Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2018 8:52am #1

This is within 120 hours so discussion should take place here.

Much colder weather directly from Greenland no less making a rapid entrance Monday - starting mild and wet but temperatures quickly collapsing from the northwest through the day. Showers increasingly of snow in the northwest by evening (accumulations likely here at this stage) extending nationwide with accumulations likely on Monday night and Tuesday. Coming over still relatively warm seas some beefy precipitation is highly likely with thunderstorms possible especially in western and southwestern counties.

Frost and ice inland away from western coastal counties with temperatures at or just below freezing. Snow will readily settle in these conditions.

During daylight temperatures may struggle form 1 to 4c at the very max - where snow lies closer to or at freezing

It should continue cold and wintry thereafter with a cold air mass prevailing and a continued risk of snowfall.

P.S some fronts may come close to southern areas at times which would enhance sleet or snow threat here occasionally.

booferking · 11-01-2018 9:13am

I'm firmly on the Greenland express can't wait.ðŸ˜

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2018 9:49am

JCX BXC · 11-01-2018 9:54am

I'd pour salt over that 120hr snow if I were you Kermit!

See what it's like in 36 hours and I may muster a little more hope.

DOCARCH · 11-01-2018 9:57am

ME very muted, at this point, for next week:

Cool, windy and showery, with some wintry showers in places.

gerrybhoy · 11-01-2018 10:05am

Kermit,i love all your posts regarding the snow,im like a big kid myself when it comes to the white gold,but dont take this the wrong way...your a bastarding Jonah of late

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2018 10:40am

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

BTW the forecast in the OP is pretty accurate so take the measures needed depending on your location.

gerrybhoy · 11-01-2018 10:58am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

BTW the forecast in the OP is pretty accurate so take the measures needed depending on your location.

Hows it looking for Dublin im clueless with models lad

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2018 11:02am

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Hows it looking for Dublin im clueless with models lad

You'll need a bit of luck away from the nw and north midlands I suspect.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-01-2018 11:11am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

BTW the forecast in the OP is pretty accurate

I'm not so sure. Countrywide snow? Whatever about the north, there's a huge difference in the south. Time will tell.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2018 11:18am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm not so sure. Countrywide snow? Whatever about the north, there's a huge difference in the south. Time will tell.

Yes, countrywide snow showers, even the south.

Far southeast could remain dry. Sorry guys. But it also may not. Hmmm

booferking · 11-01-2018 11:34am

Snow express in all its glory 6z run.

gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

Villain · 11-01-2018 11:57am

Could be nice for Northwest but in Carlow a Northwesterly never delivers except on higher ground.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-01-2018 12:04pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, countrywide snow showers, even the south.

Far southeast could remain dry. Sorry guys. But it also may not. Hmmm

If you're talking higher ground then maybe, but I'm talking to low levels. Sorry, I can't see any evidence of that on current data.

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2018 12:06pm

Never seen so much pink on a run as the 6z gfs. Some of the more exciting samples below. Still I find it hard to take gfs precipitation charts seriously. If every snow event they forecast for my area at 5 days out actually happened I would see snow 7 times a year. I last saw snow about 3 years ago. anyway, enjoying these for now...

I would add that there are plenty frames in between showing blue so I think even when it does snow it may get washed away a few hours later. still I'd expect decent lying snow north of a line from Galway to Belfast. Not hopeful for down here. Fleeting snow at best I suspect and similar prospects for Dublin. Down here we will certainly get the precipitation but sleety rain the most likely outcome. Dublin better for snow but may not get the precipitation.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2018 12:08pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If you're talking higher ground then maybe, but I'm talking to low levels. Sorry, I can't see any evidence of that on current data.

*saves post*

Billcarson · 11-01-2018 12:55pm

Pm air = poor man's cold. Snow likely for north and northwest along with hills,for the rest of us probably slush at best.

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2018 1:04pm

EC has snow falling to the surface Wednesday/Thursday with the the freezing level below 1000ft across the country, this is generally the threshold used to see if snow will make it the surface. Distribution of showers too difficult to determine now- but avoid taking any global model prediction as gospel.

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 1:38pm

not expecting much here in south Meath either. Most of the time precipitation fails to make it this far and when it does it's rarely more than a dusting, or some very transitional snow. So far this winter most of the cold spells were mild enough to produce precipitation here but we mostly ended up with cold rain or a sleety mess. The last time our area had proper snow from an Atlantic source was probably 1982 but that in itself is a once in a lifetime event.

JanuarySnowstor · 11-01-2018 1:58pm

Looks very good to me especially the 06 gfs
Favoured spots could get a right pasting with all areas likely to see at least some snow.

KingdomRushed · 11-01-2018 1:59pm

Yes, I’ve seen charts like this, entire country under ‘pink’ for snow again and again, and it’s always the same. High ground in mid ulster, Leitrim, Sligo etc get it good. Then at low levels in a few northerly spots to a depth of 2-3cm max. But everywhere else the NW flow won’t cut the mustard. Though I would expect a few pics of wheelie bins photographed at dawn with a cm of snow of them as proof that this event ‘delivers’ it won’t be much more than that.

booferking · 11-01-2018 2:00pm

Below is the chart for 29th Jan 2015 many places reported widespread snowfalls this time the mods look even better and lasted 3 days longer.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2015/archives-2015-1-29-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2015/archives-2015-1-29-0-1.png

munsterlegend · 11-01-2018 2:04pm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Yes, I’ve seen charts like this, entire country under ‘pink’ for snow again and again, and it’s always the same. High ground in mid ulster, Leitrim, Sligo etc get it good. Then at low levels in a few northerly spots to a depth of 2-3cm max. But everywhere else the NW flow won’t cut the mustard. Though I would expect a few pics of wheelie bins photographed at dawn with a cm of snow of them as proof that this event ‘delivers’ it won’t be much more than that.

Yep it usually works out like that with the gfs generally watered down and down run after run. People mention about the colder air from North America entering the mix so maybe that might improve our chances.

average_runner · 11-01-2018 2:18pm

Worry about this on Monday if needs be

pauldry · 11-01-2018 2:27pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'd pour salt over that 120hr snow if I were you Kermit!

See what it's like in 36 hours and I may muster a little more hope.

Or in Sligos case see what charts say 1 hour before

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 2:32pm

slightly OT but I just noticed RTE's lunchtime forecast has a new look with new graphics, map looks higher resolution and the 5 day outlook they were showing 0C for daytime on Monday and Tuesday with snow symbols over the west and north of the country.

highdef · 11-01-2018 2:33pm

The five day forecast at the end of the lunchtime news on Rte one showed wintry precipitation and a temp of 0c for both Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned before, those forecasts are extremely generic however the graphic was interesting.

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 2:38pm

highdef wrote: »

The five day forecast at the end of the lunchtime news on Rte one showed wintry precipitation and a temp of 0c for both Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned before, those forecasts are extremely generic however the graphic was interesting.

yep I very much doubt we will see a nationwide 0C on Monday and Tuesday during daylight hours, we rarely even get that from the best Siberian easterly's!. I reckon 2 to 5C will be average temps On Monday and Tuesday.

Gaoth Laidir · 11-01-2018 2:43pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

*saves post*

Save away. I hope your forecast does come to fruition, with tonnes of nice dry fluffy snow, however I'd be surprised to see any at low levels, except across maybe Ulster and maybe the north midlands briefly during the night. The temperature gradient between north and south is huge next week, so below 200 metres I don't expect any there.

derekon · 11-01-2018 2:47pm

Love your enthusiasm Kermit!

Folks (particularly newbies) - away from
high ground in the north and west, this will be a cold rain/sleet event and I certainly would not be telling people there is heavy snow on the way!!!

A wee bit of realism folks!!

D

ninebeanrows · 11-01-2018 3:02pm

The likelihood is the flow will not be as clean as the GFS is currently projecting. There will be more small scale disturbances in the flow and potential threatening low pressure systems passing across the country. So it will be modified from time to time- however when we do get that clean WSW flow i would expect snow to sea level away from the western coastal fringes where will more likely see hail etc. Certainly likely to be a lot of sferics.

patneve2 · 11-01-2018 3:14pm

While the progged 850s aren't impressive, temps at the 500 hpa level may be the difference between wet snow and accumulating snow below 200m - we need these to be sub -35 heading towards -40.

Nothing to get excited about for me due to the wind direction, but still looks like the most potent PM air flow in a few years in my opinion. Could verge on disruptive +15cm on higher ground in the North. Still a long way to go so it could still realistically end up as the usual run of the mill miserable NWesterly, but I still think it will be a bit better than that.

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 3:52pm

derekon wrote: »

Love your enthusiasm Kermit!

I certainly would not be telling people there is heavy snow on the way!!!

A wee bit of realism folks!!

D

That's the problem. Even a mention of the word 'snow' and the 'locals' here start bulk buying. It happened in December, locals expecting blizzards because Met Eireann forecast said 'snow'. It's been 8 years since we've seen measureable snow in my area, yet the locals go into a panic. I'll expect the same again this weekend.

beefburrito · 11-01-2018 4:03pm

Its like the time back in the early 00's when there was a huge amount of snow forecast.
The snow came alright,but it blew right over our heads in the cloud's.
The clouds were a muggy brown color and quite low,the winds were North Eastern in direction.
Looking upwards you could see the speed of the cloud's passing over,as soon as it hit Wales and Liverpool it dumped almost a foot of snow.
If I was to describe the colours of the cloud's it was like what you'd see in an old black and white movie, swirling overhead....
The ground was bone dry too, perfect for the shnoow to settle.

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 4:14pm

Where are the most snow starved areas of Ireland now???

pad199207 · 11-01-2018 4:27pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Where are the most snow starved areas of Ireland now???

Here

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 4:29pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Here

Cheers.

fraxinus1 · 11-01-2018 4:32pm

Was just down at the local creamery and there is talk of very heavy snow next week in Donrgal. One or two people stocking up with extra animal feed and coal.

snowstorm445 · 11-01-2018 4:36pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Here

Most of Leinster and east Munster I’d say. And according to someone’s post a while ago, East Clare I think? :pac:

Some of them haven’t seen any lying snow since 2010 (and even then bits of the south coast saw much less than the rest of us).

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 4:46pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Where are the most snow starved areas of Ireland now???

I would say most of the greater Dublin region: Southern half of Meath, Dublin away from high ground, eastern half of Kildare, Wicklow away from high ground, Wexford, Waterford. These places really only get decent snow from a proper Siberian easterly and those are rare as hens teeth.

Perhaps some other areas like Tipperary, coastal areas of Cork, Clare and Kerry away from high ground and parts of the midlands see very little snow.

The counties that probably see snow each and every winter would be Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, not all parts see lying snow on an annual basis but they certainly see more white gold action than the rest of Ireland.

Villain · 11-01-2018 4:49pm

Also if people want to see lying snow they just need to head to higher ground, I've seen it on at least 5 different occasions this winter, sometimes having to climb highest point in Leinster but snow is often there, you just have to go looking. (when appropriate and when dressed and prepared for conditions)

Soccarboy11 · 11-01-2018 5:01pm

Ah I have to say Cork City hasn't seen proper snow in a while. Had some big flakes fall for about half an hour two years ago onto wet ground but never stuck. Cork county has had some snow stick, but the city (at least my part) hasn't had proper snow since about 2010. A lot of the East coast is the same I would gather from the posts on here too

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 5:25pm

Tuesday looks tasty on the latest 12z gfs,snow coming towards the immediate coastline in the west.

snowstorm445 · 11-01-2018 5:25pm

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Ah I have to say Cork City hasn't seen proper snow in a while. Had some big flakes fall for about half an hour two years ago onto wet ground but never stuck. Cork county has had some snow stick, but the city (at least my part) hasn't had proper snow since about 2010. A lot of the East coast is the same I would gather from the posts on here too

Unfortunately it can be far too marginal in Cork city when it comes to snow. I remember hearing about the snow two years ago and my family, who at the time lived south of the city, had a good few inches that day (as did my grandmother who lives out in Tower) but it was very slushy in the city I think. Also recently on Stephen’s Day there was a load of snow in West Cork but cold rain in the city.

Plenty of precipitation around (unlike Dublin) but it’s often too marginal to be worthwhile.

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2018 5:32pm

Taken literally (don't do that!) the 12z GFS suggests it will start snowing next Monday evening and stop at some point on Friday! If only........

As a joking aside, the below chart showing 98% of the country by area getting snow might lead to a few annoyed posters on here!

JCX BXC · 11-01-2018 5:43pm

To be honest, I think some of this "snow starved" sh*te is very dramatic. Everyone thinks they got the least snow in their own house. I can tell you Dublin certainly gets alot more snow than here in West Clare!

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2018 5:44pm

Two very contrasting models this afternoon.

On closer inspection the 12z GFS is glorious for snow lovers. I have huge doubts about the GFS, especially when it comes to predicting snow, but it basically shows uppers between -6 to -8, thickness sub 524 (and well sub at some stages), and negative dew points, for all from Monday night to Friday night. If that happens there is going to be snow for many you have to think.

HOWEVER, the GFS is, sadly, out on its own here. The 12z GEM for example shows upper temps about 4 degrees warmer and shows snow for a time over mountainy man on Wednesday night. And that's it.

I am afraid I would expect the latter, not the former given the GFS' track record on these. If the ECM is similar to the GFS later though then I will get excited.

Shedbebreezy · 11-01-2018 5:45pm

Just for fun before someone says their useless:p, first signs of snow accumulating by T102
102-780UK.GIF?11-12

Almost 1ft across Donegal
210-780UK.GIF?11-12

snowstorm445 · 11-01-2018 5:45pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Taken literally (don't do that!) the 12z GFS suggests it will start snowing next Monday evening and stop at some point on Friday! If only........

As a joking aside, the below chart showing 98% of the country by area getting snow might lead to a few annoyed posters on here!

Looks like everywhere except south Meath, ie. Gonzo’s house. :pac: (Jokes)

Captain Snow · 11-01-2018 5:45pm

Has anyone seen todays 12zz. Ireland is going to get pasted.

:eek:

Monday to Friday.

Villain · 11-01-2018 5:46pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Has anyone seen todays 12zz. Ireland is going to get pasted.

:eek:

If only! GFS and Northwesterly usually means disappointment.

Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

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