Wind Warning for Ireland - Storm Georgina

Meteorite58 · 22-01-2018 12:35am #1

Thought it might be an idea to start a thread to see how this develops.

The 18Z GFS has brought the small fast moving deepening depression to our doorstep now running up along the W and NW coast on Tues night/ Weds morning. Another wet and windy night in store. The GFS has been increasing the intensity of the winds over the last few runs and looks like widespread gusts of 80-100 km/h overland atm, perhaps some pockets of 100-110 km/h on the coasts. At the early stage of development when it passes us so missing the stronger winds that will develop when it moves past Scotland. One to watch I think as can be unpredictable.

rLixAMq.gif?1

Strong jet over Ireland Tues /Weds

Rise in Temps initially Tues evening followed by a drop off behind the front bringing in colder sourced air.

Meteorite58 · 22-01-2018 12:59am

ECM 12Z perhaps showing stronger winds than the GFS, Widespread gusts 100-110 km/h and areas more towards the coasts and high ground getting up to 120 km/h.

weisses · 22-01-2018 11:24am

Could it be the speed of the jet stream that causes these systems to reach full potential after passing Ireland ? or is it just coincidence ?

Oscar Bravo · 22-01-2018 12:47pm

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland

Southwest winds are expected to reach mean speeds of between 55 and 65 km/hr, gusting to 110 km/hr at times on Tuesday night.

Issued:

Monday 22 January 2018 11:00

Valid:

Tuesday 23 January 2018 20:00 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 06:00

Meteorite58 · 22-01-2018 6:40pm

Nearly all the models showing very windy weather for Tues night/ Thurs morning across Ireland ( Hirlam 06Z not as windy ) with fair agreement between the models of the track and intensity . Will come down to the wire to know where is going to get the most wind and if some counties or coastal areas will get an orange warning .Blustery day on Weds.

ARPEGE 12Z Gusts

GFS 12Z

ICON 12Z

Meteorite58 · 22-01-2018 6:44pm

ECM 850 hPa Wind speeds

Meteorite58 · 22-01-2018 7:12pm

weisses wrote: »

Could it be the speed of the jet stream that causes these systems to reach full potential after passing Ireland ? or is it just coincidence ?

Just in my amateur opinion : In this case just coincidence I would think in that the depression is just forming off Ireland between the cold polar air and the Southern mid Latitude air and the fast jet creates more turbulence ( eddies ) underneath helping to form LP's giving them more spin and in this case rapidly.

GFS shows well the depression deepening rapidly on Tues and again coincidentally another area of LP on Weds evening / Thurs and this time filling giving blustery conditions.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 12:22am

Icon 18Z perhaps gives readings a tad high but still showing the top end of yellow warning if not touching Orange warning ( gusts between 110-130 km/h ) on coastal counties tomorrow night/ Weds morning. Shows at least a yellow warning ( gusts 90-110 km/h )across Ireland with the chance of higher gusts maybe?

Fast moving but looks to pack a punch.

Remaining blustery on coasts during Weds.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 12:28am

ARPOGE 18Z run showing widespread gusts across Ireland between 90-100 km/h, perhaps 100-110 km/h on some coasts .

ECM 12Z Showing widespread gusts 90-100 km/h and plenty of 100-110 km/h gusts overland and higher gusts over higher ground.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 12:48am

12Z WRF-NMM HI Res model showing very strong gusts over the E briefly before the the strongest winds clear the coast.

18Z WRF Strong winds along coasts especially the S and SE

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 12:57am

Jet Stream. Predicted very strong over Ireland Tues into Weds.

Oscar Bravo · 23-01-2018 12:57am

John eagleton on radio 1 just now "there will be some stormy conditions tomorrow night followed by a blustery day on wednesday" he didnt elaborate on any details

Villain · 23-01-2018 9:02am

A rough night ahead, the Wexford coast will get good battering but nothing it hasn't seen before.

Say my name · 23-01-2018 9:46am

Villain wrote: »

A rough night ahead, the Wexford coast will get good battering but nothing it hasn't seen before.

Hopefully the ESB are a bit quicker to respond/prepare and get the man power here than the last time.
I don't fancy being without power for 6 days again like Ophelia and Darwin before that.

pauldry · 23-01-2018 2:28pm

Biblical hail and wind in Sligo currently totally out of the blue.

Temps gone from 12.3c to 7.2c in 10 mins

Is this the start of this evenings event

redsteveireland · 23-01-2018 2:35pm

pauldry wrote: »

Biblical hail and wind in Sligo currently totally out of the blue.

