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December 2016 Boards forecast contest

  • 27-11-2016 8:27pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    With scoring very close after November, a month when most of the leaders drew on the previous months to find a better score in the all but two format, here's the last contest of 2016 ...

    1. Predict the IMT (Irish mean temperature, an average for five stations, Casement, Claremorris, Mullingar, Oak Park and Shannon). The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 5.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, the highest daily maximum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    3. Predict the MIN, the lowest daily minimum at any reporting station as confirmed at end of month in the Monthly Summary.

    4. Predict the PRC, the average rainfall expressed as percentage of normal at the eleven stations we normally use, which include the five mentioned for IMT and also Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Malin Head, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN, the total sunshine expressed as a percentage of normal at the six stations used (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia).

    6. For the BONUS question, our traditional prediction of MAX and MIN on Christmas Day at Dub (A) but a slight change to the snow 3 point super-bonus, will it snow at any location among the 25 regular reporting stations on the met.ie website, and this will include 24 as well as 25 Dec. If you get this right on Yes or No, it's worth 2 points for yes verifying, a correct location is worth 1 more point, but no locations will bring in the "No" scores at 3.


    Deadline for entries will be 0300h Thursday 1st of December, with 1 point deductions for every 3h late to 1500h Friday 2nd, after which penalties are 1 point per hour (in addition to the 12 points accumulated to that time).

    You might also want to enter the winter seasonal forecast contest, in its own thread, and the deadline there is a day or two later so you can put that off until Thursday or Friday if you wish.

    Good luck.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen __________ 4.2 _ 15.0_ -8.2 _ 50_ 130_ 4.0c, -6.0c, yes

    This time, I'm going with what I originally predicted last year for December 2016! (I should have also in November, my score was so poor 'cuz I didn't believe in myself :()

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 5.6___13.5___-5.1___ 110___82___ 11___2___No


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,716 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal_____ 5.0___12.5___-7.0___ 125___90___ 8___3___No


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29.......5.0......10.5.......--8.5......110......100......4.0.....-4.0 Yes; Knock.


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    4.0° ___ 14.0° ___ -9.0° ___ 75 ___ 125 ___ 7.0° ___ -3.0° ___ Nooo!


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,118 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 4.3 ___ 14.2 ___ -7.6 ___ 68 ___ 115 ___ 9.1/-0.3/No


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi___6.2___13.7___-6.5___ 108___83___ 10___0___No


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    M.T. Cranium _____ 4.9 __ 14.5 __ --7.5 __ 080 __ 120 ___ 6.4,-2.0 .. yes Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner.........5.2......14....... -6.4.......82.......111.....[8.6°<---> 0.6°]. NO.


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 5.1__ 15. 1_ --5.9__ 090 __ 110 ___ 8.4,2.2 .. no


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac__________ 4.6 _ 13.5_ -7.2 _ 97_ 110_ 7.0c, -3.0c, yes knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____ 4.7 __ 13.6 __ -9.1 __ 085 __ 109 ___ 4.5, -1.0, yes


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry _____ 5.3 __ 14.1 __ --7.8 __ 089 __ 116 ___ 8.8..4.4 Snow way (no)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,767 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_____4.7__12.3___-7.0__062___112___8___-2.7___No


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _____ 5.0 __ 14.1 __ -8.3 __ 084 __ 102 ___ 3.9,-4.1 .. yes - Dublin Airport


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __________ 4.0 _ 12.0_ -7.2 _ 60_ 130_ 7.0c, -2.0c, no


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 5.7 _ 14.9 _ -7.5 _ 85 _ 95 _ 8.7/-1.0/no


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,570 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand _____ 4.5 __ 15.0 __ --8.0 __ 080 __ 125 ___ 5.0,-4.0 .. yes Ballyhaise


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,583 ✭✭✭ jd


    jd __________ 4.9_ 14.9_ -7.9 _ 82_ 119_ 5,-5, yes Dublin Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_____4.9__14.2___-7.5__95___105___9___-1.3___No


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 5.0 __ 14.9 __ -6.9 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 9.9,-1.9 No


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 __________ 2.7c _ 13.8_ -14.7_ 75_ 125_ 2.4c, -8.0c, Yes - Dublin Airport


