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Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

  • 17-01-2013 5:37am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭


    Enough model guidance this morning to open a warning/chat thread for likely cold spell which could arrive with a bang as early as tomorrow.

    Initial guidance is showing the chance for snow to fall in some areas as early as 6am Friday, however there remains uncertainty over where the border between rain and snow will be and with timing.

    Overnight Thursday heavy rain will push from the west to affect most areas. During Friday morning cold air will begin to be pushed in to the northeast and this will continue through Friday slowly turning the rain to snow from the northeast. The extend southwest of the transition remains uncertain. Areas right on eastern coastal fringes will take a little longer for a full transition to snow due to sea influence.

    There is potential for significant accumulations of snow in places through Friday evening and overnight.

    Through Friday night the cold air will steadily track over much of the country, particularly more northern parts with periods of snow coming onto the east coast at times.

    Saturday will see Ireland in a bitter east flow with snow showers at times on the east coast. Extremely icy overnight Saturday with minima towards -6c.

    Late Sunday frontal features from the southwest will bring further risk of snow to many areas, but track and detail will be best kept for later.


    So initial risk tomorrow, with the NAE map for 6pm Friday used as rough guidance (but expect some change to snow-line between now and T0)

    13011818_1700.gif


«134567103

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Just a word on the temps forecast for late Sat night / early Sunday morning. I would not be surprised if temps of -10 were recorded in inland areas with snow cover. If I had to pick an area most at risk of snow cover and extreme low temps, County Monaghan would be a good bet.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    To kick things off, at least Evelyn is on duty this morning. :)

    Just caught the end of her sea area forecast on Radio 1 and she said ' tune in at 5 to 8...looks like some very wintry weather on the way'.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,355 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Crikey, had to check I wasnt still dreaming when I read here and MetE, sounds like things got very serious overnight


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    To kick things off, at least Evelyn is on duty this morning. :)

    Just caught the end of her sea area forecast on Radio 1 and she said ' tune in at 5 to 8...looks like some very wintry weather on the way'.
    Certainly when ME start talking about sub zero daytime maxes later next week, you start to sit up. But see how quickly they changed from yesterday morning. FI is 48-72 hours.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    and Im in the pink zone! Nice :D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    NAE for Friday at 6am

    13011806_1700.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Oh that's delicious !!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    NAE for Friday at 6am

    13011806_1700.gif

    But is that rain after it?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    But is that rain after it?

    It is, but, in theory the front should be stalled and/or move back west or fizzle out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 917 ✭✭✭The Nutty M




    :D:D

    I can't help but singing it this morning.Come on you bustard and SNOW.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The MetE website forecast a world away from last nights New Forecast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    The MetE website forecast a world away from last nights New Forecast.

    Evelyn in a good mood !

    Finally we see something we can track on the hi-res models, its been emotional up to now


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Radio forecast sounds nice!! :D and she at least stresses uncertainty unlike Gerry- also says high possibility of severe weather.

    Possible disruptive Snow tomorrow! :)

    Snow showers in the east on Saturday... :)




    Dan :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Radio forecast sounds nice!! :D and she at least stresses uncertainty unlike Gerry- also says high possibility of severe weather.

    Possible disruptive Snow tomorrow! :)

    Snow showers in the east on Saturday... :)




    Dan :D

    Never seem such a dramatic change of forecast. Met eireann all rain yesterday, now snow. Unreal


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS4X5_-OAE8


    0U25Fl.jpg

    Dstqjl.jpg

    hSaPPl.jpg

    Also The Main BBC forecast said Conditions will be atrocious in NI tomorrow!


  • Registered Users Posts: 514 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    better get my snow gear ehm let my wee fella get his snow gear at the ready

    Cheers folks

    If this comes off you have made a 38 year old ehmm 3 year old very happy:cool::D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The UK Met Office only has a rain warning for N.I. after downgrading it from an earlier snow warning. They will have to change that now today. Just like Met Eireann have changed their forecast.

    When the models change, it makes the official forecasters a soft target no matter where they are.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Now the initial snow pivot line Friday is still up for debate. It could be Wicklow or it could be Down. The snow line has conensus support to drift quickly south through Saturday morning, but for Friday, the exact pivot point is still uncertain. So Dubliners should not be counting their snowflakes for tomorrow yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    ramp.png

    Go on Evelyn ya good thing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Now the initial snow pivot line Friday is still up for debate. It could be Wicklow or it could be Down. The snow line has conensus support to drift quickly south through Saturday morning, but for Friday, the exact pivot point is still uncertain. So Dubliners should not be counting their snowflakes for tomorrow yet.

    Especially coastal areas! :(


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Especially coastal areas! :(
    Yep we'll be the last to see the rain turn to snow. But hey it's always been the case, we're well used to it by now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Now the initial snow pivot line Friday is still up for debate. It could be Wicklow or it could be Down. The snow line has conensus support to drift quickly south through Saturday morning, but for Friday, the exact pivot point is still uncertain. So Dubliners should not be counting their snowflakes for tomorrow yet.

    how about us in North Meath?


