By-Elections 2019

strandroad · 30-11-2019 8:04pm

I am happy to see that Verona Murphy miscalculated badly.

Muahahaha · 30-11-2019 8:17pm

strandroad wrote: »

I am happy to see that Verona Murphy miscalculated badly.

She would likely get returned in the general election next year- if FG let her run

road_high · 30-11-2019 8:32pm

strandroad wrote: »

I am happy to see that Verona Murphy miscalculated badly.

How so? She was FGs biggest vote getter today by a mile in her first run. So it’s clearly more a FG party issue than any issue with her. Byrne has also ran in numerous elections and not been successful before today.

McMurphy · 30-11-2019 8:43pm

No seats for FG at all?

road_high · 30-11-2019 8:49pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

No seats for FG at all?

Not one but two extremely poor and jaded out of touch candidates in Reilly and Burke. How any in FG thought of running either is mystifying and symbolic of a disconnection between the party top brass and the general public

Peregrine · 30-11-2019 8:50pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

No seats for FG at all?

Nope. Reilly has been eliminated in Fingal.

McMurphy · 30-11-2019 9:29pm

Peregrine wrote: »

Nope. Reilly has been eliminated in Fingal.

Not surprised at that one at all, but I honestly thought Higgins basically was basically a formality, (leo won't be happy at the shinners stealing his thunder) and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

Reilly surely has the message by this stage that he's a political has been.

road_high · 30-11-2019 9:39pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Not surprised at that one at all, but I honestly thought Higgins basically was basically a formality, (leo won't be happy at the shinners stealing his thunder) and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

Reilly surely has the message by this stage that he's a political has been.

Varadkar had a woeful campaign, he’s been an non event really- certainly does not bode well for his chances of re-election. He actively undermined Verona Murphy coming out with ridiculously naive statements like “it’s too late to deselect her..”- despite her being his best by election performer by some way. In a war you get in and defend your foot soldiers especially as what she said was so tame but hijacked by the PC brigade who are like the Gestapo for thought control in this country

brick tamland · 30-11-2019 9:52pm

duffman13 wrote: »

Emer from what I can see went very very big on social media advertising but didn't engage with people after posting a video. A lack of substance from my POV, I went to school with her and would have been tempted to vote there but genuinely don't think she's ready for it yet. Some of the hateful ****e posted was pretty rough on some of the videos.

As for Ward, he's got a good standing in the community and seems to have a hand in everything. He might pull a seat at the next GE at the expense of big Gino Kenny which might not be a bad thing. They'll both be depending on the same vote tbh! Surprised at Gogartys performance too

FG will struggle in the constituency, they'll need to run Emer again IMO, there's no one else there but the higher turnout will work in her favour i think.

Will SF run 2 candidates? Will be intetesting to see. Risks splitting the vote and losing both seats imo.

Will be interesting next year alright. Cant see Gino getting back in. Curran will struggle too. Can see Paul Gogarty getting a seat.

SEPT 23 1989 · 30-11-2019 9:55pm

I am embarrassed that a man that can hardly string a sentence together is representing me in the Dail

A GE can’t come soon enough

r93kaey5p2izun · 30-11-2019 10:10pm

I'm from DMW and the result is as expected. North Clondalkin has had a good turnout for several years now - hence Gino being elected. Turnout was low across the board this time, but no lower in the North Clondalkin area. And Ward has had a huge presence in the area since he was co-opted a few years ago. He's like a local celebrity at this stage.

Gogarty is well liked in Lucan and Palmerstown and is very active as a councillor.

I personally was surprised that FG selected Higgins. She is popular in Clondalkin village according to the LE results, but she's unknown in the rest of the constituency and actually very unlikable. They need a Lucan based candidate to pick up the big FG vote there I think. I think Lucan people want a Lucan TD now more than a FG TD even if FG voters, so they chose Gogarty. FG spent years building up William Lavelle then he disappeared, but Vicky Casserly is popular locally and I think she would do better than Higgins if they built her profile.

Loafing Oaf · 30-11-2019 10:14pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

Based on what?

Byrne was odds-on favourite for weeks, IIRC every pundit I read predicted he would take the seat

Galwayguy35 · 30-11-2019 10:17pm

Was surprised at how well the Greens did in Dublin Fingal.

strandroad · 30-11-2019 10:26pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Was surprised at how well the Greens did in Dublin Fingal.

Dublin's choking and FG doesn't care. You want someone to defend Luas Finglas when they try to shelve it to indulge some NIMBYs.

charlie14 · 30-11-2019 10:27pm

Good day for Greens FF and SF. OK day for Labour
Bad day for FG. Especially Fitzgerald`s seat going to SF has to really sting.
Murphy coming third after FF and Labour has a bit of a sting as well.

