STORM EVA Strong winds Wednesday 23rd. Gusts possible up to 120km/h

JCX BXC · 22-12-2015 1:32pm #1

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo and Clare
Southerly winds veering southwest of mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h gusting 100 to 110km/h expected, with stronger winds of mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h with gusts of 120km/h at times between 1600 and 2100hrs.
Issued:Tuesday 22 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 13:00 to Wednesday 23 December 2015 23:59

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
Southerly winds of mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h gusting 100 to 110km/h expected Wednesday evening and early Wednesday night.
Issued:Tuesday 22 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 13:00 to Wednesday 23 December 2015 23:59

23/12/15 12:00 UPDATE:

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
Southerly winds of mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h gusting 100 to 110km/h will develop this afternoon. Stronger winds of mean speeds of 70 to 80km/h with gusts up to 120km/h at times, are likely between 1600 and 2200hrs.

Issued:Wednesday 23 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 13:00 to Thursday 24 December 2015 01:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Limerick, Tipperary and Waterford
Southerly winds of mean speeds of 60 to 65km/h gusting 100 to 110km/h., will develop later this afternoon and evening.

Issued:Wednesday 23 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 15:00 to Thursday 24 December 2015 02:00

Storm 10 · 22-12-2015 1:50pm

Before the post gets started could I say well done to all our posters on here especially MT who flagged this so far out, well done guys you know who you are.

Graces7 · 22-12-2015 2:23pm

Just seen this on met ie..we will weather it somehow.. We always do! My reaction was " OH GOD!"

RobertKK · 22-12-2015 2:26pm

I just hope it doesn't veer anymore southerly.

franer1970 · 22-12-2015 2:38pm

Has this system been officially declared a named storm yet? BBC TV guy this morning said it probably wouldn't get that honour.
Maybe they're raising the bar so as not to run out of names before the season is through :rolleyes:

JCX BXC · 22-12-2015 2:40pm

franer1970 wrote: »

Has this system been officially declared a named storm yet? BBC TV guy this morning said it probably wouldn't get that honour.
Maybe they're raising the bar so as not to run out of names before the season is through :rolleyes:

Met Eireann issued a weather advisory at 12pm, but wasn't up until around 1pm

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Clare
A developing storm is expected to track to the west and northwest of Ireland later Wednesday and Wednesday night and will bring some severe winds to coastal counties of the west and northwest of Ireland. This storm has been named Eva, as there is an orange status wind warning in operation for counties Clare, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Donegal.
Issued:Tuesday 22 December 2015 12:00
Valid:Wednesday 23 December 2015 13:01 to Wednesday 23 December 2015 23:59

Villain · 22-12-2015 2:40pm

It has been named Eva

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 3:53pm

ECM shows gusts close to 130 km/h at times but just on the exposed coast.

Anything stronger than that looks unlikely.

Graces7 · 22-12-2015 4:06pm

Worst gales I ever experienced were when I lived on an Outer Northern Orkney island. One was gusts of up to 124 MILES an hour and I was feeding my stock in that, clinging to washing poles. You felt as if the skin was being flayed off your face and the huge rocks that got thrown up on the shore... a neighbours hen house literally took off. Whenever there is a gale it reminds me. I dread them frankly but we manage..

Mars Bar · 22-12-2015 4:21pm

My sister is flying in to Knock tomorrow afternoon. Could be a hairy one for her!

green and yellow · 22-12-2015 4:34pm

just looking at next tuesday (29th) and windguru giving 153kph gusts for the Donegal. that sounds very very bad.
it was windguru i saw it on.

SNNUS · 22-12-2015 4:37pm

You did not see that on Windguru by any chance?

JCX BXC · 22-12-2015 4:44pm

Mars Bar wrote: »

My sister is flying in to Knock tomorrow afternoon. Could be a hairy one for her!

Early afternoon, before around 2:30pm I doubt there should be any problems. After that you never know.

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 4:56pm

12Z GFS shows a more southerly secondary depression following on early on Christmas Eve which would bring a second round of strong winds.

30-515UK.GIF?22-12

Larbre34 · 22-12-2015 5:17pm

Christmas Eva? High fives to the two Mets!

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2015 5:17pm

Would say this is not trending towards a big event but would marginally verify the level 2 in the most exposed locations perhaps.

The reference to 29th -- the 06z GFS at 168h (about to be eclipsed by the 12z run) was showing an absolutely over-developed low west of the Mayo coast (moving north) with isobars so close together that they scream "cannot happen in nature" but for the record if the event did materialize just like that, gusts to 200 km/hr would be possible in exposed areas. I will edit in a comment on the 12z run when it goes past that time frame.

The models have been toying with major windstorm potential for days now, near the end of the month/year, spawned by what is more likely to verify, a very deep low in the west-central Atlantic that loops around between 30 and 20 W at some point taking aim at Iceland. The 06z GFS concept is a "secondary" that forms in the strong southerly gradient ahead of the same Atlantic low.

I sure hope it is wrong because the wind potential on the map is 1839-like for the west coast anyway.

