FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

squarecircles · 21-01-2020 1:21pm

GFS 00Z STORM

squarecircles · 21-01-2020 5:23pm

Dangerous storm crossing the country next Monday on the GFS 12Z.
Consistently showing up in the runs past few days,still some time to go.

squarecircles · 21-01-2020 5:25pm

typhoony · 21-01-2020 6:07pm

ECM also shows something similar at that timeframe.

Meteorite58 · 21-01-2020 9:22pm

ECM along with GFS showing spells of windy wet weather next week, GFS showing the strongest at this stage.

Both models holding on to a few colder days with possibly wintry precipitation. ECM has been hinting on and off of frontal sleet and snow for next Monday later in the day, in fact the 12Z run gives an unusual large amount of rainfall next Sunday / Monday with what looks like a long trailing front and where it reaches the colder air falls as sleet and snow ( showing around 24 hrs of rainfall for many areas, turning wintry later). This would be a very complex set up needing a lot of moving parts to come together . Both main models showing Monday possibly very windy but in different ways.

Overall IMO the models for next week are showing spells of possible windy or very windy and wet weather, cold air mass and milder interludes, hints of stormy weather, very strong meandering Jet. High rainfall totals on the Western half of the country, highest furthest W.

JCX BXC · 21-01-2020 9:49pm

A bit of everything it seems!

For those interested in weather, it's nice to see things of interest coming up on the models, this blandness has really quietened the forum!

Santy2015 · 21-01-2020 10:01pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

A bit of everything it seems!

For those interested in weather, it's nice to see things of interest coming up on the models, this blandness has really quietened the forum!

But snowmageddon is happening next week according to a certain Facebook page

nacho libre · 22-01-2020 12:29pm

The Gfs, along with Icon, tends to overdo it with storm intensity. It looks like it will be quite windy , though.

The situation next week could lead to a lot of cold rain, or snow for some, but it could be the wrong side of marginal. However, a few things on our side are: the cold sea temperatures, which also start to get naturally colder at this time of year, and the record cold in the atmosphere over Greenland, if we do manage to tap into more north westerlies airflows in the next five weeks, our chances of getting snow will greatly increase. We could, if we are very lucky, even get a polar low in the right set up.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2020 12:59pm

Narrowing in on Monday night being a night that could bring heavy snow showers across the country. Very cold, unstable polar maritime air and strong winds = good times.

ECM1-144.GIF?22-12

Any setup like this won't have longevity though so you are looking at a night here or there of actual snow potential.

squarecircles · 22-01-2020 1:32pm

squarecircles · 22-01-2020 1:32pm

typhoony · 22-01-2020 4:20pm

Not sure this low is being handled correctly by the models, I suggest it might take a more southerly track into the UK

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2020 8:18pm

Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday.

Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above)

If they do there is a snow thread coming...:D

Snow Garden · 22-01-2020 8:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday.

Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above)

If they do there is a snow thread coming...:D

Please make it so Kermit!

Donegal Storm · 22-01-2020 10:09pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ok so we are up a notch now on the ECM for snow potential between Sunday and Tuesday.

Be interesting to see if the other models coalesce around this over the next 24 hours (it will also dispence with stormy potential mentioned above)

If they do there is a snow thread coming...:D

Looks like nothing more than slushy muck that melts between showers to me at the moment, westerlies rarely amount to anything enjoyable. Better than nothing though I guess

nacho libre · 23-01-2020 12:17am

The snow could settle nicely at night, but its unlikely to stick around during the day. I will be happy with that considering how the winter has gone so far. However if you are after a foot of snow and ice days you will not be happy!

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020 12:23pm

Please Mr. Scandi High. Move a bit north and west and get much stronger, Valentine's might be lovely yet

odyboody · 23-01-2020 1:24pm

Naggdefy wrote: »

Please Mr. Scandi High. Move a bit north and west and get much stronger, Valentine's might be lovely yet

Looks good, however don't think there is much cold air to our east to get dragged over us even if we get an easterly

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020 2:12pm

odyboody wrote: »

Looks good, however don't think there is much cold air to our east to get dragged over us even if we get an easterly

It's pie in the sky FI alright. Though I think the GFS FI shows some cold sinking into eastern Europe by that stage. But -10 uppers on the Polish/Russian border isn't too impressive. And an awful lot would have to go right to get to at least -6 uppers from the east here by mid February.

gfs-1-360.png?6

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020 2:20pm

Strangely enough Greenland is really where it's at this winter. Seriously impressive cold. Synoptics that would bring a flow from there (hard to sustain like an easterly for any period of time though) might be our best shot for February and early next week also.

I've never seen so many 'white' areas of uppers -32 to -40 over Greenland as there has been this January and predicted into FI. The cold is seriously bottled up.

gfsnh-1-246.png?6

Jin luk · 23-01-2020 2:32pm

No low lying snow we never get it off a northwesterly hopeful thinking from everyone in this and its not cold enough in the east to get excited about a strong easterly, plenty of sleet and thats all

sryanbruen · 23-01-2020 2:41pm

The coldest I've seen up there on Meteociel reanalysed charts is this from January 1984 (which was a notably cold month for being so unsettled and dominated by northwesterly winds) although the scale doesn't go nearly as far and I have not looked at too many of these.

There is a lack of cold air to be had in the continent this winter as has been said many times but it's also important to keep in mind that continental landmasses can cool down very quickly especially during January to March timeframe. That Scandi High (in the extended frames of the GFS :rolleyes: ) is not quite set up right anyway to give us a very cold easterly as the WAA to our west is displaced, it should be more southerly sourced to inflate the high and send cold air out on the eastern side. 2009 is a perfect example of this.

No sign at all from teleconnections of a pattern change through early February and in fact, there's some evidence of a strengthening of the tropospheric polar vortex again. Rinse and repeat.

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020 2:52pm

Jin luk wrote: »

No low lying snow we never get it off a northwesterly hopeful thinking from everyone in this and its not cold enough in the east to get excited about a strong easterly, plenty of sleet and thats all

Depends on who 'we' are:) North and northwest, north midlands can do well. I've done well ocassionally in south Laois due to altitude.

Jin luk · 23-01-2020 4:54pm

Naggdefy wrote: »

Depends on who 'we' are:) North and northwest, north midlands can do well. I've done well ocassionally in south Laois due to altitude.

South monaghan we get good snow with easterlys not so much with a west or north westerly

typhoony · 23-01-2020 6:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The coldest I've seen up there on Meteociel reanalysed charts is this from January 1984 (which was a notably cold month for being so unsettled and dominated by northwesterly winds) although the scale doesn't go nearly as far and I have not looked at too many of these.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/34189-january-1984/

Gonzo · 23-01-2020 6:18pm

north westerlies are usually rubbish for most of Leinster, however the north-westerlies did strike white gold in January 2018 for much of Meath, We ended up with 8cm of snow from it over a few hours with prolonged and heavy snow showers. Very rare it is for this to happen.

froog · 23-01-2020 7:34pm

so what's the current consensus? ventusky looking like sustained light snow sunday evening right into monday night.

Naggdefy · 23-01-2020 7:59pm

Monday 18 January 2005 brought a nice bit of snow to low levels on a northwesterly to KK/Laois.

Same the first Monday evening in February 2013. Just 2 off the top of my head. If the pressure is nice and low with strong winds the showers get across the country.

Naggdefy · 24-01-2020 1:41pm

Amazing uppers from the East, March 11 2013. Wonder will we see something similar this year? 6 weeks away still.

gfs-2013031112-1-12.png?12

Jin luk · 25-01-2020 9:37am

Naggdefy wrote: »

Monday 18 January 2005 brought a nice bit of snow to low levels on a northwesterly to KK/Laois.

Same the first Monday evening in February 2013. Just 2 off the top of my head. If the pressure is nice and low with strong winds the showers get across the country.

Have u a link to charts for 8th feb i think it was 2009 maybe 2008 my birthday and we got a good snowfall that night am curious to see that 1

Naggdefy · 25-01-2020 10:09am

Jin luk wrote: »

Have u a link to charts for 8th feb i think it was 2009 maybe 2008 my birthday and we got a good snowfall that night am curious to see that 1

Here they are.. 2009. 2008 very mild.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=8&month=2&year=2009&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

weisses · 25-01-2020 1:48pm

Isn't this thread for model discussion 120 hours onwards ? ...

Jin luk · 25-01-2020 1:50pm

Naggdefy wrote: »

Here they are.. 2009. 2008 very mild.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=8&month=2&year=2009&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

We got plastered that night with white stuff co monaghan.

Jin luk · 25-01-2020 1:54pm

weisses wrote: »

Isn't this thread for model discussion 120 hours onwards ? ...

Were hoping of a repeat on these dates ðŸ˜…

Gonzo · 27-01-2020 2:38pm

This poor +120 thread is seeing very little action this winter, we have a month and a few days left to go in winter and only 16 pages of posts. Just for fun I thought I'd post a nice little chart which probably has a 0.01% chance of working out.

This is from one of the lower resolution GFS runs for first week in February. It is out on it's own with no support anywhere else but if it happened we would be plunged into the freezer with -12 uppers just about making it into parts of Ireland from the north.

gets very chilly from the 5th of February with winds going directly into the north.

