Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

06-01-2021 9:06am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

What about the event though?

Met Eireann's 755am forecast on Radio one just now,said rain and sleet spreading down from the northwest turning to snow for a time in the Midlands and East

Usually weakening bands from that direction are dry by the time they get here
Up your area,you're battling similar marginal conditions as down here,so the question is are you far enough inland and near enough to high ground to be on the right side of marginal to defeat the marine layer
I wouldn't bet the house on it

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 9:22am

The TAFs (valid to 6 am tomorrow morning) are pretty set on snow tomorrow morning. The only slight doubt is Shannon, which has only a slight chance (PROB30) of precip turning to snow.

(DUBLIN )TAF EIDW 060500Z 0606/0706 34008KT 9999 SCT020 BKN045
PROB40 TEMPO 0606/0614 7000 -SHRAGS FEW018CB
PROB30 TEMPO 0606/0610 4000 -SHRASN BKN014
TEMPO 0612/0617 32007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0614/0618 -SHRAGS FEW018CB
BECMG 0617/0619 27007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0618/0703 0300 FZFG BKN001
BECMG 0704/0706 24010KT 4000 -RASN BKN010
TEMPO 0704/0706 1200 -SN BKN003=

(SHANNON) TAF COR EINN 060512Z 0606/0706 33005KT 9999 FEW030
PROB30 TEMPO 0607/0613 0300 FZFG BKN001
BECMG 0609/0611 VRB03KT
PROB40 TEMPO 0618/0624 0300 FZFG BKN001
BECMG 0622/0624 14005KT
BECMG 0701/0703 -RA BKN014
TEMPO 0701/0706 2000 -RASN BKN005
PROB40 TEMPO 0701/0704 4000 -FZRA
PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0705 1400 -SN BKN003=

(CORK) TAF EICK 060500Z 0606/0706 35010KT 9999 FEW012
PROB40 TEMPO 0622/0704 2000 BR BKN004
PROB30 TEMPO 0622/0703 0300 FZFG BKN001
BECMG 0700/0702 32005KT
BECMG 0705/0706 2000 -SN BKN004=

(CONNAUGHT) TAF EIKN 060500Z 0606/0706 VRB03KT 9999 FEW020 BECMG 0620/0622 20007KT 2000 -RASN BKN005
TEMPO 0621/0703 0200 SN FG BKN001
BECMG 0703/0705 30006KT 9999 NSW BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 0703/0706 4000 BR BKN005=

(BELFAST/ ALDERGROVE) TAF EGAA 060500Z 0606/0706 34003KT 9999 SCT045
BECMG 0700/0703 SCT002 BKN008
TEMPO 0701/0706 0400 SN BKN001
PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0706 FZRA=

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 9:25am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Might be missing a trick for Thursday night

Snow showers getting ever closer to the east coast

Could be more snow in Dublin/Wicklow tomorrow night than tonight

AuntySnow Anti-Snow will be devastated

Soundings are showing that more of a high ground affair.

gerrybhoy · 06-01-2021 9:52am

Looks as though the heavens are about to open here in D17,same when i left D15 sky is very grey

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:53am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The TAFs (valid to 6 am tomorrow morning) are pretty set on snow tomorrow morning. The only slight doubt is Shannon, which has only a slight chance (PROB30) of precip turning to snow.

Looking good!

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:02am

Looking at GF’s run, this run appears to be an upgrade. Temperatures here rise to 0c and are back below 0c by 6am after the event has passed.

850hPa’s only briefly rise to -4c and are back down to -6c after the front.

Precipitation type appears to be all snow also, so this is actually looking good so far.

pad199207 · 06-01-2021 10:07am

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1346743406031208449?s=21

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:11am

AuntySnow wrote: »

Met Eireann's 755am forecast on Radio one just now,said rain and sleet spreading down from the northwest turning to snow for a time in the Midlands and East

Usually weakening bands from that direction are dry by the time they get here
Up your area,you're battling similar marginal conditions as down here,so the question is are you far enough inland and near enough to high ground to be on the right side of marginal to defeat the marine layer
I wouldn't bet the house on it

The models disagree with you. I did say we had a similar event that fell as snow here a year or two ago. It did not amount to much as the Donegal hills ate up all the precipitation.

