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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Looking a bit windier now from late Weds night in the W, initially SW'ly and veering W'ly, into early Thurs morning in Connacht and Ulster and continuing blustery through the day, possibly another windy spell later Thurs evening in the W.
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Models eased of on wind speed on earlier runs but back up slightly again, not as high as yesterday. Looks like the second front tomorrow evening could be the windiest part of the day. On average probably still under yellow warning leve for the moment anyway but still a strong steady airflow gusting 60 to 70 km/h overland, bit higher on coasts
Winds look like coming from a Southerly direction until the afternoon, veering SW'ly and looks like veering sharply to NW as the front goes through before backing again to the W into Fri morning.
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ECM has eased off the wind speed late Weds into Thurs. Not showing it reaching yellow warning level on this run. Other models a bit higher but nothing out of the ordinary. Fresh across the country and blustery on the coasts. ECM has increased the predicted rainfall a bit.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Big storm out in the Atlantic, filling as it gets closer to Ireland, our weather over the next day or so will be from fronts associated with this system.
Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.0 -
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Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.
Looks like ye had a fairly strong jet helping along a good bit of the way. Out of interest where was the worst turbulence ? About half way across by any chance ?
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IMO the models fairly aligned now with the track , strength and duration of winds for next Monday and Tuesday. Strongest on coasts, maybe up to around 100km/h on coastal fringes for a time early Monday , up to 90 km/h more general on Atlantic coasts and probably up to 80 km/h or so inland for a time as the front crosses the country by the afternoon.
Rainfall not excessive but will be squally /blustery on Monday as the front crosses the country quickly.
Tuesday the winds could be stronger in Connacht and the NW with more sustained strong winds 80 to 100km/h overland there and up to 80 km/h elsewhere. Rainfall heaviest in W Connacht and Donegal, for the rest of the country not showing excessive rainfall at this stage.
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Tuesday also sees extremely warm uppers crossing the country, possibly +12 or +13C uppers. In the summer these could get us close to 30C under the right conditions.
As this is January, the middle of winter and with rain expected, these should get the temperature to 13C or possibly slightly higher.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Looks like ye had a fairly strong jet helping along a good bit of the way. Out of interest where was the worst turbulence ? About half way across by any chance ?
It was a case of seat belt sign on for 80% of the flight. The middle third was definitely the most turbulent.0 -
Would appear to me that the highest winds Monday are very much reserved for Atlantic coastal fringes especially the W. Blustery across the country as the front goes through, cleared by mid afternoon.
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Flew from Orlando to Dublin last night and it was the most turbulence I’ve experienced for quite a while flying through that. On the plus side the nice tail wind got us in an hour early.
The SigWx chart for that time showed a large area of moderate to severe turbulence in the mid-Atlantic (areas marked [6] and [7] below). Moderate up to 45,000 ft (area 6), moderate-severe between up to 42,000 ft (area 7). It looks like your flight flew through this area at 38,000 ft, so right through the thick of it.
Further back, there was a strong jet streak of above 150 knots along the US east coast.
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Sleety_Rain wrote: »We must not overlook potential for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Models been struggling to handle the wave development, still good number of solutions going for a nasty feature near our south coast.
Just moved your posts over to this thread Sleety_Rain as the other is more for +120 hrs ie in the more unreliable.
You are very right Sleety , the models have been increasing the wind speed on that small deepening fast moving low and bringing it further N over Ireland on each run early Thurs morning. ICON leading the way in track over Ireland and wind strength. ARPEGE coming out now , we will see what it does, so far keeping the strongest winds offshore, will the winds come in closer and strengthen on this run like the rest?
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A lot happening over the coming week including possible strong winds Fri into early Sat morning, quite wet and looking like pulling in cold air behind the fronts
ICON showing very heavy rain over the weekend.
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EURO 418Z powering up that Low for early Thurs and showing possible sleety precipitation I reckon out in front as it moves into the colder air. ECM showing a fast jet acting as a conveyor belt.
Would want to see the ECM follow this and ICON in order to verify . EURO4 can certainly overdo the wind speeds and rainfall predictions, but is quite good and a useful model at the off.
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Models have mostly backed off the very windy conditions early Thurs morning apart from EURO 4 and ICON bringing strong winds close to the coast. Still a deal of uncertainty. Models are showing a second low that could bring windy conditions to the SW Thurs evening.
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Charts in broad agreement with windy wet weather Fri evening into Saturday. Looks very wet in the W, NW and over high ground in the SW.
Possible yellow warnings along some Atlantic counties and possible rainfall warning in the W
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Monday coming into the more reliable time frame. Been very consistent showing strong winds from the fronts associated with the storm positioned between Ireland and Iceland. This is the GFS 12Z take on it, quite similar for a number of runs. Would bring very strong winds across Ireland , maybe close to storm force on coasts.
Mean winds
Gusts
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models have backed off a bit on the severity of the storm, small secondary low forms behind and sweeps up the Irish Sea. looking forward to the cold westerlies that push in after the storm has past.
Yes continues to show less strong winds on Monday, strongest winds with gales on the coasts.
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Tuesday looks to have potentialy more wind as a fast moving deepening depression is showing at present to move quickly up over the country by both GFS and ECM . ICON and GEM showing something similar also.
Jet having a hand in this one.
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As alluded to by Met Eireann in their weather advisory issued in the last while for next week, an intensification of a core of very strong winds on the GFS 12 Z off the west coast on Monday which has been popping up regularly on runs for the past number of days - Monday another day to watch...
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Pressure building Sat and HP well established by Sunday, will be welcome after all this bad weather, hope there is some clear skies and sunshine, models show it around for a number of days up to around Thurs.but those charts better in the FI thread !
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HP holding out up until Thurs or Fri. Very little precipitation showing up , some mist and drizzle in places at times and Northern counties catching some light rain at times but many places staying dry.
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ICON 18Z showing the biggest winds now moving off the SE / E coasts and showing a dump of snow Monday in Northern counties from a front as it reaches the colder air.
ECM shows some accumulations mainly in the W and NW mainly over high ground.
A lot going on and am thinking we could be seeing big changes in the charts over the coming days, the cold looks to be there, all depends where the moisture comes from and the timing. Interesting
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Meteorite58 wrote: »ICON 18Z showing the biggest winds now moving off the SE / E coasts and showing a dump of snow Monday in Northern counties from a front as it reaches the colder air.
ECM shows some accumulations mainly in the W and NW mainly over high ground.
A lot going on and am thinking we could be seeing big changes in the charts over the coming days, the cold looks to be there, all depends where the moisture comes from and the timing. Interesting
One prediction : There is definitely a Kermit Snow thread coming!0 -
GFS 18Z been showing a storm for Monday now for a number of days, but the ECM not having it. GEM showing something similar to GFS. UKMO now beginning to show disturbances turning up more towards Monday evening into Tuesday and getting quite disturbed.
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