Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

bazlers · 03-11-2018 4:41pm

Found it 15/11/2010

Time to confirm what I've been hinting at here and in the daily forecast thread.

My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts.

Expect periods of very cold weather to develop late November and through much of December as blocking high pressure becomes well established over the Baltic regions. While the Atlantic will occasionally push back and bring milder, wet conditions, the frequency of east winds and cold combined with a storm track close to the south coast of Ireland and into the southern half of the U.K. should make for frequent snowfalls in many parts of Ireland and the U.K. Predicting temperatures to average 1.5 to 2.0 C below normal in December and some stretches possibly sub-freezing, with snowfall likely before Christmas making for a white Christmas for many.

The January outlook calls for this cold to deepen for part of the month before a brief reversal indicated by some of the research index values. Therefore the month may feature some major winter storms mid-month as this pattern reversal begins. Despite the milder end, the month is likely to continue to average below normal by about the same amount as December, 1-2 C and possibly more.

February was less conclusive from the research index values but unless the January reversal is highly energetic, could see the blocking redeveloping and leading to a colder than normal February as well.

Given the strength of cold in the outlook and the dependence of mean winter temperatures on snow cover near the lower end of the spectrum, one cannot rule out a sort of near-extreme or even extreme outcome, since mean monthly temperatures below 2.0 tend to promote continuous snow cover and therefore a fairly easy slide down to sub-freezing values from the same air masses as are present for 2-3 C.

In other words, I'm predicting a cold winter with lots of snow, that could become an epic winter. Stay tuned.

One other detail to note, the storm frequency from my research should be on a fairly well-modulated 3.5-day cycle with stronger events every seven days or so (this is not exact so it won't work out to the same day every week). The stronger events are likely to produce their share of slow-moving but deep "Channel" or French lows promoting a strong east wind and outbreaks of snow. One of the better scenarios I foresee for snowfall comes with the December full moon and "northern max" event of 21 December. This is bound to produce an intense storm over western Europe and I am giving something like 2-1 odds for this to be a cold weather storm event with at least some snow or sleet in the mix for Ireland, whereas if the pattern happens to be stuck on mild then, look for a very mild and windy sort of event followed by much colder weather.

In general, through the mid-winter period, the stormy episodes will fall at full and new moons, and approximately mid-way between them with a second set of high-energy peaks. This pattern will continue into late winter but with the secondary energy peaks decoupling from the primary (full/new) this gives a more frequent distribution of storms that, if coupled with a cold pattern in February, could lead to a steady parade of disturbances around the southern flanks of blocking high pressure to the north and northeast.

Anyone interested in a more detailed forecast could find one later today on Net-weather posted by my research associate and friend, Blast from the Past as he is known to the weather forum world. That will be UK-centric but after all, the winter patterns are bound to be quite similar, and the general theme appears to be cold winning out over mild again this winter.

Looks like this pattern could be setting up gradually later this month, and I would not be surprised if there is some snow even in late November.

&#55357;&#56832;❄️is it even possible to get a better forecast. although he believes this year could be one of the coldest of the last 30 to 50 years. &#55358;&#56606;&#55356;&#57341;

sryanbruen · 03-11-2018 6:16pm

UK Met Office:

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018:
By mid-November there is significant uncertainty, but there are weak signals that the UK will have transitioned to more settled conditions; with weather systems deflected away from the UK and most likely confined to parts of the northwest. These longer settled spells are likely to support an increased probability of overnight frost and fog across much of the UK which could be slow to clear given the time of year. Temperatures are more likely to be near to or above average at first, but mild conditions are probably going to become more short-lived with an increasing likelihood of below average temperatures through the end of November and into the start of December with precipitation probably turning wintry at times.

Artane2002 · 03-11-2018 6:26pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

UK Met Office:

When I saw that, I was considering taking a break from model watching because this model flip-flop is a bit much for me... especially the ECM. But once you start model watching it's hard to get out :P

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2018 12:29am

Well that 2010 forecast was not really a true long-range forecast at that date with respect to the epic cold and snow just over the horizon, as it was probably starting to show up as a strong probability on model runs. How that compared to any thoughts I published earlier is not made clear in the quotes and I don't really remember now. All I can say about the method being used is that it has shown some tendency to be better than random guesswork over about ten years of seasonal forecasting but a lot of work remains to be done before I get really that excited about it, and that work is more or less never-ending as the computer files are getting so unwieldy in recent years that I have my hands full just reorganizing the data bases. I've probably had a few clunkers along the way too, not one of those weather guru types who attempts to bask in some false atmosphere of infallibility (there's nobody out there who can rightfully claim that privilege, in my estimation.

