Potential for extreme wind event Friday/Saturday

ninebeanrows · 26-12-2012 7:42pm #1

As a rapidly deepening Low races from our southwest, it is expected to come close to Ireland and potentially make a direct hit in some Western areas, the track will vary on the original waves track and timings of intensification etc.

However the low is in very developmental environment and regardless of its track is anticipated to deepen as a sub 950mb storm to our north-west by this weekend.

One to watch...

maquiladora · 26-12-2012 7:56pm

Evelyn mentioned stormy conditions on the TV forecast. Structural damage was mentioned.

Some strong winds coming in at the end of the 12Z NAE. 850 hpa winds up to 90kt off the southwest coast.

maquiladora · 26-12-2012 11:04pm

Scotland really gets the full force of that storm on the 18Z GFS.

850 hpa winds almost touching 200 km/h up around there at 57 hours.

Oscar Bravo · 27-12-2012 1:30am

A 0008 update from Met Eireann Headline : Very unsettled weather for the rest of December and in the first week of the New Year. Wet and windy at times, but relatively mild.

Friday night : Extremely windy at first, with very strong southerly winds and with a risk of stormy conditions and damaging winds in coastal areas of the west and north. Rain will clear eastwards early in the night to scattered showers and winds will veer southwesterly and east a little.

Saturday 29th December : Cold and windy, with bright spells and showers, the showers most frequent in Munster, Connacht and west Ulster, with a risk of hail and thunder. Max. 6 to 9 Celsius, with strong and gusty SW'ly winds. Further scattered showers overnight and very cold, but too windy for any significant frost. Min.. 1 to 4 Celsius.

Sunday 30th December : A mainly dry morning, with just a few scattered showers and breezy, with fresh and gusty W to SW winds. More persistent rain will spread from the southwest in the afternoon and evening, with strong southerly winds.

Monday, New Year's Eve : Brightening up, with sunny spells developing. Scattered showers also, most of them in the west and north. Max. 6 to 9 C., in a fresh to strong westerly wind. Cold overnight, with some frost.

New Year's Day : Cold, bright and mostly dry, but more wet and windy weather will spread from the Atlantic later in the day and overnight.

Further Outlook : Changeable and very unsettled weather continuing.

snaps · 27-12-2012 8:18am

Looks like it could be rough tomorrow now. looks like the future is very unsettled now for the immediate period.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 10:55am

06Z NAE has winds reaching up to hurricane force out at sea. Sustained 75mph winds.

It looks like we will miss the worst of it. Some strong winds along west and northwest coasts, but nothing too unusual for those places at this time of year. Very strong out at sea though.

eastmayo · 27-12-2012 2:16pm

I see met eireann have a status red for wind tomorrow eve with gusts up to 140kph in connacht..strong if that happens.

Weathering · 27-12-2012 2:16pm

hello people met.ie have a red warning out for 140kph winds. were are the discussions cant believe its so quiet

Storm 10 · 27-12-2012 2:44pm

Weathering wrote: »

hello people met.ie have a red warning out for 140kph winds. were are the discussions cant believe its so quiet

Agree never saw it so quite with what could be the strongest storm for a very long time, 140 kph is a hurricane force

delw · 27-12-2012 3:03pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Agree never saw it so quite with what could be the strongest storm for a very long time, 140 kph is a hurricane force

Because it's not happening in dublin

leahyl · 27-12-2012 3:18pm

Is it just wind or heavy rain also? Met seems to be mentioning just wind. I think heavy rain today but tomorrow night seems to be just a wind event

ZX7R · 27-12-2012 3:37pm

Weathering wrote: »

hello people met.ie have a red warning out for 140kph winds. were are the discussions cant believe its so quiet

Two probable reasons, one people are busy over Christmas holidays and the fact there is no mention of snow

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 3:37pm

Met Eireann has issued a Severe Weather Warning for Connacht, which seems to be a step higher than the Weather Advisory or Weather Alert that they usually issue for these type of things.