Be interesting to see if they will even run Higgins and Murphy in the GE

Galwayguy35 · 30-11-2019 10:54pm

strandroad wrote: »

Dublin's choking and FG doesn't care. You want someone to defend Luas Finglas when they try to shelve it to indulge some NIMBYs.

I don't really see how the Greens will solve the problems you've outlined there.

blanch152 · 30-11-2019 11:12pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Not surprised at that one at all, but I honestly thought Higgins basically was basically a formality, (leo won't be happy at the shinners stealing his thunder) and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

Reilly surely has the message by this stage that he's a political has been.

Not a bit surprised at all. Once there was a low turnout, FG were always going to suffer.

Ward got the O’Broin vote, so meaningless for the General Election, O’Sullivan took the Kelliher seat so no change in that Cork constituency in the general election.

Big one was O’Brien in Fingal, sets the Greens up for the main event.

Annasopra · 30-11-2019 11:14pm

For Forks Sake wrote: »

11th time's the charm.

https://electionsireland.org/candidate.cfm?ID=4218

He has run in more than that

winter2019 · 30-11-2019 11:19pm

The chickens are starting to come home to roost for FG. They’ll get wiped out whenever the next general election happens. I think the Maria Bailey incident, and the way Varadkar tried to sweep it under the carpet was the final straw for a lot of people.

road_high · 30-11-2019 11:26pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I don't really see how the Greens will solve the problems you've outlined there.

The Irish Greens solution to everything is slap on extra taxes and ban stuff. Virtually zero positive policies that will work for the ordinary joe soap. Can’t fathom why anyone wastes a vote on them

road_high · 30-11-2019 11:28pm

winter2019 wrote: »

The chickens are starting to come home to roost for FG. They’ll get wiped out whenever the next general election happens. I think the Maria Bailey incident, and the way Varadkar tried to sweep it under the carpet was the final straw for a lot of people.

I think there’s much bigger issues than Bailey tbh, she’s merely a symptom of their wider disconnect. Last budget for example was very disappointing for taxpayers as Leo had promised to prioritise work and make it pay

road_high · 30-11-2019 11:49pm

I think Varadkar is both politically naive and arrogant and not a good leader electioneer as we’ve seen. Lacks any common touch whatsoever and too concerned with pandering to the PC brigade rather than the ordinary taxpayer who keep the whole show on the road

Tea Shock · 30-11-2019 11:51pm

FGs problems started when they elected Varadkar as party leader. As soon as Kenny said he was going, the parliamentary party members fell over each other trying to be the first to kiss Varadkar’s arse. By the time the opinion polls cane out showing Coveney was more popular with the public, they couldn’t row back. Coveney was also far more popular with ordinary FG members but the weighting’s the parliamentary members votes got screwed him up. Varadkar was the wrong choice. It’s as simple as that!

road_high · 30-11-2019 11:59pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

FGs problems started when they elected Varadkar as party leader. As soon as Kenny said he was going, the parliamentary party members fell over each other trying to be the first to kiss Varadkar’s arse. By the time the opinion polls cane out showing Coveney was more popular with the public, they couldn’t row back. Coveney was also far more popular with ordinary FG members but the weighting’s the parliamentary members votes got screwed him up. Varadkar was the wrong choice. It’s as simple as that!

I think he’ll lose the next election (a certainty if based on today) and they’ll remove Varadkar. I think he’s been a failure and has had ample time. He’s reasonable on Brexit but then again he hasn’t had much real personal control of the circumstances. Some of his diplomatic skills are lacking majorly too. He’s always only comfortable with fellow liberal types like Trudeau and Macron, not good elsewhere

Annasopra · 01-12-2019 12:31am

Muahahaha wrote: »

She would likely get returned in the general election next year- if FG let her run

She says she will be running in the general election. I suspect FG might try to dump her. Charlie Flanagan and Leo Varadkar already putting some distance.

Loafing Oaf · 01-12-2019 12:52am

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

She says she will be running in the general election. I suspect FG might try to dump her.

They have two sitting TDs and would be very unlikely to be taking a third seat. I don't know enough about internal Wexford affairs to say whether she would be likely to displace one if them but the incumbent has an inbuilt advantage in these situations.

road_high · 01-12-2019 9:35am

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

She says she will be running in the general election. I suspect FG might try to dump her. Charlie Flanagan and Leo Varadkar already putting some distance.

