Turning warm but mostly cloudy

Thanks Darkman2

I haven't read the post's you are talking about but for any to speak bad of MT is wrong he gives one of the best forcasts for this little island and he's not even on it. Some people just have nothing better to do :mad:

I dunno which posts you talk about either .... But if he makes wrong forecasts ... and that happens sometimes .... he gets criticized ...same as ME would be and has on these forums ... he is not some kind of weather god (he was wrong on my location yesterday )

The problem is (i think) that a lot of forecasting is to general and Ireland is not a country for general forecasting

I appreciate a lot what he does ... no discussion there

It is very wrong to say anything against MT I have not seen that post either, MT gives us a lot of very accurate forecasts here and its greatly appreciated.

The Met Office are the ones who I think got it very wrong, last Sunday for the week ahead the said that a high pressure would move up and would not break down giving good weather, even last night they said we were in for a good week, however I heard Evelyn on Newstalk this morning and she said we would have rain on and off and Monday would be the best day so who do we beleive ?????????

jambofc wrote: »

i suppose you're the type that goes around telling people that Santa doesn't exist as well.

now you've gone and burst my bubble.....

It is quite difficult in Ireland to predict when warm weather will happen and MT does a damn good job. Hes righter than any of the mets and us lot. He must be a fast typer too coz it takes me ages to write even this amount of sentences.

Mild and misty northwest means at least there wont be any mosquitos here like there was on my holidays. I hates those things

The GFS can often be around 2 degrees off. For Monday alone its showing 24 for parts, which could translate to up to 26 in reality. Not much point looking at the gfs or any model too closely beyond a few days as the output can change hugely from run to run the further you look.

owenc wrote: »

Hes on netweather you want me to go over and tell him that.

When you do just say October '87 although I'm sure he doesn't need any reminding.

I dont think anyone here is in a position to be criticical of MT,s forcasts,yes people have a right to question but not be criticising,i havnt seen these posts but if true then shame on you.At the end of the day it is a persons reading &opinion of computer models &can be wrong from time to time,i personaly enjoy&appriciate his daily forcasts

lord lucan wrote: »

Yep,i don't even look at Sky News or ME in the morning anymore,straight to Boards and check M.T.'s forecast.:)

Same here and have done so a]for a year or two
Well done and thanks from me M.T

Yep, thanks again (I am not used to having to thank people for weather forecasts :cool:) but there was no issue, there is no issue, and probably there will be an issue when it's 17 instead of 29 on Friday, but part of that I will blame on model error (I wish some of the models round here would make an error ... ... with me like :eek: ) ... so discussion on that closed.

I've really gained a lot of friends on this forum and much unanticipated knowledge of the geography of Ireland as well as the climate in detail ... it must be "meant to happen" because the other day I went to the library, found a really detailed travel guide that seemed to fit my desire to learn about the non-touristy places I might like to visit one day, and the library (through its human intermediary) said I could take the book off their hands, it was "too old" now. I was going to say, but this is Ireland, the book was published in 1985 AD not BC, so how could it be too old?

But I didn't because most of the seventeen year olds around this part of the world would be dead lucky to identify Ireland on a world map let alone know anything about it, unless of course their parents are Irish, which can happen (I mean, look at me for an example).

Very interesting read, and I have it for good now. I think if I do get the chance to visit, I would have too long a list of places to fit into the standard 2-3 weeks, which is good, perhaps I would just forget to come back to the airport. My one and only visit before was really conducted in a real fog of overall ignorance that rather matched the weather, sadly.

Well, Owen may turn out to be quite right about the big spread, but I wonder if he made that assessment after seeing a later run of the GFS than I was using at the time. Sometimes with these slowly progressing ridges that turn out not to progress, later model runs will go back and forth a few more times and give us all a few more grey hairs too. So I will reserve judgement about what's actually going to happen later in the week until the models get a nice big dose of new input from rapidly-changing situations that are developing over eastern North America. Anyway, I don't regard that sort of thing as personal criticism, it sort of goes with the territory of making weather forecasts and I think Darkman2 correctly identified that in his first post.

Not wishing to start any false leads, I do in fact look at computer models and try to compare all the major ones, but here's an odd factoid for you, I often make some good use of the GEM model, for whatever reason it doesn't seem to meet with much favour in the UK or Ireland, but at least taking the raw output and factoring in what I expect would happen if that raw output is to be accepted, then it seems helpful, especially on the shorter time scales that people actually care about reading forecasts. But then I'm more used to it, possibly.

DeepEasterly (and others) are also spot on about me not wanting to be part of anything too heavy-duty, I really tend to leave the old ego at the door to the forecast room here (virtually speaking) because, as I am sure is well known, there tends to be a lot of ego in meteorology (without ego, you have just metoroly) which to be frank I have always found a bit funny given how far behind all the other sciences we are. And I would prefer to be just a resource instead of a legend (especially after reading the book which I mentioned, as it seems full of nasty ends for Irish legendary figures.)

I suppose, returning to the question at hand, we are all aware of the tendency of the atmosphere to want to return to default settings and the question is, what is the bigger default here, the long-term dry pattern of this year before July started, or the three weeks of disturbed weather we have just seen? The optimist wants to say, warm and dry, while the pessimist figures, more rain and +1 to Saint Swithin (now there's a legendary figure no doubt).

I just updated another thread with this post, but will mention it here too (nasty flooding underway in the Midwest U.S., and you thought you had it bad) ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38395404/ns/weather/

No worries, I am getting dizzy from the model flip-flop past few runs, now (meaning 00z GFS) there has been a return to the warmer scenario. Where's the head bang icon?

Anyway, strap yourselves in, we are clearly in for a bumpy ride this week.

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Ah well, sure we all have our ups and downs..

I'd not take anything Owenc might say to heart though, I don't think he means any malicious intent. His style is a bit crude and forward but that's all it is, a style.

Well on another thread he said that he was never posting on boards again!:(

WHAT WILL WE DO WHEN THE WEATHER IS BORING NOW?

Well since tomorrow still looks good I'm happy.

Even one good day will do at this stage

trogdor wrote: »

I agree:) MT's forecasts and analyses are one of the best things about this forum IMO and we're extremely lucky to have him posting here! While i think discussions of forecasts and reports are a good thing, anyone who just shoots down someone's forecast without a second thought is not welcome here.

Ps: trog's not actually that far ahead of owen on the ole scale of elders

So your 13 then ?? lol

No but in all fairness Trog Over the years I have asked you the most ridiculous questions but you didnt sneer or be rude you answered them as simply as you could so I could understand. If someone bothers to put an effort into something you treat them with common courtesy & mind your manners. The rubbish you read from certain posters being plain rude to the gods on here is not on. If I came on here & told you your forecasts were crap & that your station must be on heat because im not getting rain/snow/wind that your reporting I would expect backlash..

Anyway - off down the airshow.. Perfect weather for a Jim Doyles special for the afternoon lol

Whether owen wants to leave matters not now, he is banned again after that.
Can we please try to keep to the topic of the thread:)

I'm not actually at home at the moment but the station recorded a high of 23.5C today which sounds fairly pleasant!

Evelyn Cusack said on the 9 weather. 24c for tomorrow and then fresher (18 or 19c)till friday. She didnt say what was happining on Friday but it looks like a warm front pushing up from Southwest and more mist. Certainly East and South are places to be for rest of July and North and West will see rain but not large amounts.

pauldry wrote: »

Evelyn Cusack said on the 9 weather. 24c for tomorrow and then fresher (18 or 19c)till friday. She didnt say what was happining on Friday but it looks like a warm front pushing up from Southwest and more mist. Certainly East and South are places to be for rest of July and North and West will see rain but not large amounts.

Well yee are more than welcome anytime - extra large back garden plenty of room for tents, will even throw in the odd BBQ & entertainment lol.

Beautiful day down the prom - very very warm breeze, just walked home there now - like being in the canaries at night time.

IM already sick of this muggy warm weather !

BRING BACK THE RAIN!