Changing subject entirely, I have a list of the coldest third of winters in the 360 year period of record for the CET. This would include all winters that managed an average for DJF of 3.2 or lower. This list shows them all and separates the really cold (2.0 or lower) from the rather cold.

I arranged them for their first appearance here by lunar declination cycles, just to give anyone interested in that some actual data. But we can rearrange these in any sort of framework you like, or you can by block copying the numbers. Note, this table has either the cold winters (the year number refers to JF and the D is previous year), or blanks if they were too mild. So if you're looking for any particular winter, you'll need to count blanks from a nearby cold winter. Also, this table is arranged so that each winter only appears once.

(note: in the table below, "start" is a research-based astronomical date for the maximum declination values or year zero as some call it, in the 18.6 year cycle. Hence, the first winter that follows is the same year for cases that have a .0 ending such as 1913.0, otherwise it would be the next winter and that is placed at an appropriate distance into the table, the winters following a .8 date are the next group, followed by those following .6, .4 and finally .2 cases). Winter 1659 is judged to be non-cold from its Jan-Feb mean of 3.5. Years from 1653 to 1658 are shown as "no data" and every other winter is either cold and numerically identified or blanked out).

COLD WINTERS (CET) vs LUNAR DECLINATION CYCLE
_____________________________________________

start _____ 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

1652.6 ....... no --- data

__ 60 __ __ 63 __ 65 __ 67 __ __ 70 __

1671.2 .........72 __ 74 75 __ 77 78 79 80 81 __ __ 84 85 __ __ __ 89

1689.8 .....__ 91 92 __ 94 95 __ 97 98 __ __ 01 __ __ __ __ __ __ __

1708.4 .......09 10 __ __ __ __ __ 16 __ 18 __ __ __ __ 23 __ __ 26

1727.0 ....__ __ 29 __ 31 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 40 41 42 __ 44 45

1745.6 ......46 __ 48 __ __ 51 52 __ __ 55 __ 57 58 __ 60 __ __ 63 __

1764.2 ........65 66 67 68 __ __ 71 72 __ 74 __ 76 77 78 __ 80 __ __

1782.8 .....83 84 85 86 __ __ 89 __ __ 92 __ __ 95 __ 97 __ 99 00 __

1801.4 ....... 02 03 __ 05 __ __ 08 __ __ 11 __ 13 14 __ 16 __ 18 __

1820.0 ....20 __ __ 23 __ __ __ 27 __ __ 30 31 __ __ __ __ __ __ 38

1838.6 ......__ __ 41 42 __ __ 45 __ 47 __ __ __ __ __ __ 54 55 __ __

1857.2 ........__ __ 60 __ __ __ __ 65 __ __ __ __ 70 71 __ __ __ 75

1875.8 .....__ __ __ 79 80 81 __ __ __ __ 86 87 88 __ __ 91 __ 93 __

1894.4 .......95 __ __ __ __ 00 __ 02 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __

1913.0 ....__ __ __ __ 17 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 29 __ __

1931.6 ......__ __ 34 __ 36 __ __ __ 40 41 42 __ __ __ __ 47 __ __ __

1950.2 ........51 __ __ __ __ 56 __ __ __ __ __ __ 63 __ __ __ __ __

1968.8 .....69 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 79 __ __ 82 __ __ 85 86 __

1987.4 .......__ __ __ 91 __ __ __ __ 96 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __

2006.0 ....__ __ __ __ 10 11 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ (19?)

________________________________________________________

This is the distribution vs the 8.86 year lunar perigee cycle

Year of NP _01_02_03_04_05_06_07_08_09

1654.8 ____no data__ __ 60 __ __ 63
1663.6 .....__ 65 __ 67 __ __ 70 __ 72
1672.5 .....__ 74 75 __ 77 78 79 80 81
1681.4 ......__ __ 84 85 __ __ __ 89 __
1690.3 ......91 92 __ 94 95 __ 97 98 __
1699.1 ........__ 01 __ __ __ __ __ __
1708.0 ..__ 09 10 __ __ __ __ __ 16
1716.9 ...__ 18 __ __ __ __ 23 __ __
1725.8 ...26 __ __ 29 __ 31 __ __ __
1734.6 ....__ __ __ __ __ 40 41 42 __
1743.5 ....44 45 46 __ 48 __ __ 51 52
1752.4 .....__ __ 55 __ 57 58 __ 60 __
1761.3 .....__ 63 __ 65 66 67 68 __ __
1770.1 ......71 72 __ 74 __ 76 77 78
1779.0 ..__ 80 __ __ 83 84 85 86 __
1787.9 ...__ 89 __ __ 92 __ __ 95 __
1796.8 ... 97 __ 99 00 __ 02 03 __ 05
1805.6 ....__ __ 08 __ __ 11 __ 13 14
1814.5 ....__ 16 __ 18 __ 20 __ __ 23
1823.4 .....__ __ __ 27 __ __ 30 31 __
1832.3 .....__ __ __ __ __ 38 __ __ 41
1841.1 ......42 __ __ 45 __ 47 __ __
1850.0 ..__ __ __ __ 54 55 __ __ __
1858.9 ...__ 60 __ __ __ __ 65 __ __
1867.8 ...__ __ 70 71 __ __ __ 75 __
1876.6 ....__ __ 79 80 81 __ __ __ __
1885.5 ....86 87 88 __ __ 91 __ 93 __
1894.4 .....95 __ __ __ __ 00 __ 02 __
1903.3 .....__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1912.1 ......__ __ __ __ 17 __ __ __
1921.0 ..__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 29
1929.9 ...__ __ __ __ 34 __ 36 __ __
1938.8 ...__ 40 41 42 __ __ __ __ 47
1947.6 ....__ __ __ 51 __ __ __ __ 56
1956.5 ....__ __ __ __ __ __ 63 __ __
1965.4 ..... __ __ __ 69 __ __ __ __ __
1974.3 .....__ __ __ __ 79 __ __ 82 __
1983.1 ...... __ 85 86 __ __ __ __ 91
1992.0 ..__ __ __ __ 96 __ __ __ __
2000.9 ...__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
2009.8 ...10 11 __ __ __ __ __ __ __
2018.7 .... (19?)
____________________________________________

I will attempt some sort of analysis of these lunar profiles after staring at them for a while. It may just be entirely random.

(NP in the 8.86-year perigee cycle is the timing for perigee to coincide with northern max ... we just passed that point in the past month or two, and so the winter of 2019 will be just after the "NP" ... the perigee is well timed to coincide with the late January full moon in 2019. )

I would expect a peak of greater frequency of cold winters around years 4-5 when perigee is close to the southern maximum for declination, in other words, any southward pull for the Moon on the atmosphere should be greatest then. However, a secondary maximum might be expected at the northern max perigee on account of the pull then favouring blocking. Years in between with more of an equatorial perigee might be more likely to go zonal. But the significance of this may be slight.

If you have any cycles you want to investigate, just be cautious about preserving the order of winters as it's easy to lose or to add a few blanks in reordering the lines.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2018 7:46am

There's another natural cycle that I have mentioned in previous discussions, a nearly 20-year interval that seems important in modulation of the sunspot cycle. Jupiter takes 19.85 years to overtake Saturn, so there are alignments every two decades, and in between, they are at opposite sides of the solar system. Even back into the historical record reconstructed by Schove, it's fairly evident that this 20-year cycle is running in sync with active solar periods. When the Sun gets relatively quiet, the sunspot cycle slows down and the period is closer to 12 years than 10.

I've been trying to develop a working theory of why this might be a cause and effect relationship during active periods, why it switches off apparently during weak solar epochs (like the Maunder, Dalton and late 19th century, and again with the 2013 peak), and how to predict which phase the working relationship will be in. The best periodicity I could find over 17 centuries of Schove's reconstruction and modern data would be about 205 years, but it's certainly far from an exact repeating cycle.

Anyway, to show the relationship to these Jupiter-Saturn alignments, I have placed the cold winters in a 20-year framework. The alignment dates begin with years ending in 3 just as the period starts, then fall back to 2 through the Maunder and early 18th century, to 1 for the late 18th and all of the 19th centuries into the first half of the 20th, and more recently, years ending in zero. However, it's not quite a straight alignment because these two planets have eccentric orbits. The period is longer between some alignments than others, the variation being almost one year. So treat that as approximate, but the chart below shows the alignments at their start and end positions slanting down the table to the left slightly.

The J-S alignments are same side of Sun, the J=S alignments are opposite sides ...

Alignments ________J-S_______________________J=S____________

start __ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1659 .... __ 60 __ __ 63 __ 65 __ 67 __ __ 70 __ 72 __ 74 75 __ 77 78
1679 .... 79 80 81 __ __ 84 85 __ __ __ 89 __ 91 92 __ 94 95 __ 97 98
1699 .... __ __ 01 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 09 10 __ __ __ __ __ 16 __ 18
1719 .... __ __ __ __ 23 __ __ 26 __ __ 29 __ 31 __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1739 .... __ 40 41 42 __ 44 45 46 __ 48 __ __ 51 52 __ __ 55 __ 57 58
1759 .... __ 60 __ __ 63 __ 65 66 67 68 __ __ 71 72 __ 74 __ 76 77 78
1779 .... __ 80 __ __ 83 84 85 86 __ __ 89 __ __ 92 __ __ 95 __ 97 __
1799 .... 99 00 __ 02 03 __ 05 __ __ 08 __ __ 11 __ 13 14 __ 16 __ 18
1819 .... __ 20 __ __ 23 __ __ __ 27 __ __ 30 31 __ __ __ __ __ __ 38
1839 .... __ __ 41 42 __ __ 45 __ 47 __ __ __ __ __ __ 54 55 __ __ __
1859 .... __ 60 __ __ __ __ 65 __ __ __ __ 70 71 __ __ __ 75 __ __ __
1879 .... 79 80 81 __ __ __ __ 86 87 88 __ __ 91 __ 93 __ 95 __ __ __
1899 .... __ 00 __ 02 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 17 __
1919 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 29 __ __ __ __ 34 __ 36 __ __
1939 .... __ 40 41 42 __ __ __ __ 47 __ __ __ 51 __ __ __ __ 56 __ __
1959 .... __ __ __ __ 63 __ __ __ __ __ 69 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1979 .... 79 __ __ 82 __ __ 85 86 __ __ __ __ 91 __ __ __ __ 96 __ __
1999 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 10 11 __ __ __ __ __ __ __
2019 ... (19?)

J-S

J=S

This is the same chart with three years removed to align the Jupiter-Saturn periods:

Alignments ________J-S_______________________J=S____________

start __ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1659 .... __ 60 __ __ 63 __ 65 __ 67 __ __ 70 __ 72 __ 74 75 __ 77 78
1679 .... 79 80 81 __ __ 84 85 __ __ __ 89 __ 91 92 __ 94 95 __ 97 98
1699 .... __ __ 01 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 09 10 __ __ __ __ __ 16 __
1718 .... 18 __ __ __ __ 23 __ __ 26 __ __ 29 __ 31 __ __ __ __ __ __
1738 .... __ __ 40 41 42 __ 44 45 46 __ 48 __ __ 51 52 __ __ 55 __ 57
1758 .... 58 __ 60 __ __ 63 __ 65 66 67 68 __ __ 71 72 __ 74 __ 76 77
1778 .... 78 __ 80 __ __ 83 84 85 86 __ __ 89 __ __ 92 __ __ 95 __ 97
1798 .... __ 99 00 __ 02 03 __ 05 __ __ 08 __ __ 11 __ 13 14 __ 16 __
1818 .... 18 __ 20 __ __ 23 __ __ __ 27 __ __ 30 31 __ __ __ __ __ __
1838 .... 38 __ __ 41 42 __ __ 45 __ 47 __ __ __ __ __ __ 54 55 __
1857 .... __ __ __ 60 __ __ __ __ 65 __ __ __ __ 70 71 __ __ __ 75 __
1877 .... __ __ 79 80 81 __ __ __ __ 86 87 88 __ __ 91 __ 93 __ 95 __
1897 .... __ __ __ 00 __ 02 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1917 .... 17 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 29 __ __ __ __ 34 __ 36
1937 .... __ __ __ 40 41 42 __ __ __ __ 47 __ __ __ 51 __ __ __ __ 56
1957 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ 63 __ __ __ __ __ 69 __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1977 .... __ __ 79 __ __ 82 __ __ 85 86 __ __ __ __ 91 __ __ __ __ 96
1996 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 10 11 __ __ __ __ __
2016 .... __ __ (19?)

