So Michael D IS running again!

DeadHand · 26-10-2018 10:03pm

Tell me how wrote: »

We have local, national and European elections at least every 5 years.

Do you understand our political practices?

Yes, I do.

Tell me how many parties or individuals running in those contests mentioned, much less criticized, the enormous social welfare gravy train that will eventually run this nation off a cliff.

Rhineshark · 26-10-2018 10:04pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-michael-d-higgins-on-course-for-decisive-first-count-victory-as-peter-casey-surges-into-second-place-1.3677340?mode=amp

Paywall Andbut relevent bit in headline anyway

"Michael D Higgins on course for decisive first-count victory as Peter Casey surges into second place"

blanch152 · 26-10-2018 10:05pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1026/1006954-presidential-exit-poll/

Astonishing performance by Casey if true.

His vote is more than Labour ever got (possible exception of 1922). His vote is more than SF ever got, than the PDs, than PBP, than Democratic Left, than any other party other than FF or FG.

From 2% to 20% in less than two weeks.

I didn't believe he could get more than 10%, this is astonishing.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

blanch152 wrote:

From 2% to 20% in less than two weeks.

Probably very depressing to hear if you're an ordinary Traveller.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1026/1006954-presidential-exit-poll/

A RTÉ exit poll conducted by Red C suggests Michael D Higgins is on course to be re-elected President, with the polling figures suggesting he will receive 58.1% of the first preference votes.

...
The exit poll also suggests that businessman Peter Casey will get 20.7% of the first preference vote.

It suggests Sinn Féin's Liadh Ní Riada will get 7.4%, with 6.3% for Senator Joan Freeman.

The poll suggests businessman Seán Gallagher is on 5.5% and businessman Gavin Duffy on 2.0%.

Freeman 6.3%
Duffy 2%

71.1% indicating they voted Yes,

counting starts at 9am

Ronan|Raven · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

What is astonishing about it? Shout populist ****e and watch people cling onto it?

DeadHand · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Not true. But stick with it.

Next you can tell us how there was a queue of people at 1 station, all wearing Casey badges, you spoke to 2 old ladies at another who said they'd voted Labour all their life but have had enough of travellers coming in to our country and taking all the jobs so this time are voting for Casey. At the next one you voted at, you were able to overhear someone filling in their ballot paper were able to make out the numbers they were writing on by the sound of their pen and going by the order on the paper you are sure Casey got #1.

Quite true, actually.

I don’t know why you need to be so rude and make such an absurd personal attack. Terrible anger.

We’ll see shortly, I predict a strong second for Casey. He has tapped into a reservoir of strong public feeling by speaking plain truths.

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2018 10:10pm

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1026/1006954-presidential-exit-poll/

Astonishing performance by Casey if true.

His vote is more than Labour ever got (possible exception of 1922). His vote is more than SF ever got, than the PDs, than PBP, than Democratic Left, than any other party other than FF or FG.

From 2% to 20% in less than two weeks.

I didn't believe he could get more than 10%, this is astonishing.

I wouldn’t get that excited about it. Random things happen in presidential elections; bandwagons build behind unlikely candidates...

Adamcp898 · 26-10-2018 10:15pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I wouldn’t get that excited about it. Random things happen in presidential elections; bandwagons build behind unlikely candidates...

Just look at Seanie G last time out :pac:

DeadHand · 26-10-2018 10:20pm

Incredible result from Casey. He defied the dogma.

His comments and brave stand thereon made rather than hurt his campaign, vindicating them.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:23pm

Sad night if you're a Traveller.

touts · 26-10-2018 10:29pm

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

blanch152 · 26-10-2018 10:30pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Probably very depressing to hear if you're an ordinary Traveller.

hotmail.com wrote: »

Sad night if you're a Traveller.

Repeating something doesn't make it true.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:32pm

touts wrote:

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

Yeah strangely many on the right won't entertain homophobia or sexism, they aren't religious or against abortion but have a really big issue with non Irish people.

maynooth_rules · 26-10-2018 10:32pm

Think this vote shows that there is room in Irish politics for a decent centre right party. Caseys comments about us becoming a welfare state with so many people pushing for 'entitlements' seems to have struck a cord with the squeezed middle class. While Leo may have talked the talk about helping those who get up early in the morning, he hasn't lived up to it. There is a good chunk of the electorate that want the generous welfare payments for the long term unemployed to be tackled

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:32pm

blanch152 wrote:

Repeating something doesn't make it true.

Well it's probably fair to say that Travellers aren't going to be happy to hear Casey jumped 20 odd points.

I suspect they are feeling pretty bad tonight. Travellers have feelings too you know.

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 10:33pm

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

What is astonishing about it? Shout populist ****e and watch people cling onto it?

You can sense the disappointment actually. There was supposed to be a groundswell of feeling behind his 'sentiment's. I would say he tapped into a fairly permanent rump of never satisfied unhappiness of 20% He was a single issue candidate and the issue got 20% of a 40- 50% turnout.

Good luck to anyone or any party that wants to build on that base.

Shelga · 26-10-2018 10:33pm

touts wrote: »

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

But it’s nothing to do with right wing/left wing. It’s people absolutely fed up that someone is branded ‘right-wing’ for speaking undeniable truths, and having proper debate completely stifled in favour of echo-chambers.