Verona wasn’t the problem- she polled far far higher than any of the other turnips they ran in Friday. They’re deluded if they think her comments had anything to do with her not winning- it’s annoyance with the government that’s far far deeper. Leo and Flanagan were woeful throughout this by election. Like rabbits caught in headlights.
As for locally I think Verona will rightly feel like she was thrown under a bus by PC FG HQ and I think may run independent where she’ll be much freer to speak her and address the people’s real concerns without party shackles. Kehoe and Darcy certainly won’t want her threatening their patch as there’s not really 3 FG seats in WX

ThunbergsAreGo · 01-12-2019 9:48am

road_high wrote: »

The Irish Greens solution to everything is slap on extra taxes and ban stuff. Virtually zero positive policies that will work for the ordinary joe soap. Can’t fathom why anyone wastes a vote on them

Yeah if the recent (unmerited) media love in has shown anything it's that they don't really have any new or actually tangiable ideas. Wouldn't waste a vote on them, I get taxed enough.

Unless of course you are a wolf

Galwayguy35 · 01-12-2019 10:40am

SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

is_that_so · 01-12-2019 10:45am

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

One seat doesn't make an election! Their average numbers suggest they won't be. Turnout was really poor and it was just a single seat competition.

Augme · 01-12-2019 10:47am

I think Fianna fail will be the big winners in the next election, and the greens. They will both take advantage of the drop in support for Fianna gael.

road_high · 01-12-2019 10:49am

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

Lol. No! By elections are completely different as you have the full party vote access to a single candidate ie Obroins personal vote. It won’t happen next time- running two is very risky as you could end up with zero seats

is_that_so · 01-12-2019 10:50am

Augme wrote: »

I think Fianna fail will be the big winners in the next election, and the greens. They will both take advantage of the drop in support for Fianna gael.

None of that has happened yet if you follow polls. FF may turn out to be the biggest party, but not big winners and if the Greens get 6 seats that will be huge.

Horsebox9000 · 01-12-2019 11:36am

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

Hahahahaha

r93kaey5p2izun · 01-12-2019 12:02pm

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

SF could be the big winners in the General Election if the result of this BE is anything to go by.

I hardly think so. Even in DMW where they won, they only increased their vote share by 1 3%. There was already a big SF vote in the area - Eoin O'Broin topped the poll and was elected on the first count in 2016. Nothing has changed at all here and I would see no great gains for SF based on the result here. I find it really difficult to fathom that commentators didn't see this coming as the most likely result, rather than some unexpected upset.

01-12-2019 12:18pm

Jermaine Nutritious Mourner wrote: »

I hardly think so. Even in DMW where they won, they only increased their vote share by 1 3%. There was already a big SF vote in the area - Eoin O'Broin topped the poll and was elected on the first count in 2016. Nothing has changed at all here and I would see no great gains for SF based on the result here. I find it really difficult to fathom that commentators didn't see this coming as the most likely result, rather than some unexpected upset.

Yep. And the effect that Gerry Adams has on voters in sink areas of a constituency like Dublin West has to be seen to be believed! Seemingly he canvassed selected areas of the constituency in recent days. The only trick that SF missed was getting Conor McGregor to join the canvass!

charlie14 · 01-12-2019 12:35pm

Jermaine Nutritious Mourner wrote: »

I hardly think so. Even in DMW where they won, they only increased their vote share by 1 3%. There was already a big SF vote in the area - Eoin O'Broin topped the poll and was elected on the first count in 2016. Nothing has changed at all here and I would see no great gains for SF based on the result here. I find it really difficult to fathom that commentators didn't see this coming as the most likely result, rather than some unexpected upset.

Eoin O`Broin did top the poll in 2016 with 22.69% but SF only ran one candidate whereas FG ran two and got 26.37% of the vote so on those figures and it being Frances Fitzgerald`s and SF not having performed well in the local elections, I can see how commentators believed it was FG`s seat to lose.

road_high · 01-12-2019 1:11pm

171170 wrote: »

Yep. And the effect that Gerry Adams has on voters in sink areas of a constituency like Dublin West has to be seen to be believed! Seemingly he canvassed selected areas of the constituency in recent days. The only trick that SF missed was getting Conor McGregor to join the canvass!

Mary Lou desperately needed a win and the kitchen sink and more was thrown at it- did they run limos to the polling stations I wonder?

is_that_so · 01-12-2019 1:17pm

charlie14 wrote: »

Eoin O`Broin did top the poll in 2016 with 22.69% but SF only ran one candidate whereas FG ran two and got 26.37% of the vote so on those figures and it being Frances Fitzgerald`s and SF not having performed well in the local elections, I can see how commentators believed it was FG`s seat to lose.

To an extent but she is down to run in the GE, so this was a test run and she did OK. Not sure what you can make of it, as a GE has a whole other dynamic. O'Broin and probably Curran to get back in but after that it's guesswork. Gogarty, Higgins and Ward would all hope to figure and Kenny would hope to keep his seat. Can't really see SF being able to hold two seats though in a 4 seater off their numbers.

r93kaey5p2izun · 01-12-2019 1:40pm

I think it's FF who should be most worried in DMW. Their vote disappeared completely. Yes, Curran would attract more votes than Moynihan, but where did the core FF votes disappear to? I think SF would have a chance of taking a second seat if they can target Gino Kenny's vote with Mark Ward, but it would be risky to run two. Right now North Clondalkin has two TDs in the Dáil, and I don't think that's sustainable - in a full GE it would be one or the other.

