So Michael D IS running again!

VinLieger · 26-10-2018 2:21pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Regardless of what share of the vote/position in the field LNR attains?

No of course not if she does miserably then its a failure but thats a risk they took and they likely weighed it as worthwhile. I would argue that a failure of her getting less than 5% doesn't hurt them to the same tune as say her getting 13%+ would have helped them

Rhineshark · 26-10-2018 2:32pm

VinLieger wrote: »

No of course not if she does miserably then its a failure but thats a risk they took and they likely weighed it as worthwhile. I would argue that a failure of her getting less than 5% doesn't hurt them to the same tune as say her getting 13%+ would have helped them

Tbh, I doubt it will matter at all by next Friday.

jm08 · 26-10-2018 2:55pm

blanch152 wrote: »

What I am saying is that internationally we are seeing the rise of nationalistic parties and nationalist sentiment again and it is happening on both sides of the traditional political spectrum. Trump is a sign of that, Brexit is a sign of that, Syriza is a sign of that, the Five-Star Movement and the League in Italy from opposite sides of the spectrum, the polarisation of Northern Irish politics with the demise of the SDLP and the UUP, with the rise of DUP and SF, Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, the Polish government, the list goes on. In Ireland we have the rise of Sinn Fein.

All of these parties and movements share a sense of their nation being under attack and being against some class of generic outsiders, whether that is immigrants, the EU, unfair trading partners or the British.

It is deeply unsettling.

But in Germany, the Green are doing even better than the AfD. What seems to have happened there is that people are deserting the middle ground. I think what has happened that some of the centre parties tried to ape the AfD and lost the middle ground.

oscarBravo · 26-10-2018 3:00pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm voting for Casey as a protest vote. He won't win. If it was a contest, I'd vote Miggledy but the only way my vote is heard is if it goes to Casey.

It's hard for me to express politely how stupid I think this sort of action is.

We saw it in the UK in the aftermath of Brexit when people voted to leave as a protest because they were sure that remain would win, only to bitterly regret their actions in the immediate aftermath.

Hell, we see it in microcosm every year when students apply for college courses they think they'll get the points for, instead of the courses they want to do.

A "protest vote" for a candidate who isn't the one you actually want to win is a grotesque act of stupidity and a dereliction of your civic duty. Yes, I know you have the right to vote in any way you see fit, but having the right to do something stupid doesn't make it not stupid.

Silentcorner · 26-10-2018 3:06pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Completely incorrect, neither FF nor FG had a candidate they felt could compete viably with MDH that was worth spending 200k+ on a campaign.

SF saw it as a way to gauge their support nationally and to also make the case for them to be considered a viable and core party worthy of government, this to them was worth the expense, they never expected to win.

The conspiracy theories about "the establishment" rigging the election etc are really just childish

Completely incorrect...neither FF nor FG have the resources to fund a national campaign, they didn't even attempt to identify a viable candidate, it is a money issue, simple as that!

We have locals and European elections in less than a year, we will have a GE in 2020 and not before.

B0jangles · 26-10-2018 3:07pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

It's hard for me to express politely how stupid I think this sort of action is.

We saw it in the UK in the aftermath of Brexit when people voted to leave as a protest because they were sure that remain would win, only to bitterly regret their actions in the immediate aftermath.

Hell, we see it in microcosm every year when students apply for college courses they think they'll get the points for, instead of the courses they want to do.

A "protest vote" for a candidate who isn't the one you actually want to win is a grotesque act of stupidity and a dereliction of your civic duty. Yes, I know you have the right to vote in any way you see fit, but having the right to do something stupid doesn't make it not stupid.

Yes, but you see by saying that voting like this is stupid, you've actually forced them to vote stupidly.

So in a way it's actually the fault of people who said voting Brexit/Trump etc was really really stupid, not the people who did the actual Brexit/Trump voting - those people had no choice...

Sam Russell · 26-10-2018 3:16pm

B0jangles wrote: »

Yes, but you see by saying that voting like this is stupid, you've actually forced them to vote stupidly.

So in a way it's actually the fault of people who said voting Brexit/Trump etc was really really stupid, not the people who did the actual Brexit/Trump voting - those people had no choice...

That turns logic on its head. No-one is forced to vote one way or the other. If it is stupid to vote a particular way, then it is stupid to vote that way. It is quite a leap to say - 'They forced me to vote stupidly because they said it was a stupid way to vote!'

It might be stupid not to vote, but that is a different line of reason.

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2018 3:18pm

Rhineshark wrote: »

Tbh, I doubt it will matter at all by next Friday.

If the whole thing is irrelevant, why should SF bother running a candidate at all?

blanch152 · 26-10-2018 3:30pm

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Sinn Fein is basically now a mainstream liberal social democratic party along the lines of the SNP. It is pro-EU and shares pretty much nothing with far right nationalist parties in Europe and elsewhere.

Trump, Brexit, DUP, Le Pen, Salvini etc. are all essentially imperialist and white ethno-nationalist in nature while Sinn Fein is explicitly anti-imperialist and pluralist in nature.

It also has none of the conservative theocratic overtones of the European far right and is solidly supportive of same sex marriage, transgender rights and abortion rights.

Comparisons of Sinn Fein to the European far right are fatuous.

I wasn't comparing Sinn Fein to the European far right. I didn't even mention Le Pen.

I was comparing Sinn Fein to Syriza, a deeply nationalistic party to which Sinn Fein have aligned themselves repeatedly. Then there is the Five Star Movement in Italy which favours public water, public transport, universal income and other left-wing policies.

This list of active nationalist parties in Europe includes Sinn Fein.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_nationalist_parties_in_Europe

Roanmore · 26-10-2018 3:42pm

I voted earlier, on the table where the people were crossing off the names and giving out the papers the woman had her phone and a copy of the New Testament, should that be allowed given the nature of the referendum?
I look in to some other class rooms and there were no bibles there.

pixelburp · 26-10-2018 3:53pm

IIRC the bible is used as a backup if you don't have any ID, so instead they'll ask you to swear on a bible. At least that's the possible urban myth I'd be told but never looked into. Yes, there's obviously lots of followup questions with that answer.

Hurrache · 26-10-2018 3:53pm

They're always at elections and referendums, bizarrely you can swear on them that you are who you say you are.

An Ciarraioch · 26-10-2018 4:19pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

VinLieger wrote: »

Completely incorrect, neither FF nor FG had a candidate they felt could compete viably with MDH that was worth spending 200k+ on a campaign.

SF saw it as a way to gauge their support nationally and to also make the case for them to be considered a viable and core party worthy of government, this to them was worth the expense, they never expected to win.

The conspiracy theories about "the establishment" rigging the election etc are really just childish

Completely incorrect...neither FF nor FG have the resources to fund a national campaign, they didn't even attempt to identify a viable candidate, it is a money issue, simple as that!

We have locals and European elections in less than a year, we will have a GE in 2020 and not before.

For argument's sake, who would either of them have run who could have had crossover appeal? For FF, you're perhaps looking at Donnelly and Lisa Chambers (at a stretch), Kenny could have run for FG, but still has hopes of replacing Donald Tusk next year, and Máiread McGuinness might have given Higgins a good contest, but would hardly have won.

Silentcorner · 26-10-2018 4:23pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

For argument's sake, who would either of them have run who could have had crossover appeal? For FF, you're perhaps looking at Donnelly and Lisa Chambers (at a stretch), Kenny could have run for FG, but still has hopes of replacing Donald Tusk next year, and Máiread McGuinness might have given Higgins a good contest, but would hardly have won.

FF were never going to run a candidate, they are in a worse financial state than FG, they flirted with Miriam O'Callaghan in the hope that Bertie wouldn't get notions, is my guess, for what it is worth.

FG got badly burnt in 2011, didn't they remortgage HQ to pay for Mitchells campaign and didn't get the required quota to claim back expenses.

We can get used to this kind of debacle every 7 years from now on.

Hotblack Desiato · 26-10-2018 5:34pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

That turns logic on its head

I think you missed the sarcasm.

Hurrache wrote: »

They're always at elections and referendums, bizarrely you can swear on them that you are who you say you are.

Or you can affirm without swearing on anything, but then everyone will know you're a big dirty atheist.

It's entirely ridiculous in this day and age that people may have to reveal their religion or lack thereof to a public official in order to be allowed vote, sit on a jury or give evidence in court.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 5:53pm

VinLieger wrote:

Anyone suggesting abolishing it completely shows a serious naivety for the essential role it holds within the constitution as a safety valve

The main problem with the constitution is that it gives all power to the executive (the government).

The president plays no role in reducing this power as they are forced to sign all bills once they are constitutional.

The power to reject a call to dissolve the Dail can be overcome by introducing fixed termed parliaments.

So no, I don't believe we need a presidency in Ireland.

Rhineshark · 26-10-2018 5:56pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If the whole thing is irrelevant, why should SF bother running a candidate at all?

I didn't actually say that. I said that (paraphrasing to clarify!) I suspected whether Liadh Ni Riada comes second or fourth won't matter/ be a millstone around SF's neck by next Friday. This race will be remembered for the winner and having three flaming Dragons Den eejits, also-rans aren't likely to be remembered.

Water John · 26-10-2018 6:02pm

Lisa would be a stretch, but moreso a wait, as she's only 32.

Kermit.de.frog · 26-10-2018 6:05pm

Let's say for argument sake Peter Casey was elected.

Does that pose any constitutional issue for the government given Varadkar openly criticised him? Anyone know?

Hurrache · 26-10-2018 6:06pm

I can't see how, there's no requirement in the Constitution that they should like or approve of each other.

Harry Palmr · 26-10-2018 6:06pm

It sounds like hardly anyone has bothered voting.

Water John · 26-10-2018 6:07pm

No.

Kermit.de.frog · 26-10-2018 6:08pm

I'm asking because in the past I believe a president/government got in trouble because a minister called the president a "thundering disgrace"

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 6:12pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I'm asking because in the past I believe a president/government got in trouble because a minister called the president a "thundering disgrace"

That president was unhappy in the office and wanted a way out. He didn't need to resign.

But we would be in uncharted territory if Casey was an outspoken president!

Liadh vowed to be a confrontational president as well, with a promise to address the Dail 3 times a year!

Water John · 26-10-2018 6:18pm

The issue was that the Minister involved was the Minister for Defence and the President is the Head of the Army. The President asked the Taoiseach to back him and this was not forthcoming. This put him in an untenable position.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 6:24pm

Water John wrote:

The issue was that the Minister involved was the Minister for Defence and the President is the Head of the Army. The President asked the Taoiseach to back him and this was not forthcoming. This put him in an untenable position.

It just further shows how weak our presidency is.

Danzy · 26-10-2018 6:43pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm asking because in the past I believe a president/government got in trouble because a minister called the president a "thundering disgrace"

The Minister was a chronic drunk with a deep disregard for the law and due process. He knew he ducked up but the then Taoiseach refused his resignation.

A man who was also iffy on law, his son was later done for corruption, Apple falls near the free.

Water John · 26-10-2018 6:49pm

Most of the power and work of the Presidency is, soft power. The post carries some key functions that are called upon on occasion.
That doesn't negate the power. O'Dalaigh validated the office by resigning.

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 6:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Let's say for argument sake Peter Casey was elected.

Does that pose any constitutional issue for the government given Varadkar openly criticised him? Anyone know?

Leo should be used to putting foot in mouth and dealing with the consequences of same.

It will be awkward but unless he said something similar while he is in office no constitutional crisis.

The whole thing about the presidency is that the government has the power to make it relevant or not, if they embrace the incumbent.

Then can just ignore it as easily and keep it low key.

richiepurgas · 26-10-2018 7:12pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Leo should be used to putting foot in mouth and dealing with the consequences of same.

It will be awkward but unless he said something similar while he is in office no constitutional crisis.

The whole thing about the presidency is that the government has the power to make it relevant or not, if they embrace the incumbent.

Then can just ignore it as easily and keep it low key.

No issue, there have been a few occasions where the president and the taoiseach were on opposite sides politically but they just got on with it.

An Ciarraioch · 26-10-2018 7:13pm

Areas with best turnout so far (according to RTE), include Bishopstown, Glanmire, Blarney, Killarney, Ballinasloe, Roscommon, Greystones, Drogheda and the Laois Stradbally. Best Dublin performers are Dublin Bay North, Blackrock and Terenure. Now 40% in Dublin Bay South, 26% in Cullmullen (Meath).

tayto lover · 26-10-2018 7:46pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm asking because in the past I believe a president/government got in trouble because a minister called the president a "thundering disgrace"

Paddy Donegan from Monasterbouce, Drogheda.
He also fired a few shots to put Travellers who were camping on his land on the run. He was a FIne Gael TD.

An Ciarraioch · 26-10-2018 9:16pm

Appears overall turnout will be below 50%.

tayto lover · 26-10-2018 9:19pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Appears overall turnout will be below 50%.

Would you wonder with the selection they had?

Hotblack Desiato · 26-10-2018 9:30pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm asking because in the past I believe a president/government got in trouble because a minister called the president a "thundering disgrace"

Allegedly the word used was a lot stronger than "thundering" but that's what got reported!