J-S

J=S

With the winters now aligned in columns of similar period to the 19.85 year effect, we can count up the numbers of cold winters in each of the twenty columns ... this is the count ...

_______ 07 03 09 06 06 09 05 05 07 05 07 04 04 09 08 03 06 05 06 08 _____

Adding the first and second groups of ten to get a count vs any alignment, we find

_______ 07 03 09 06 06 09 05 05 07 05
_______ 07 04 04 09 08 03 06 05 06 08

_______ 14 07 13 15 14 12 11 10 13 13

This seems to indicate a weak periodicity of five years with minima around second and seventh-eighth years which correspond to two years before and three years after alignments. Those are quite close to when solar activity peaks and then a secondary maximum is often observed and my working hypothesis is that Jupiter is "exciting" the solar wind by aligning with sectors of Saturn's interaction with the Sun that are radially curved on either side of the straight alignment. This is in somewhat good agreement with independent "solar weather" studies that do not always consider Jupiter and Saturn in their frameworks. Some researchers have been looking at that from different research perspectives.

In any case, this last graph of the series shows where the solar peaks have occurred relative to the 20-year period (using the second better aligned version) ... no peaks are shown for the Maunder although Schove gave some rather meaningless very weak "peaks" but the known peaks of activity since 1705 (the last weak peak of the Maunder) are reliable. Where more than one year is shown, that is a stronger peak with several active years.

This is the same chart with three years removed to align the Jupiter-Saturn periods:

Alignments ________J-S_______________________J=S____________

start __ 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

1659 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1679 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1699 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ 05 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1718 .... 18 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 27 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1738 .... 38 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 49 50 __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1758 .... __ __ 60 61 __ __ __ __ __ __ 68 69 70 __ __ __ __ __ __ 77
1778 .... 78 79 80 __ __ __ __ __ 86 87 88 89 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1798 .... __ __ __ 01 02 03 04 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 15 16 __
1818 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 29 30 __ __ __ __ __ __ 37
1838 .... 38 39 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1857 .... __ __ 59 60 61 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 70 71 __ __ __ __ __
1877 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ 83 84 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 93 94 __ __
1897 .... __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 05 06 07 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __
1917 .... 17 18 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 27 28 29 __ __ __ __ __ __ 36
1937 .... 37 38 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 47 48 49 __ __ __ __ __ __ 56
1957 .... 57 58 59 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 68 69 70 __ __ __ __ __ __
1977 .... __ __ 79 80 81 __ __ __ __ __ __ 88 89 90 __ __ __ __ __ __
1996 .... __ __ __ 99 00 01 __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ 12 13 14 __
2016 .... __ __ (19?)

J-S

J=S

count __ 07 05 05 05 04 02 03 01 02 03 05 08 07 03 01 00 02 03 02 04 ______

This effect is certainly more robust than the temperature signal. The peaks in solar activity occur 1-4 years before alignments and much weaker solar activity usually happens after the alignments. This effect can be demonstrated in active periods further back into the past based on Schove's research into timing (mostly from auroral sightings before the telescope era).

Well, this has been somewhat of an interruption in the discussion about this winter, but now you have a data base for cold winters to play around with.

bazlers · 04-11-2018 10:06am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well that 2010 forecast was not really a true long-range forecast......

Apologies. Didn't look at all your references to winter 2010 up to that point. I get excited this time of year until I am eating Xmas dinner looking out the window at daffodils in full bloom and wondering why oh why do I bother:)
Many many years have gone into this research it's some piece of work MT. I have looked at your thread on your theory on LRF on Netweather under R J Smith fascinating and the influence of the gravitational fields.

Unfortunately I think I am like Pooh the bear and am with small brain! so it will take me a long time to get my head around it. (If ever)from what you post this morning we are definitely with a better than average chance of this winter been colder that average winter.

Unfortunately for me the calendar split winter (as I said earlier I am with small brain :)so in my head I go more by season than years but I guess all the data is yearly. It's just the 9 months in between the year (Jan. Feb....Dec) to calculate confuses me so I have to extract the data to suit my needs

Anyhow this winter maybe epic maybe not, maybe just plain Jane, the fun is in the forecasting and hoping for "the one"

nacho libre · 04-11-2018 2:03pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

UK Met Office:

Considering how conservative their language is, the mere mention of precipitation turning wintry is an encouraging sign:)

"My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts."

At first I thought the 2010 winter forecast, that was posted on the previous page, was M.T Cranium 2018-2019 winter forecast, so I got a bit carried away reading the above lines

Artane2002 · 04-11-2018 2:18pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Considering how conservative their language is, the mere mention of precipitation turning wintry is an encouraging sign:)

"My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts."

At first I thought the 2010 winter forecast, that was posted on the previous page, was M.T Cranium 2018-2019 winter forecast, so I got a bit carried away reading the above lines

Carinthian on Netweather, who knows good forecasters in Austria I think (who have access to charts that we don't have access to) said this

The longer term charts I have been told over here do indicate a strong Polar front to move through much of Europe towards the last 10 days of this month with the establishment of a more northerly block. Should get an update tomorrow morning when I will push for a bit more information from our resort portal forecast team. Fingers cross !

C

giveitholly · 04-11-2018 2:39pm

Keep us updated artaneðŸ‘

bazlers · 04-11-2018 3:44pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Considering how conservative their language is, the mere mention of precipitation turning wintry is an encouraging sign:)

"My long-range seasonal outlook calls for colder than normal temperatures for most of the winter months, and higher than normal snowall amounts."

At first I thought the 2010 winter forecast, that was posted on the previous page, was M.T Cranium 2018-2019 winter forecast, so I got a bit carried away reading the above lines

Yeah I'm kinda sorry I reposted it now.
I don't think MTs forecast will be too far from that. The jet stream going south for us is the big one. I hope it hits Australia! Bwtfdik

hatrickpatrick · 04-11-2018 4:02pm

bazlers wrote: »

Yeah I'm kinda sorry I reposted it now.

Artane2002 · 05-11-2018 10:29pm

ECM seasonal is out. Imgur isn't working so I can't upload the images here.

Dec 2018 - Mild and wet I guess? We are just on the edge of the Atlantic trough with HP in S Europe

Jan 2019 - Anticyclonic - looks like it could get very cold and very frosty. If we can't get snow then I'd take that with open arms.

Feb 2019 - Looking good for cold and snow with northeasterlies but the usual caveats... too far out/unreliable

sryanbruen · 05-11-2018 10:58pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

ECM seasonal is out. Imgur isn't working so I can't upload the images here.

Dec 2018 - Mild and wet I guess? We are just on the edge of the Atlantic trough with HP in S Europe

Jan 2019 - Anticyclonic - looks like it could get very cold and very frosty. If we can't get snow then I'd take that with open arms.

Feb 2019 - Looking good for cold and snow but the usual caveats with northeasterlies... too far out/unreliable

Yes, just had a brief look at them myself and I share the same interpretations.

MidMan25 · 05-11-2018 11:10pm

December mild and wet

sounds awful

Loughc · 05-11-2018 11:52pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

December mild and wet sounds awful

Literally worst outcome.

The forecast has gone from a very positive to a very
Miserable outlook

sryanbruen · 05-11-2018 11:56pm

Loughc wrote: »

Literally worst outcome.

The forecast has gone from a very positive to a very
Miserable outlook

Despite this, Matt Hugo still says a mild, wet and zonal Winter is unlikely in his opinion. Famous last words. Even says December holds some interest.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1059529724458872833

Graces7 · 06-11-2018 9:19am

We had snow atop the mountains here for 2 days mid-October. Very very early and unusual.

Local lore is speaking of a bad winter and that is my deep instinct too. Totally unscientific but there we are!

The relationship with the weather out here(West May.offshore island) is very deep. It governs life mightily.

Graces7 · 06-11-2018 9:21am

MidMan25 wrote: »

December mild and wet sounds awful

sounds good to me;;;;been enough drama this year...west mayo. offshore island

icesnowfrost · 06-11-2018 9:25am

We had snow on top of slieve foye (co Louth) on Saturday the 27th of October. Only a light dusting about2-3 inches but was great to see it.

highdef · 06-11-2018 9:37am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

We had snow on top of slieve foye (co Louth) on Saturday the 27th of October. Only a light dusting about2-3 inches but was great to see it.

I don't think are many people who would define 5 to 7cm of snow a light dusting!

Graces7 · 06-11-2018 10:12am

highdef wrote: »

I don't think are many people who would define 5 to 7cm of snow a dusting!

lol...it was the same as here and only on the tops....

icesnowfrost · 06-11-2018 10:23am

highdef wrote: »

I don't think are many people who would define 5 to 7cm of snow a dusting!

Lol I mean for a mountain it’s a dusting. I’d love 7cm of snow on low ground any day ❄️❄️

Graces7 · 06-11-2018 10:33am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Lol I mean for a mountain it’s a dusting. I’d love 7cm of snow on low ground any day ❄️❄️

I understood totally!When I saw it here could not believe it

leahyl · 06-11-2018 4:21pm

Sryanbruen what are your thoughts on the chances of some cold weather (ie. snowy weather

) happening before Christmas?

IvySlayer · 06-11-2018 6:47pm

Might as well cancel Christmas :mad:

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2018 12:32am

Oscar seems to have revitalized the jet stream for the time being. Not too concerned about it, actually didn't want to see much cold air until early to mid December anyway for my scenario to remain valid. Both 2009 and 2010 had some quite mild weather in the first half of November and in 2009 that heavy rainfall event also.

With regard to the research that some were discussing earlier, I will try to get a thread going this winter to discuss my research, not just rebooting the net-weather thread but adding some Irish content and incorporating some pressure data analysis that I managed to do since posting all that material on net-weather.

The basic idea is to search out natural signals on many different time scales and then try to work out how they might interact so that a model called a temperature index can be created. My ideas have been out there in weather circles for 30-40 years, some of them are not exclusive to my research, and I have no way of knowing what others might have gleaned from that and put into operation in such places as, for example, the CFS model. I don't have the technology to create model-style maps but my index value theories would generate maps from anomalies. I think in any case if this method could be brought up to about 80% right side of normal it would operate better than any current system but I don't claim that it's much better than 60% at this point in time. (adjusting normal to something that will actually be a working median temperature in this slightly warmer epoch compared to all the research data). So look for that if you are interested in such discussions, it won't be really soon as I have some pressing work to do to get ready for winter here. Once the winter hits, I have a lot more time on my hands to do research and post on the internet.

icesnowfrost · 07-11-2018 12:38am

Has MT given the first winter 2018/2019 predictions yet. Just wondering &#55357;&#56846;❄️❄️

Sycamore Tree · 07-11-2018 1:08am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Has MT given the first winter 2018/2019 predictions yet. Just wondering &#55357;&#56846;❄️❄️

He did indeed. It was epic but a little long and complex.
Let me summarise;
It will get cold very very very cold soon. Planes, helicopters and geese will start falling from the sky completely frozen, week long snowstorms in every county until May, snowshields will shatter, the Jet stream will move to Mars, the living will envy the dead, Brexit will be in ruins as people walk from Ireland to Wales and Holland to England on frozen seas, Brennans Bread will go public and be bigger than Microsoft.

NickNickleby · 07-11-2018 1:16am

Oh God!

All I wanted was a bit of snow on Christmas Eve...

icesnowfrost · 07-11-2018 1:29am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

He did indeed. It was epic but a little long and complex.
Let me summarise;
It will get cold very very very cold soon. Planes, helicopters and geese will start falling from the sky completely frozen, week long snowstorms in every county until May, snowshields will shatter, the Jet stream will move to Mars, the living will envy the dead, Brexit will be in ruins as people walk from Ireland to Wales and Holland to England on frozen seas, Brennans Bread will go public and be bigger than Microsoft.

Ok on a serious note can someone send me a link to the post so I can read it lol

bazlers · 07-11-2018 7:13am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Ok on a serious note can someone send me a link to the post so I can read it lol

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3911916

This is the link on net weather where he goes by the name Roger J. Smith.

Page 18 on this thread the correspondence about his forecast starts.

An Ri rua · 07-11-2018 8:26am

NickNickleby wrote: »

Oh God!

All I wanted was a bit of snow on Christmas Eve...

Wrong novel Charles

Graces7 · 07-11-2018 8:43am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

He did indeed. It was epic but a little long and complex.
Let me summarise;
It will get cold very very very cold soon. Planes, helicopters and geese will start falling from the sky completely frozen, week long snowstorms in every county until May, snowshields will shatter, the Jet stream will move to Mars, the living will envy the dead, Brexit will be in ruins as people walk from Ireland to Wales and Holland to England on frozen seas, Brennans Bread will go public and be bigger than Microsoft.

Love it!

icesnowfrost · 07-11-2018 9:17am

Is the model discussion thread up yet.

sryanbruen · 07-11-2018 9:23am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Is the model discussion thread up yet.

No, we’re still in Autumn and the FI thread combines Summer/Autumn this time around. Any long range models are posted here when appropriate.

sryanbruen · 07-11-2018 9:26am

leahyl wrote: »

Sryanbruen what are your thoughts on the chances of some cold weather (ie. snowy weather ) happening before Christmas?

Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.

leahyl · 07-11-2018 11:53am

sryanbruen wrote: »

Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.

ok, thanks Sryanbruen, not exactly what I wanted to hear but appreciate the response :pac:

Loughc · 07-11-2018 12:43pm

leahyl wrote: »

ok, thanks Sryanbruen, not exactly what I wanted to hear but appreciate the response :pac:

One year Leahyl... one year it'll all come together for us

nacho libre · 11-11-2018 9:40pm

The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
Let the games begin...

leahyl · 11-11-2018 9:45pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
Let the games begin...

Yaaay, love when I see there has been a post from Nacho Libre cos it usually means something positive regarding blocking or something :-P

Artane2002 · 11-11-2018 10:08pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
Let the games begin...

What's even better is that the model update was an ensemble mean... so that means a good few runs were even better (to be balanced though a smaller number of runs were probably not as good).

nacho libre · 11-11-2018 10:11pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

What's even better is that the model update was an ensemble mean... so that means a good few runs were even better (to be balanced though a smaller number of runs were probably not as good).

Yes. Also this was encouraging to read:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/?do=findComment&comment=3919899

MidMan25 · 11-11-2018 10:13pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The Uk Met Office winter update suggests a lot of Northern blocking this winter:)
Let the games begin...

Link?

nacho libre · 11-11-2018 10:39pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

Link?

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90634-winter-201819/?do=findComment&comment=3919871

sryanbruen · 11-11-2018 11:13pm

Yes, the UKMO Glosea5 November update is absolutely mind blowing for this Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), lots of northerly and easterly winds with a strong Greenland High which gets only stronger for the Jan-Feb-Mar period at the same time!

Usual caveats apply here as ever with long range forecasting though, just be aware!

Reminds me of December 2010.

Stratosphere signals are looking decent for future cold with some minor disruptions. Remember, a SSW is not required nor does it guarantee cold for us. Late 2010 did not have a SSW! The troposphere and stratosphere were just very nice to us in 2010.

As for Eurasian snow cover, my analogue of years similar to 2018 in this case looks very similar to December 2010 again and the UKMO Glosea5 above (December 2010 is in the analogue also)

KingdomRushed · 12-11-2018 10:41am

Well, certainly a new pattern has emerged across the model suites in the last 48 hours which is suggesting a cool down toward month's end. To my eye what I am seeing is the establishment of high pressure over southern scandanavia, which will lead to cool and foggy conditions for Ireland. As yet, this 'scandy high' as modelled is not a snow machine, or anything of the sorts, the high pressure cell is not sufficiently north and west in the model outputs for that. However, it is suggesting a major cooldown for continental europe, which will help in colder offerings to these climes down the line if the blocked theme establishes and continues. Winter synoptic watching is just about kicking off for me. From this point on i will be watching the outputs. Saddle up.

leahyl · 12-11-2018 11:54am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Well, certainly a new pattern has emerged across the model suites in the last 48 hours which is suggesting a cool down toward month's end. To my eye what I am seeing is the establishment of high pressure over southern scandanavia, which will lead to cool and foggy conditions for Ireland. As yet, this 'scandy high' as modelled is not a snow machine, or anything of the sorts, the high pressure cell is not sufficiently north and west in the model outputs for that. However, it is suggesting a major cooldown for continental europe, which will help in colder offerings to these climes down the line if the blocked theme establishes and continues. Winter synoptic watching is just about kicking off for me. From this point on i will be watching the outputs. Saddle up.

Still plenty of time for it to kick off before Chirstmas though right?!

A whiteout for Christmas would be nice.....thanks Santa :pac:

RobertKK · 12-11-2018 12:11pm

Who knows, we could have a repeat of 8 years ago, but a lot of model watching to go, nothing certain.

arctictree · 12-11-2018 12:19pm

Good November snow really needs strong North/North Easterlies. It's not really until December that a continental easterly will deliver. At least the raging Atlantic seems to be gone on the charts!

pad199207 · 12-11-2018 12:22pm

Fantastic charts coming out. Still too early to be hunting for proper cold and also we have been here plenty of times before.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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