December 2016 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2016 8:27pm #1

With scoring very close after November, a month when most of the leaders drew on the previous months to find a better score in the all but two format, here's the last contest of 2016 ...

1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) but a slight change to the snow 3 point super-bonus, will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.

Deadline for entries will be 0300h Thursday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Friday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

You might also want to enter the winter seasonal forecast contest, in its own thread, and the deadline there is a day or two later so you can put that off until Thursday or Friday if you wish.

Good luck.

sryanbruen · 27-11-2016 8:33pm

sryanbruen __________ 4.2 _ 15.0_ -8.2 _ 50_ 130_ 4.0c, -6.0c, yes

This time, I'm going with what I originally predicted last year for December 2016! (I should have also in November, my score was so poor 'cuz I didn't believe in myself

)

200motels · 27-11-2016 10:15pm

200motels 5.6___13.5___-5.1___ 110___82___ 11___2___No

Bsal · 28-11-2016 1:28am

Bsal_____ 5.0___12.5___-7.0___ 125___90___ 8___3___No

dasa29 · 30-11-2016 1:58am

dasa29.......5.0......10.5.......--8.5......110......100......4.0.....-4.0 Yes; Knock.

kindredspirit · 30-11-2016 1:27pm

4.0° ___ 14.0° ___ -9.0° ___ 75 ___ 125 ___ 7.0° ___ -3.0° ___ Nooo!

DOCARCH · 30-11-2016 5:53pm

DOCARCH _____ 4.3 ___ 14.2 ___ -7.6 ___ 68 ___ 115 ___ 9.1/-0.3/No

Lumi · 30-11-2016 10:09pm

Lumi___6.2___13.7___-6.5___ 108___83___ 10___0___No

M.T. Cranium · 30-11-2016 10:49pm

M.T. Cranium _____ 4.9 __ 14.5 __ --7.5 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 6.4,-2.0 .. yes Ballyhaise

mrskinner · 30-11-2016 11:13pm

Skinner.........5.2......14....... -6.4.......82.......111.....[8.6°<---> 0.6°]. NO.

sunflower3 · 30-11-2016 11:26pm

Sunflower3 _____ 5.1__ 15. 1_ --5.9__ 090 __ 110 ___ 8.4,2.2 .. no

John mac · 30-11-2016 11:32pm

john mac__________ 4.6 _ 13.5_ -7.2 _ 97_ 110_ 7.0c, -3.0c, yes knock

waterways · 30-11-2016 11:43pm

waterways _____ 4.7 __ 13.6 __ -9.1 __ 085 __ 109 ___ 4.5, -1.0, yes

pauldry · 01-12-2016 12:06am

Pauldry _____ 5.3 __ 14.1 __ --7.8 __ 089 __ 116 ___ 8.8..4.4 Snow way (no)

rameire · 01-12-2016 12:31am

Rameire_____4.7__12.3___-7.0__062___112___8___-2.7___No

dacogawa · 01-12-2016 12:40am

Dacogawa _____ 5.0 __ 14.1 __ -8.3 __ 084 __ 102 ___ 3.9,-4.1 .. yes - Dublin Airport

mickger844posts · 01-12-2016 1:07am

mickger844posts __________ 4.0 _ 12.0_ -7.2 _ 60_ 130_ 7.0c, -2.0c, no

Tae laidir · 01-12-2016 1:23am

Tae laidir __________ 5.7 _ 14.9 _ -7.5 _ 85 _ 95 _ 8.7/-1.0/no

Rikand · 01-12-2016 1:53am

Rikand _____ 4.5 __ 15.0 __ --8.0 __ 080 __ 125 ___ 5.0,-4.0 .. yes Ballyhaise

jd · 01-12-2016 7:52am

jd __________ 4.9_ 14.9_ -7.9 _ 82_ 119_ 5,-5, yes Dublin Airport

Jpmarn · 01-12-2016 9:09am

Jpmarn_____4.9__14.2___-7.5__95___105___9___-1.3___No

Joe Public · 01-12-2016 7:02pm

Joe Public _____ 5.0 __ 14.9 __ -6.9 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 9.9,-1.9 No