(later edit) As noted by other posters in the meantime, the 12z GFS drops the worst of this and brings it in later, although it would be a level one sort of event for the 29th. Something to keep an eye on, for now the really severe potential is off the table rather than off the scale.

stooge · 22-12-2015 6:28pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

with isobars so close together that they scream "cannot happen in nature"
...
gusts to 200 km/hr would be possible in exposed areas
...
major windstorm potential
...
very deep low
...
wind potential on the map is 1839-like

Better hope journalists dont read this. They will be recommending evacuation to the moon for the 29th! Potential is there to get very messy though :eek:

Meteorite58 · 22-12-2015 6:29pm

Very clear edge to the cold front as it passes over with a drop off on wind speeds for a time untill the second low comes into effect after a couple of hours for parts of the country although winds lighter and very fast moving system. Wonder will the initall cold front produce squall lines ?

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 6:31pm

stooge wrote: »

Better hope journalists dont read this. They will be recommending evacuation to the moon for the 29th! Potential is there to get very messy though :eek:

It's already changed on the 12Z GFS. That potential really belongs in the FI thread because it's highly uncertain.

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 7:08pm

12Z ECM doesn't have that secondary low on Christmas Eve which the GFS had.

EURO4 doesn't have it either.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2015 7:17pm

So, I edited in a reality check on that earlier post ... thought it was worth a mention in case readers stumbled across it elsewhere without the qualifiers.

At the moment then it appears more like a minor ramping up of wind speeds on the 29th to easily-survived level one conditions.

To be Frank, I'm not sure if it gets a name or not.

dubal · 22-12-2015 7:20pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

So, I edited in a reality check on that earlier post ... thought it was worth a mention in case readers stumbled across it elsewhere without the qualifiers.

At the moment then it appears more like a minor ramping up of wind speeds on the 29th to easily-survived level one conditions.

To be Frank, I'm not sure if it gets a name or not.

Free puns too!

ninebeanrows · 22-12-2015 7:25pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM doesn't have that secondary low on Christmas Eve which the GFS had.

EURO4 doesn't have it either.

Good! I would like to land in Dublin on Xmas Eve morning!

Mars Bar · 22-12-2015 9:19pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Early afternoon, before around 2:30pm I doubt there should be any problems. After that you never know.

2:45 is her arrival time!

JCX BXC · 22-12-2015 9:42pm

Mars Bar wrote: »

2:45 is her arrival time!

Looking at the 5pm aviation forecast update, there's nothing to worry about (17knots Gusting 29kts between 1pm-3pm).

When the 11pm update is out, I will PM you and let you know of any changes.

maquiladora · 22-12-2015 10:51pm

18Z GFS again showing that second depression crossing the country early on Christmas Eve. Not buying it unless the other models show it.

JanuarySnowstor · 22-12-2015 10:59pm

Either way a serious amount of rain showing up on Christmas day.
Coinciding with high tides flooding looks possible

maquiladora · 23-12-2015 12:16am

Here's how that secondary depression on Christmas Eve looks at it enters the hi res NMM.

HIRLAM not buying it at all.

Pangea · 23-12-2015 1:47am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

To be Frank, I'm not sure if it gets a name or not.

Indeed Give it a name or not worth talking about

highdef · 23-12-2015 9:07am

Pangea wrote: »

Indeed Give it a name or not worth talking about

I think MT was speaking with a little bit of tongue in cheek with his comment as the next storm after Eva is Frank!

Strangegravy · 23-12-2015 9:57am

Ammmmmmm.... Ferry crossing from Holyhead at 2.30am Thurs morning. That's not looking good is it, is it likely to be cancelled do you think?

DOCARCH · 23-12-2015 10:10am

If it's the 'slow' ferry (i.e. one of the big ships) they very rarely cancel.

Villain · 23-12-2015 10:23am

Ah yes that is Ulysses so that might be OK, I wouldn't fancy it though

Strangegravy · 23-12-2015 10:27am

DOCARCH wrote: »

If it's the 'slow' ferry (i.e. one of the big ships) they very rarely cancel.

It's the Ulysses, which I think from looking at dep/arr times is the slower one. Not cancelled yet on the website, but others are around it. It's for the sister in law, I'll tell her to keep an eye on it and maybe have a back up plan or be prepared for a bit of a wait! Thanks guys.

Macy0161 · 23-12-2015 10:30am

Strangegravy wrote: »

It's the Ulysses, which I think from looking at dep/arr times is the slower one. Not cancelled yet on the website, but others are around it. It's for the sister in law, I'll tell her to keep an eye on it and maybe have a back up plan or be prepared for a bit of a wait! Thanks guys.

Jonathon Swift is the fast one - doesn't take much to cancel that tbh. Just had a look, and the Oscar Wilde (which is a slow one) has a few cancellations too.

DOCARCH · 23-12-2015 10:33am

I can't ever remember seeing the Ulysses being cancelled...that ferry operates up to Force 12...and then it's only cancelled due to passenger discomfort!!!

