Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2020 12:57am

ICON's route for Monday . All very much subject to change over the coming days but good for the learning to see how the models handle this.

The kind of snowfall that ICON is predicting for Monday in it's last run but could all change in a couple of runs.

typhoony · 23-01-2020 8:42am

Gfs just can't decide what it wants to do with the Low on Monday, on the 0z run it's a bomb that heads into the SW of England with a max wind gust of 92mph just off the SW coast of England and Wales, I have never seen that severe wind gust speed on a model before

KingdomRushed · 23-01-2020 11:11am

typhoony wrote: »

Gfs just can't decide what it wants to do with the Low on Monday, on the 0z run it's a bomb that heads into the SW of England with a max wind gust of 92mph just off the SW coast of England and Wales, I have never seen that severe wind gust speed on a model before

It has disappeared from the 6z

pauldry · 23-01-2020 11:20am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

It has disappeared from the 6z

In Sligo we nearly always have a snowy morning at the end of January start of February.

Next Tuesday is the day

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2020 9:08pm

Sunday evening /night the ECM picking out a trough I reckon which currently looks to cross the country producing some sort of wintry mix, possibly rain and areas getting sleet/ snow mix and snow on higher ground, Looks like the W, NW and N getting the most of it. Showers overnight into Monday look wintry and very cold and windy on the coasts. Any signs of a wind event have disappeared from all the models, getting windier towards Monday evening into Tuesday.

pauldry · 24-01-2020 12:01am

Oh windy....that may scupper chance of snowy Tuesday in Sligo town. We need relative calm with this cold

typhoony · 24-01-2020 11:32am

taken from https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/uk/next3to6days/snow…..

uksnownext3to6days.cc23.jpg

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2020 12:37pm

Cheeky little Low Tuesday morning close to the the NW. One to watch. Even at this close time frame ARPEGE and ICON showing it much further off the NW coast and GFS hasent developed it much either.

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2020 7:56pm

Big adjustment by the ECM taking that small low well off the coast early Tuesday

Kermit.de.frog · 26-01-2020 8:17pm

UKMO showing that occlusion having crossed the country by midnight tomorrow night

fax36s.gif?2

That's our chance in the east.

Gonzo · 29-01-2020 5:06pm

next weeks potential northerly toppler and the SSW event mid February now looks off the table, we just can't catch a break this winter. We have a mild warming taking place but it isn't nearly enough to affect anything. The next 5 to 7 days now look like staying mild or very mild.

Storm 10 · 29-01-2020 5:29pm

Gonzo wrote: »

next weeks potential northerly toppler and the SSW event mid February now looks off the table, we just can't catch a break this winter. We have a mild warming taking place but it isn't nearly enough to affect anything. The next 5 to 7 days now look like staying mild or very mild.

#

What are they going to bring rain ??????????

Meteorite58 · 31-01-2020 1:03am

Quite windy later Fri into Saturday. Will feel windy well inland across the country.

Mild day tomorrow. Bit cooler on Saturday.

Meteorite58 · 31-01-2020 10:01pm

Some bit of wintry precipitation around maybe later Monday into Tuesday in the W and NW, showery rain also , a few thunderstorms as well perhaps in the same area giving hail showers. Windy also so feeling very cold.

Rebelbrowser · 01-02-2020 12:55am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Some bit of wintry precipitation around maybe later Monday into Tuesday in the W and NW, showery rain also , a few thunderstorms as well perhaps in the same area giving hail showers. Windy also so feeling very cold.

Just looking at that. Potential there for some ninja snow

Meteorite58 · 02-02-2020 6:24pm

All the models have increased the winds Monday night into Tuesday coming from a NW'ly direction associated with a LP near Northern Scotland, highest winds on W, NW and perhaps along E coasts for a time on Tuesday. Strong winds across Northern counties. Will this increase further?

Meteorite58 · 02-02-2020 6:37pm

Much cooler tomorrow under a colder airmass, probably about 6 to 8 C in general, feeling very cold in the wind, Blustery showers some wintry on high ground in the W, NW and N, thunderstorm potential along the Northern coasts so hail showers possible. Showers making there way across the country could leave a dusting on the Wicklow Mts.

Meteorite58 · 04-02-2020 9:38pm

Now there is rapid cyclongennisis , Bombogenesis for the storm on Sunday.

ECM GIF charts showing a drop of 57 mb in 24 hrs, double bomb ! for developing storm on Sunday and Saturday now looking like could get very strong winds also from the afternoon from another fast moving deepening depression which is currently shown to cross the country. Early days and changes no doubt but that is what it is showing atm

Sunday

Looking atm like gusting 100 to 120 km/h overland, maybe 130km/h in places. Heavy rain also.

Saturday : gusting up around 110 km/h overland, might get very strong in the midlands / East later as it deepens crossing the country. One to watch closely. Heavy rain during the passage.

Meteorite58 · 04-02-2020 9:45pm

Other models dont develop as much the fast moving LP for Saturday

Meteorite58 · 04-02-2020 10:57pm

The Jet powering up.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 8:36am

Models continue to show Sunday ( after a very windy spell on Sat) as extremely windy and storm conditions look increasingly likely. Very heavy rain Sat for a time and very heavy in places on Sunday.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 7:52pm

Saturday is like the appetizer for the main event on Sunday. Fast moving active fronts crossing from W to E, currently looking windiest along coastal counties and the Southern half of the country, 80 to 110 km/h perhaps, heavy squally showers, heaviest rain along coastal counties in the NW, W, SW, S.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 8:03pm

Sunday very consistent by the ECM. Widespread gusting over 100 to 110 km/h, up to 120 km/h in places and showing 130 kmh + in coastal areas. Looking like a country wide Orange warning at this stage. Fairly long duration storm especially in the W, NW and southern half of the country at this stage, remaining quite windy along Atlantic Coastal counties overnight Sunday into Monday.