BLIZZARD7 · 01-12-2016 9:29pm

BLIZZARD7 __________ 2.7c _ 13.8_ -14.7_ 75_ 125_ 2.4c, -8.0c, Yes - Dublin Airport

M.T. Cranium · 02-12-2016 7:33am

Table of forecasts for December 2016

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub 25th __ Snow

Lumi _____________ 6.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.5 _ 108 _ 083 _ 10.0 _ 0.0 ___ no
Tae laidir __________5.7 _ 14.9 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 095 __ 8.7 _-1.0 ___ no
200motels _________5.6 _ 13.5 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 082 __11.0 _ 2.0 ___ no

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --5.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 9.0 _ 1.0 ___ no

Pauldry ___________ 5.3 _ 14.1 _ --7.8 _ 089 _ 116 __ 8.8 _ 4.4 ___ no
MrSkinner _________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ --6.4 _ 082 _ 111 __ 8.6 _ 0.6 ___ no
Sunflower3 ________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ --5.9 _ 090 _ 110 __ 8.4 _ 2.2 ___ no
Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 9.9 _-1.9 ___ no
Dacogawa _________ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ --8.3 _ 084 _ 102 __ 3.9 _-4.1 ___ yes DublinA
Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ --7.0 _ 125 _ 090 __ 8.0 _ 3.0 ___ no
dasa29 ____________5.0 _ 10.5 _ --8.5 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0 _-4.0 ___ yes Knock
jd ___ (-2) _________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --7.9 _ 082 _ 119 __ 5.0 _-5.0 ___ yes DublinA

Consensus _________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 110 __ 7.5 _-1.6 ___ no

M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 6.4 _-2.0 ___ yes B'haise
Jpmarn__(-2) _______4.9 _ 14.2 _ --7.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 9.0 _-1.3 ___ no
waterways _________ 4.7 _ 13.6 _ --9.1 _ 085 _ 109 __ 4.5 _-1.0 ___ yes
Rameire ___________ 4.7 _ 12.3 _ --7.0 _ 062 _ 112 __ 8.0 _-2.7 ___ no
john mac __________ 4.6 _ 13.5 _ --7.2 _ 097 _ 110 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ yes Knock
Rikand ____________ 4.5 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 125 __ 5.0 _-4.0 ___ yes B'haise
DOCARCH __________4.3 _ 14.2 _ --7.6 _ 068 _ 115 __ 9.1 _-0.3 ___ no
sryanbruen _________4.2 _ 15.0 _ --8.2 _ 050 _ 130 __ 4.0 _-6.0 ___ yes B'haise
Kindred Spirit _______ 4.0 _ 14.0 _ --9.0 _ 075 _ 125 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ no
mickger844posts _____4.0 _ 12.0 _ --7.2 _ 060 _ 130 __ 7.0 _ -2.0 ___ no
BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) ___2.7 _ 13.8 _ -14.7 _ 075 _ 125 __ 2.4 _-8.0 ___ yes DublinA
__________________________________________________

Given the frosty start, the consensus IMT running below normal is not surprising, this probably means on average that most of the forecasters believe the average will be at or slightly above normal from 6th to end of month. The range of MIN forecasts is fairly small other than one outlier and is influenced by what is obviously already in the books. The consensus also runs dry and sunny, continuing on from November but less marked. As for the Christmas speculation, that looks to be a little colder than normal but not very much.

Two forecasters (Sryanbruen and waterways) could give a location for their snowfall forecast, that is worth all of one point out of the three available in that super-bonus, let's say by Saturday 3rd at end of day. I hope everyone noticed that the snowfall can occur on either 24th or 25th to include Christmas Eve. The Dublin temps are for the 25th only.

Once again, I will beg for more entries to the seasonal contest, in a separate thread, deadline looming.

November scoring will be on my plate as soon as I get going here on Friday (morning) evening. I expect the annual scoring to be very tight and will have a look at implications for December forecast differences.

