Severe storm discussion 2 Oct

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2010 11:49am #1

From the Boards weather forum ...

For the benefit of boards members in general, just wanted to alert readers in County Limerick and the northern half of County Cork that a cluster of severe thunderstorms has formed near the Kerry-Cork border and is moving northeast at about 20-30 mph towards a line from Limerick city to Mallow.

If you're in that region, we'd appreciate getting any reports and would advise to take cover if threatening weather approaches (from the southwest). We already have one report from Kerry talking about multiple lightning strikes.

Will continue to watch this and report on progress including any "all clear" if the storm dissipates.

Expect some torrential rain, frequent lightning and hail possibly of damaging size with this storm. There is always the slight risk of a tornado and the possibility of seeing a funnel cloud especially near the southern end of this cluster. At the moment it seems to be further north than the city of Cork but people around the south of Co. Cork should be on alert too.

(edit at 1:30 pm -- as the storm front has moved east the thread title has been changed to alert readers in Tipps, east Cork and north Waterford ... see the last post in the thread for updates)

ronnie3585 · 02-10-2010 12:01pm

Wow, this looks pretty vicious!

Thanks for the heads up M.T., yet again you're first with the important info.

Darwin · 02-10-2010 12:02pm

Some very severe looking echoes on the Met IE radar at the moment. Yikes!

sunbabe08 · 02-10-2010 12:06pm

is it possible some of that might be heading towards cork city??

Iancar29 · 02-10-2010 12:31pm

Ah! IM SO JEALOUSE!

LOOKED at the radar sequence and it got pretty angry at half 11-12! :mad:

Send it up to north duiblin! ha

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 12:33pm

skipz · 02-10-2010 12:36pm

Sounds like fun for that part of the country, wish i was there:D

Anyone for a storm chasing session?

WolfeIRE · 02-10-2010 12:43pm

looking straight into Limerick City from mid clare at 12.40pm

very dark...pic doesn't do it justice

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2010 1:17pm

UPDATE _ 1:15 p.m.
__________________

The line of heavy showers and possible storms continues to move northeast and in the general direction of Tipperary and then Thurles in the next hour.

Although we have no reports on the forum, the worst of the storm so far has probably been around Newmarket, Mallow and rural areas around there towards the east and northeast.

The tail end of the line could graze Cork city soon, at the very least it should start to look rather ominous off to the northwest as this moves past, but Cork may eventually get some of this storm too.

Eventually Laois, north Waterford, Carlow and Kilkenny may be in line for some of this storm in 1-2 hours.

maquiladora · 02-10-2010 1:21pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ 1:15 p.m.
__________________

The line of heavy showers and possible storms continues to move northeast and in the general direction of Tipperary and then Thurles in the next hour.

Although we have no reports on the forum, the worst of the storm so far has probably been around Newmarket, Mallow and rural areas around there towards the east and northeast.

The tail end of the line could graze Cork city soon, at the very least it should start to look rather ominous off to the northwest as this moves past, but Cork may eventually get some of this storm too.

Eventually Laois, north Waterford, Carlow and Kilkenny may be in line for some of this storm in 1-2 hours.

Thanks for the update MT. In Kilkenny at the moment, blustery but dry here at the moment. Keeping an eye on the radar to see if anything develops to the SW of where I am.

ellieh1 · 02-10-2010 1:23pm

I am living in the suburbs of Limerick city, and am waiting patiently to see if any happens here. No sign of any storm yet though, just had a rain shower about 20 mins ago but nothing major happening here yet!

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2010 1:37pm

From the looks of the radar the stormy part of this line just missed Limerick city to the south and so you should be okay there. Sooner or later this line is going to pass someone who is on line and can let us know how it's behaving but as I look at the map it's mostly rural or hilly areas, and a few small towns in the path of it. I will edit the thread title shortly.

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 1:41pm

SIGMET issued for the Shannon FIR

EISN SIGMET 02 VALID 021044/021300 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR/UIR EMBD TS FCST WI 40NM OF LINE N5120 W01100 TO N5250 W00650 TOP FL300 MOV NE AT 20KT

"Valid from 1044-1300Z. Embedded thunderstorms forecast within 40 nautical miles of a line N5120 W01100 to N5250 W00650, Tops 30,000ft, moving northeast at 20 knots"

maquiladora · 02-10-2010 1:43pm

Short, fairly heavy shower here a minute ago. No thunder.

