Heavy Rain Friday-Saturday 03/04 & Risk of Snow Saturday 04

Gaoth Laidir · 02-03-2017 9:05pm #1

That low moving up the Irish Sea Friday early Saturday could be an interesting one. Looking at 850 hPa temperatures would misleadingly not signal much chance of snow, but the deep saturated sub-zero vertical profiles in the Arpege and WRF models hint at snow down to low levels away from the eastern coastal counties. The very strong temperature gradient from east to west means that the snowline will be high in the east (east-facing upper slopes there look like geting a pasting), but further west it will come down very quickly, meaning much of the midlands and north could see a lot of snow falling come Saturday morning.

The GFS is not as cold, however, so it remains to be seen exactly how it will pan out. The exact track of the low centre will have a huge bearing on whether this busts or not, but at the moment I would lean more towards snow than not.

Strong Life in Dublin · 02-03-2017 9:26pm

Hopefully we can get a bit of snow in Dublin

Snowbiee21 · 02-03-2017 9:37pm

Strong Life in Dublin wrote: »

Hopefully we can get a bit of snow in Dublin

We won't ! Midlands an west

Snowbiee21 · 02-03-2017 10:10pm

Is there really a need of a thread?

DOCARCH · 02-03-2017 10:13pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Is there really a need of a thread?

Because there might not be snow in Dublin?

mickger844posts · 02-03-2017 10:14pm

When Su starts a snow thread you have to sit up and take notice. Something interesting to watch anyway.

sunbabe08 · 02-03-2017 10:16pm

I'm here for snow with hope of something for cork city. As always

Snowbiee21 · 02-03-2017 10:19pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Because there might not be snow in Dublin?

Good one!

Snowbiee21 · 02-03-2017 10:35pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Because there might not be snow in Dublin?

That's why docarch , that's why

Gaoth Laidir · 02-03-2017 10:37pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Is there really a need of a thread?

We'll know this time Saturday.

pauldry · 02-03-2017 10:49pm

Quite cold for coming days id say some areas inland in North and West could get snow if even shortlived.

Snowbiee21 · 02-03-2017 10:50pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

We'll know this time Saturday.

Sure will!

Rougies · 03-03-2017 1:47am

Arpege 18z looking pretty healthy for the midlands on sat.

arpegeuk-45-46-0.png?03-00

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 6:45am

Lovely thread to wake to as rain batters down up here.. Thank you..

Rock Lesnar · 03-03-2017 7:48am

No mentiin of snow according to the BBC forecast there now, rain along the east coast most of the day

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2017 8:07am

We also need a level 1 alert for heavy rainfall in west Munster spreading to Connacht. I wonder if the OP or a moderator could amend the thread title, keeping a mention of snow on hills? I don't want to start a second thread.

GFS indicates 30-50 mm rainfall next 24-36h in parts of Cork, Kerry, Clare spreading to Galway, Mayo and then becoming more concentrated in north Mayo on Saturday. I think there is some potential for isolated areas of heavy rainfall in other parts of the country.

My take on the snow is that it would be most likely later Saturday and on all hilly areas where precip remains, the complexity of this system makes it difficult to give an easy answer to where and when but all higher terrain has some chance of seeing falls of snow at some point (starting today on highest summits only).

vicwatson · 03-03-2017 8:20am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

No mentiin of snow according to the BBC forecast there now, rain along the east coast most of the day

Met Eireann did for today -

"Cloudy with spells of hvy. rain & snow over high ground. Some thunderstorms also & hail. Temps. ranging 3 to 8C in freshening E to NE winds."

Rock Lesnar · 03-03-2017 8:42am

vicwatson wrote: »

Met Eireann did for today -

"Cloudy with spells of hvy. rain & snow over high ground. Some thunderstorms also & hail. Temps. ranging 3 to 8C in freshening E to NE winds."

sorry it was tomorrow i was on about and yeah as MT said Highest summits should see snow, but for the rest of us who dont live on top of the mountains

, it looks like rain

NellyJelly · 03-03-2017 8:44am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

sorry it was tomorrow i was on about and yeah as MT said Highest summits should see snow, but for the rest of us who dont live on top of the mountains , it looks like rain

Great. I love a bit of rain.