Tae laidir · 02-12-2016 11:12am

And we're off with -5.9 in Gurteen yesterday!

sryanbruen · 02-12-2016 11:29am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Table of forecasts for December 2016

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub 25th __ Snow

Lumi _____________ 6.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.5 _ 108 _ 083 _ 10.0 _ 0.0 ___ no
Tae laidir __________5.7 _ 14.9 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 095 __ 8.7 _-1.0 ___ no
200motels _________5.6 _ 13.5 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 082 __11.0 _ 2.0 ___ no

NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --5.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 9.0 _ 1.0 ___ no
Pauldry ___________ 5.3 _ 14.1 _ --7.8 _ 089 _ 116 __ 8.8 _ 4.4 ___ no
MrSkinner _________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ --6.4 _ 082 _ 111 __ 8.6 _ 0.6 ___ no
Sunflower3 ________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ --5.9 _ 090 _ 110 __ 8.4 _ 2.2 ___ no
Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 9.9 _-1.9 ___ no
Dacogawa _________ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ --8.3 _ 084 _ 102 __ 3.9 _-4.1 ___ yes DublinA
Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ --7.0 _ 125 _ 090 __ 8.0 _ 3.0 ___ no
dasa29 ____________5.0 _ 10.5 _ --8.5 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0 _-4.0 ___ yes Knock
jd ___ (-2) _________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --7.9 _ 082 _ 119 __ 5.0 _-5.0 ___ yes DublinA

Consensus _________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 110 __ 7.5 _-1.6 ___ no

M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 6.4 _-2.0 ___ yes B'haise
Jpmarn__(-2) _______4.9 _ 14.2 _ --7.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 9.0 _-1.3 ___ no
waterways _________ 4.7 _ 13.6 _ --9.1 _ 085 _ 109 __ 4.5 _-1.0 ___ yes
Rameire ___________ 4.7 _ 12.3 _ --7.0 _ 062 _ 112 __ 8.0 _-2.7 ___ no
john mac ___________4.6 _ 13.5 _ --7.2 _ 097 _ 110 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ yes Knock
Rikand _____________4.5 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 125 __ 5.0 _-4.0 ___ yes B'haise
DOCARCH __________ 4.3 _ 14.2 _ --7.6 _ 068 _ 115 __ 9.1 _-0.3 ___ no
sryanbruen _________ 4.2 _ 15.0 _ --8.2 _ 050 _ 130 __ 4.0 _-6.0 ___ yes
Kindred Spirit _______ 4.0 _ 14.0 _ --9.0 _ 075 _ 125 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ no
mickger844posts _____4.0 _ 12.0 _ --7.2 _ 060 _ 130 __ 7.0 _ -2.0 ___ no
BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) ___2.7 _ 13.8 _ -14.7 _ 075 _ 125 __ 2.4 _-8.0 ___ yes DublinA
__________________________________________________

Given the frosty start, the consensus IMT running below normal is not surprising, this probably means on average that most of the forecasters believe the average will be at or slightly above normal from 6th to end of month. The range of MIN forecasts is fairly small other than one outlier and is influenced by what is obviously already in the books. The consensus also runs dry and sunny, continuing on from November but less marked. As for the Christmas speculation, that looks to be a little colder than normal but not very much.

Two forecasters (Sryanbruen and waterways) could give a location for their snowfall forecast, that is worth all of one point out of the three available in that super-bonus, let's say by Saturday 3rd at end of day. I hope everyone noticed that the snowfall can occur on either 24th or 25th to include Christmas Eve. The Dublin temps are for the 25th only.

Once again, I will beg for more entries to the seasonal contest, in a separate thread, deadline looming.

November scoring will be on my plate as soon as I get going here on Friday (morning) evening. I expect the annual scoring to be very tight and will have a look at implications for December forecast differences.

Oh sorry, then Ballyhaise is my guess.

pauldry · 02-12-2016 2:14pm

-5.9c at Moorepark

Low for the month according to nobody so there must be another freeze coming after the mild spell coming

waterways · 04-12-2016 12:09pm

Oh just saw that. It's too late now. So take it as more than one location and I couldn't decide which one will get it first.

Jpmarn · 06-12-2016 10:49am

The forecasted high temperatures looks like going over a degree over the consensus in this months contest.

