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Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Dull and foggy... And obviously calm. But mild, of that's any consolation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Visibility down to about 50m here and the fog seems to be getting thicker by the minute. Can barely make out the houses across the road.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Grand dry evening here no fog temp 11 degrees perfect for a walk later thankfully.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Ludicrously mild outdoors - colder inside!

    Looks like any thoughts of Scandi highs being an influence for cold calm conditions can be cancelled for now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Looks like any thoughts of Scandi highs being an influence for cold calm conditions can be cancelled for now.

    No? The Scandi High is still there for a few days, it just gets blasted away at the end. I expect that to come off but maybe a little less dramatically. We need to look at the bigger picture anyway, the polar vortex under major attack and the potential for a strat warming or even a SSW towards the last third of the month. This could set the scene for something more special as we enter January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    No? The Scandi High is still there for a few days, it just gets blasted away at the end. I expect that to come off but maybe a little less dramatically. We need to look at the bigger picture anyway, the polar vortex under major attack and the potential for a strat warming or even a SSW towards the last third of the month. This could set the scene for something more special as we enter January.

    January looks very interesting alright and as you said we could get something special and prolonged. But unfortunately there are no guarantees which is why I am always sceptical for my own good when it comes to viewing impressive FI charts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The 18Z GFS had a number of extremely unusual glitches and fragmented frames during tonight's rollout - it stalled for a long time around the 120h mark and then randomly threw in frames out of order (so for instance, 180h appeared some time after 120h, leaving the times in between still showing their 12Z charts) and as a result of this and its somewhat outlandish FI output, many over on Netweather have suggested that something screwed up the run, perhaps an unusual synoptic situation it was trying to get a handle on, but that either way the output is suspect / compromised and shouldn't be read into too closely unless tomorrow's runs follow suit. Just before anyone panics due to the horrendous +NAO being shown by the 18Z's FI charts, which essentially have Ireland and the UK under a cyclone with hurricane-esque central pressure by 216h :D:D:D

    Even now it's still fragmented and missing quite a few frames. General consensus is to discard and wait for the morning's runs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Only up to +126 on netweather now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The stress seems to have gotten to the folks on Netweather, this is what they had to say about this evening's model runs :D:D:D


    jGMML1O.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    The problem with those people on Netweather is that they are always looking too far ahead and believe what they see and convince others it's happening, when in fact it's just fantasy ,both on the models and in their head.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 822 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    The posters on here seem to be a more level headed and not as emotional as the folks on netweather and take a lot of models with a bag of salt never mind a pinch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    The posters on here seem to be a more level headed and not as emotional as the folks on netweather and take a lot of models with a bag of salt never mind a pinch.

    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.

    Netweather delusions aside, the Strat vortex is actually weaker than average and is forecast to take some hefty hits in the coming weeks -

    ####
    Polar vortex status
    ###

    The strat. vortex is currently weaker than ERA interim average
    and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to EPS-mean)
    0 of 21 members have stronger vortex than average at the
    last forecast step (2018-12-21 00:00:00)

    The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 26.8 m/s
    Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -0.7 m/s 1981
    Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 52.9 m/s 2015

    u10serie.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.

    As pointed out above this is not correct. With MJO possibly set to go to phase 8 and the wave 2 activity in the stratosphere, the vortex is under a lot of pressure, it may not lead to a sudden stratospheric warming, but the vortex is definitely not winding up. What we are seeing is a weakened vortex- a weakened or displaced vortex is often enough for the Atlantic to act as a spolier in our region. What we need is a split vortex to increase the odds of a block in a favourable position for us


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yeah, there’s an almost mass delusion that this winter is certain to be super cold. It’s almost tiresome and can’t see it myself. People saying the polar vortex is being bashed when it’s actuay winding up. I hope we see some nice seasonal cold but at the moment stormy and wet is the order of the day with late next week especially stormy potentially.

    next weeks potential easterly looks well and truly out of the question now with a dominant jetstream keeping the Atlantic charged up for next couple of weeks.

    I too feel this Winter could go either way, a 50/50 chance of either something properly cold happening in January/February or a continuation of Atlantic muck right into spring.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    I’ll go with the Atlantic on the law of averages and our prevailing weather patterns and climate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I’ll go with the Atlantic on the law of averages and our prevailing weather patterns and climate.

    I wouldn't. It's the 6h day of December folks!! It can snow in Ireland up to late March. We have a LONG way to go. It takes a brave man to write off winter on day 6 of a 90 day season!!

    D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    derekon wrote: »
    I wouldn't. It's the 6h day of December folks!! It can snow in Ireland up to late March. We have a LONG way to go. It takes a brave man to write off winter on day 6 of a 90 day season!!

    D

    I'm certainly not writing off winter, but there is the possibility that the Atlantic could stick around for some time to come, as it often does. We should see some snow at some stage this winter, but I don't think it will be anything like the spectacular snowfalls we saw last winter.

    I think it will take several attempts to break down the Atlantic, I just hope it happens in January or early February rather than in March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    I’ll go with the Atlantic on the law of averages and our prevailing weather patterns and climate.

    I know the Atlantic is a force to be reckoned with but surely it has to relent at some stage. And I think it will. Probably in January or February. Definitely not this month though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    esposito wrote: »
    I know the Atlantic is a force to be reckoned with but surely it has to relent at some stage. And I think it will. Probably in January or February. Definitely not this month though.

    The thing I would note is the Atlantic /jet stream was absent most of the year, people forget this it has really only started up the last 3 weeks or so,Evey Strom or depression that tracks up towards the northern regions/artic will have to have an effect on the stratosphere possibly delaying a warning event


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Can't believe it's been 3 years since this event. A wet period that was on par with the infamous November 2009 event.

    Met Éireann chart for December 5th 2015:

    Mxmfrl7.png


    Up to 80mm fell in some parts of the west and northwest on the 5th alone and which was coupled with persistent high winds.

    This chart, from Met Éireann, shows the 7 day rainfall totals up to December 6th 2015 and shows just how wet it was at this point of the year 3 years ago.

    TOcbAgg.png


    Data and images from Met Éireann.

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Damn warm and sticky out there.
    12C and 100pc humidity.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Well, given events like storm Emma are quite rare events, it's very unlikely we will see snowfall comparable to that event, so that's a safe prediction you make. I do think though we will get a notable cold spell sometime in January or Februray. In a modoki el nino, December is nearly always dominated by the Atlantic, blocking episodes are more favoured later on in the winter. Couple this with low solar activity and all the other factors at play our odds increase of a notable cold spell, but of course we could be unlucky and end up with a west based - NAO, which would likely means we end up with blocking in the wrong place to deliver a good cold spell


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I just closed the winter forecast contest to further entries. This is a summary of what 22 of your fellow boards weather forum members have predicted for the winter of 2018-19 ... almost all of the participants are long-time monthly contest forecasters and have made winter forecasts several years previously, so as far as some experience goes, this is about as good as you're going to find outside the locked doors of the weather agencies. (or maybe better, who knows?)

    The participants foresee a slightly colder winter than normal, with all of the negative departures likely to fall in January and February after a slightly milder than average December. The average for Jan-Feb is expected to be about 0.7 deg below normal, with some going as low as 3.5 degrees below. A minority of the forecasters believe the full winter season will stay mild, as most think December will be, generally 0.5 above normal.

    The consensus calls for a near normal range of temperatures from -9 to 15 degrees, and on the maximum there is only a small spread of opinion. As it has already reached 14.2 in early December, few think it will get much warmer but when they do, they mention February as the more likely month (some mentioned January). On the coldest temperature, there is a wide spread of opinion. Some believe we will not see colder readings than we already had in November (minimum -5.2 is the highest value in the contest). About one-third think it could get down below -12 C. These are the same forecasters calling for heavier snowfall (at Casement, the contest validation site). Here, the range is quite large too, from 2 cms to 41 cms. The consensus value is 12.0 cms for Casement. Recent analogues would suggest that means 25-40 cms in snowier parts of Leinster ... the contest question avoids any insight into snow potential from northerlies in Ulster and Connacht. Personally I think that looks to be no different from long-term averages. The snowfall season for the contest includes March and early April so this would not all necessarily have to fall in the winter months. As far as strong winds are concerned, the spread of forecasts is fairly tight and the consensus is a maximum gust of 76 knots, while the range is from 65 to 84 knots. Nobody entered an extreme value in the 90-100 kt range but I was being conservative, the scoring in any case is by rank order of forecasts so it wouldn't impact much on your score if you were ten knots low, as long as everybody else was too.

    Most of the forecasters believe December will be a little wetter than normal, while January and February are likely to be on the dry side of normal (which correlates well with their colder than average calls). The ranges are not extreme, with few individual forecasts outside the range of 80 to 120 per cent of normal for any month. The range for the season is from 89% to 124% of normal precipitation, and the consensus is very close to normal.

    (it should be mentioned that consensus varies considerably from the milder and colder forecasts in the group, this is by no means a shared consensus)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    On the subject of weather forum forecasts for the winter, I could mention too that in the U.S., weather contest expectations for the winter seem to be generally calling for a 2010 style winter there, it comes up as one of the more likely analogues so many snowfall predictions are above normal for parts of the northeast trending more to average in the Midwest (especially given that November produced above average snow there and the forecasts are for the rest of the winter).

    Basically, I think we are seeing two camps of forecast opinion, one being a highly blocked winter like 2009-10, the other being a long onslaught of zonality with weak blocking tendencies towards the end like 2006-07.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Just playing devil's advocate (and snow hopeful!) here, but does anyone else notice how the GFS always seems to blow any type of blocking away as soon as you switch over to the 192+ low res part of the run? Is this something to bear in mind or is it wishful thinking? I've noticed on a few runs both now and also during the heatwave in the summer, that you'd have high pressure reasonably stable up to 192, then you'd click over to the low res section and the whole forecast would go to hell.

    Confirmation bias or an actual thing?


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Some hyperventilating going on from people about the latest EC46 charts.
    They do indeed look very good for strong blocking at such a long range. Weeks 3,4,5 and 6. Perhaps they have picked up the Stratospheric Warming signal. However even an SSW can go wrong but encouraging signal end of December into January. Anyway here's hoping it's on to something.

    467655.png
    467656.png
    467657.png
    467658.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Wild out here but yesterday was so mild. I still have flowers blooming. Chilly now but not biting cold ...Out here it is the wind that rules.

    West mayo offshore island


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Well, given events like storm Emma are quite rare events, it's very unlikely we will see snowfall comparable to that event, so that's a safe prediction you make. I do think though we will get a notable cold spell sometime in January or Februray. In a modoki el nino, December is nearly always dominated by the Atlantic, blocking episodes are more favoured later on in the winter. Couple this with low solar activity and all the other factors at play our odds increase of a notable cold spell, but of course we could be unlucky and end up with a west based - NAO, which would likely means we end up with blocking in the wrong place to deliver a good cold spell

    I agree with this post. The signal on the EC46 for so far out is unusually strong.

    After looking at more models, the heights over Scandi look like they will be blown away but the GFS is being stupid with that super deep low.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Sudden vicious hailstorm !

    west mayo offshore island

    Heavy hard, wind driven showers.... the ocean to the north is a maelstrom.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Nice bright calm morning here this morning a little on the cool side but not bad at all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,882 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Nice bright calm morning here this morning a little on the cool side but not bad at all.

    Same up here, great to see the sun and blue sky again


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,036 ✭✭✭circadian


    A little flurry of sleet here in Dublin city centre. Bitter breeze about the place too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,227 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Ferocious shower of graupel in West Clare, great to see some exciting weather. Temperature 4.6c and dropping.


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Looking like it’s going to be storm watch next week given the latest GFS output. Severe weather likely. A very violent depression showing for next Thursday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,033 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    Looking like it’s going to be storm watch next week given the latest GFS output. Severe weather likely. A very violent depression showing for next Thursday.

    From what i've notice over the last few months following these threads is that anything over 24hrs seem to be FI when it comes to any storm so i'd expect or wouldn't be suprised to see that downgraded.

    Today, its bloody freezing now in Dublin, i'd expect some of that rain we are having to fall as snow in the Wicklow mountains.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    From what i've notice over the last few months following these threads is that anything over 24hrs seem to be FI when it comes to any storm so i'd expect or wouldn't be suprised to see that downgraded.

    Today, its bloody freezing now in Dublin, i'd expect some of that rain we are having to fall as snow in the Wicklow mountains.

    I'm with you. They nearly always spin N/W from where they are plotted a week out.. 7 days out I'll be more interested in a storm heading for France.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    John Hammond, a former UK Met Office forecaster, wrote the following on his blog:

    "There are signs of more severe cold as we head into the New Year

    You’ll have inferred, then, that I am not yet going to commit: Green or White Christmas? It’s simply too far off!

    However, there are several reasons within the set-up of the atmosphere this winter that suggest the cold air will be back sooner rather than later. El Nino is one; the cycle of spots on the sun is another even more distant influencer.

    Additionally, in the last few weeks I’ve spoken of signs that the usually strong stratospheric westerly winds that circle the Arctic (know as the Polar Vortex) may weaken markedly as December ends. This signal is becoming more ominous. It’s important because it introduces the possibility of a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ in which the Polar Vortex goes fully into reverse. Ultimately, it was this which led to the severely cold spell that struck the UK late last winter.