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 8:59am

NellyJelly wrote: »

Great. I love a bit of rain.

Awarding quote of the week to that post.. Listening to rain sheeting down up here..

M.T. Cranium · 03-03-2017 9:04am

Graces7, is your elevation of 400 in metres or feet?

I am wondering how to interpret your valuable observations. Also, are you on a north-facing or south-facing slope?

If you are at 400 metres then you might see your rain turning to snow at times.

fepper · 03-03-2017 9:49am

MT,your right about the rain here in Kerry,we are floating in water here

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 10:24am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Graces7, is your elevation of 400 in metres or feet?

I am wondering how to interpret your valuable observations. Also, are you on a north-facing or south-facing slope?

If you are at 400 metres then you might see your rain turning to snow at times.

Feet. At the base of steep high mountains on three sides, ie north west and east. The cottage like all good Irish cottages, faces south where the open land is. The land rises very steeply two small fields from the back of the cottage. I suspect this increases wind effect?

Very dramatic scenery.

When I drive up the track from sea level I can see the small cluster of cottages clinging to the base of the mountains.

There was a little snow on the garden last week but usually the same as the last place; mountains only snowy.

Will keep a close eye; the snow and rain make different roof music,

cml387 · 03-03-2017 11:16am

Whatever about snow, there's been absolutely torrential rain in Fermoy all morning.

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 11:33am

cml387 wrote: »

Whatever about snow, there's been absolutely torrential rain in Fermoy all morning.

Same here in Connemara. The garden is rapidly becoming a pond. The streams are a white glory cascading from the heights. 400 ft asl

Squatter · 03-03-2017 11:48am

Graces7 wrote: »

Same here in Connemara. The garden is rapidly becoming a pond. The streams are a white glory cascading from the heights. 400 ft asl

And ditto in West Cork (Sheepshead Peninsula), elevation 75 metres.

Although I have some reservations about the word "glory" - a bit too Wordsworthian for me!

HighLine · 03-03-2017 12:14pm

I really can't see the snow risk.. anywhere. I think Met Eireann have it wrong. BBC have nothing on their graphics - not even on the mountains.

Snow risk chart for Saturday below... this is the highlight.

Storm 10 · 03-03-2017 12:28pm

Torrential rain in Galway now

Gonzo · 03-03-2017 12:28pm

prepare for another dark, wet and miserable day tomorrow.

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 12:30pm

Squatter wrote: »

And ditto in West Cork (Sheepshead Peninsula), elevation 75 metres.

Although I have some reservations about the word "glory" - a bit too Wordsworthian for me!

I love Sheeps Head... said my goodbye to it just before i moved here.. drove all the way to the cafe.. had there been anywhere to rent there would have stayed.

Ah no these streams are a glory.. so far they fall and pure white the water against the bleak grey.

I stand and watch them ...

missfarmer · 03-03-2017 12:35pm

Consistent persistent prolonged showers here in North Cork. Upper Blackwater flooded. Can only get worse. I think the kids will be wadding/ swimming upstream from school.

Gaoth Laidir · 03-03-2017 12:41pm

HighLine wrote: »

I really can't see the snow risk.. anywhere. I think Met Eireann have it wrong. BBC have nothing on their graphics - not even on the mountains.

Snow risk chart for Saturday below... this is the highlight.

The risk shown in the two models mentioned in the first post has reduced in their latest runs and the focus of the precipitation has shifted. As mentioned, it could go either way. It seems it will go the other way now...

Zzippy · 03-03-2017 12:50pm

Graces7 wrote: »

I love Sheeps Head... said my goodbye to it just before i moved here.. drove all the way to the cafe.. had there been anywhere to rent there would have stayed.

Ah no these streams are a glory.. so far they fall and pure white the water against the bleak grey. I stand and watch them ...

Sounds like Inagh or Maam valley area... must be spectacular today!

leahyl · 03-03-2017 12:51pm

Has been pouring down since I woke this morning (6.45); it's a bad one out there today

Meteorite58 · 03-03-2017 12:53pm

Steady moderate and at times heavy rain in Tralee , coming up past 20mm since midnight .

Very heavy surface water, sides of the roads starting to flood. Water standing in fields.

pilly · 03-03-2017 12:54pm

leahyl wrote: »

Has been pouring down since I woke this morning (6.45); it's a bad one out there today

Any floods in Cork city?