Issued at 27 December 2012 - 12:20

Severe Weather Warning

Severe weather warning for Connacht

Strong south to southwest winds during Friday will reach mean speeds of 70 to 90 kph at their peak during Friday evening with gusts of 120 to 140 kph likely.

Weather warning countrywide

Strong south to southwest winds during Friday will reach mean speeds of 50 to 70 kph at their peak during Friday evening with gusts of 110 to 120 kph likely. Winds strongest at the coast.

It has triggered a rare Red awareness level on Meteoalarm for Connacht tomorrow. Rest of the country in Orange.

Storm force winds certainly likely on some exposed coasts there, but inland and away from those areas (the majority of the people on here) it will be a lot less windy.

Sea Area:

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1200 Saturday 29 December 2012: Southerly gales or strong gales, with storm force winds and violent storm force gusts on Friday in the southwest, west and north, decreasing gale force southwesterly on Friday night. Occasional rain, drizzle and fog, clearing to showers on Friday night.

Wouldn't be shocked to see hurricane force being mentioned for Rockall/Hebrides on the shipping foreast tomorrow if the 06Z NAE is right.

12Z models out soon.

whiteandlight · 27-12-2012 3:40pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann has issued a Severe Weather Warning for Connacht, which seems to be a step higher than the Weather Advisory or Weather Alert that they usually issue for these type of things.

It has triggered a rare Red awareness level on Meteoalarm for Connacht tomorrow. Rest of the country in Orange.

Storm force winds certainly likely on some exposed coasts there, but inland and away from those areas (the majority of the people on here) it will be a lot less windy.

Sea Area:

Wouldn't be shocked to see hurricane force being mentioned for Rockall/Hebrides on the shipping foreast tomorrow if the 06Z NAE is right.

12Z models out soon.

Looks fairly serious. Must give the family a heads up on the west coast

Tactical · 27-12-2012 3:48pm

Will be following this one with interest, some interesting weather would be nice

Very little maritime traffic off the West coast of Ireland at the moment. AIS is showing one vessel entering the Shannon estuary and one vessel approx 150nm West of the Shannon estuary and Foynes Port indicating the arrival of a vessel on the evening of the 29th.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 3:59pm

Musicmental85 wrote: »

Looks fairly serious. Must give the family a heads up on the west coast

I'd say just tell them to keep an eye on the TV forecast this evening and be aware of it but no need for panic. The west coast would have seen a number of events over the past few years with similar or stronger wind speeds to what is being forecast with this, so it's not really anything too unusual for this area. Also, the models could still downgrade this anyway.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 4:31pm

12Z NAE, slightly weaker at sea, slightly stronger on the west coast.

There would be sustained winds of almost 100 km/h at Belmullet here for a time if this model is right. Certainly would be violent storm force gusts, maybe even close to hurricane force gusts. Thats if this model is right, and only in this very limited, exposed area. Nothing as severe as that elsewhere.

Weathering · 27-12-2012 4:35pm

wonder will M.T give us an update on this
What could inland donegal expect to see?

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 4:47pm

Weathering wrote: »

wonder will M.T give us an update on this
What could inland donegal expect to see?

Would depend upon how far inland, how exposed you'd be to winds from that direction, elevation. Probably nothing too severe. Maybe up to around 55-60 km/h sustained in places.

It's a glancing blow so it will be the west coast that gets the worst.

Weathering · 27-12-2012 4:55pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Would depend upon how far inland, how exposed you'd be to winds from that direction, elevation. Probably nothing too severe. Maybe up to around 55-60 km/h sustained in places.

It's a glancing blow to it will be the west coast that gets the worse.

Gust are usually double so you're right nothing too severe.
Maybe might change track and impact us more or even less
These systems are notoriously hard to pin I suppose
Would love a severe storm ha, keep my mind off this horrendous hangover
cheers for responding

Weathering · 27-12-2012 5:22pm

My twitter convo with bbc newsline weather

@NEWSLINEWEATHER Hi Cee,met.ie have a wind warning out for Ulster tomorrow. 140kph west C . Met office have nothing. will it be a storm in a teacup
Expand
8m BBC NEWSLINE ‏@NEWSLINEWEATHER
Strongest winds up the west coast and further south in the Irish Sea. Tomorrow night the north coast may be at risk! Cee

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 5:32pm

Weathering wrote: »

My twitter convo with bbc newsline weather

@NEWSLINEWEATHER Hi Cee,met.ie have a wind warning out for Ulster tomorrow. 140kph west C . Met office have nothing. will it be a storm in a teacup
Expand
8m BBC NEWSLINE ‏@NEWSLINEWEATHER
Strongest winds up the west coast and further south in the Irish Sea. Tomorrow night the north coast may be at risk! Cee

UK Met Office has a wind warning for Highlands & Eilean Siar. Doesn't really impact N.I. much because of the angle the winds are coming in at.

Bejubby · 27-12-2012 5:43pm

What time frame are we looking at here for winds to pick up?

I'm on the south east coast and going by the charts posted here I'm guessing gusts of up to 60 or 70 kmh. Would that be right?

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 5:53pm

Bejubby wrote: »

What time frame are we looking at here for winds to pick up?

I'm on the south east coast and going by the charts posted here I'm guessing gusts of up to 60 or 70 kmh. Would that be right?

Yeah southeast coasts could see some strong winds too tomorrow evening, not as severe as in the west though. I'd say gusts up to about 100 km/h are possible.

Bejubby · 27-12-2012 6:44pm

A bit of excitement anyway, better than current weather.

Call me Al · 27-12-2012 7:35pm

Are these north westerlies?

We are heading to Achill Island and we'd like to be prepared.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 7:39pm

Call me Al wrote: »

Are these north westerlies?

We are heading to Achill Island and we'd like to be prepared.

South to southwest winds.

Call me Al · 27-12-2012 7:42pm

maquiladora wrote: »

South to southwest winds.

Thanks.

Tactical · 27-12-2012 7:54pm

Met Eireann have downgraded the sea area forecast with the 1800 issue.

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1800 Saturday 29 December 2012: Southerly winds will reach storm force along western and northern coasts during tomorrow evening.

cyclops999 · 27-12-2012 8:03pm

How severe is this going to be

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 8:06pm

Tactical wrote: »

Met Eireann have downgraded the sea area forecast with the 1800 issue.

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 1800 Saturday 29 December 2012: Southerly winds will reach storm force along western and northern coasts during tomorrow evening.

Not sure it's much of a downgrade. The previous sea area outlook mentioned storm force winds on coasts too. This one doesn't mention violent storm force gusts, but if the sustained winds are going to be storm force then you'd expect the gusts to be possible violent storm force anyway.

There may have been some changes on the latest run of their model. Latest NAE still shows violent storm force sustained at sea anyway.

Will see if anything changes after the 18Z.

Tactical · 27-12-2012 8:08pm

@Cyclops999

Tactical wrote: »

Southerly winds will reach storm force along western and northern coasts during tomorrow evening.

The above gives the current sea area forecast and our resident forecasters on boards.ie give a pretty good forecast too.

If you give a read back through the posts you'll see how the models have developed and the forecasts that have followed.

Tactical · 27-12-2012 8:11pm

maquiladora wrote: »

There may have been some changes on the latest run of their model. Latest NAE still shows violent storm force sustained at sea anyway.

Will see if anything changes after the 18Z.

Agreed. Will await with interest the outcome of the models.

Pangea · 27-12-2012 8:15pm

Gerry on latest forecast didn't mention 140kmph like the met.ie did, but he did mention 120kmph gusts

Tactical · 27-12-2012 8:16pm

Gerry who?

Gusts of 120kph are still pretty respectable

Oh, you mean the Met Eireann forecast on the TV v's the Met Eireann website forecast. The Countrywide weather warning gives 120kph winds whereas the Region specific one is the one that mentions 140kph.

Bsal · 27-12-2012 8:21pm

Friday evening is looking a bit fierce alright

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 8:26pm

Pangea wrote: »

Gerry on latest forecast didn't mention 140kmph like the met.ie did, but he did mention 120kmph gusts

Maybe there has been a change on their latest model or maybe he is being a bit cautious. The warning on the website/meteoalarm hasn't been changed though.