    From start to finish, this process takes several days, if not weeks, before such a reversal works its way down to ground level. But on balance, there is an increasing chance that cold air will return from the north or the east as we go later through the Christmas period, and more particularly into the New Year.

    Exciting times ahead – for the child and the weather enthusiast in all of us!"

    Also, Ian Ferguson, a current Uk Met office employee, has said their main model(glosea5 ?) suggests a SSW will occur at the end of the month


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    John Hammond, a former UK Met Office forecaster, wrote the following on his blog:

    "There are signs of more severe cold as we head into the New Year

    You’ll have inferred, then, that I am not yet going to commit: Green or White Christmas? It’s simply too far off!

    However, there are several reasons within the set-up of the atmosphere this winter that suggest the cold air will be back sooner rather than later. El Nino is one; the cycle of spots on the sun is another even more distant influencer.

    Additionally, in the last few weeks I’ve spoken of signs that the usually strong stratospheric westerly winds that circle the Arctic (know as the Polar Vortex) may weaken markedly as December ends. This signal is becoming more ominous. It’s important because it introduces the possibility of a ‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming’ in which the Polar Vortex goes fully into reverse. Ultimately, it was this which led to the severely cold spell that struck the UK late last winter.

    From start to finish, this process takes several days, if not weeks, before such a reversal works its way down to ground level. But on balance, there is an increasing chance that cold air will return from the north or the east as we go later through the Christmas period, and more particularly into the New Year.

    Exciting times ahead – for the child and the weather enthusiast in all of us!"

    Also, Ian Ferguson, a current Uk Met office employee, has said their main model(glosea5 ?) suggests a SSW will occur at the end of the month

    Ah Nacho Libre, ever the positive voice for us cold lovers!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    bitterly cold in cork city with winds starting to pick up now and very heavy, squally showers out of nowhere. Goes from blue sky to darkness. Worst kind of weather. Come on the snow! :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Ferocious winds out here now. Just nearly sucked out of the door letting a cat out.

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry
    A further spell of strong winds will occur later today and tonight. Westerly winds with mean winds of 55 to 65 km/h and gusts of 100km/h are possible, especially in coastal areas. High seas will bring a risk of coastal flooding.

    Issued: Friday 07 December 2018 13:35

    Updated: Friday 07 December 2018 13:35

    Valid from Friday 07 December 2018 16:00 to Saturday 08 December 2018 01:00

    marine even higher.. west mayo offshore


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    bitterly cold in cork city with winds starting to pick up now and very heavy, squally showers out of nowhere. Goes from blue sky to darkness. Worst kind of weather. Come on the snow! :p

    I think that was just daytime turning into night, given the time of around 17:00.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Dear Lord!

    That was thunder and a massive gale gust. Worse than anything last night here. Startled,,Gutters and piping are rattling and shaking, and so am I.. . ;) long night ahead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    highdef wrote: »
    I think that was just daytime turning into night, given the time of around 17:00.

    Haha but nah it was the clouds :p because it went back to bright


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Both the ECM and CFS are agreeing on a Greenland high for mid January. Obviously six weeks out from now is very far out in weather terms but it is an unusually strong signal and the seasonal models have been hinting at this so I would say this is more likely to happen than usual. (If I was picky I'd like the Euro trough on the CFS to be further south like the ECM but I'm not gonna complain!)

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1071043172229439489


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Mr. Empty heads spidy senses are twitching!
    Will the polar express be testing the waters soon!?


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    bazlers wrote: »
    Mr. Empty heads spidy senses are twitching!
    Will the polar express be testing the waters soon!?

    Check out MT's update this morning, it would appear his seasonal forecast of a stormy run up to Xmas followed by an outbreak of arctic air late December / early January might now be coming into play.......

    D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    derekon wrote: »
    Check out MT's update this morning, it would appear his seasonal forecast of a stormy run up to Xmas followed by an outbreak of arctic air late December / early January might now be coming into play.......

    D

    Well OK! I can believe that. High winds here and sheeting icy deluges.. and guess who has to go out for turf.... will have a look at the ocean perforce... should be magnificently wild... :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    The hunt for cold -- I found it at T384. Diving low followed by true arctic outbreak, on Christmas Eve too. This could fade in and out for a few more days, something like that seems plausible once the increasingly cold zonal runs out of energy and the jet drops away further. Just about the same timing as 2009-10 in the last Modoki type El Nino.

    (although that started up with some cold southeasterly stuff before a northerly developed)




    The thing about this winter is, parts of the arctic are actually colder than normal, in particular, the Canadian arctic islands and north/west Greenland. So if that anomaly can either expand or shift east, we might get the rare synoptics that many crave.


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