Oneiric 3 · 03-03-2017 1:01pm

A wet morning in Tomb with rain getting heavier on gradual basis. Not much wind but what wind there is feels cold. Not pleasant when out on cig break.

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 1:01pm

Zzippy wrote: »

Sounds like Inagh or Maam valley area... must be spectacular today!

Near enough and yes it takes the breath away. Longing for the spring. I was teary eyed the day I left Sheep's Head. Been in that area ten years. Say hello for me..

Oneiric 3 · 03-03-2017 1:06pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Same here in Connemara. The garden is rapidly becoming a pond. The streams are a white glory cascading from the heights. 400 ft asl

I love the descriptive way you have of putting things Grace7

Really helps kick the imagination into gear.

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 1:08pm

pilly wrote: »

Any floods in Cork city?

Flood alerts starting to come onto aa roadwatch

https://twitter.com/aaroadwatch?lang=en

Cork of course..

RoisinD · 03-03-2017 1:10pm

NW Clare. Continuous rain, roads and fields flooding, some streams already overflowing, rivers ready to burst banks. Rainfall radar showing little respite. Not looking good for the rest of the day and that is without Sat, Sun forecast

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 1:10pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I love the descriptive way you have of putting things Grace7 Really helps kick the imagination into gear.

So grateful for the beauty here. Galway and especially Connemara are so utterly lovely and the sheer size and space...

Even in this weather! It is BAD out there!!!! Really is!

snowstreams · 03-03-2017 1:36pm

HighLine wrote: »

I really can't see the snow risk.. anywhere. I think Met Eireann have it wrong. BBC have nothing on their graphics - not even on the mountains.

The risk shown in the two models mentioned in the first post has reduced in their latest runs and the focus of the precipitation has shifted. As mentioned, it could go either way. It seems it will go the other way now...

The only place that i can see any amount of snow is on the tops of the mountains.
Looks like a foot is going to fall in the next 24 hours on most of the high ones in the west.
Top of Nephin

Oneiric 3 · 03-03-2017 2:57pm

Graces7 wrote: »

So grateful for the beauty here. Galway and especially Connemara are so utterly lovely and the sheer size and space...

Even in this weather! It is BAD out there!!!! Really is!

Connemara and west Galway in general is a beautiful area, but east of the Corrib, I dunno, I would call it more bland than beautiful. Hard to believe we live in the same county really.

pilly · 03-03-2017 3:00pm

Any update from our experts? I'd love a bit of snow tomorrow instead of the relentless rain.

Meteorite58 · 03-03-2017 3:05pm

No let up in rain here in Tralee , secondary roads with a lot of surface water and a few spots flooded.

Oneiric 3 · 03-03-2017 3:19pm

pilly wrote: »

I'd love a bit of snow tomorrow instead of the relentless rain.

Tomorrow looks touch and go, but still the small chance of some wet sleet or snow falling in any heavier bursts, There may be a very small window of opportunity late Saturday into early Sunday as a band of rain (and the forecast for this is very uncertain) pushes up against some pockets of colder air over the north midlands.

freezinglevel_048.jpg?2017030306

This complex low is just too complex to be certain of anything beyond 12 hrs.

horsefarm · 03-03-2017 3:25pm

What a really rotten day today. My fields are now completely waterlogged. Even if it snows, which I dont think will happen in Dublin by the sounds of it, it will be pointless on that soggy ground. Snow that doesnt stick serves no purpose!

ronnie3585 · 03-03-2017 3:30pm

An utterly abysmal day here in Galway city, cold and it's been tipping it down since morning. It looks from the radar like the front has stalled over us, we've more than a few hours of rain ahead of us:(

Just in time for the weekend too!

Graces7 · 03-03-2017 3:37pm

water water everywhere.... up in the sky, underfoot.... in the air we breathe.... In my hot water bottles and coffee mug..

Gonzo · 03-03-2017 3:48pm

just saw the forecast on RTE, looks like parts of the west and north-west could see continuous rain between now and Sunday evening with more showery outbreaks elsewhere.

Heavy Rain Friday-Saturday 03/04 & Risk of Snow Saturday 04

Comments