Bitterly cold especially across Ulster and Leinster with those -12 Uppers.

Still cold by the 8th of February with heights trying to get going over Greenland, staying rather bitter over Ireland.

Still chilly up to the end of the run with the jetsteam well to our south:

This is just for fun, as sadly the chances of this coming off are practically zero at this point. There are signs of brief northerlies on some of the other runs into the second week of February, hopefully we can build on this and expect more of a trend to colder conditions to start showing up more regularly over the next week to 10 days. There is still time to save winter.

arctictree · 27-01-2020 3:38pm

Some nice cold runs showing up on the GFS perturbations about 10 days out.

typhoony · 27-01-2020 11:45pm

Both GFS and ECM possibly picking up on a very cold trend at the end of the model timeframe 4th\5th of February. I certainly think we'll get one more decent cold shot before winter is over. the NH Jet profile after +120 is interesting with it initially weakening in mid-atlantic then follows a buckling of the jet up the western side of Greenland allowing it to regenerate itself into a North Easterly over the UK

Gonzo · 28-01-2020 3:05am

looking forward to seeing how the charts evolve tomorrow, several northerlies showing up on the gfs runs with the possibility of properly cold weather even if it's just for a few days. A fairly significant change on the endless mild runs of recent times.

BLIZZARD7 · 28-01-2020 9:17am

Very nice northerly shot on the 00z GFS this morning - Would be nice to get some proper winter weather even if only for a few days.

gfs-1-210.png.e7be12238a8a9202619861aebbf64cea.png

gfs-1-210.png.e7be12238a8a9202619861aebbf64cea.png

Donegal Storm · 28-01-2020 9:53am

Have we had a single northerly, even a weak one, since 2010?

They really do seem like a thing of the past

nacho libre · 28-01-2020 10:18am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Very nice northerly shot on the 00z GFS this morning - Would be nice to get some proper winter weather even if only for a few days.

-12 air. Now that would be a northerly of old! I think you're right the last proper one was 2010. I don't recall having any since then during winter time.

Mortelaro · 28-01-2020 10:26am

nacho libre wrote: »

-12 air. Now that would be a northerly of old! I think you're right the last proper one was 2010. I don't recall having any since then during winter time.

The beast from the east in 2018 was a returning northerly (like all cold we get it originates north).

nacho libre · 28-01-2020 10:45am

Mortelaro wrote: »

The beast from the east in 2018 was a returning northerly (like all cold we get it originates north).

Yes, although i mean one with a direct feed that delivers to the north and north west, as oppose to a returning northerly, which means we miss out, there has not been one of those in a long time for us.

Rebelbrowser · 28-01-2020 11:01am

Its a pretty short lived affair even on the gfs and its not really on the ecm at all so its still a long shot even at only 9 days away

Kamili · 28-01-2020 11:09am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Its a pretty short lived affair even on the gfs and its not really on the ecm at all so its still a long shot even at only 9 days away

Is GFS overcooking it again with its cold bias? I am left wondering if this will melt by the time we get to it especially if its not on the ECM at all...

KingdomRushed · 28-01-2020 12:08pm

Kamili wrote: »

Is GFS overcooking it again with its cold bias? I am left wondering if this will melt by the time we get to it especially if its not on the ECM at all...

ECM is not far off it, though it does not get the cold to Ireland in the same way, wouldn't take much for an upgrade. The 6Z GFS is similar to the 0Z, it is showing a cold outbreak from the North/North East around Feb 5th, and sustaining it for a good few days, not sure about snowfall, certainly some along the east coast, but very low day-time minima would follow as pressure rises a little, with very hard frosts.

Rebelbrowser · 28-01-2020 12:31pm

As you say, its still there on the gfs 6z so decent consistency now from the gfs. In fact the 6z gfs shows a generally very cold first half of February

nacho libre · 28-01-2020 2:03pm

Kamili wrote: »

Is GFS overcooking it again with its cold bias? I am left wondering if this will melt by the time we get to it especially if its not on the ECM at all...

A short lived affair is better than nothing at all, as you say its nine days away, but its good we have seen a couple of runs suggesting it- just need that to continue and the ECM to come on board

NMB · 28-01-2020 2:05pm

nacho libre wrote: »

A short lived affair is better than nothing at all, as you say its nine days away, but its good we have seen a couple of runs suggesting it- just need that to continue and the ECM to come on board

ECM and a nacho snow dance

Kermit.de.frog · 28-01-2020 2:29pm

ECM is not that far away from evolving in to something better - just need some tweaks

ECM1-192.GIF?28-12

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST