FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2019 12:29am

Struggling to post charts but above front arrives at the same time as -8 / -10 uppers descend over the country. Fun times if it came to pass!

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 12:45am

From what I can see ECM, GFS and GEM showing close similarities for a gradual change in the weather from around +120 hrs . The stubborn HP is shown to eventually get overtaken by colder Atlantic type weather with air sourced from Canada , Greenland and Polar Northerlies at times showing up mixed with warmer frontal activity which would be interesting seeing how they interact as they move into the cold air mass . ECM showing some strong jet also and at times from a NW /N direction so potentially living things up and helping to steer in some cold weather towards us.

This is just what I am seeing in the charts this evening , some good cross model agreement of a change to colder more typical Irish weather for the time of year with some wintry spells , possible snow with that amount of cold uppers and moisture available .

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 12:52am

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 12:59am

UKMO showing it getting colder from Monday also .

Meteorite58 · 10-01-2019 1:06am

ECM 850hPa Temp anomalies from +120 hrs and for comparison todays chart.

All in FI no doubt but will be watching over the next few runs to see if it holds.

Rebelbrowser · 10-01-2019 5:28pm

Just realised I've been posting in the wrong thread.

12z UKMO looking interesting for just 6 day's time...

1951704610_UN144-21(1).gif.89e72aabb5f55fa965d5094a3006aa9c.gif

1951704610_UN144-21(1).gif.89e72aabb5f55fa965d5094a3006aa9c.gif

gabeeg · 10-01-2019 9:21pm

gabeeg · 10-01-2019 9:28pm

Getting there. Uppers aren't quite what I'd hope for though.

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2019 1:05am

So the charts fairly consistent now that a frontal rainband and accompanying winds set to herald the change to a more active colder Atlantic from around Tues into Weds next. LP near Iceland by next Tues set to pull down colder NW'lys and LPs (not too deep at this stage ) are showing close to Ireland on the models around next weekend. The end of the ECM run out at +240hrs looking quite cold across Europe . Just looking at the total precipitation charts from the ECM and amounts not particularly high up to next weekend ( Atlantic coastal counties getting the most ). Both the GFS and ECM showing HP build off to the SW Ireland out at +240 , GFS goes on to show this take up position more or less off the Iberian peninsula well out into FI .

Meteorite58 · 11-01-2019 1:25am

Cold from the E and from the W out at +240 hrs from the ECM and GFS.

icesnowfrost · 11-01-2019 6:24am

Just putting this up for fun. GFS PARA for the 16th snowfall. Although I do think any snow we might get next week will be in the north and west.

highdef · 11-01-2019 12:04pm

FINALLY, the latest GFS operational is becoming to show signs of significant colder weather with a fairly high risk of low to moderate accumulations in the north and west, beginning in about 9 days with wintry showers becoming more widespread the following day, Monday and then a chance of heavy snow showers in the east on a strong north easterly wind on the Tuesday. Temperatures well below freezing at night and hovering either side of 0c during the daytime hours.

Pressure then builds slightly on Wed - Fri, leading to some extremely cold nights, especially with any snow cover with days perhaps remaining subzero, with some freezing fog about the place.

As we move into the weekend of the 26th/27th, heights are rising in Greenland and also in Scandinavia (briefly) and also just off the north east coast of the USA. A weather front crossing the country on the Saturday could bring widespread snow to many places.

All in all, this mornings run is looking like quite a significant upgrade and is the best that has been offered so far, IMO. We need more upgrades like this though as it's still nothing particularly dramatic looking but at least it's looking more like the ECMWF.

gabeeg · 11-01-2019 12:36pm

Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

F1410BFF-3473-4337-9F9F-C9762183C226.jpeg.579a6fea2319c68276cb45725288977d.jpeg

F1410BFF-3473-4337-9F9F-C9762183C226.jpeg.579a6fea2319c68276cb45725288977d.jpeg

RobertKK · 11-01-2019 12:54pm

Higher pressure than normal over the Arctic, lower than normal over western Europe in particular. It is saying a negative NAO, so northerly to easterly winds would dominate, if I am reading it correctly.

sryanbruen · 11-01-2019 1:03pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

Very large northern blocking with a deep area of low pressure to the southeast of us making the UK & Ireland a battleground and the mean wind direction would be easterly to northeasterly. The low would provide moisture for some of the white stuff.

