Strong Winds & Heavy Rain Tues-Weds 26-27th Jan

Storm 10 · 23-01-2016 8:43pm #1

On RTE weather this evening Siobhain said that we are in for severe winds on Tuesday and will more than likely be putting out warnings for this, any updates here

Meteorite58 · 23-01-2016 9:51pm

Looks very wet also

JanuarySnowstor · 24-01-2016 10:58am

We'll pbly have an orange rainfall warning before the day is out.
A further 2-3 inches forecast Tuesday coinciding with v high tides.
With ground still saturated flooding looks likely.

For those not in the know it's the same system that dumped feet of snow across the US

JCX BXC · 24-01-2016 1:43pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

We'll pbly have an orange rainfall warning before the day is out.
A further 2-3 inches forecast Tuesday coinciding with v high tides.
With ground still saturated flooding looks likely.

For those not in the know it's the same system that dumped feet of snow across the US

Before today is out?
That's not Met Eireanns style.

Storm 10 · 24-01-2016 2:41pm

Mods should we rename this to the Jonas storm that's heading our way for Tuesday, you could add whatever warning is necessary as the storm approaches

JCX BXC · 24-01-2016 2:43pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Mods should we rename this to the Jonas storm that's heading our way for Tuesday, you could add whatever warning is necessary as the storm approaches

No, because we have a different naming standard to the US, and I have doubts as to whether this storm will be named in Ireland at all. If it is it won't be Jonas.

Personally I'd put the warning as a level two but let's see the opinions of more experienced posters.

JanuarySnowstor · 24-01-2016 2:55pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Before today is out?
That's not Met Eireanns style.

That's true usually the event is already happening.
24hours from tonight and the UK met have a warning out since yesterday!

Storm 10 · 24-01-2016 3:04pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

No, because we have a different naming standard to the US, and I have doubts as to whether this storm will be named in Ireland at all. If it is it won't be Jonas.

Personally I'd put the warning as a level two but let's see the opinions of more experienced posters.

Well on the forecast at 1pm she said Storm Jonas will hit Ireland on Tuesday and Wednesday

Cantona's Collars · 24-01-2016 5:14pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

That's true usually the event is already happening.
24hours from tonight and the UK met have a warning out since yesterday!

Sky News showed the Met warnings,up to 8 inches of rain forecast for parts of Britain.

JCX BXC · 24-01-2016 5:35pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Well on the forecast at 1pm she said Storm Jonas will hit Ireland on Tuesday and Wednesday

No she didn't, she said "A front associated with the Storm Jonas" that's currently affecting north-east USA'

howlinwolf · 24-01-2016 5:51pm

I think met.ie have already hinted at the associated front with its outlook forecast. Id imagine if things stay the same overnight then they will have warnings in place tomorrow sometime.

Much of Monday night will be cold and dry with frost in places and lowest temperatures of 0 to 3 degrees. Rain will develop in the west overnight and spread to many areas by dawn.

Tuesday will be a very wet day with spells of heavy rain in all areas at times. the rain will continue through Tuesday night. There will be further spells of heavy rain on Wednesday. Large amounts of rain will fall over the two days with flooding likely in many areas. Highest daytime temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees with fresh to strong southerly winds on Tuesday and lighter winds on Wednesday.

Meteorite58 · 24-01-2016 6:05pm

Strong winds more widespread in latest runs, a lot of area possibly being covered by an orange warning for wind.

Meteorite58 · 24-01-2016 6:50pm

An idea of rainfall accumulations up untill early Weds. The East getting off lightly. Mountainous regions taking much of the rain from Orographic lift.

Meteorite58 · 24-01-2016 8:47pm

Track of the Storm

km79 · 24-01-2016 10:26pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

I think met.ie have already hinted at the associated front with its outlook forecast. Id imagine if things stay the same overnight then they will have warnings in place tomorrow sometime.

Much of Monday night will be cold and dry with frost in places and lowest temperatures of 0 to 3 degrees. Rain will develop in the west overnight and spread to many areas by dawn.

Tuesday will be a very wet day with spells of heavy rain in all areas at times. the rain will continue through Tuesday night. There will be further spells of heavy rain on Wednesday. Large amounts of rain will fall over the two days with flooding likely in many areas. Highest daytime temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees with fresh to strong southerly winds on Tuesday and lighter winds on Wednesday.

Forecast updated now
Mention of flooding no longer there
It now says higher ground will see most of the heavier rainfall

ninebeanrows · 24-01-2016 10:58pm

Looking like an unsettled week.

I am keeping a closer eye on Jonas's evil twin, even though Jonas will bring some strong winds.

Models beginning to pay a bit more attention to it and deepening it further. If it develops a little quicker than expected, which is the current trend it could prove troublesome

gfs-0-60.png?18

sryanbruen · 24-01-2016 11:46pm

Yellow rainfall warning for Grange.

Rainfall potentially up to a maximum of 25mm from Monday night - Tuesday afternoon.

SEPT 23 1989 · 24-01-2016 11:55pm

200mm of rain mentioned for parts of the UK from this event

That can't be right surely?

sryanbruen · 24-01-2016 11:57pm

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

200mm of rain mentioned for parts of the UK from this event

That can't be right surely?

It can if it's mountainous regions such as the Scottish mountains which frequently get hit by such quantities of rainfall.

nagdefy · 25-01-2016 12:18am

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking like an unsettled week.

I am keeping a closer eye on Jonas's evil twin, even though Jonas will bring some strong winds.

The Jonas brothers

outsourced_ire · 25-01-2016 11:16am

Yellow warnings out now...

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Ireland
South to southwest winds of 60 to 65km/h, with gusts of 100 to 110km/h are expected tonight and for a time tomorrow. Winds could reach higher speeds at times in some exposed Atlantic coastal areas.

Issued:Monday 25 January 2016 10:00
Valid:Tuesday 26 January 2016 00:01 to Tuesday 26 January 2016 14:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for West Munster, Connacht and Donegal
Heavy rain expected overnight and Tuesday morning with falls of 30 to 40mm expected in West Munster, Connacht and Donegal, possibly larger values on high ground

Issued:Monday 25 January 2016 10:00
Valid:Tuesday 26 January 2016 00:01 to Tuesday 26 January 2016 12:00

Larbre34 · 25-01-2016 12:54pm

So an average winters night in Ireland ahead then, some moderate rain and a short lived gale on the Atlantic. These alerts threads are devalued by the cry wolf index.

howlinwolf · 25-01-2016 1:33pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

So an average winters night in Ireland ahead then, some moderate rain and a short lived gale on the Atlantic. These alerts threads are devalued by the cry wolf index.

I agree to some extent with the alert threads being way more common lately than in previous years but the title does say level 1, the lowest warning alert, as does met.ie warning of a yellow warning. I do think some people skip over this important point when reading the threads.

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 1:39pm

I think some people just cry conspiracy because they have nothing else to do. This has to be the least hyped up front this winter and we still have comments like the above.

Storm 10 · 25-01-2016 1:48pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

So an average winters night in Ireland ahead then, some moderate rain and a short lived gale on the Atlantic. These alerts threads are devalued by the cry wolf index.

Tell that to the unfortunate people who are still flooded and who are no doubt dreading more rain and wind

JanuarySnowstor · 25-01-2016 2:51pm

Looks like storm force 10 for quite a few parts tonight.
I would have thought that was orange category for wind?

Also there's a huge swathe of rain moving up across the country in the early hours.
I wonder are the met being a little complacent.

Also high tides coinciding

ronnie3585 · 25-01-2016 2:52pm

Why does everyone of these threads descend into this drivel time and time again. For better or for worse, there is a weather warning system in place - deal with it.

Back to the weather please.

ronnie3585 · 25-01-2016 2:52pm

Why does everyone of these threads descend into this drivel time and time again. For better or for worse, there is a weather warning system in place - deal with it.

Back to the weather please.

saltsun · 25-01-2016 3:19pm

ronnie3585 wrote: »

Why does everyone of these threads descend into this drivel time and time again. For better or for worse, there is a weather warning system in place - deal with it.

Back to the weather please.

Agree, I've no strong opinion about the colour system, and by all means comment, but there's a fair amount of tit for tat sniping happening around it. Constantly picking at that point doesn't add a thing to the thread, you know, about the weather.

RoisinD · 25-01-2016 4:55pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

So an average winters night in Ireland ahead then, some moderate rain and a short lived gale on the Atlantic. These alerts threads are devalued by the cry wolf index.

Very unfair statement. I have just walked (or tried) some fields and after a few showers this morning the place is flooded again. Don't know what it is like where you are but here in Clare, as I am sure in other parts of the country many places are still flooded from the last system. Any more rain on top, such as that predicted over the coming days has the potential to majorly setback any small improvement there has been.

There are families really struggling and I am not talking about those who built on flood planes but some who have lived where they are for generations who may never be able to return home so any warning of what you call 'moderate rain' is very welcome. During the last episode of rain many places in this area of North Clare flooded that have never flooded before.
We are also very used to gales be they short lived or not and are well prepared but for those who get them only occasionally I am sure the alerts are also useful.
In conclusion there is nothing 'cry wolf' about these alerts and certainly I and all in this area would prefer to have them than not. So to those posting and keeping us all informed a very big thank you and keep up the good work. It is appreciated by many.

howlinwolf · 25-01-2016 5:30pm

Met eireann have upgraded the marine warning from yellow to orange.Wonder if the national warning will get an upgrade. I would imagine the west and north west will fall into the orange warning.

Marine Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

1. Southerly gales this afternoon on the Irish Sea.

2. Gale to storm force southerly winds developing overnight on all coasts of Ireland and the Irish Sea.

Issued:
Monday 25 January 2016 12:00

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 5:36pm

Its very regular to have Orange marine warnings and Yellow land warnings.

howlinwolf · 25-01-2016 7:34pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Its very regular to have Orange marine warnings and Yellow land warnings.

I understand that, but with the mention of storm force winds I would assume the coastal counties of the west and north would be pulled into the orange warning.

JanuarySnowstor · 25-01-2016 7:43pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

I understand that, but with the mention of storm force winds I would assume the coastal counties of the west and north would be pulled into the orange warning.

I'm certain we had lesser winds during the winter when storms were named.
Storm force surely means orange.

I laugh at the word coastal.
The 5 largest cities in Ireland are coastal so coastal basically covers 80% of the population

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 7:44pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

I understand that, but with the mention of storm force winds I would assume the coastal counties of the west and north would be pulled into the orange warning.

Storm force far out at sea.

You have to find a happy medium though, if you live at say Loop Head you will already expect stronger winds, whereas if you live in places like Ennis, Galway, Castlebar, that's where the warnings are aimed at.

Just look at what happens on this fourm, if there's an orange warning for the West, people from Dublin come on here complaining that it was a nonevent.

Storm 10 · 25-01-2016 7:58pm

ME totally confuse me at times, they have an Orange warning for wind on their website and just now after the news it's Yellow

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 8:03pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

ME totally confuse me at times, they have an Orange warning for wind on their website and just now after the news it's Yellow

Ah here I've even explained this before.

The one on the Website is a MARINE warning. Its beside the LAND warning which is yellow.

Its really not that hard.

Storm 10 · 25-01-2016 8:08pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Ah here I've even explained this before.

The one on the Website is a MARINE warning. Its beside the LAND warning which is yellow.

Its really not that hard.

I know that but they should explain the warnings on their TV forecast, as far as the normal viewer is concerned it's Yellow as they don't look at the website like we do here

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 8:24pm

But as far as they should be concerned its yellow. The marine warning is ONLY valid for people out at Sea, who have their own specialized forecasts.

Start telling people about orange warnings and stuff they will ignore the proper orange warnings when they do come along and won't take action when it's needed.

_Whimsical_ · 25-01-2016 8:24pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

I know that but they should explain the warnings on their TV forecast, as far as the normal viewer is concerned it's Yellow as they don't look at the website like we do here

Yeah but the marine warning is only relevant for people going to sea. Stressing it on the main forecast would confuse too. I'm sure those going to sea don't rely on the TV forecast and look to the sea area forecast on radio instead.

Storm 10 · 25-01-2016 8:34pm

Hold on chaps they issued storm force winds for South , West and North coasts that storm will affect people living on Coasts as well not just at sea, not getting into an argument but that's just my take on it

pauldry · 25-01-2016 8:36pm

Surely just say

25 to 35mm and gales in a marquee at top of weather page

Yellow warnings are just a wet night

Could be some strong winds at times

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 8:38pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hold on chaps they issued storm force winds for South , West and North coasts that storm will affect people living on Coasts as well not just at sea, not getting into an argument but that's just my take on it

Take whatever you like out of it.

Met Eireann have published guildlines for warnings. If we are not going to get winds in the Orange level warning, they won't issue it. Ignore our points all you want but it doesn't change the facts.

jimmynokia · 25-01-2016 8:50pm

Much of the media are saying STORM JONAS is hitting us. Does this not change due to originating in the states or is it even a storm and rather just the usual alerts or will it be even named?

JCX BXC · 25-01-2016 8:55pm

jimmynokia wrote: »

Much of the media are saying STORM JONAS is hitting us. Does this not change due to originating in the states or is it even a storm and rather just the usual alerts or will it be even named?

It is the ex Storm Jonas, but that name isnt recognised here, so it's basically a Low Pressure system. It won't be a named storm here.

jimmynokia · 25-01-2016 8:57pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

It is the ex Storm Jonas, but that name isnt recognised here, so it's basically a Low Pressure system. It won't be a named storm here.

I see.some of the papers are making a big deal out of it

Irish Steve · 25-01-2016 9:16pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Take whatever you like out of it.

Met Eireann have published guidelines for warnings, that apply to met warnings across Europe, so that there is a standard for out of the ordinary weather reporting that do not require language interpretation.

If we are not going to get winds in the Orange level warning, they won't issue it. Ignore our points all you want but it doesn't change the facts.

FYP to emphasise that what's now happening is not just a local thing designed to upset weather nerds on the Internet, it's Europe wide, for good reasons.

We're on the edge of a very volatile weather generating system, and the result is that parts of Ireland get weather that "the system", and others would deem extreme on a significantly more regular basis that most, and the "extra" warning levels that we are now seeing are the result of adopting that system, but if it means that tourists from other EU countries are made aware of out of the ordinary conditions without having to go into the specific details, then I for one welcome that, in the same way that if I am in (say) Austria, and I see a weather warning on a TV forecast, I don't need to know German to be able to make a reasonable guess at the likely conditions that will result from the weather in the area.

As time goes on, maybe some of the trigger criteria will need to be adjusted, but on the whole, the warnings are appropriate, and provide an advance indication that something that may cause problems is imminent. I don't have a problem with that, as long as the trigger levels are appropriate.

weisses · 25-01-2016 11:52pm

Very windy already here in west Kerry ... Already feels stronger then during the orange and red warnings earlier this winter

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2016 12:09am

Picking up all right, going to be a wild night on the coast for a lot of counties, as was said on the weather forecast the high end of a yellow warning, clearing in the mid afternoon tomorrow, Southern coasts and up along the East coast will probbly have gales later Tues night/ Weds morning.

Latest predicted rainfall accumulations

Meteorite58 · 26-01-2016 12:39am

Met Eireann mentioning damaging gusts overnight and early tomorrow on coastal areas ...

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JCX BXC · 26-01-2016 12:44am

I hope ME havent underestimated this wind. Quite windy in West Clare ATM and the warning hasn't even started

Strong Winds & Heavy Rain Tues-Weds 26-27th Jan

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