Heavy squally driving rain making conditions very difficult .

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 8:12pm

Pressure according to the latest run from the ECM, deepens rapidly on approach and looks to drop to about 951 hPa off the NW/N before rising slowly and introducing colder air mass as the day goes on and possibly leading to wintry precipitation towards night.

Donegal Ken · 05-02-2020 8:14pm

Latest ECMWF model this evening shows the worst of the winds across, Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Fermanagh, Derry, Tyrone and Antrim gusting between 110km/hr to 130km/hr with some gusts in excess of 130km/hr across northwestern and northern coastal counties on Sunday.

Big risks of coastal flooding also with big waves and high seas combined with high spring tides particularly around the Donegal Bay region and coastal areas of Donegal.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 8:17pm

Coming in to Spring tides this weekend so coastal flooding an issue in parts perhaps.

ZHWwV12.jpg?1

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 8:22pm

Uther modles in fair agreement except the ARPEGE not as strong for Sunday, bit at the edge of its range perhaps.

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 9:13pm

Santy2015 · 05-02-2020 9:25pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Not good

Meteorite58 · 05-02-2020 9:42pm

UKMO similar to the ECM with track and depth

GFS deeper but further N and not quite as strong as the ECM but close

Donegal Ken · 05-02-2020 10:58pm

Storm Ciara also has good potential to develop a Sting jet. Western, northwestern and northern coastal counties of Ireland would be a high level orange warning and low level red warning based on the ECMWF.

Coastal waters would also probably see a red marine warning issued going on the latest ECMWF and UKMO.

Don't be surprised to see a status orange nationwide warning issued for Ireland for Sunday and a possible Amber for Northern Ireland.

typhoony · 05-02-2020 11:08pm

GFS 18z has backed off a bit on the severity of the wind.

squarecircles · 05-02-2020 11:19pm

typhoony wrote: »

GFS 18z has backed off a bit on the severity of the wind.

while the ICON has upgraded 100 -150kmh gusts.

Snow Garden · 05-02-2020 11:38pm

They are some tasty looking charts. Keep them coming!

Gonzo · 05-02-2020 11:50pm

squarecircles wrote: »

while the ICON has upgraded 100 -150kmh gusts.

The Icon is a bit more of a scary run, let's hope they are not right.

The GFS continues to downgrade the storm, still looks very windy tho with speeds up to 100 or 110km/h.

84-289UK.GIF?05-18

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2020 12:00am

I think the GFS 18Z might bean outlier, it has brought the track of the storm much further N than the others on this run.

pauldry · 06-02-2020 12:14am

It's all very mish mash but 120kph seems the minimum for Sunday and with driving rain there will be fallen branches and some power outages as well as the high seas of course

Irish Steve · 06-02-2020 12:16am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

If ever there was a beast from the east, it's this image. Looks so much like a wolf about to close it's mouth on an unsuspecting victim.

Oneiric 3 · 06-02-2020 12:19am

Could be worth opening up a dedicated thread at this stage just to keep any discussion on Storm Ciara in tidy place. I'll leave that to 'the mods' to decide, but a little prompting never hurt anyone.

Meteorite58 · 06-02-2020 12:29am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Could be worth opening up a dedicated thread at this stage just to keep any discussion on Storm Ciara in tidy place. I'll leave that to 'the mods' to decide, but a little prompting never hurt anyone.

Thanks Oneric 3, I have left a message earlier for MT to see if he would like to kick it off.

Oneiric 3 · 06-02-2020 12:34am

All of the ensemble (eps) options on tonight's run, which are centered around the mean. Solid agreement on a northwards track, just more a question now as to how far north.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-02-2020 12:39am

Several threads need to be opened for both storms and snow. I see Met Eireann had 14C down for Monday on their main tv forecast. What's that about?
MT has 7 to 9 for early next week with no mention of snow. Am I looking at different charts? Because if the charts are right it won't be 14C or 9 C either!

Gaoth Laidir · 06-02-2020 1:06am

The OOZ ECM did have good parameters for snow on Monday and into Tuesday. I haven't checked the 12Z.

700-1000 thickness down near the 282 dam mark, very strong westerly wind minimising modification over the ocean. 500 hPa temps near -40 °C giving good CAPE, the showers making it right across to the east.

typhoony · 06-02-2020 9:04am

squarecircles wrote: »

while the ICON has upgraded 100 -150kmh gusts.

Backed off again this morning also ECM showing it less severe for sunday

Rebelbrowser · 06-02-2020 9:56am

In terms of snow potential, my area of interest, good model consensus right now that uppers will be -6 and below from Monday evening to Wednesday lunch time. 0z GFS shows some seriously cold air, given it is Atlantic sourced, by Tuesday morning...

Alas GFS snow accumulation charts don't show much promise...

6z's just rolling out now

Bogwoppit · 06-02-2020 11:03am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Alas GFS snow accumulation charts don't show much promise...

6z's just rolling out now

Unless, like me, you’re driving through the Scottish highlands next week for work!

typhoony · 06-02-2020 6:21pm

the sweetspot for snow could be late Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday, wind should keep going all night pushing those snow showers into the west

Santy2015 · 06-02-2020 9:06pm

Are we looking at yellow warnings going forward for wind and possible snow Monday evening Tuesday?

typhoony · 06-02-2020 9:16pm

Santy2015 wrote: »

Are we looking at yellow warnings going forward for wind and possible snow Monday evening Tuesday?

doubt we'll see any snow and ice warnings until Monday morning.

Meteorite58 · 08-02-2020 7:54pm

ECM has brought the LP further North on the latest two runs showing windy in the SW, S, one to watch

Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST