October 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for October 2018


FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Low max 31st


DOCARCH ______________ 10.8 _ 20.3 _ -2.8 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 9.3 Ballyhaise

M.T. Cranium ____________10.6 _ 21.5 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 8.8 Ballyhaise

mickger844posts _________10.5 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 110 _____ 9.2 Mullingar

sdanseo ________________10.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.6 _ 110 _ 101 _____ 8.1 Ballyhaise

200motels ______________ 10.1 _ 20.6 _ -3.1 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 12.0 Malin Head


NormaL ________________ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 (loc'n by climatology)


Tae laidir _______________ 10.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.6 _ 103 _ 093 _____ 8.4 Knock

JCX_BXC _______________ 10.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 Gurteen

pauldry ________________ 10.0 _ 20.1 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 092 ____ 11.0 Malin Head

Rikand _________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 7.0 Mt. Dillon

Dacogawa _______________ 9.9 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 102 _ 078 _____ 8.1 Mullingar

MrSkinner _______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -0.9 _ 099 _ 099 _____ 9.0 Knock

sunflower3 ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 10.0 Mullingar


Con Sensus ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 097 _ 099 _____ 8.9 Mullingar**


Kindred Spirit ____________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 093 _ 103 _____ 8.0 Mullingar

Bsal ____________________9.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 101 _ 095 _____ 7.0 Mullingar

waterways _______________9.8 _ 19.7 _ -5.7 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 14.1 Malin Head

john mac ________________9.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 9.5 Mt. Dillon

Rameire _________________9.7 _ 19.8 _ -3.5 _ 089 _ 089 _____ 7.9 Mace Head

Adam240610 _____________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Mullingar

Jpmarn _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.7 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 7.0 Knock

dasa29 __________________9.5 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 11.0 Mullingar

sryanbruen ______________ 9.4 _ 19.6 _ -3.9 _ 095 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Knock

Artane2002 ______________ 9.3 _ 18.7 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 10.2 Knock

Joe Public ________________9.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.9 _ 088 _ 093 _____ 5.8 Dunsany

BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) _____ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -5.0 _ 085 _ 103 _____ 2.3 Mount Dillion

_______________________________________________________________

** For location of low max on 31st,
... 7 predict Mullingar (Con gets 3 if correct),
... 5 predict Knock and 4 say Mountdillon (Con gets 2 if either correct)
... 3 predict Malin Head and also Ballyhaise, and 1 predict Dunsany, Gurteen. (Con gets 1 if any of these are right)

NormaL will score 3 for any location north of Claremorris to Dublin A inclusive, and 2 for any location central, 1 for any location south.

Con Sensus has been adjusted now that BLIZZARD7 has entered. The median value of the 24 forecasts is the mean of 12th and 13th ranked.

No problem, table is now complete.

Just for the record, Gurteen briefly took over the MAX yesterday (18.5) but as of 1400h several locations at 20 C. Our two warmest predictions are 21.5 (from me) and 20.6 from 200motels.

1500h reports include two at 21 C (Finner and Athenry).

After two weeks ...

IMT on 11.7, the second week average was 12.7, which is 1.9 above the normal for the period. Fairly certain that will be back into the high 10s by our next check.

MAX is now 21.1 (10th, Finner) while the previous MIN was --0.3 at Mullingar on 7th, tied on 14th at Markree (-0.3) as originally posted. That was a morning low and not at midnight on the way down to something colder, but eventually there were three readings of 0 deg this past morning also at Markree, Mountdillon and Mullingar, will have to see if the -0.3 was lowered at any of those locations. (now done, new MIN is --0.5 at Mountdillon, the other two stayed slightly above freezing). -- edit -- this post got changed three times, first I thought I agreed with the next post about -1.2, then realized that was in September not on 7th October. On checking I found another minor error about which stations were in the running for 15th. This is now all fixed up, I hope.