Tae laidir · 07-12-2016 10:01am

Finner Camp logged a Max of 14.6 yesterday.

pauldry · 07-12-2016 10:47am

Sposed to be 16 today.

John mac · 07-12-2016 1:40pm

12:00 report for pheonix park .. 16 deg ..

Tae laidir · 08-12-2016 9:52am

John mac wrote: »

12:00 report for pheonix park .. 16 deg ..

Pheonix Park 16.0 confirmed.

pauldry · 08-12-2016 2:41pm

Wer all bollxd for December

Bloody global warming

M.T. Cranium · 08-12-2016 5:37pm

Report on first week, the cold start was almost obliterated by yesterday's warmer readings ...

but it managed to come in below average for the week ...

IMT of 5.6 was 0.6 below the normal for the period.

PRC was 24% of normal.

SUN was 63% of normal.

Tae laidir · 09-12-2016 1:45pm

Models continue to show warm (and dry) southerlies.
Will Norma beat Con again this month?

pauldry · 09-12-2016 2:14pm

That owl con couldnt predict a raindrop anymore. Lets all be normal.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2016 2:04pm

Data for the second week ...

IMT now on 7.1 thanks to a very mild second week at 8.6 (which was +2.7 relative to normal). If the rest of the month averages 4 then the final value would be 5.3 C, seems unlikely to be far from that in either direction but just a rough guide at this point.

PRC is up to 63% of normal as the second week was close to average at 102%, the southeast ran considerably wetter than the north. This appears likely to keep climbing although no guarantee it would reach normal for the month.

SUN now close to 80% of normal, the week managed 98% with the west doing best; with such small amounts required for normal sunshine, this seems headed towards the above normal category with even modest amounts in view.

MAX and MIN as reported earlier, I think.

sryanbruen · 18-12-2016 10:20am

pauldry wrote: »

Wer all bollxd for December

Bloody global warming

Yeah December has been a disaster for forecasting :cool:. Maybe 2017 will bring us the cold December we've all been waiting for since 2010.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2016 4:59pm

After the third week ...

IMT now on 6.3 after a relatively cool week (mean 4.7, 0.8 below average).

PRC is up to 75% with this past week almost right on the average at 101%.

SUN has made the most of its limited opportunity near the winter solstice, the week averaged 153% of normal and this makes the monthly average 105%.

Although it was quite cold at a few locations, the MIN reported earlier remains intact. MAX of 16.0 may get a minor challenge on Christmas Day but I think 14 will be about the top value from now on.

Tae laidir · 22-12-2016 5:42pm

Duck eggs all round for Christmas Day!

Tae laidir · 26-12-2016 10:39am

Oak Park max. 13.8
Knock min. 3.6

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2016 8:37pm

The bonus question was answered by a blast of warmth, 13.5 and 5.7 were the extremes for Dublin(A) and despite a slight window of opportunity early on 24th as per the rules, I did not detect any evidence of snow at weather recording sites, so the official answer there is no (may have been a coating on hills after a rather cold and showery night 23rd-24th).

The scoring for the December bonus adds that extra three points so the scoring for the bonus is really out of 13 and the month 103.

As nobody came very close to guessing how mild it would be, especially the minimum which itself was only achieved in the last hour (morning minimum was about 10 C), the scoring will pretty much follow the guesses from mildest (using total of max and min) at ten points (Pauldry, who came closest to the min at 4.4, and 200motels, who was closest to the max at 11.0); nine points will go to Bsal and sunflower3, eight will go to Lumi, MrSkinner and DOCARCH, shared with NormaL; then it would be seven points for JoePublic, JPmarn and Tae laidir, six for Rameire and mickger844posts, shared with Con Sensus; then five for MTC, John mac and Kindred Spirit; four points for Waterways and Rikand; three points for JD and Dasa29, two points for Dacogawa and Sryanbruen, and one point for Blizzard7.

Add to that your three bonus points if you said no snow.

For your interest this is an early look at the provisional scoring:

Provisional scoring for December 2016

The values chosen for this approximation are IMT 6.0 (it may be higher, this value requires no minimum progression adjustments, anything higher would give most people about the same boost anyway), then MAX 16.0, MIN --5.9, PRC 68, SUN 115 and the bonus points as explained above.

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub25th_Snow _ TOTAL

Sunflower3 ________ 16 _ 19*_ 20 __08 _ 09 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 84

NormaL ___________ 19 _ 18*_ 18*_ 04 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 77

MrSkinner _________ 17 _ 09*_ 18*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 74
Tae laidir __________22 _ 16*_ 10*_ 09 _ 06 ___ 07 _ 03 _____ 73
Pauldry ___________ 18 _ 10*_ 06*_ 08 _ 10 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 65
Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 15 _ 16*_ 15*_ 05 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 68-4=64
Lumi _____________ 23 _ 06*_ 17*_ 02 _ 04 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 63
DOCARCH _________ 08 _ 12*_ 07*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 63
M.T. Cranium ______ 14 _ 13*_ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 62
Rameire ___________12 _ 02*_ 14*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 59

Consensus _________14 _ 09*_ 10*_ 09 _ 08 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 59

200motels _________21 _ 04*_ 16*_ 01 _ 03 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 58
Jpmarn__(-2) ______ 14 _ 12*_ 10*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 60-2=58
jd ___ (-2) ________ 14 _ 16*_ 05*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 00 _ 57-2=55
Rikand ____________10 _ 18*_ 04*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 55
Dacogawa _________15 _ 10*_ 02*_ 10 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 46
Bsal ______________15 _ 02*_ 14*_ 00 _ 03 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 46
john mac __________11 _ 04*_ 12*_ 05 _ 09 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 46
sryanbruen ________ 07 _ 18*_ 03*_ 09 _ 07 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 46
mickger844posts ____05 _ 01*_ 12*_ 12 _ 07 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 46
Kindred Spirit ______ 05 _ 09*_ 01*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 03 _____ 44
waterways _________12 _ 05*_ 01*_ 09 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 40
dasa29 ____________15 _ 00 __02*_ 01 _ 07 ___ 03 _ 00 _____ 28
BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) __00 _ 07*_ 00 __13 _ 08 ___ 01 _ 00 _29-6=23
__________________________________________________________

Looks very close at the top of the annual table, I won't even venture a guess there so we'll wait for these provisionals to settle, PRC and SUN are probably most likely to shift a little.

M.T. Cranium · 28-12-2016 8:02am

The IMT may finish as high as 6.3 as there was not much frost the past two nights.

That sets up a rather odd sequence for scoring where top score (Lumi, changes to 24) and the bottom half of the IMT scores (all three lower except the existing zero) are higher than or equal to minimum progression and the scores now sitting from 15 to 22 would stay at that value or would not drop by three for minimum progression. I am looking at whether this has happened before and what it would do to the close annual scoring as I want the outcome to be fair. I may conclude this is a case where minimum progression is not required to get a fair result, but hopefully I can apply it and not change the order of finish.

The 68% PRC might come in closer to 72% if there is any significant rain on New Years Eve. I think the average will be closer to 5 mm than 10 mm. Right now if it didn't rain again this month the finish would be 67%. Sunshine probably set if it remains mostly cloudy.

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2016 5:43pm

Report after four weeks ...

IMT sits at 6.4 C, the past week was a mild 6.8 that ran 1.4 above normal for the period. This will probably finish up on 6.3 or 6.4 as today, tomorrow and New Years Eve all look to run close to 6 on average.

MAX 16.0 and MIN --5.9 continue from earlier despite some near misses.

PRC is estimated to be 72% with this week between 65 and 70 depending on what Malin Head recorded (has been missing from data for a few days). The week appears to have been drier in the southeast than the northwest. In the provisional scoring I went with 68% but that may be a bit low, if you said more than 75% you will likely find an extra point or two in the final report.

SUN has edged up further to 111% with this past week managing 128% of the meagre normal values. Any appearance at all of the sun in the last three days should keep this near 110% which is lower than I estimated too, one point different for all scores depending on which side of 112.5 you went as the scores were based on 115. It may be closer and just bounce a few scores around.

The January 2017 forecast thread is open. Happy New Year.

Confirmed (adjusted) scores and the annual scoring report will follow along, the MS won't appear until 3 Jan (I think) but I should be able to work out the numbers ahead of that and then just confirm them from the MS.

M.T. Cranium · 31-12-2016 10:44pm

Malin Head data back in the system (I guess the operator was away for Christmas and returned to read the automatic data) and the PRC looks a bit lower than I estimated so if today's 5-10 mm doesn't hit too hard in the 11-station grid, I expect the mean to come in around 70 or 71 per cent. That will boost most scores in the provisional table by one unless you were below 68, then you would lose one point.

The IMT could be as high as 6.5, if that's the case it will revert to minimum progression even for the highest score (6.2, would go from 22 to 23).

I will at the first moment of sobriety in 2017 estimate more closely and revise the provisional table. I had a look at the annual race, Sunflower3 was already leading that and did a great job of finishing in style. MrSkinner probably has enough points from a solid December to maintain his lead in the total points division. Lumi could move up slightly, others near the top could fall back a peg or two. Some of us "also-rans" will maintain our rankings. Nothing much is likely to change from the November table.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2017 5:51pm

Some confirmed and better estimated numbers now ...

IMT 6.6 (rounded up from 6.56)

PRC 74%

SUN 110%

These result in the following amendments to the provisional scoring. Final confirmed scoring to be posted on 3rd of January together with the annual scoring report.

Provisional scoring for December 2016

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub25th_Snow _ TOTAL

Sunflower3 ________ 18*_ 19*_ 20 __10 _ 10 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 89

NormaL ___________ 20*_ 18*_ 18*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 81

MrSkinner _________ 19*_ 09*_ 18*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 79
Tae laidir __________22*_ 16*_ 10*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 03 _____ 76
Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 17*_ 16*_ 15*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 73-4=69
Pauldry ___________ 20*_ 10*_ 06*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 68
Lumi _____________ 23*_ 06*_ 17*_ 04 _ 05 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 66
M.T. Cranium ______ 13*_ 13*_ 10*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 62
200motels _________21*_ 04*_ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 61

Consensus _________13*_ 09*_ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 61

Jpmarn__(-2) ______ 13*_ 12*_ 10*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 62-2=60
DOCARCH _________ 06*_ 12*_ 07*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 58
Rameire ___________10*_ 02*_ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 56
jd ___ (-2) ________ 13*_ 16*_ 05*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _ 57-2=55
Rikand ____________07*_ 18*_ 04*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 53
Dacogawa _________17*_ 10*_ 02*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 51
Bsal ______________17*_ 02*_ 14*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 50
john mac __________08*_ 04*_ 12*_ 07 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 46
Kindred Spirit ______ 04*_ 09*_ 01*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 03 _____ 44
mickger844posts ____04*_ 01*_ 12*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 42
sryanbruen ________ 05*_ 18*_ 03*_ 07 _ 06 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 41
waterways _________10*_ 05*_ 01*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 41
dasa29 ___________ 17*_ 00 __02*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _____ 33
BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) __02*_ 07*_ 00 __15 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 00 _32-6=26
__________________________________________________________

(to be confirmed on 3rd January)

sryanbruen · 01-01-2017 5:57pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Some confirmed and better estimated numbers now ...

IMT 6.6 (rounded up from 6.56)

PRC 74%

SUN 110%

These result in the following amendments to the provisional scoring. Final confirmed scoring to be posted on 3rd of January together with the annual scoring report.