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,213 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for December 2016

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub 25th __ Snow

    Lumi _____________ 6.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.5 _ 108 _ 083 _ 10.0 _ 0.0 ___ no
    Tae laidir __________5.7 _ 14.9 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 095 __ 8.7 _-1.0 ___ no
    200motels _________5.6 _ 13.5 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 082 __11.0 _ 2.0 ___ no

    NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --5.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 9.0 _ 1.0 ___ no

    Pauldry ___________ 5.3 _ 14.1 _ --7.8 _ 089 _ 116 __ 8.8 _ 4.4 ___ no
    MrSkinner _________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ --6.4 _ 082 _ 111 __ 8.6 _ 0.6 ___ no
    Sunflower3 ________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ --5.9 _ 090 _ 110 __ 8.4 _ 2.2 ___ no
    Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 9.9 _-1.9 ___ no
    Dacogawa _________ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ --8.3 _ 084 _ 102 __ 3.9 _-4.1 ___ yes DublinA
    Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ --7.0 _ 125 _ 090 __ 8.0 _ 3.0 ___ no
    dasa29 ____________5.0 _ 10.5 _ --8.5 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0 _-4.0 ___ yes Knock
    jd ___ (-2) _________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --7.9 _ 082 _ 119 __ 5.0 _-5.0 ___ yes DublinA

    Consensus _________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 110 __ 7.5 _-1.6 ___ no

    M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 6.4 _-2.0 ___ yes B'haise
    Jpmarn__(-2) _______4.9 _ 14.2 _ --7.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 9.0 _-1.3 ___ no
    waterways _________ 4.7 _ 13.6 _ --9.1 _ 085 _ 109 __ 4.5 _-1.0 ___ yes
    Rameire ___________ 4.7 _ 12.3 _ --7.0 _ 062 _ 112 __ 8.0 _-2.7 ___ no
    john mac __________ 4.6 _ 13.5 _ --7.2 _ 097 _ 110 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ yes Knock
    Rikand ____________ 4.5 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 125 __ 5.0 _-4.0 ___ yes B'haise
    DOCARCH __________4.3 _ 14.2 _ --7.6 _ 068 _ 115 __ 9.1 _-0.3 ___ no
    sryanbruen _________4.2 _ 15.0 _ --8.2 _ 050 _ 130 __ 4.0 _-6.0 ___ yes B'haise
    Kindred Spirit _______ 4.0 _ 14.0 _ --9.0 _ 075 _ 125 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ no
    mickger844posts _____4.0 _ 12.0 _ --7.2 _ 060 _ 130 __ 7.0 _ -2.0 ___ no
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) ___2.7 _ 13.8 _ -14.7 _ 075 _ 125 __ 2.4 _-8.0 ___ yes DublinA
    __________________________________________________

    Given the frosty start, the consensus IMT running below normal is not surprising, this probably means on average that most of the forecasters believe the average will be at or slightly above normal from 6th to end of month. The range of MIN forecasts is fairly small other than one outlier and is influenced by what is obviously already in the books. The consensus also runs dry and sunny, continuing on from November but less marked. As for the Christmas speculation, that looks to be a little colder than normal but not very much.

    Two forecasters (Sryanbruen and waterways) could give a location for their snowfall forecast, that is worth all of one point out of the three available in that super-bonus, let's say by Saturday 3rd at end of day. I hope everyone noticed that the snowfall can occur on either 24th or 25th to include Christmas Eve. The Dublin temps are for the 25th only.

    Once again, I will beg for more entries to the seasonal contest, in a separate thread, deadline looming.

    November scoring will be on my plate as soon as I get going here on Friday (morning) evening. I expect the annual scoring to be very tight and will have a look at implications for December forecast differences.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    And we're off with -5.9 in Gurteen yesterday!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Table of forecasts for December 2016

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Dub 25th __ Snow

    Lumi _____________ 6.2 _ 13.7 _ --6.5 _ 108 _ 083 _ 10.0 _ 0.0 ___ no
    Tae laidir __________5.7 _ 14.9 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 095 __ 8.7 _-1.0 ___ no
    200motels _________5.6 _ 13.5 _ --5.1 _ 110 _ 082 __11.0 _ 2.0 ___ no