Strangegravy · 23-12-2015 10:49am

Villain wrote: »

Ah yes that is Ulysses so that might be OK, I wouldn't fancy it though

Oh absolutely... If it goes it'll be a seriously rough one!

ninebeanrows · 23-12-2015 10:51am

DOCARCH wrote: »

I can't ever remember seeing the Ulysses being cancelled...that ferry operates up to Force 12...and then it's only cancelled due to passenger discomfort!!!

Indeed, it being Christmas Eve it will 99.9% travel.

Pangea · 23-12-2015 11:00am

Crazy night here in Donegal, Wind, Thunder Hail, and the storm warning hasn't even come into force yet

coillsaille · 23-12-2015 11:15am

Had to laugh at the image RTE are using for the storm, alls that missing from it is a certain wind battered reporter. According to the caption we're in for 20kmh gusts!

Meteorite58 · 23-12-2015 11:41am

I wonder should Kerry be included in the orange warning for later in the evening ( probably 21.00 to midnight )

Mx7wlRf.gif?1

sideswipe · 23-12-2015 11:58am

Pity they didn't call this storm Elsa- might have been able to build a snowman.

ronnie3585 · 23-12-2015 12:27pm

sideswipe wrote: »

Pity they didn't call this storm Elsa- might have been able to build a snowman.

Let it go!

Gaoth Laidir · 23-12-2015 12:38pm

Warnings for the airports.

SIGMETs and WARNINGs

EISN SIGMET 04 VALID 231100/231500 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST W OF W01430 SFC/FL060 MOV E AT 40KT INTSF=
EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 231800/240300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2321/2323 S 30-35 MAX 45-50 FCST =
EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 231600/240300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2318/2321 S 35-40 MAX 55-60 FCST =
EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 231400/240000 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2318/2321 S 30-35 MAX 50-55 FCST =
EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 231500/232300 SFC WIND SSE 30-35KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2321/2323 S 35-40 MAX 50-55 FCST =
EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 231500/232300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2318/2321 S 30-35 MAX 45-50 FCST =

The Met Éireann windchart for 1800Z has 2000 ft winds of 75 knots at 55.0N 10.0W (i.e. around Belmullet).

squarecircles · 23-12-2015 12:43pm

Don't take risks.

JCX BXC · 23-12-2015 12:45pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Warnings for the airports.

SIGMETs and WARNINGs
EISN SIGMET 04 VALID 231100/231500 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST W OF W01430 SFC/FL060 MOV E AT 40KT INTSF=

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 231800/240300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2321/2323 S 30-35 MAX 45-50 FCST =

EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 231600/240300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2318/2321 S 35-40 MAX 55-60 FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 231400/240000 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2318/2321 S 30-35 MAX 50-55 FCST =

EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 231500/232300 SFC WIND SSE 30-35KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2321/2323 S 35-40 MAX 50-55 FCST =

EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 231500/232300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2318/2321 S 30-35 MAX 45-50 FCST =

The Met Éireann windchart for 1800Z has 2000 ft winds of 75 knots at 55.0N 10.0W (i.e. around Belmullet).

I'm not sure many here are able to decode the above message efficiently, could you help with the main points?

ronnie3585 · 23-12-2015 12:54pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Don't take risks.

Don't make unnecessary journeys.

ronnie3585 · 23-12-2015 12:59pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

I'm not sure many here are able to decode the above message efficiently, could you help with the main points?

EISN SIGMET 04 VALID 231100/231500 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST W OF W01430 SFC/FL060 MOV E AT 40KT INTSF=

Significant Meteorological Information 4, vaild from 11.00am to 3.00pm on the 23rd. Severe turbulance is forecast in the Shannon FIR (flight information region) west of W01430 (the co-ordinate) from the surface to 6,000 feet, moving east at 40 knots, intensifying.

Then the specific aerodrome warning are;

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 231800/240300 SFC WIND S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 2321/2323 S 30-35 MAX 45-50 FCST

Dublin airport, warning 1, valid from 6.00pm on the 23rd to 6.00am on the 24th, surface wind southerly 25-30 knots with a max of 40-45 knots. Between the hours of 9.00pm and 11.00pm becoming southerly at 30-35 knots with a max of 45 - 50 knots.

prunudo · 23-12-2015 1:14pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

I can't ever remember seeing the Ulysses being cancelled...that ferry operates up to Force 12...and then it's only cancelled due to passenger discomfort!!!

I'm nearly sure the Ulysses has never missed a scheduled service. Unless that has changed recently it definitely used to hold that record. Still though, wouldnt fancy being on it in winds up to force 12!

ComfortKid · 23-12-2015 1:15pm

Is it now the case that every gust of wind is going to be named "Storm ....." ?
I've made stronger farts than the last two storms like.. The only real storm I can remember in the last 10 years was Feb 2014.

Larbre34 · 23-12-2015 1:17pm

ronnie3585 wrote: »

Don't make unnecessary journeys.

And for pity's sake, don't swim in the Sea.

STORM EVA Strong winds Wednesday 23rd. Gusts possible up to 120km/h

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