Provisional scoring for December 2016

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Dub25th_Snow _ TOTAL

Sunflower3 ________ 18*_ 19*_ 20 __10 _ 10 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 89

NormaL ___________ 20*_ 18*_ 18*_ 06 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 81

MrSkinner _________ 19*_ 09*_ 18*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 79
Tae laidir __________22*_ 16*_ 10*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 03 _____ 76
Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 17*_ 16*_ 15*_ 07 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 73-4=69
Pauldry ___________ 20*_ 10*_ 06*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 68
Lumi _____________ 23*_ 06*_ 17*_ 04 _ 05 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 66
M.T. Cranium ______ 13*_ 13*_ 10*_ 13 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 62
200motels _________21*_ 04*_ 16*_ 03 _ 04 ___ 10 _ 03 _____ 61

Consensus _________13*_ 09*_ 10*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 61

Jpmarn__(-2) ______ 13*_ 12*_ 10*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 03 _ 62-2=60
DOCARCH _________ 06*_ 12*_ 07*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 03 _____ 58
Rameire ___________10*_ 02*_ 14*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 56
jd ___ (-2) ________ 13*_ 16*_ 05*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _ 57-2=55
Rikand ____________07*_ 18*_ 04*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 53
Dacogawa _________17*_ 10*_ 02*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 51
Bsal ______________17*_ 02*_ 14*_ 01 _ 04 ___ 09 _ 03 _____ 50
john mac __________08*_ 04*_ 12*_ 07 _ 10 ___ 05 _ 00 _____ 46
Kindred Spirit ______ 04*_ 09*_ 01*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 03 _____ 44
mickger844posts ____04*_ 01*_ 12*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 06 _ 03 _____ 42
sryanbruen ________ 05*_ 18*_ 03*_ 07 _ 06 ___ 02 _ 00 _____ 41
waterways _________10*_ 05*_ 01*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 00 _____ 41
dasa29 ___________ 17*_ 00 __02*_ 03 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 00 _____ 33
BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) __02*_ 07*_ 00 __15 _ 07 ___ 01 _ 00 _32-6=26
__________________________________________________________

(to be confirmed on 3rd January)

Good riddance to you December 2016, a huge disappointment of a Winter month.

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2017 3:47pm

Well, I was expecting to find the December Monthly Summary on line today, but apparently not, I gather Monday was a holiday and this pushes back the publication date to Wed 4th.

I don't want to do a provisional annual table that will need any significant changes made, so I will hold off on the final report until I can check my December estimates against the official data.

Later ...

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2017 2:53pm

Having checked the Monthly Summary, I can confirm the scoring for December as per the above table and this is the report on the annual scoring for 2016.

Annual scoring Jan to Dec 2016

best 10 of 12 ___________________________________________________________ all months

rank/score_FORECASTER _ Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep_Oct_Nov_Dec __ TOTAL SCORE (rank)

01 717 sunflower3 _____ 72 _ 71 _ 81 _ 43 _ 61 _ 63 _ 74 _ 73 _ 62 _ 71 _ 42 _ 89 __ 802 (2)
02 702 MrSkinner______ 83 _ 66 _ 64 _ 58 _ 73 _ 67 _ 71 _ 69 _ 58 _ 65 _ 65 _ 79 __ 818 (1)

03 698 _ Con Sensus ___ 73 _ 75 _ 77 _ 70 _ 67 _ 57 _ 65 _ 68 _ 65 _ 77 _ 49 _ 61 __ 804 (2)

03 689 Lumi __________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 _ 59 _ 65 _ 60 _ 57 _ 74 _ 46 _ 76 _ 33 _ 66 __ 768 (4)
04 672 Dacogawa ______ 52 _ 58 _ 89 _ 50 _ 75 _ 47 _ 66 _ 59 _ 61 _ 74 _ 87 _ 51 __ 769 (3)
05 667 Tae laidir _______86 _ 76 _ 76 _ 46 _ 47 _ 53 _ 57 _ 72 _ 55 _ 69 _ 38 _ 76 __ 751 (6)
06 663 waterways______ 75 _ 75 _ 58 _ 66 _ 75 _ 75 _ 72 _ 50 _ 60 _ 57 _ 40 _ 41 __ 744 (8t)
07 655 Joe Public ______ 28 _ 63 _ 65 _ 72 _ 63 _ 59 _ 62 _ 49 _ 72 _ 70 _ 60 _ 69 __ 732 (10)
08 653 M.T. Cranium ____46 _ 62 _ 78 _ 66 _ 69 _ 45 _ 58 _ 50 _ 57 _ 63 _ 88 _ 62 __ 744 (8t)
09 651 Rameire ________69 _ 60 _ 70 _ 72 _ 59 _ 63 _ 55 _ 59 _ 63 _ 80 _ 50 _ 56 __ 756 (5)
10 649 sryanbruen _____ 27 _ 63 _ 52 _ 76 _ 65 _ 72 _ 70 _ 76 _ 62 _ 72 _ 40 _ 41 __ 716 (12t)

