

delw · 08-01-2011 11:00pm

Darkman2 no need for this thread,you called snow like many but it didnt fall were you said,big deal you made a call not like your getting paid by tax payers, you shared your insight with us,not every1 can be right all of the time,i still will be looking forward to your future forcasts/imputs

snowbabe · 08-01-2011 11:16pm

Behave !!!!! I for one really enjoy your posts and they are all very enlightening,to a complete blow in who knows nothing.I also thank you hugely for all you do here,and hope you are not disheartened over a blip(flake):D:DMany thanks to you and indeed all the experts here!

Gaolcon · 08-01-2011 11:22pm

Forecast,s are always wrong is this news?

Forcast was wrong

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