The main thing is to get the temps below 0c as soon as the sun sets and keep them there.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:20am

Winds are from the SW which is off land for me.

pauldry · 06-01-2021 10:22am

Its -6c here in Sligo at 9am. Is that cold enough

SEPT 23 1989 · 06-01-2021 10:48am

Snowing

Newcastle Dublin

06-01-2021 10:52am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Winds are from the SW which is off land for me.

I didn't state a fact! I just asked a question! And I just stated what the met Éireann forecaster said at 755am
You are looking for a land breeze and how far inland that is travelling before getting to you

davidsr20 · 06-01-2021 11:08am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Looking at GF’s run, this run appears to be an upgrade. Temperatures here rise to 0c and are back below 0c by 6am after the event has passed.

850hPa’s only briefly rise to -4c and are back down to -6c after the front.

Precipitation type appears to be all snow also, so this is actually looking good so far.

Could u show the whole country on those charts we don’t all live where u are.

torres9kop · 06-01-2021 11:10am

What are the chances for lying snow in Dublin 4 next few days??

Danno · 06-01-2021 11:18am

davidsr20 wrote: »

Could u show the whole country on those charts we don’t all live where u are.

The site he is posting images from is: https://meteologix.com/ie

MOD NOTE: If possible, when quoting other's posts - remove the [ img ] and everything in between [ /img ] to save thread space - particularly if the other's post has multiple imagery.

Many thanks!

06-01-2021 11:20am

torres9kop wrote: »

What are the chances for lying snow in Dublin 4 next few days??

06z Icon thinks there will be falling snow at least Friday morning for you anyway

overview_20210106_06_048.jpg.2b05888d75ede9a69326bc4de1a911e8.jpg

overview_20210106_06_048.jpg.2b05888d75ede9a69326bc4de1a911e8.jpg

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 11:25am

There isn’t much snow for the rest of the island. The snow intensity fades as soon as the front heads southeast.

It appears to me that there will be very light snow (that might fizzle away) in the centre portions of the island. Galway etc won’t get snow due to the SW wind coming off the Atlantic.

There may be small pulses of heavier snow in some places south of Ulster (but not SE).

06-01-2021 11:34am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There isn’t much snow for the rest of the island. The snow intensity fades as soon as the front heads southeast.

It appears to me that there will be very light snow (that might fizzle away) in the centre portions of the island. Galway etc won’t get snow due to the SW wind coming off the Atlantic.

There may be small pulses of heavier snow in some places south of Ulster (but not SE).

I think from Athlone,& Ofally North meath to Louth up to cavan monaghan across to Fermanagh,Tyrone and inland sligo (Tubercurry;)) could be the sweet spot for most snow off this

Slashermcguirk · 06-01-2021 11:35am

Sounds like there is a decent chance of a small covering in Dublin. Always a bit hit and miss but we had a dusting of snow in Dublin a week or so ago when I expected nothing.

torres9kop wrote: »

What are the chances for lying snow in Dublin 4 next few days??

daniel_t1409 · 06-01-2021 11:41am

Is there a chance of snow in wexford? or is this another event that only affects the north of the country?

begbysback · 06-01-2021 11:51am

Is this like the bhig schnow of 1982 & 2016?

highdef · 06-01-2021 11:53am

begbysback wrote: »

Is this like the bhig schnow of 1982 & 2016?

No

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 11:53am

begbysback wrote: »

Is this like the bhig schnow of 1982 & 2016?

Tomorrow (7th Jan) will be the 39th anniversary of the mother of all snow events, in the east anyway.

begbysback · 06-01-2021 11:57am

highdef wrote: »

No

That’s a shame, given that we are in lockdown anyways, we could have killed two birds with one stone.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 12:13pm

Met Office warning, looking good!

“ A band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to push southeast across Northern Ireland on Wednesday night before clearing during Thursday. Away from some northern and eastern coasts, this will fall mainly as snow with accumulations of 1-2 cm possible. 2-5 cm of snow is possible on hills above about 150 m. Accumulating snow may well affect the Glenshane Pass. Snow should ease, whilst probably turning back to rain, early Thursday. Regardless of snow accumulation, after several cold days, ice is likely to be relatively widespread on untreated surfaces.”