During the last wind event a few days ago they changed the warning from 120 km/h gusts down to 100 km/h - and we ended up with a 131 km/h gust. It can be risky when the models change a bit!

Either way, I don't think it's going to be severe away from the exposed western coasts. Nothing different to the types of things we've seen here over recent autumns/winters. It will be nothing close to Dec 1998, for example.

Tactical · 27-12-2012 8:37pm

A re-run of December 1998 would be great

I agree, very hard to call it exactly as things turn out and I certainly won't be complaining if the actual weather is different from that forecast as I get great enjoyment out of following the unfolding story

If the models change rapidly it must be very hard to arrive at a forecast that gives accurate information without having to constantly change it in a dramatic fashion.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 9:06pm

Shannon, issued on Thursday 27 December 2012 at 1531 UTC
Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon, veering southwesterly and increasing violent storm 11 later

Rockall, issued on Thursday 27 December 2012 at 1531 UTC
Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon, veering southwesterly and increasing violent storm 11 later

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/gales_printable.html

Smidge · 27-12-2012 9:20pm

Will this be worse than the high winds last week?

Weathering · 27-12-2012 10:05pm

moon looks rather strange tonight
ominous

Weathering · 27-12-2012 10:08pm

should we have a separate thread for Sundays system?

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 10:13pm

Smidge wrote: »

Will this be worse than the high winds last week?

It could be a bit worse in some places along coasts. I don't think it will be as bad for inland areas though.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 10:22pm

Well there's still no change to the warning on the website, but the latest forecast mentions gusts up to 130 km/h now. So halfway between what Gerry said on the TV forecast and what the warning says. :P

Mild and very windy tomorrow. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain drizzle and fog in places, but some drier brighter periods also in parts of the east. More persistent and heavier rain in the west and northwest in the afternoon. Gale force south to southwest winds and some severe gusts of 90 to 130km/hr in places, highest in exposed parts of the northwest

As for Sunday, not sure about that yet. Doesn't look stormy at all on the 12Z GFS.

Weathering · 27-12-2012 10:44pm

Update from met eireann
Issued at 27 December 2012 - 21:37
Wind Warning
Gale force south to southwest winds developing during Friday with gusts of 90 or 100km/hr in exposed areas, but more severe gusts of 100 to 140km/hr are expected, for a time, in the late afternoon and evening, highest in exposed parts of Connacht and Donegal.

Valid 0900hrs Friday to 0300hrs Saturday

Rodar08 · 27-12-2012 11:01pm

Folklore has it that a ring around the moon signifies bad weather is coming, and in many cases this may be true. So how can rings around the moon be a predictor of weather to come? The ice crystals that cover the halo signify high altitude, thin cirrus clouds that normally precede a warm front by one or two days. Typically, a warm front will be associated with a low pressure system which is commonly referred to as a storm.
It is believed that the number of stars within a moon halo indicate the number days before bad weather will arrive. Give it a try the next time you observe a moon halo.

Sponge Bob · 27-12-2012 11:02pm

Chief Forecaster's Assessment

A particularly deep area of low pressure developing over the North Atlantic Ocean is expected to lie near Iceland this weekend. The associated frontal system will move across the UK during Friday and Saturday, bringing with it another spell of wet weather, accompanied by generally very windy conditions. The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected over higher ground on the western side of England and Wales. Here as much as 60 to 80 mm rain may fall over parts of northwest England and Wales. Over southwest England accumulations of 20 to 30 mm are possible.

maquiladora · 27-12-2012 11:04pm

18Z NAE downgrades the windspeeds.

Weathering · 28-12-2012 12:13am

seen the bbc fc. they had very little to say about it

Weathering · 28-12-2012 12:16am

Not sure how accurate this
Belmullet http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/Ireland/Belmullet/Wind.htm

maquiladora · 28-12-2012 12:45am

Potential for extreme wind event Friday/Saturday

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