Danno · 02-10-2010 1:48pm

In Portlaoise ATM, a brief blustery shower. Nice structure to the shower clouds, set against a light grey sky. A lack of sunshine due to the high cloud appears to be holding back the potential for rapid shower development.

jprboy · 02-10-2010 1:48pm

Thundery rain here for most of the last hour, no thunder or lightning, though. Lightened off approx 10 minutes ago and almost stopped completely now.

carlmwan · 02-10-2010 2:35pm

its raining pretty heavy here in meath any chaance of us seen a good storm

gbee · 02-10-2010 3:11pm

Seems to have fizzled out.

No lightening detected in Ireland inside 40 minutes as of time of post. Sun trying to break through here.

maquiladora · 02-10-2010 3:17pm

Sun is out here too now but looking at the radar there is still some intense stuff from tipp down to west waterford.

sunbabe08 · 02-10-2010 3:36pm

there must be some sort of wall around cork city, cause not one of those showers have come near cork city.

flutered · 02-10-2010 3:41pm

unreal rain here near the butt of the galtees

Lumi · 02-10-2010 3:44pm

Torrential rain in galway city at the moment

Mothman · 02-10-2010 3:56pm

Earlier I had heaviest rain since July 2007 with recorded rain rate of 135mm/hr.
gutters overflowing everywhere.

I'm up to 20mm for the day with hail in the last shower just finished

jprboy · 02-10-2010 4:01pm

Heavy rain again here since approx 15.30

redsteveireland · 02-10-2010 4:10pm

Fionagus wrote: »

Torrential rain in galway city at the moment

looks like that one is heading for Deep Easterly....

www.met.ie
attachment.php?attachmentid=129609&stc=1&d=1286033406

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 4:20pm

Latest SIGMET shows states weakening

EISN SIGMET 04 VALID 021500/021700 EINN- EISN SHANNON FIR/UIR EMBD TS OBS WI 30NM OF LINE N5100 W01020 TO N5330 W00600 TOP FL300 MOV NE AT 20KT WKN

"Valid from 15-17UTC. Embedded thunderstorms observed withing 30 nautical miles of a line N51 W01020 to N5330 W006, tops 30,000ft, moving northeastwards at 20 knots and weakening"

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 4:23pm

The area of precipitation in east Limerick/western Tipperary is intensifying again and could give a few strikes soon.

ch750536 · 02-10-2010 5:16pm

Nothing here are all. Kids out playing soccer most of the day. Rained a couple of times.

bryaner · 02-10-2010 5:50pm

Coming down that hard in Navan that the sat is gone..

TheMilkyPirate · 02-10-2010 5:54pm

Torrential rain here in wexford town heaviest i've seen in a long time, Lost my sky signal and everything. No thunder though.

CarMuppet · 02-10-2010 5:58pm

At 14:10h today I was driving towards Inniahannon and hit a 'solid rain burst' around 1.5km on the Cork side. Up to that point there was no rain. You could see the road fuzzy in the distance due to the voilent rain hitting the road surface. Very weird. When we driving into it was like being in a car wash. Loads of people had pulled in with hazards on. I drove on slowly but it was over in around 750m !!!! Also on the 'other side' of this downpour the wind was very strong for a short while on the road. Then after another 500m the weather was fine again with dry roads. Never seen this before. Very cool though!

Deep Easterly · 02-10-2010 6:37pm

Some strikes along the Kerry coastline in the last hour:

http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

M.T. Cranium · 02-10-2010 6:39pm

Thanks for some interesting reports there. The first line we were tracking weakened after moving across Tipps, and a second cluster seemed to develop in roughly the same location as the first one and had roughly the same life cycle, if perhaps not as strong. Perhaps some news will surface about any other events with this cluster as some of the stronger radar echoes were around Mallow at the time that the storm report above was made. (from my look at a map, Mallow is about 50 miles northeast of where that report originated).