An Ciarraioch · 26-10-2018 10:34pm

touts wrote: »

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

More a PDs Nua than anything comparable with the European right, I'd suggest - parties that have campaigned against immigration and/or Europe here have never gained much support.

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2018 10:34pm

touts wrote: »

Seismic result. Contrasting this with the poor poll results from the likes of Renua this shows that there is a substantial right wing support out there as long as it isn't hijacked by Catholic fundamentalists.

All hypothetical until it materialises at a general election.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:36pm

FrancieBrady wrote:

You can sense the disappointment actually. There was supposed to be a groundswell of feeling behind his 'sentiment's. I would say he tapped into a fairly permanent rump of never satisfied unhappiness of 20% He was a single issue candidate and the issue got 20% of a 40- 50% turnout.

FrancieBrady wrote:

Good luck to anyone or any party that wants to build on that base.

Given the PR system, 20% of the electorate is pretty significant and will tempt the desperate to make similar comments at future elections.

Anti-Muslim comments may also attract support from the same minority.

EdgeCase · 26-10-2018 10:40pm

The only thing I would say is that in an election where you had several well-seasoned high profile candidates backed by parties, and the whole party election machine in full swing, the debates and engagement would have been different.

I don't really think you could translate that 20% of a low turnout in an odd election into much more than what it is.

It would be stupid to think that Ireland's immune to populism though. We've destroyed the country on several occasions with it. Crazy low tax high spend FF governments in the past, hysterical right wing referenda that placed dogmatic, absolute bans on abortion etc etc.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:41pm

Shelga wrote:

But itâ€™s nothing to do with right wing/left wing. Itâ€™s people absolutely fed up that someone is branded â€˜right-wingâ€™ for speaking undeniable truths, and having proper debate completely stifled in favour of echo-chambers.

But it's people like you that aren't open to debate and open to changing your mind.

You've probably had the same beliefs for years.

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:46pm

The analysis and effect of this is going to be interesting.

AAA, PBP must be nervous tonight as the emergence of right wing candidates/party could strangely eat their lunch as opposed to affecting the bigger parties.

Would be bizarre if votes moved from outer left to the right but if the sense is that a right leaning candidate is anti-establishment, it might be the above who suffer.

nuac · 26-10-2018 10:46pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

That president was unhappy in the office and wanted a way out. He didn't need to resign.

But we would be in uncharted territory if Casey was an outspoken president!

Liadh vowed to be a confrontational president as well, with a promise to address the Dail 3 times a year!

A drunken cabinet minister called the President a thundering disgrace at a function for and attended by Army officers. Taoiseach refused to do anything about that public insult to their Commander in Chief.

Imho Ó'Dálaigh had no other option but to resign.

btw there are rumours that Donegan used a stronger adjective than "thundering"

Tell me how · 26-10-2018 10:48pm

Shelga wrote:

But itâ€™s nothing to do with right wing/left wing. Itâ€™s people absolutely fed up that someone is branded â€˜right-wingâ€™ for speaking undeniable truths, and having proper debate completely stifled in favour of echo-chambers.

Let me guess, the 'undeniable truths' are the views you hold, 'branding' is carried out by the left who also are the ones who listen to 'echo chambers'.

Can you see how this might be interpreted as pot calling kettle black?

Alan_P · 26-10-2018 10:49pm

I doubt Casey's visit proves anything very much really. I suspect he essentially concentrated the votes of those who hated MDH. As a random example, my mother-in-law was adamant from the start she hated MDH and wasn't voting for him :- she voted for Casey,so far as I can gather because he was the only other name she recognized.

Disastrous, humiliating result for SF :- the first major decision of McDonald's leadership, and she got it catastrophically wrong.

Silentcorner · 26-10-2018 10:49pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You can sense the disappointment actually. There was supposed to be a groundswell of feeling behind his 'sentiment's. I would say he tapped into a fairly permanent rump of never satisfied unhappiness of 20% He was a single issue candidate and the issue got 20% of a 40- 50% turnout.

Good luck to anyone or any party that wants to build on that base.

He achieved 20% or thereabouts in a National Election, by spending circa €70,000 despite all the efforts of the Irish Establishment, he achieved this not because he is an articulate slick salesman, he identified an issue that has been ignored for too long...

SF, a party of massive resources and has a national infrastructure and has ambitions of government in the Republic failed miserably in this election, everyone, including Irish Media, the other candidates, FG/FF/Lab, bar Casey has come out of this more damaged than they the state they were in at the beginning of this race!

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 10:50pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

Given the PR system, 20% of the electorate is pretty significant and will tempt the desperate to make similar comments at future elections.

Anti-Muslim comments may also attract support from the same minority.

20% of 40-50% at best, of the the electorate on a single issue. Seriously, it is premature to say there is any mandate or party foundation here.

Shelga · 26-10-2018 10:52pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Let me guess, the 'undeniable truths' are the views you hold, 'branding' is carried out by the left who also are the ones who listen to 'echo chambers'.

Can you see how this might be interpreted as pot calling kettle black?

I think calling someone racist repeatedly, when they clearly aren’t, is unacceptable. Of course I welcome the other candidates to say whatever they like. Shame all five of them lied about being only delighted to have travellers move in next door to them.

So Michael D IS running again!

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