No altitude mentioned which is a great sign!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=e3f9cfd4-9634-4f04-92c1-6851efff24a7&date=2021-01-07&details

highdef · 06-01-2021 12:22pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Met Office warning, looking good!

“ A band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to push southeast across Northern Ireland on Wednesday night before clearing during Thursday. Away from some northern and eastern coasts, this will fall mainly as snow with accumulations of 1-2 cm possible. 2-5 cm of snow is possible on hills above about 150 m. Accumulating snow may well affect the Glenshane Pass. Snow should ease, whilst probably turning back to rain, early Thursday. Regardless of snow accumulation, after several cold days, ice is likely to be relatively widespread on untreated surfaces.”

No altitude mentioned which is a great sign!

Altitude is mentioned, the forecast is showing more or less a dusting below 150m with appreciable depths (still not much though) above 150m. It also mentioned that it will be mainly of snow away from the north coast and you are not too far from a northwest coast (Lough Foyle).

Another thing to note (for your location) is that according to the ECM model, the wind is to switch to a sea based northwesterly aspect around midnight whilst precipitation is still falling, together with a fairly substantial increase of temperatures into the low to middle single digit territory. If the model is correct, you may well wake to a slushy mess at best.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 12:29pm

highdef wrote: »

Altitude is mentioned, the forecast is showing more or less a dusting below 150m with appreciable depths (still not much though) above 150m. It also mentioned that it will be mainly of snow away from the north coast and you are not too far from a northwest coast (Lough Foyle).

Another thing to note (for your location) is that according to the ECM model, the wind is to switch to a sea based northwesterly aspect around midnight whilst precipitation is still falling, together with a fairly substantial increase of temperatures into the low to middle single digit territory. If the model is correct, you may well wake to a slushy mess at best.

No, that’s not true. My coast is the North coast which is about 10 miles away. The warning mentions “mainly snow”. And the charts seem to show that.

I did look at the wind and it is showing SW until 5am, which the Met office also shows for me.

The main concern is keeping the precipitation away until after midnight.

pad199207 · 06-01-2021 12:31pm

Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Ireland

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Snow and ice will lead to treacherous conditions. Some accumulations possible.

Valid: 23:00 Wednesday 06/01/2021 to 11:00 Thursday 07/01/2021

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 06/01/2021

06-01-2021 12:32pm

I think a lot is dependent on the islands own cooling and mitigating the marine affect which is why I'd also agree with Gaoth Láidir that if Fridays Irish sea precipitation moves in on Friday morning,you'll need lots of height to see snow

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 12:46pm

Shannon's latest TAF now also includes a slight chance of freezing rain before light snow before freezing fog!

TAF EINN 061100Z 0612/0712 VRB03KT 9999 FEW030
PROB40 TEMPO 0618/0624 0300 FZFG BKN001
TEMPO 0701/0706 2000 RASN BKN005
PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0705 4000 FZRA
PROB30 TEMPO 0701/0705 1400 -SN BKN003
PROB40 TEMPO 0706/0711 0300 FZFG BKN001=

The others still go with light snow a given. Knock and Belfast Aldergrove both go for moderate snow (visibilities 200 - 400 m).

DUBLIN TAF AMD EIDW 061116Z 0612/0712 35008KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030
BECMG 0617/0619 27007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 0618/0703 0300 FZFG BKN001
BECMG 0704/0706 24010KT 4000 -RASN BKN008
TEMPO 0704/0708 1200 -SN BKN003
BECMG 0707/0709 29010KT 9999 NSW=

CORK TAF EICK 061100Z 0612/0712 34008KT 9999 FEW010
PROB40 TEMPO 0622/0704 2000 BR BKN004
PROB30 TEMPO 0622/0703 0300 FZFG BKN001
TEMPO 0705/0710 2000 -SN BKN004
TEMPO 0710/0712 BKN004=

KNOCK TAF EIKN 061100Z 0612/0712 VRB03KT 9999 FEW020
BECMG 0620/0622 2000 -RASN BKN005
TEMPO 0621/0703 0200 SN FG BKN001
BECMG 0703/0705 9999 NSW BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 0703/0706 4000 BR BKN005
BECMG 0706/0708 32010KT=