YanSno · 11-01-2019 1:37pm

Proper Northern blocking, that would mean winds east to North Easterly for Ireland

gabeeg wrote: »

Can someone please help me interpret this chart from the GLOSEA?

hatrickpatrick · 11-01-2019 3:16pm

Some lovely charts showing up in the FV3 6z from 192 onwards - let's see if the 12z can keep this signal going!

patneve2 · 11-01-2019 3:17pm

I'm still very skeptical about our chances later in Jan and going into Feb but the AO ensemble forecast is definitely looking interesting ao.sprd2.gif

gabeeg · 11-01-2019 3:23pm

Why the scepticism?

patneve2 · 11-01-2019 3:39pm

Nothing scientific but after years of let downs I think its wise to be a bit skeptical until we have solid cross model agreement much closer to +0hrs. A shift here and there and we may just end up in no mans land as has happened countless times before. At the same time however I do agree with all that's been said above - the long range signals are all very positive and it looks like tropospheric vortex will be somewhat disturbed as we enter the last third of January.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 11-01-2019 3:46pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Nothing scientific but after years of let downs I think its wise to be a bit skeptical until we have solid cross model agreement much closer to +0hrs. A shift here and there and we may just end up in no mans land as has happened countless times before. At the same time however I do agree with all that's been said above - the long range signals are all very positive and it looks like tropospheric vortex will be somewhat disturbed as we enter the last third of January.

Model agreement at +0 hours isn’t very trusting in any model.

The netweather guys are all excited. Admittedly we are further west again.

Gonzo · 11-01-2019 3:51pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Why the scepticism?

the possibilities of really cold weather are not showing up reliably in the short term. All the very cold solutions are way out in FI several weeks away, so that would explain why not everyone is confident.

The Latest JMA models looks very promising, with increasing cold from January 18th. To begin with probably not that cold for Ireland, but certainly eastern UK could start to see very cold conditions slowly move westwards.

At the same time it shows a mid Atlantic ridge shifting northwards and settling over Greenland, allowing the freezer to fully make it's way across to Ireland by the 25th of January and lasting till about the 8th of February.

Below average heights over us and western Europe would indicate some precipitation, mostly in the form of snow and hail effecting many parts of the country, especially the east.

patneve2 · 11-01-2019 3:54pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Model agreement at +0 hours isn’t very trusting in any model.

The netweather guys are all excited. Admittedly we are further west again.

Maybe not +0hr but for me the excitement will only start when I see cross model agreement for snowy charts below the 150 mark. I can't remember how it went last year but if I recall correctly the only time that a cold spell has been modeled correctly and precisely from the depths of FI right down to impact was the November/December 2010 North Easterly. Anyways, interesting model watching ahead that's for sure.

YanSno · 11-01-2019 5:28pm

You need NAO also to go negative, at the moment mean line is positive to neutral for the next 10 days. Few outliers going strongly negative very early but most members are going for slightly positive to neutral. Trend is downwards anyway. For the next 10 days it will be on and off westerly / North westerly with cold to mild intervals.

patneve2 wrote: »

I'm still very skeptical about our chances later in Jan and going into Feb but the AO ensemble forecast is definitely looking interesting

Artane2002 · 11-01-2019 6:08pm

Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactly will get the showers

pad199207 · 11-01-2019 6:12pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactlywill get the showers

Northeasterly? Naas Road corridor so. I’ll wait for a few more runs before possibly taking bookings for snow loving lodgers if last Feb and Dec 2010 is anything to go by!

BLIZZARD7 · 11-01-2019 6:36pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Lovely GFS 12z bringing heavy snow showers and strong northeasterly winds to the east (windy everywhere). Too far out to take too seriously and especially trying to find where exactlywill get the showers

Indeed, it doesn't get much better than this for snow lovers in the east of the country -

gfs-0-264.png?12

Encouraging signs of something significant building for the last week of Jan... UKMO very good at day 6

sdanseo · 11-01-2019 8:40pm

As mentioned in the general chat thread, GFS para showing some unreal scenes in deep FI. Good output for nearer (+240hrs) as well.

264hrs
gfs-0-264.png?12

360hrs

YanSno · 11-01-2019 9:20pm

That's a messy looking output, sleet to snow then back to sleet

sdanseo wrote: »

As mentioned in the general chat thread, GFS para showing some unreal scenes in deep FI. Good output for nearer (+240hrs) as well.

264hrs

360hrs

sdanseo · 11-01-2019 9:53pm

YanSno wrote: »

That's a messy looking output, sleet to snow then back to sleet

Unlikely that the cold pool would be quite as fragmented as shown, especially on the later chart. If we hang on to -6/-7 uppers or better, should be snow throughout surely.

+360hrs as well so any refinement like that will be totally different nearer the time

YanSno · 11-01-2019 10:20pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Unlikely that the cold pool would be quite as fragmented as shown, especially on the later chart. If we hang on to -6/-7 uppers or better, should be snow throughout surely.

+360hrs as well so any refinement like that will be totally different nearer the time

The fragmented cold is where the warm core probably would be located and with onshore winds it would be mostly sleet for the east cost.

kod87 · 12-01-2019 12:38am

YanSno wrote: »

The fragmented cold is where the warm core probably would be located and with onshore winds it would be mostly sleet for the east cost.

Maybe, maybe not, but it's so far out in FI that going into any detail on those charts is meaningless.

The only use for charts that far out is to see if any trend is developing and even then it is extremely unlikely.