    NormaL ___________ 5.4 _ 15.0 _ --5.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 9.0 _ 1.0 ___ no
    Pauldry ___________ 5.3 _ 14.1 _ --7.8 _ 089 _ 116 __ 8.8 _ 4.4 ___ no
    MrSkinner _________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ --6.4 _ 082 _ 111 __ 8.6 _ 0.6 ___ no
    Sunflower3 ________ 5.1 _ 15.1 _ --5.9 _ 090 _ 110 __ 8.4 _ 2.2 ___ no
    Joe Public __ (-4) ___ 5.0 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 099 _ 099 __ 9.9 _-1.9 ___ no
    Dacogawa _________ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ --8.3 _ 084 _ 102 __ 3.9 _-4.1 ___ yes DublinA
    Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 12.5 _ --7.0 _ 125 _ 090 __ 8.0 _ 3.0 ___ no
    dasa29 ____________5.0 _ 10.5 _ --8.5 _ 110 _ 100 __ 4.0 _-4.0 ___ yes Knock
    jd ___ (-2) _________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --7.9 _ 082 _ 119 __ 5.0 _-5.0 ___ yes DublinA

    Consensus _________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _ --7.5 _ 085 _ 110 __ 7.5 _-1.6 ___ no

    M.T. Cranium _______ 4.9 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 080 _ 120 __ 6.4 _-2.0 ___ yes B'haise
    Jpmarn__(-2) _______4.9 _ 14.2 _ --7.5 _ 095 _ 105 __ 9.0 _-1.3 ___ no
    waterways _________ 4.7 _ 13.6 _ --9.1 _ 085 _ 109 __ 4.5 _-1.0 ___ yes
    Rameire ___________ 4.7 _ 12.3 _ --7.0 _ 062 _ 112 __ 8.0 _-2.7 ___ no
    john mac ___________4.6 _ 13.5 _ --7.2 _ 097 _ 110 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ yes Knock
    Rikand _____________4.5 _ 15.0 _ --8.0 _ 080 _ 125 __ 5.0 _-4.0 ___ yes B'haise
    DOCARCH __________ 4.3 _ 14.2 _ --7.6 _ 068 _ 115 __ 9.1 _-0.3 ___ no
    sryanbruen _________ 4.2 _ 15.0 _ --8.2 _ 050 _ 130 __ 4.0 _-6.0 ___ yes
    Kindred Spirit _______ 4.0 _ 14.0 _ --9.0 _ 075 _ 125 __ 7.0 _-3.0 ___ no
    mickger844posts _____4.0 _ 12.0 _ --7.2 _ 060 _ 130 __ 7.0 _ -2.0 ___ no
    BLIZZARD7 __ (-6) ___2.7 _ 13.8 _ -14.7 _ 075 _ 125 __ 2.4 _-8.0 ___ yes DublinA
    __________________________________________________

    Given the frosty start, the consensus IMT running below normal is not surprising, this probably means on average that most of the forecasters believe the average will be at or slightly above normal from 6th to end of month. The range of MIN forecasts is fairly small other than one outlier and is influenced by what is obviously already in the books. The consensus also runs dry and sunny, continuing on from November but less marked. As for the Christmas speculation, that looks to be a little colder than normal but not very much.

    Two forecasters (Sryanbruen and waterways) could give a location for their snowfall forecast, that is worth all of one point out of the three available in that super-bonus, let's say by Saturday 3rd at end of day. I hope everyone noticed that the snowfall can occur on either 24th or 25th to include Christmas Eve. The Dublin temps are for the 25th only.

    Once again, I will beg for more entries to the seasonal contest, in a separate thread, deadline looming.

    November scoring will be on my plate as soon as I get going here on Friday (morning) evening. I expect the annual scoring to be very tight and will have a look at implications for December forecast differences.

    Oh sorry, then Ballyhaise is my guess.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    -5.9c at Moorepark

    Low for the month according to nobody so there must be another freeze coming after the mild spell coming


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    Oh just saw that. It's too late now. So take it as more than one location and I couldn't decide which one will get it first. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    The forecasted high temperatures looks like going over a degree over the consensus in this months contest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Finner Camp logged a Max of 14.6 yesterday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Sposed to be 16 today.


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