Meanwhile, radar now shows that the showery cells are expanding into more widespread but lighter-intensity rain so this alert is now considered to have expired totally, although some reports of heavy rain or lightning could continue from new cells developing in the southwest.

Storm 10 · 02-10-2010 6:40pm

Cant understand given the radar colors of the showers today that we have no reports of thunder, in Galway around 3pm it got so dark I thought this is it but no just torrential rain and flooding.

Why would a thunderstorm not develop in the conditions today.

maquiladora · 02-10-2010 6:46pm

Jean mentioned in this evenings forecast that there would be a continued risk for scattered thunderstorms this evening but would die out overnight.

Deep Easterly · 02-10-2010 6:54pm

M.T, is there any chance that this area of cloud currently off the west coast might bring anything?

or is it more likely to be yet another wave of utter disappointment?

CarMuppet · 02-10-2010 6:55pm

18:45h now and I'm in Riverstick co cork on a hill looking south west. Some oninous dark clouds rolling in. I wish I was more educated in weather phenomenon to name the cloud types! It feels humid and still. Better top up the old generator for tonight just in case

Looks like heavy rain in the distance to the SW. The clouds have a definate 'ridge' or 'border' running from South to north west.

EDIT: 19:00h heavy rain just started.

EDIT 02: 19:05h heavy rain stopped!

WolfeIRE · 02-10-2010 7:00pm

thankfully we missed the downpours over sw england. very intense
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

sunbabe08 · 02-10-2010 7:07pm

cool looking cloud coming over cork at the moment. heavy showers with it

sunbabe08 · 02-10-2010 7:35pm

well that turned into nothing

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 7:36pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

M.T, is there any chance that this area of cloud currently off the west coast might bring anything?

or is it more likely to be yet another wave of utter disappointment?

I'd say there's as good a chance as any earlier today. The 18Z Valentia sounding just out shows a slightly more unstable setup than 12Z, with warm moisture advection at low levels and slight cooling at mid-upper levels. With some lift from the Kerry mountains, it could turn nice.

2010100218.03953.skewt.gif

TheMilkyPirate · 02-10-2010 7:40pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

thankfully we missed the downpours over sw england. very intense
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

What do ye mean thankfully :pac:

Mmcd · 02-10-2010 8:21pm

I didn't notice this thread until now but there was some lightning and a few very heavy showers at around 1.30pm in south kilkenny close to the Waterford border. Was lovely clear fork lightening but I only saw three strikes!

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 8:23pm

The latest TAFs give PROB30 thunderstorms for Cork, Kerry, and Galway airports this side of midnight.

CarMuppet · 02-10-2010 9:09pm

Well as Sunbabe08 above said.... Looks like all the blackstuff amounted to nothing. Nice tame evening near Kinsale now. Pity.

.

Better luck elsewhere guys.

skipz · 02-10-2010 9:10pm

Su Campu wrote: »

The latest TAFs give PROB30 thunderstorms for Cork, Kerry, and Galway airports this side of midnight.

Will the eastern half get it then the next side of midnight?:)

Takeshi_Kovacs · 02-10-2010 9:25pm

Going by the radar it should be raining here now, but not a drop in sight

Deep Easterly · 02-10-2010 9:35pm

I may be reading this all wrong but it looks like a shallow low is developing to the SSW of Ireland:

seems to be heading for the SE of Ireland but again maybe I am seeing something that is not actually there.

eskimocat · 02-10-2010 9:44pm

Interesting to see where the weather warnings have been issued for across Europe for tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/

thetonynator · 02-10-2010 9:51pm

Had some moderate showers this morning, more or less dry all afternoon here.

Su Campu · 02-10-2010 9:56pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I may be reading this all wrong but it looks like a shallow low is developing to the SSW of Ireland:

seems to be heading for the SE of Ireland but again maybe I am seeing something that is not actually there.

I think that's a comma system, which will probably bring showers to the southeast later, but I think the chance of lightning is passing now as upper level warming is taking place, limiting deep convection. I think that system over Kerry and Limerick is as strong as it's going to get, no sferics from it so far and I'd say it'll stay that way.

We'll see what the KNMI classify that system to the south as in their 21Z Satrep

Severe storm discussion 2 Oct

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