TAF EGAA 061058Z 0612/0712 31003KT 9999 SCT040
BECMG 0623/0702 SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0700/0706 0400 SN BKN001
PROB30 TEMPO 0700/0706 FZRA
PROB40 TEMPO 0706/0712 3000 SHRASN BKN003
BECMG 0707/0710 FEW012 SCT025=

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 12:48pm

I must say it is very rare for a front coming in off the Atlantic to give snow (maybe temporarily)

highdef · 06-01-2021 12:52pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

No, that’s not true. My coast is the North coast which is about 10 miles away. The warning mentions “mainly snow”. And the charts seem to show that.

I did look at the wind and it is showing SW until 5am, which the Met office also shows for me.

The main concern is keeping the precipitation away until after midnight.

OK, I was going by direct mathematical output from the European Computer Model. I'm not saying it's correct, I can only interpret the information from it.

I had a look on metoffice.gov.uk and it doesn't show anything more than sleet for both Coleraine and Limavady for tonight with temperatures in the overnight period between 1 and 3c for those locations. Now, if you are between those towns and have that high ground to your north, it "might" sway you to the correct side of marginal but 50m ASL might not cut it. Location wise, if I were to draw a line from Limavady and Coleraine, would you live somewhere along that line? Would you be somewhere along that line but further inland and if so, how much further? On Google Maps, I see a little townland called Ringsend east of Limavady and south west of Coleraine. If you live near enough to this area, you might have a far enough land fetch for snow to fall and accumulate with a north or northwest wind source.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 12:55pm

I am seeing a SW wind in all of the models. I looked for this immediately as the wind affects marginality here.

YanSno · 06-01-2021 1:01pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I am seeing a SW wind in all of the models. I looked for this immediately as the wind affects marginality here.

Winds will be onshore in a northerly direction around midnight for the north. Leading edge will be snow but soon after midnight it will be sleet and rain for the north and north west

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 1:03pm

You are all determined that I won’t see snow.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 1:05pm

YanSno wrote: »

Winds will be onshore in a northerly direction around midnight for the north. Leading edge will be snow but soon after midnight it will be sleet and rain for the north and north west

No. The wind veers from straight South, to SW between midnight and 5am.

You can see on the charts that the winds are southerly even off the coast.

YanSno · 06-01-2021 1:06pm

It's years of experience we have seen it all before especially here in the east coast

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 1:08pm

Well I am not on the immediate coast. I am about 10 miles from the north coast.

I do have water to my NW but that only affects me with a WNW or NW wind which it is not going to be.

Humberto Salazar · 06-01-2021 1:08pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

You are all determined that I won’t see snow.

Snowman pics with date visible, that'll be proof. I doubt I'll make a snowball in Offaly but a dusting will be nice to look at I suppose.

highdef · 06-01-2021 1:13pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

You are all determined that I won’t see snow.

Nobody is determined for you to have a certain type of weather that we decide on. As YanSno said, regular posters with years of experience are basing their forecasts on numerical data plus the experiences of similar events in the past.

Unless there is some sort of wave near my location, I'm expecting very little snow tonight, about 40km from the east coast of Dublin.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 1:15pm

I have years of experience as well..

Your experience in another region doesn’t trump what the weather models show. Two of you now have referred to a northerly wind which is non existent on the models.

I have just posted charts to show a SW and WSW wind which the Met Office also forecast.

Either way, as I said earlier the issue will be the timing of precipitation, if it comes in before midnight it could fall as sleet or wet snow.

Danno · 06-01-2021 1:19pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

You are all determined that I won’t see snow.

Please pull back on the you V us tone, it's unhelpful.

Other posters here are highlighting what the charts are showing and showing you where the marginality of the setup in your area may mean you miss out on snow for some or all of the front's passage.

It's 50-50 in your area to see this completely fall as snow and accumulate.

Further inland behind the Sperrins to the south of you would be a much better location.

I hope for you that the winds continue SWly for a good proportion of the night.

highdef · 06-01-2021 1:21pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Well I am not on the immediate coast. I am about 10 miles from the north coast.