16 649 Norma L _______ 52 _ 65 _ 70 _ 57 _ 71 _ 61 _ 73 _ 55 _ 46 _ 64 _ 49 _ 81 __ 744 (8t)

11 647 mickger844posts_ 78 _ 63 _ 89 _ 68 _ 79 _ 59 _ --- _ 62 _ 39 _ 68 _ 36 _ 42 __ 683 (16)
12 646 DOCARCH ______ 53 _ 62 _ 61 _ 71 _ 71 _ 58 _ 75 _ 62 _ 46 _ 71 _ 57 _ 58 __ 745 (7)
13 640 Pauldry_________53 _ 69 _ 45 _ 80 _ 56 _ 45 _ 55 _ 65 _ 68 _ 60 _ 66 _ 68 __ 730 (11)
14 630 JD_____________69 _ 77 _ 32 _ 71 _ 61 _ 45 _ 67 _ 47 _ 60 _ 62 _ 61 _ 55 __ 707 (15)
15 628 Jpmarn ________ 64 _ 60 _ 47 _ 75 _ 73 _ 51 _ 55 _ 37 _ 81 _ 58 _ 51 _ 60 __ 712 (14)
16 623 Rikand _________67 _ 76 _ 54 _ 54 _ 73 _ 60 _ 52 _ 60 _ 41 _ 71 _ 55 _ 53 __ 716 (12t)
17 615 Dasa29 ________ 66 _ 58 _ 67 _ 53 _ 56 _ 53 _ 49 _ 75 _ 60 _ 78 _ 27 _ 33 __ 675 (18)
18 614 Bsal ___________65 _ 66 _ 66 _ 60 _ 53 _ 45 _ 52 _ 68 _ 61 _ 73 _ 23 _ 50 __ 682 (17)
19 610 200motels ______46 _ 68 _ 74 _ 61 _ 70 _ 22 _ 66 _ 55 _ 68 _ 37 _ 41 _ 61 __ 669 (20)
20 601 John mac _______72 _ 57 _ 36 _ 44 _ 66 _ 57 _ 50 _ 66 _ 60 _ 83 _ 38 _ 46 __ 675 (19)
21 590 kindredspirit ____ --- _ 35 _ 65 _ 58 _ 61 _ 41 _ 79 _ 79 _ 49 _ 66 _ 48 _ 44 __ 625 (21)

xx ___ lostinashford ___ 69 _ 66 _ 63 _ 78 _ 77 _ 36 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 389
xx ___ Schadenfreudia _ 65 _ 72 _ 58 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 260
xx ___ Carnacalla _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 72 _ 33 _ --- _ 52 _ --- _ 61 _ --- __ 218
xx ___ omicron _______ 76 _ 43 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 191
xx ___ Timmyboy _____ --- _ 53 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 53
xx ___ Elmer Blooker __ --- _ --- _ 51 _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 51
xx ___ Blizzard7 _____________________________________________________27 ___ 27
________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________

Congratulations Sunflower3 for winning both December and the annual Boards award (best ten scores) and also to MrSkinner for holding on to the lead for the total score (all months), and to both of you for overtaking Con Sensus who had been leading. Lumi (3rd, 4th) and Dacogawa (4th, 3rd) had very good years, in fact it was quite a close competition and anyone in the top ten or even twelve had their moments. Joe Public made the largest move up the table, other than NormaL who managed to beat Con Sensus twice in the past two months.

Well, it's on to 2017 and a whole new start for everyone, best of luck to you and I hope you enjoy the contest. The pleasure is all mine etc etc.

mrskinner · 04-01-2017 3:47pm

Sunflower3 well done.

Thanks MT for all your work on the forecast competition.

Looking forward to 2017!

December 2016 Boards forecast contest

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