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Heavy Rain Friday-Saturday 03/04 & Risk of Snow Saturday 04

  • 02-03-2017 9:05pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,197 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    That low moving up the Irish Sea Friday early Saturday could be an interesting one. Looking at 850 hPa temperatures would misleadingly not signal much chance of snow, but the deep saturated sub-zero vertical profiles in the Arpege and WRF models hint at snow down to low levels away from the eastern coastal counties. The very strong temperature gradient from east to west means that the snowline will be high in the east (east-facing upper slopes there look like geting a pasting), but further west it will come down very quickly, meaning much of the midlands and north could see a lot of snow falling come Saturday morning.

    The GFS is not as cold, however, so it remains to be seen exactly how it will pan out. The exact track of the low centre will have a huge bearing on whether this busts or not, but at the moment I would lean more towards snow than not.

    nmmuk-2-44-0_xyx6.png

    nmmuk-1-42-0_uwi8.png

    sondagewrf_283_428_42_0_1488484888.png


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 487 ✭✭ Strong Life in Dublin


    Hopefully we can get a bit of snow in Dublin


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Hopefully we can get a bit of snow in Dublin

    We won't ! Midlands an west


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    Is there really a need of a thread?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,105 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Is there really a need of a thread?

    Because there might not be snow in Dublin?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    When Su starts a snow thread you have to sit up and take notice. Something interesting to watch anyway.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,174 ✭✭✭ sunbabe08


    I'm here for snow with hope of something for cork city. As always


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Because there might not be snow in Dublin?

    Good one!


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Because there might not be snow in Dublin?

    That's why docarch , that's why


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,197 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Is there really a need of a thread?

    We'll know this time Saturday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Quite cold for coming days id say some areas inland in North and West could get snow if even shortlived.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭ Snowbiee21


    We'll know this time Saturday.

    Sure will!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,617 ✭✭✭ Rougies


    Arpege 18z looking pretty healthy for the midlands on sat.

    arpegeuk-45-46-0.png?03-00


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,483 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Lovely thread to wake to as rain batters down up here.. Thank you..


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    No mentiin of snow according to the BBC forecast there now, rain along the east coast most of the day


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    We also need a level 1 alert for heavy rainfall in west Munster spreading to Connacht. I wonder if the OP or a moderator could amend the thread title, keeping a mention of snow on hills? I don't want to start a second thread.

    GFS indicates 30-50 mm rainfall next 24-36h in parts of Cork, Kerry, Clare spreading to Galway, Mayo and then becoming more concentrated in north Mayo on Saturday. I think there is some potential for isolated areas of heavy rainfall in other parts of the country.

    My take on the snow is that it would be most likely later Saturday and on all hilly areas where precip remains, the complexity of this system makes it difficult to give an easy answer to where and when but all higher terrain has some chance of seeing falls of snow at some point (starting today on highest summits only).


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,291 ✭✭✭✭ vicwatson


    No mentiin of snow according to the BBC forecast there now, rain along the east coast most of the day

    Met Eireann did for today -

    "Cloudy with spells of hvy. rain & snow over high ground. Some thunderstorms also & hail. Temps. ranging 3 to 8C in freshening E to NE winds."


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,836 ✭✭✭✭ Rock Lesnar


    vicwatson wrote: »
    Met Eireann did for today -

    "Cloudy with spells of hvy. rain & snow over high ground. Some thunderstorms also & hail. Temps. ranging 3 to 8C in freshening E to NE winds."

    sorry it was tomorrow i was on about and yeah as MT said Highest summits should see snow, but for the rest of us who dont live on top of the mountains ;), it looks like rain


  • Registered Users Posts: 23 ✭✭✭ NellyJelly


    sorry it was tomorrow i was on about and yeah as MT said Highest summits should see snow, but for the rest of us who dont live on top of the mountains ;), it looks like rain

    Great. I love a bit of rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,483 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    NellyJelly wrote: »
    Great. I love a bit of rain.

    Awarding quote of the week to that post.. Listening to rain sheeting down up here.. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Graces7, is your elevation of 400 in metres or feet?

    I am wondering how to interpret your valuable observations. Also, are you on a north-facing or south-facing slope?

    If you are at 400 metres then you might see your rain turning to snow at times.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,434 ✭✭✭ fepper


    MT,your right about the rain here in Kerry,we are floating in water here


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,483 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Graces7, is your elevation of 400 in metres or feet?

    I am wondering how to interpret your valuable observations. Also, are you on a north-facing or south-facing slope?

    If you are at 400 metres then you might see your rain turning to snow at times.

    Feet. At the base of steep high mountains on three sides, ie north west and east. The cottage like all good Irish cottages, faces south where the open land is. The land rises very steeply two small fields from the back of the cottage. I suspect this increases wind effect?

    Very dramatic scenery.

    When I drive up the track from sea level I can see the small cluster of cottages clinging to the base of the mountains.

    There was a little snow on the garden last week but usually the same as the last place; mountains only snowy.

    Will keep a close eye; the snow and rain make different roof music,


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,815 ✭✭✭ cml387


    Whatever about snow, there's been absolutely torrential rain in Fermoy all morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,483 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    cml387 wrote: »
    Whatever about snow, there's been absolutely torrential rain in Fermoy all morning.

    Same here in Connemara. The garden is rapidly becoming a pond. The streams are a white glory cascading from the heights. 400 ft asl


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,841 Squatter


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Same here in Connemara. The garden is rapidly becoming a pond. The streams are a white glory cascading from the heights. 400 ft asl

    And ditto in West Cork (Sheepshead Peninsula), elevation 75 metres.

    Although I have some reservations about the word "glory" - a bit too Wordsworthian for me!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭ HighLine


    I really can't see the snow risk.. anywhere. I think Met Eireann have it wrong. BBC have nothing on their graphics - not even on the mountains.

    Snow risk chart for Saturday below... this is the highlight.

    uksnowrisk.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Torrential rain in Galway now


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    prepare for another dark, wet and miserable day tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,483 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Squatter wrote: »
    And ditto in West Cork (Sheepshead Peninsula), elevation 75 metres.

    Although I have some reservations about the word "glory" - a bit too Wordsworthian for me!

    I love Sheeps Head... said my goodbye to it just before i moved here.. drove all the way to the cafe.. had there been anywhere to rent there would have stayed.

    Ah no these streams are a glory.. so far they fall and pure white the water against the bleak grey. ;) I stand and watch them ...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 31 missfarmer


    Consistent persistent prolonged showers here in North Cork. Upper Blackwater flooded. Can only get worse. I think the kids will be wadding/ swimming upstream from school.


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