Temps gone from 12.3c to 7.2c in 10 mins

Is this the start of this evenings event

Is it not about 7 hours too early? Just a typical squally January shower I'd say.

lolie · 23-01-2018 3:15pm

Some fairly wild gusts hear in s cavan in the last hour or so.

pauldry · 23-01-2018 3:19pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Is it not about 7 hours too early? Just a typical squally January shower I'd say.

thats what i thought too.

was a beautiful morning till that

gone now again but squall showed on radar like you say

Darwin · 23-01-2018 4:11pm

We're now on an Orange wind warning with a named storm Georgina to boot!

pad199207 · 23-01-2018 4:14pm

Darwin wrote: »

We're now on an Orange wind warning with a named storm Georgina to boot!

I thought we already had Georgina?

sdanseo · 23-01-2018 4:16pm

From met

Wind Warning for Ireland
A depression now named Storm Georgina will track to the northwest of the country tonight. Southwest winds will reach mean speeds between 65 and 80 km/h, gusting up to 120 km/h for a time tonight.

Issued:Tuesday 23 January 2018 14:00
Valid:Wednesday 24 January 2018 00:01 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 05:00

Darwin · 23-01-2018 4:16pm

pad199207 wrote: »

I thought we already had Georgina?

No, the wind storm last Wednesday night (17th) was never named.

Gaoth Laidir · 23-01-2018 4:16pm

Flying into Dublin at 11 pm tonight. Hope there's no delay as wind gets pretty bad later on in the night; direction 200-210, but with gusts from a more veered direction it could be a problem for both runways, especially if the runway's wet.

TAF COR EIDW 231127Z 2312/2412 23020G32KT 9999 SCT018 SCT030
TEMPO 2312/2315 24024G38KT
BECMG 2316/2318 23015KT
BECMG 2319/2321 20013KT
BECMG 2321/2323 19020G34KT
TEMPO 2322/2404 7000 -RA BKN013
BECMG 2323/2401 20028G47KT
TEMPO 2401/2403 21032G52KT
BECMG 2401/2403 23029G47KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2402/2404 5000 RA
BECMG 2403/2405 23025G40KT
BECMG 2405/2407 23018G32KT
TEMPO 2407/2412 23023G37KT
TEMPO 2409/2412 -SHRA SCT018CB=

Meanwhile, here in Rome it's amazing weather. Clear skies, calm winds, high teens.

sdanseo · 23-01-2018 4:18pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Flying into Dublin at 11 pm tonight. Hope there's no delay as wind gets pretty bad later on in the night; direction 200-210, but with gusts from a more veered direction it could be a problem for both runways, especially if the runway's wet.

TAF COR EIDW 231127Z 2312/2412 23020G32KT 9999 SCT018 SCT030
TEMPO 2312/2315 24024G38KT
BECMG 2316/2318 23015KT
BECMG 2319/2321 20013KT
BECMG 2321/2323 19020G34KT
TEMPO 2322/2404 7000 -RA BKN013
BECMG 2323/2401 20028G47KT
TEMPO 2401/2403 21032G52KT
BECMG 2401/2403 23029G47KT
PROB40 TEMPO 2402/2404 5000 RA
BECMG 2403/2405 23025G40KT
BECMG 2405/2407 23018G32KT
TEMPO 2407/2412 23023G37KT
TEMPO 2409/2412 -SHRA SCT018CB=

Aren’t they still resurfacing 10/28 also, meaning landing 16?

squarecircles · 23-01-2018 4:20pm

Can someone amend the thread title to ORANGE WARNING

downwiththatsor · 23-01-2018 4:23pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Can someone amend the thread title to ORANGE WARNING

No specific areas mentioned in warning so is it to be equally strong countrywide?

Gaoth Laidir · 23-01-2018 4:23pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Aren’t they still resurfacing 10/28 also, meaning landing 16?

That's what I mean. 200-210 is no problem for 16, but with gusts likely from more like 230-240 then it's in that no-man's-land direction.

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2018 4:35pm

Interesting much stronger winds expected for west Highlands, NW Scotland and theyre on a yellow..

arpegeuk-11-29-0.png?23-12

ninebeanrows · 23-01-2018 4:38pm

Arpege doesn't really get to Orange level winds

arpegeuk-11-18-0.png?23-11

Gaoth Laidir · 23-01-2018 4:40pm

Aviation pressure warning for Shannon FIR

EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 231515/232115 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 996HPA AND 978HPA IN THE SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF N5300 AND W OF W01200=

JCX BXC · 23-01-2018 5:40pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That's what I mean. 200-210 is no problem for 16, but with gusts likely from more like 230-240 then it's in that no-man's-land direction.

Is 230-240 not the same for 28 as 200-210 is for 16?

Runway works are often cancelled when weather gets poor.

Irishsneachta · 23-01-2018 5:48pm

downwiththatsor wrote: »

No specific areas mentioned in warning so is it to be equally strong countrywide?