FrancieBrady · 26-10-2018 9:36pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Allegedly the word used was a lot stronger than "thundering" but that's what got reported!

Ah don't be saying that! I love that phrase, use it all the time.

This is like telling me Armstrong didn't say 'One small step for mankind...etc but 'youse better be here when I get back from this fecking walk'.

richiepurgas · 26-10-2018 9:43pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Allegedly the word used was a lot stronger than "thundering" but that's what got reported!

There was only one reporter in the room when the remarks were made and he has consistently said, even as late as about 3 years ago, that the words reported were entirely accurate.

Donegan was a loose cannon, later tried for shooting into the air over a travelers' encampment. The Casey of his time ?

An Ciarraioch · 26-10-2018 9:56pm

With minutes to go, fair to say the personal fear is rising!

Water John · 26-10-2018 9:59pm

BTW was everybody handed back their Polling Card, marked?

L1011 · 26-10-2018 10:00pm

Higgins first count if true

DeadHand · 26-10-2018 10:03pm

Tell me how wrote: »

We have local, national and European elections at least every 5 years.

Do you understand our political practices?

Yes, I do.

Tell me how many parties or individuals running in those contests mentioned, much less criticized, the enormous social welfare gravy train that will eventually run this nation off a cliff.

Rhineshark · 26-10-2018 10:04pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-michael-d-higgins-on-course-for-decisive-first-count-victory-as-peter-casey-surges-into-second-place-1.3677340?mode=amp

Paywall Andbut relevent bit in headline anyway

"Michael D Higgins on course for decisive first-count victory as Peter Casey surges into second place"

blanch152 · 26-10-2018 10:05pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1026/1006954-presidential-exit-poll/

Astonishing performance by Casey if true.

His vote is more than Labour ever got (possible exception of 1922). His vote is more than SF ever got, than the PDs, than PBP, than Democratic Left, than any other party other than FF or FG.

From 2% to 20% in less than two weeks.

I didn't believe he could get more than 10%, this is astonishing.

hotmail.com · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

blanch152 wrote:

From 2% to 20% in less than two weeks.

Probably very depressing to hear if you're an ordinary Traveller.

Capt'n Midnight · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1026/1006954-presidential-exit-poll/

A RTÉ exit poll conducted by Red C suggests Michael D Higgins is on course to be re-elected President, with the polling figures suggesting he will receive 58.1% of the first preference votes.

...
The exit poll also suggests that businessman Peter Casey will get 20.7% of the first preference vote.

It suggests Sinn Féin's Liadh Ní Riada will get 7.4%, with 6.3% for Senator Joan Freeman.

The poll suggests businessman Seán Gallagher is on 5.5% and businessman Gavin Duffy on 2.0%.

Freeman 6.3%
Duffy 2%

71.1% indicating they voted Yes,

counting starts at 9am

Ronan|Raven · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

What is astonishing about it? Shout populist ****e and watch people cling onto it?

DeadHand · 26-10-2018 10:07pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Not true. But stick with it.

Next you can tell us how there was a queue of people at 1 station, all wearing Casey badges, you spoke to 2 old ladies at another who said they'd voted Labour all their life but have had enough of travellers coming in to our country and taking all the jobs so this time are voting for Casey. At the next one you voted at, you were able to overhear someone filling in their ballot paper were able to make out the numbers they were writing on by the sound of their pen and going by the order on the paper you are sure Casey got #1.

Quite true, actually.

I don’t know why you need to be so rude and make such an absurd personal attack. Terrible anger.

We’ll see shortly, I predict a strong second for Casey. He has tapped into a reservoir of strong public feeling by speaking plain truths.

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2018 10:10pm

blanch152 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/1026/1006954-presidential-exit-poll/

Astonishing performance by Casey if true.

His vote is more than Labour ever got (possible exception of 1922). His vote is more than SF ever got, than the PDs, than PBP, than Democratic Left, than any other party other than FF or FG.

From 2% to 20% in less than two weeks.

I didn't believe he could get more than 10%, this is astonishing.

I wouldn’t get that excited about it. Random things happen in presidential elections; bandwagons build behind unlikely candidates...

Adamcp898 · 26-10-2018 10:15pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I wouldn’t get that excited about it. Random things happen in presidential elections; bandwagons build behind unlikely candidates...

Just look at Seanie G last time out :pac:

DeadHand · 26-10-2018 10:20pm

Incredible result from Casey. He defied the dogma.

His comments and brave stand thereon made rather than hurt his campaign, vindicating them.

So Michael D IS running again!

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