Augme · 01-12-2019 2:40pm

is_that_so wrote: »

None of that has happened yet if you follow polls. FF may turn out to be the biggest party, but not big winners and if the Greens get 6 seats that will be huge.

The problem with the polls is that it doesn't take into account transfers. I expect the green party will be the most transfer friendly parrty of all which will have a big impact. Similarly, I think fine gael will be one of the least transfer friendly.

charlie14 · 01-12-2019 2:52pm

is_that_so wrote: »

To an extent but she is down to run in the GE, so this was a test run and she did OK. Not sure what you can make of it, as a GE has a whole other dynamic. O'Broin and probably Curran to get back in but after that it's guesswork. Gogarty, Higgins and Ward would all hope to figure and Kenny would hope to keep his seat. Can't really see SF being able to hold two seats though in a 4 seater off their numbers.

With over 26% last GE, unless the FG vote collapsed completely Higgins will definitely get a seat. Other than that the only change I would see is SF going after Kenny`s vote and splitting O`Brion`s looking to take two that could leave them with both or none.
Cannot see O`Brion going for that though, so highly likely no change.

brick tamland · 01-12-2019 2:55pm

People reading too much into the results of a few by-elections i reckon.

charlie14 · 01-12-2019 3:07pm

brick tamland wrote: »

People reading too much into the results of a few by-elections i reckon.

I doubt political parties, correspondents or anybody pays much attention to a mid term by election, but this is a bit different with it being four constituencies just a few months out from a general election.

PukkaStukka · 01-12-2019 4:24pm

Big shock for me wasn't the results, but the turnout. It was poor to put it mildly.

Talking to a party tallymany and there was something like 850 votes in one district here but less that 160 voted, which is below 20%.

ddarcy · 01-12-2019 4:59pm

Augme wrote: »

The problem with the polls is that it doesn't take into account transfers. I expect the green party will be the most transfer friendly parrty of all which will have a big impact. Similarly, I think fine gael will be one of the least transfer friendly.

Irish polls have a few biases in them where they overstate FG and understate FF. But unless you are a statistician/ mathematician you won’t get the true picture. Plus the media really can’t be expected to do a deep dive analyses of it.

You seem to be right though on transfers. I looked at this election and no one transferred to FG. That will be worrying for headquarters.

But you have to look at locals from a micro level. For the good points of FG: FG is certain of one seat in Dublin Midwest and that will be it. They were never going to win a bye election though. So Emer will be in the next dail or whomever FG run. FG also have no real hope of a second seat in Cork, so id say Burke has done enough to see himself as elected from there as well.

Fingal and Wexford will worry FG though. FG had every opportunity with the right candidate to win Wexford(and Murphy could actually have been a good candidate). They will probably keep the 2 but won’t gain anything. Fingal looks to be only a one FG seat as well. That is down to headquarters though for running two complete gosh!tes in the constituency.

So if you take a broad stroke from all of this you would say FG are in course for a similar seat count next time, but if take that very very lightly though as each constituency is different and things may actually change with Paschal in charge.

Billcarson · 01-12-2019 5:05pm

Augme wrote: »

I think Fianna fail will be the big winners in the next election, and the greens. They will both take advantage of the drop in support for Fianna gael.

And around in circles we will go. An absolute joke that the 2 parties ff and the greens that screwed us a decade ago will likely be back in. Ff out fg in,fg out ff in and so the sorry cycle keeps on going............

Billcarson · 01-12-2019 5:11pm

And as for those who dont bother voting, well then they get what they deserve .........

Snow Garden · 01-12-2019 5:13pm

The biggest problem for Fine Gael in GE20 is that the calibre of their TDs has been proven to be very poor in recent years. The likes of Farrell, Bailey, Verona Murphy, Madigan, Dara Murphy are giving the party a very bad name. They are all associated with insurance fraud and expense fraud. Then you have senators like Mulherin still trying to gouge the taxpayer after she lost her Dail seat.

Billcarson · 01-12-2019 5:17pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

The biggest problem for Fine Gael in GE20 is that the calibre of their TDs has been proven to be very poor in recent years. The likes of Farrell, Bailey, Verona Murphy, Madigan, Dara Murphy are giving the party a very bad name. They are all associated with insurance fraud and expense fraud. Then you have senators like Mulherin still trying to gouge the taxpayer after she lost her Dail seat.

Or perhaps there are people like me who have had their fill of fg regardless of the calibre of their TDs. I have had my fill of fg and ff I would love to see them BOTH destroyed at a general election but alas....

By-Elections 2019

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