Meteorite58 · 12-01-2019 12:46am

The GFS 18Z continues the colder theme. In general what I am seeing in the charts is potentially turning wintry at times. Bit of a mix of everything I would imagine. Rain fronts and sleet and possible wet snow on higher elevations , possibly in the W /NW /N more so , windy at times, quieter interludes, hail and possible sporadic thunder at times behind the fronts, cold frosty nights in sheltered areas , white peaks on mountains at times, dazzling sunshine , windchill and a stretch in the evenings ! Looking colder the further out with an increasing chance of some snowfall towards around +240hrs perhaps but this could be more so on elevated ground ?

Will be interesting to see if we get a front like what is showing up on the ECM around next Thurs or Fri . A rain belt running into cold air, a scenario like this could produce a brief dump of snow ( but upper temperatures might need to be a bit colder ) along the leading edge followed by sleet and rain. Snow possibly settling on high ground for a short time as warmer air follows behind.

Danno · 12-01-2019 11:17am

Nice - widespread snow!

pauldry · 13-01-2019 12:39am

This time next weekend the snowlercoaster will be going up the arc .... hope theres not a dip but the over 200hr consensus is cold. I think midweek is the last time we see 10c in January.

Meteorite58 · 13-01-2019 12:35pm

ECM 0Z in general showing the temperatures cooler past +120hrs than previous runs. Even with the passage of fronts it shows upper temps in the main staying negative. Gets even more interesting from next weekend with what appears to be a slider low negatively tilted moving across Ireland around the early days of Mon- Weds week. Looks wintry. ECM showing possibility of snow at this early stage. No doubt changes can and will happen but i expect by this time next week the mild period in Dec /Jan will be well behind us as we adjust to proper winter weather.

squarecircles · 13-01-2019 6:18pm

atrocious 12z gfs

there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs

nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing
in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess

Snowbiee21 · 13-01-2019 6:20pm

squarecircles wrote: »

atrocious 12z gfs

there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs

nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing
in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess

But we worent expecting anything next week really , wasn’t it all about the week after ajd possibly the first week into January ?

Andrew00 · 13-01-2019 6:50pm

Outlook for January now is a small bit cold, but just your usual dirty Atlantic wind and rain

SleetAndSnow · 13-01-2019 6:51pm

Imagine being in Scotland

highdef · 13-01-2019 7:05pm

Precip charts for the GFS(P) are looking great for a potential decent snow event on Monday week.

Well into FI:

sdanseo · 13-01-2019 7:14pm

squarecircles wrote: »

atrocious 12z gfs

there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs

nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing
in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess

Temps will struggle to get above 8c before Friday looking at the 12Z
It's wet muck alright but very fine margins for Thursday. -8 uppers and <528dm thickness for the North and East but probably only sleet and snow over higher ground. A small fluctuation though as has been mentioned is all it will take either way - 100% rain or 100% snow.

FI is 96-120hrs if even that right now.

That said lots of potential for week commencing 21st.

Rebelbrowser · 13-01-2019 8:21pm

Thoughts on the 12z ECM folks? I'm out of my depth analysing in current set up....

Cork Boy 53 · 13-01-2019 8:27pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Imagine being in Scotland

Those coldest temperatures are mainly in the Scottish highlands, mountain ranges etc,. Cold temperatures and wintry weather there at this time of the year is nothing out of the ordinary for them.

Artane2002 · 13-01-2019 8:36pm

The GFS Parallel has a HUGE snow bias. When the UK had a freezing rain event last month it was showing widespread snow cover for Ireland and the UK (Ireland only had regular rain). And if there's showers that were 99% rain and 1% sleet it would show snow cover.

PukkaStukka · 13-01-2019 8:39pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Those coldest temperatures are mainly in the Scottish highlands, mountain ranges etc,. Cold temperatures and wintry weather there at this time of the year is nothing out of the ordinary for them.

I was in the Highlands for Hogmanay and it was very mild and dry. Only the very highest peaks had some snow but not that much either.

Cork Boy 53 · 13-01-2019 8:47pm

PukkaStukka wrote: »

I was in the Highlands for Hogmanay and it was very mild and dry. Only the very highest peaks had some snow but not that much either.

Yes, but just as in Ireland, Scotland has had unseasonably mild temperatures for most of this winter up to now. Not the usual Highlands winter weather.

Meteorite58 · 13-01-2019 8:47pm

ECM keeping the cold going out to the end of the run at +240hrs (would think the GFS is an outlier all right as it takes days for the ridge to get swept aside ). Difference in this run is that the slider low for Tues /Weds week on this run goes to dump a large amount of snow on the UK. Early days and changes to come but at present has a wintry look after next week end from around Tues.

ECM building a ridge up over Ireland but with cold uppers Mon week.

Will make all the difference where the cold is and how the low approaches and at what speed it is moving and if it stalls and and.......

Meteorite58 · 13-01-2019 8:55pm

The GEM is more like the ECM but a bit less cold.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST