STORM POTENTIAL 31st Oct - 3rd Nov.

Sunday 28th looks rather windy also ... it's too far off and too uncertain at present to raise much of an alarm for 31 Oct to 3 Nov but risk is being watched. Low confidence in details or timing beyond Monday.

Northeast U.S. about to get slammed by "Sandy" in time frame of 28-31 Oct, anyone with travel plans to NYC, BOS or region should be aware of possible flight delays or cancellations. This could be a high impact storm.

Models are showing a low system to our North. About 110hrs to 120hs out.

GFS is a bit more extreme than the rest with 964 center:rolleyes:. UKMO & ECMF have it at 976.

Interesting one to watch.

Met eireann forcast for tuesday

Ghost Train wrote: »

Met eireann forcast for tuesday

Current 12z GFS shows potential for 60-70 mph WNW wind gusts in Galway, Mayo and Donegal, nearby parts of other counties, on Thursday ... at this time range, not much point in a mid-day advance alert in forecast thread but will have one for certain if this model trend continues.

"Sandy" will largely die out in a sort of cage being created for her over Hudson Bay and Quebec, some of that energy will escape into the blocked westerlies as they ooze through gaps around Newfoundland, but most of Sandy's energy will be dissipated into the arctic vortex around Baffin Island, so this stormy activity over Europe later in the week is all caused by the retrogression of upper features involved in the Sandy scenario, opening up a void over the Atlantic between Iceland and Ireland that energy dropping southeast from very high latitudes (probably with a Pacific origin way back) can exploit.

In my research model, energy peaks at full moon (the current frontal trough) and northern max (timed for 2-3 Nov) are often significant for storminess in the North Atlantic near timing lines, at present the relevant timing line for western Europe is North Sea to central Med. Thus timing of energy peaks will be on the order of -24h relative to signals. I keep track of oscillations in these timing lines and the mean position of the one in question is further west so that long-term the signal can be expected to phase with low pressure signals over Ireland, for example this proves to be the case for full and new moons in Dec-Jan at Malin Head which I have already finished studying for the period 1973-2011. The pressure amplitude was surprisingly large, about 15 mb over that time period in the two months closest to phase of full moon and northern max, as well as new moon and southern max.

I'm throwing this into the discussion because I may from time to time insert comments like "new moon event crossing timing line 3" and timing line 3 is the one relevant to your region, I number them from the prime system timing line in the Great Lakes region eastward around the hemisphere. Timing line 2 is often aligned from eastern Newfoundland to the Azores. All of them are curved to converge on a point similar to the North Magnetic Pole. There are 9 in total (this is entirely empirical rather than theoretical) and as they encircle the hemisphere, I have timing line 8 off to my west and timing line 9 over the lee trough of the Rockies.

Timing line 4 may feature in some discussions because it runs on average from Jan Mayen to the eastern Baltic to the Caspian Sea and if the entire system is shifted west then it can be as close as east Iceland to Shetlands to Germany.

Bottom line for now -- gale alert 70% likely for Thursday 1st Nov

Model chop and change cycle has now brought us to a very windy outlook for Thursday and Friday. Feeling the need to post a strongly worded alert in the forecast section.

ECM develops a very tight low centre north-west of Scotland Friday.

Harps wrote: »

Yeah looks like an interesting spell ahead at long last, its been almost totally calm so far this Autumn

Doesn't look too severe on current guidance but its a messy looking setup so there could be a surprise in store yet. High tides at the moment and trees still have a lot of leaves so its one to watch

On a somewhat related note, HIRLAM data seems to no longer be available, says on meteociel says they're stopping releasing free data, a real loss if its gone everywhere

They are rolling out a new model, i think the old Hirlam is being replaced by new Harmonie model. Maybe they will provide some data once it is released?

Hopefully anyway, see no reason why they would not provide some basic data sets.

Its quite windy in Galway tonight, although it's the 30th so possibly unrelated to this weather prediction you're all talking about.

Victor Meldrew wrote: »

MTC has used the "S" word several times in today's forecast, for next week (Sunday & Monday)

And the site has not gone into meltdown....

Oh it will happen

Storm 10 wrote: »

Just wondering where Sandy goes from now, is there any possibility of its remains heading in our direction

I saw someone say it was progged to go north of Scotland, the remenants that is

"I made a knickerman with the kids today" just doesn't have the same ring to it

thunderknickers :eek:

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Knickers possible on high ground with wet knickers at sea level.

Winner

airman737 wrote: »

Knickerflakes, knickerploughs, knickerstorm.......

Slushy knickers,knickers starting to stick,I think we may use a different code word-the imagery is a bit too :eek::eek:

Should we now call the Isle of Man the.....

...Knicker Blocker Glory????

There is a whiff of knickers in the air today..........

Gets coat. Calls taxi, and leaves.

Urgent to mods -- update thread title my suggestion

Level 2 ... Severe wind gusts likely in north on Thursday, may repeat Saturday

Urgent to readers ... model consensus now shows potential for very strong wind gusts in Donegal, Mayo and other parts of Connacht, Ulster on Thursday, arriving mid-day and translating east and southeast by evening.

May not be as severe in west Munster as a track from Donegal Bay to Dublin can be inferred from guidance.

Wind gusts to 120 km/hr (75 mph) appear possible, with wind-driven hail showers, snow on hills, almost a blizzard condition possible at higher elevations of northwest.

Saturday could be a total reload with Friday in between a more moderate strong wind continuation once the Thursday night gusts settle down.

Over to forecast thread for update now.