PRC is now a little above average at 105% with this past week rather wet, all eleven locations above normal and the average 160%. If the weather ran dry to end of the month however, this only guarantees about 50% as October is quite a wet month generally. Not saying it will but the trends are somewhat below normal at least in the next week or so.

SUN has improved to 85.4% with this past week at 103.3% (620/600). This should continue to improve given the outlook and the rather low average sunshine values in mid to late October.

Confusion at first for me reading the above, but on further checking, that -1.2 was for the month of September and not registered on the 7th, that was -0.3.

So back to plan A, the new MIN is -0.5 on 15th at Mountdillon.

Our highest sunshine forecast was 120% (Rikand) and our lowest precip forecast was 85% (three shared that, DOCARCH, 200motels and BLIZZARD7). The way things are unfolding, we could reach 135% sunshine and stay down around 70% precip (when I say we, I mean you, as my month looks like 200% sunshine and 10% precip at the rate we're going, one clear day after another for a week now and several more to come). I suspect the IMT will settle back to low 10s by end of month but should remain slightly above normal. MAX almost certainly settled and leads to some scoring boost from minimum progression. MIN of -2.5 might be as low as it goes but several more chances to lower that appear next week.

Will edit this post if some later model run suggests a change in outlook.

Gurteen was reporting -4 C overnight, at 0300h and 0400h. Some other locations have fallen to -2 C. The IMT is estimated to be 10.4 after the cold Saturday and will be around 10.2 after today, possibly 10.1 ... so it's almost sure to fall into the 9's now as Monday to Wednesday look quite chilly, perhaps 9.8 for a landing point.

Monday lows not quite a match for the MIN, Tuesday (today) I noted -4 C at Dublin so this could produce a rival for the --4.5 we currently have.

IMT after 29 days was 10.0 C even. Drop did not quite match the raw math (day averaged about 4 C, should have dropped 0.2) so might have been rounding issues at individual stations. Will see what it hits after today and report on that tomorrow.

Okay then, here's some final values from monthly and daily sections, to be confirmed from the MS tomorrow.

IMT finished on 9.6 C.

MAX 21.1, MIN --4.7

PRC 62% of normal

SUN estimated 120%

Low max 31st as reported Malin Head 7.7 C (scores three)

Next three lowest Knock (8.0), Ballyhaise (8.5), Mullingar (8.8) -- these score two

colder than Gurteen (9.8) also include Athenry, Casement, Dublin, Dunsany, Finner, Markree, Mountdillon, Oak Park, Phoenix Park

-- any of those will score one point. Johnstown Castle was equal at 9.8.

______________________________________________________________

I will post some provisional scores soon, as I think they will survive to be edited tomorrow if necessary, or the title can be edited if not.

Adam240610 was right on the money for the IMT.

Closest to the MAX was MTC (0.4 high).

Closest to the MIN was a tie between Kindred Spirit (0.2 high) and Joe Public (0.2 low).

Best we had for PRC was 85%, 23% higher than outcome, from DOCARCH, 200motels and BLIZZARD7.

SUN was (subject to review) forecast correctly by rikand (120%).

Closest to the bonus temperature (7.7) was Rameire at 7.9 C.

The correct location was guessed by 200motels, Pauldry and waterways, although they all figured on a mild pattern where Malin Head would be the logical choice for coldest max.

The closest forecast to what actually happened at the locations chosen was +0.2 at Mullingar (from Adam240610) although Con Sensus came closer (+0.1). Who needs a supercomputer for long-range forecasting when there is the boards forecast contest?

Next closest was at Ballyhaise. MTC was +0.3 and sdanseo was --0.4 compared to the actual of 8.5 ... mickger844posts matched the latter with an error of +0.4 at Mullingar. Tae laidir also matched it at Knock (+0.4). Johnmac joined this group with an error of +0.4 for Mountdillon.

Well done everybody, now it's on to the provisional scoring ...