  • Registered Users Posts: 631 ✭✭✭inabina


    Villain wrote: »
    ramp.png

    Go on Evelyn ya good thing

    Beat's Gerry's incredibly mild ramping on 9pm news last night...he will not be comfortable with this!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Maybe Evelyn has the snowy weather pre-booked for herself :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    What a change in forecasts overnight from the Met. Looking good for the East and North East in the next few days and into the weekend. A quick scan through Dew Points and 850 temps temper my excitement somewhat imby especially and for the south in general. Still potential into next week as the cold deepens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    Ok. Seems like a good time to sign in on my phone for the first time this winter. Greetings old friends. Nice to see you again this year. :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Ok. Seems like a good time to sign in on my phone for the first time this winter. Greetings old friends. Nice to see you again this year. :)

    Yay ! Welcome back :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    What a change in forecasts overnight from the Met. Looking good for the East and North East in the next few days and into the weekend. A quick scan through Dew Points and 850 temps temper my excitement somewhat imby especially and for the south in general. Still potential into next week as the cold deepens.

    Regarding 850 temps, I'd use hi-res models like the NAE. For example, 0Z NAE has -9 uppers in Ulster at 48 hours where the GFS has -5. And for frontal snow you don't need uppers as cold as you do for showers anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭rainbowdash


    Can somebody explain what uppers means, does -9 uppers mean higher or lower temps than that on the streets of Ireland


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Can somebody explain what uppers means, does -9 uppers mean higher or lower temps than that on the streets of Ireland

    It's the upper air temperature, about 1.5km up. One of the important factors that make the difference between rain/snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Can somebody explain what uppers means, does -9 uppers mean higher or lower temps than that on the streets of Ireland

    -9 would be about 0 at street level normally but here will feel a helluva lot colder given source of the air etc


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I suspect the 6z NAE is making more of the small Irish Sea LP again on the 6z.

    Could increase precip/snow totals Friday.

    Although i can't see the pivot point yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    6am tomorrow NAE

    13011806_1706.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Eh some people on NW expecting the snow are saying " its so unfair" the cheek of em! Have they no idea what we have been going through past few days!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Is the more westward (than anticipated) snow going to prevent the UK turning into one big snowfield and will that have knock on effects for us? I know last night much was being made of the very cold winds likely to emanate from the UK over snowfields there. In particular, from an imby perspective, I'm thinking of Sunday and onwards as I can't see us down here seeing anything before then (though GFS precipitation and accumulated snow charts suggest otherwise surprisingly). Any thoughts folks on what effect if any this might have?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    6am tomorrow NAE

    13011806_1706.gif

    Looking very good for the East..I am still very wary of any front for later in the weekend especially with air coming from the Atlantic. It will be interesting to watch..


  • Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭aboyro


    it is unfair, coastal waterford loses out again!!!!!:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Looking very good for the East..I am still very wary of any front for later in the weekend especially with air coming from the Atlantic. It will be interesting to watch..

    On that point, Evelyn at 7.55 was talking about this as a classic cold east air meets mild moist west air scenario. But isn't it a bit different this time as, certainly on Monday, it looks like cold moist western air (-4/-5 uppers, etc)? This is what I am basing most of my optimism on for these here parts.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    30 hours :

    13011812_1706.gif

    Rain to snow line is a little further south on this run.

    Looks like some areas would see snow turning back to rain. So don't expect to be making snowmen just yet!


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    aboyro wrote: »
    it is unfair, coastal waterford loses out again!!!!!:(

    Patience. Every dog has its day. Yours should be Monday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    On that point, Evelyn at 7.55 was talking about this as a classic cold east air meets mild moist west air scenario. But isn't it a bit different this time as, certainly on Monday, it looks like cold moist western air (-4/-5 uppers, etc)? This is what I am basing most of my optimism on for these here parts.....

    Still a long way out so will probably subject to change! I suppose its an 80's set up which did deliver snow down south on a few occasions especially inland. Interesting times anyway but we're really not in the mix until Sunday on..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    6z NAE really pumping up that circulation. Some parts of NI look set for a plastering.

    Coastal Dublin remains a marginality concern as usual.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Out to 42 hours, looking good for N.I., border counties in the Republic and the Wicklow Mountains. Other areas might be rain/snow/rain without accumulations.

    13011900_1706.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Out to 42 hours, looking good for N.I., border counties in the Republic and the Wicklow Mountains. Other areas might be rain/snow/rain without accumulations.

    13011900_1706.gif

    Can see the Wicklow mountains getting an absolute pummelling!! I suspect visitor numbers to glendalough might take a slight hit. Would be amazing to get photos up there in this type of weather event


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    I live in quite a hilly part of North east Meath, should i expect much snow from this or will it rain, i'm hoping snow, cos the field next door cant hold much more rain before it comes in around the house.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    How far north the small circulation moves before retreating south is going to be a real now-cast situation.

    A really exciting 48hrs coming up, real knife edge stuff for many. And the bonus being somewhere looks like it will get plastered with 40mm of precip predicted to fall in some parts of the north.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,199 ✭✭✭hollster2


    come on you beautiful white stuff hurry up weve been waiting since 2010 well i have lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Belfast City Centre at rush hour tomorrow evening (and not a flag in sight)
    aobRD.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Very interesting runs this morning indeed. Precip totals for the NE would be about 16mm according to the charts... so if that was in the hill areas being snow that would be roughly 16cms.... thats..... a HALF A FOOT !

    OH wait... this aint the ramping thread! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Still doesnt look promising for most of us in the country , still a lot off if buts and maybes, I don't think we will ever see a repeat of 2010, people are getting the hopes up for nothing really unless everyone drives up north.
    Was there not more of a chance for us all Sunday night or is that gone?


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