I do have water to my NW but that only affects me with a WNW or NW wind which it is not going to be.

10 miles is not much when weather is coming in from the sea. Yesterday, Gonzo (who is located between 15 and 20 miles from the east coast) was getting sleety icy showers from the northeast. The very same showers were falling mainly as big fluffy flakes for me (still not sticking though) with a land track of almost 30 miles. We're both at similar altitudes. 50m higher, on the hill to my immediate northeast, snow was just about accumulating but that was close to 150m ASL. One needed to travel about another 30 miles west in order to get temperatures to be cold enough to support snow that would stick at low levels however at this point the showers would have all died out.

pauldry · 06-01-2021 1:24pm

Expecting this to fall as snow for a short period in Sligo and then turn back to rain. We are 5 miles from the coast so anything over 0c usually means rain or sleet. Best we can hope for is snowballs off the car tops

Donegal Ken · 06-01-2021 1:25pm

Highest snow amounts will be across Ulster moderate falls for a time across, Donegal, Derry, Cavan, Tyrone, Fermanagh, Leitrim, Antrim and Sligo accumulating betweeb 2cm to 5cm possibly eastern parts of Galway and Mayo also.
The above areas will sea a mix of sleet around the coasts.

Elsewhere amounts will be much lower 1cm to 2cm but parts of Munster, much of Leinster southern and western Connacht will see very little or nothing at all.

pauldry · 06-01-2021 1:26pm

The temperatures are all rising up a notch now. This could be concerning.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 1:29pm

highdef wrote: »

10 miles is not much when weather is coming in from the sea. Yesterday, Gonzo (who is located between 15 and 20 miles from the east coast) was getting sleety icy showers from the northeast. The very same showers were falling mainly as big fluffy flakes for me (still not sticking though) with a land track of almost 30 miles. We're both at similar altitudes. 50m higher, on the hill to my immediate northeast, snow was just about accumulating but that was close to 150m ASL. One needed to travel about another 30 miles west in order to get temperatures to be cold enough to support snow that would stick at low levels however at this point the showers would have all died out.

There is no wind coming off the ocean.

highdef · 06-01-2021 1:30pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is no wind coming off the ocean.

ECM suggests it will be around or shortly after midnight. It's usually one of, if not the most accurate and reliable model so I would not discount it.

Humberto Salazar · 06-01-2021 1:31pm

Looks weak on satellite, needs a bit of pepping up to deliver a couple cms even past the midlands.

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 1:40pm

Donegal Airport's TAF to 9 pm has it starting off as rain along the coast.

TAF EIDL 061100Z 0612/0621 16005KT 9999 BKN040 BECMG 0617/0619 BKN014 TEMPO 0619/0621 4000 -RA BKN009=

Airport warnings for Ulster airports (UKMO)

Derry Eglinton

Frost
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 11:32 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 18:00 UTC
Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC
GROUND AND AIR FROST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. FROZEN DEPOSITS MAY FORM ON PARKED AIRCRAFT, RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS.

Frost
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 05:36 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 16:00 UTC
Valid to: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 18:00 UTC
GROUND AND AIR FROST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. FROZEN DEPOSITS MAY FORM ON PARKED AIRCRAFT, RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS.

Snow
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 11:32 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 21:00 UTC
Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC
SLIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

Belfast Algergrove

Frost
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 12:03 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 16:00 UTC
Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 11:00 UTC
A GROUND FROST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. FROZEN DEPOSITS MAY FORM ON PARKED AIRCRAFT, RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS.

Frost
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 12:03 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 16:00 UTC
Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 07:00 UTC
AN AIR FROST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. FROZEN DEPOSITS MAY FORM ON PARKED AIRCRAFT.

Belfast City

Frost
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 11:33 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 18:00 UTC
Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC
GROUND AND AIR FROST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. FROZEN DEPOSITS MAY FORM ON PARKED AIRCRAFT, RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS.

Frost
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 05:36 UTC
Valid from: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 17:00 UTC
Valid to: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 18:00 UTC
A GROUND FROST MAY OCCUR. FROZEN DEPOSITS MAY FORM ON PARKED AIRCRAFT, RUNWAYS AND TAXIWAYS.

Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

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