The text forecasts say northern and western counties and the SÉ coast will see the worst but yeah blanket warning for country

Edit - Latest update doesn't mention above areas

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 6:07pm

ECM 0Z showing gusts 110-120 km/h fairly widespread. The latest model runs showing the strongest winds arriving a bit earlier and crossing the country slower than previous runs.

850 hPa winds

piuswal · 23-01-2018 6:14pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That's what I mean. 200-210 is no problem for 16, but with gusts likely from more like 230-240 then it's in that no-man's-land direction.

Whats the runway direction at DA?

weisses · 23-01-2018 6:19pm

Is ME acting up again ? ... latest Rainfall radar is stuck at 15:00

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 6:20pm

The ECM 0Z would probably match the Warning for tonight more than the other models apart from perhaps the ICON. Of course Met Eireann have the expertise and tons of data available to them and I am wondering if they are concerned of getting winds stronger then are showing up on the models what with the nature of the storm developing so quickly with a strong Jet overhead?

squarecircles · 23-01-2018 6:22pm

I think this will take many by surprise,given its last minute nature.

sdanseo · 23-01-2018 6:23pm

piuswal wrote: »

Whats the runway direction at DA?

There are two serviceable runways each with 2 ends, the first is RW10/28 which runs slightly offset from east/west, the second 16/34 which is slightly offset from north/south.

The runway number is equivalent to the first two digits of the compass heading in which it points. E.g. RW28 points in direction W 282 degrees.

The issue of course is that 10/28 which is the main runway is closed nightly for resurfacing at the moment.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 6:32pm

The GFS shows a pressure of 988 hPa at 18Z and 963 hPa at 06Z, a drop of 25 hPa in 12 hrs. The ECM showing similar.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 6:36pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/955822009644175360

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/955823945659371520

Soccarboy11 · 23-01-2018 6:37pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/955822009644175360

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/955823945659371520

the comments on that thing.. god. I wonder what would happen if we had no models, no meteorologists and only the 'common sense' which is required. Frighting the elderly, I think its helping them and stopping them from potentially going into a lot of danger. I would much rather be safe then sorry.

squarecircles · 23-01-2018 6:40pm

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

the comments on that thing.. god. I wonder what would happen if we had no models, no meteorologists and only the 'common sense' which is required. Frighting the elderly, I think its helping them and stopping them from potentially going into a lot of danger. I would much rather be safe then sorry.

Gosh,I'm glad I don't use Twitter,I never knew the level of stupidity within the general Irish public.

How can a name,a name! For the love of Christ,cause so much consternation,is beyond me.

Irishsneachta · 23-01-2018 6:44pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Gosh,I'm glad I don't use Twitter,I never knew the level of stupidity within the general Irish public.

Journal.ie is even worse. There will be a warning for a specific part of the county, people not in the warning area will complain it didn't happen and they were wrong.

gozunda · 23-01-2018 7:08pm

Irishsneachta wrote: »

Journal.ie is even worse. There will be a warning for a specific part of the county, people not in the warning area will complain it didn't happen and they were wrong.

Darwin was right ....

gabeeg · 23-01-2018 7:44pm

gozunda wrote: »

Darwin was right ....

Careful.

We already have an active climate change debate that's depressing enough, we really don't need one on evolution

Gaoth Laidir · 23-01-2018 8:05pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Is 230-240 not the same for 28 as 200-210 is for 16?

It is, but only for gusts. The mean wind would still be much more along 16. With a mean wind of 230 then 28 is best as the gusts will be more down the runway.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 8:13pm

Will stick the rainfall warning in here also.

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo and Clare
Rainfall totals 25 to 35mm expected.

Issued:Tuesday 23 January 2018 11:00
Valid:Tuesday 23 January 2018 22:00 to Wednesday 24 January 2018 10:00

M.T. Cranium · 23-01-2018 8:18pm

I think this strong wind situation will hit the south coast more so than further north despite the track of the low, the isobars tighten more noticeably around Kerry and Cork than further north (2300h peak winds there) and this continues on to the east.

Dublin region may see some variations due to windshadow effects with this SSW to SW direction. I expect to see a range of observations when this comes through although it may be past midnight so might be only a few hands on deck.

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 8:41pm

12Z ECM out now,not too dissimilar to the 0Z.

Yes Southern counties look to get the longest sustained strong winds

Going to be some racket from the wind driven rain overnight as the front passes over.

sword1 · 23-01-2018 8:46pm

Is that three weeks of named storms on Tuesday now?

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2018 9:01pm

Mod Note: De Bild. Your last three posts were deleted as they could be deemed to be offensive. Please refrain from such phraseology .

Wind Warning for Ireland - Storm Georgina

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