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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

124

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The cold air mass following the weak cold front from Thurs evening.

    yk4WZPe.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windy wet weather Sun through to Tues. Becoming quite mild from later Sun into Monday in a steady SW airflow.


    tempresult_sfe7.gif

    tempresult_oec1.gif

    arpegeuk-31-102-0_xfu5.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After a cool night a milder air mass from the SW spreading over the country tomorrow and for the coming days. Becoming windy and blustery and quite fresh on W and NW coasts. Rainfall seems to be confined to W and NW coasts, patchy light rain and drizzle a bit further inland possible in coastal counties perhaps. Staying dry in the E and S for the most part.

    Marine Warning in operation.

    nmm_uk1-41-21-4_iwe7.png

    tempresult_mro2.gif

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Scary amount of rain for the West coast next week if the 12Z GFS verifies!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,664 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Did someone delete my last post here? Would appreciate a PM or a mod note about why, otherwise I can only assume it was a database glitch!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Looks like things could settle a bit from Wednesday with HP ambling about to our west but near enough to keep things basically dry if not calm.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 484 ✭✭ANDREWMUFC


    Looks like things could settle a bit from Wednesday with HP ambling about to our west but near enough to keep things basically dry if not calm.

    Booooo


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HP ridging up over Ireland today and into tomorrow, being squeezed later Thursday from the W/ NW by a weak front but not making much inroads apart from drizzle and light rain in the W and N. Cold night in Store.

    bFiP5YM.png?1

    NASA Today

    OP1tuxk.jpg?1

    tempresult_jbj9.gif

    hirlamuk-41-24-0_evo2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    For some reason, Imgur isn't letting me upload pics... wanted to show the UKMO showing (near) record breaking high pressure for October. The September high pressure record was broken this year too. GFS is similar.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    For some reason, Imgur isn't letting me upload pics... wanted to show the UKMO showing (near) record breaking high pressure for October. The September high pressure record was broken this year too. GFS is similar.

    98tjhT1.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    ECM agrees with the above chart, although the high is centred further west.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The GFS is still going for record breaking October high pressure for Monday. The UKMO calmed down a bit, it is close to breaking the record but maybe not quite there yet.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Milder air replaced by cold arctic air from Fri.


    tempresult_hnd7.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Fresh day in store with plenty of showers of a convective nature with the risk of hail and thunder, more so on coasts. Some heavy showers showing up which could be quite blustery . Very cool up in Northern counties and a considerable windchill across the country.

    tempresult_bdo9.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windchill over the next few days

    arpegeuk-43-23-0_arm0.png

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    arpegeuk-43-47-0_nkg2.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    High ground in N N/W counties getting a dusting into Sat ?

    tempresult_tyl8.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Turning increasingly wintry tonight and into tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if reports show up of any snowfall, even if it is wet and sloppy :)

    WRF -NMM showing widespread -6C uppers and some -8C .

    Very cold in the wind tomorrow.

    Best chance of sferics possibly along the E / SE coast it would seem , possibly over the sea. Some chance in the NW also perhaps.

    tempresult_zqf7.gif

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    nmm_uk1-37-20-4_fik9.png

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    nmm_uk1-3-20-4_wyc6.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The majority of the latest runs showing the remnants of Oscar trending to track more off the NW coast. This would keep the strongest winds out to sea.
    ECMWF showing the storm deepening as it passes Ireland with center pressure getting as low as 950 hPa. The present ECM run showing windy conditions on coasts but nothing out of the ordinary atm. Wet few days over the weekend . Looking very mild Fri .compared to the last few days , possibly getting up to 14C or so.

    Still could alter track so needing monitoring. Will need to keep an eye on rainfall amounts the latter part of the weekend .

    RdJ60jP.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest guidance from the NHC shifts the track of what will be ex tropical storm Oscar further away again from Ireland keeping storm force winds well out to sea. Windy along the coasts.

    G1qvgKW.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The GFS 12Z has increased it's wind speeds a bit from the remnants of Oscar Sat evening along the W and NW coasts ( gusting to about 110 km/h or so ), ECM seems to be fairly consistent about 80-100 km/h along W / NW coasts, ICON has brought stronger winds nearer the coast on the latest run. Possibly blustery across parts of the country from about Fri evening to Sat evening.

    High Seas.

    Obviously a few days away yet and time for changes one way or the other.

    ehC9h6F.png


    NHC

    Oscar's winds should gradually
    diminish after it becomes extratropical, but the NHC official
    forecast remains above the various consensus aids from 36 hours and
    beyond and lies closest to the GFS and ECMWF global models, which
    should have a good handle on the cyclone's structure during the
    post-tropical phase.




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 24hr predicted rainfall up to 09.00 Sat and 24 hr rainfall up to 21.00 Sun

    Just for guidance as these charts may well change somewhat over the coming days. Presently looks like a fair amount of rain in the W and SW.

    rlaXFrh.png

    FO4Oqyh.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭piuswal




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    An extended windy spell for coastal areas of the W, NW over the weekend. Breezy if not windy everywhere at times and quite blustery in all coastal areas at times.

    Rainfall amounts in general are not as bad as were showing up earlier. Met Eireann talking about uncertainty if the S & E might get heavy rain Sun night / Mon morning.

    Getting very mild as Fri goes on and seeing temps in low to mid teens by early Sat. Mild over the weekend .

    Big seas off Atlantic coasts over the weekend.

    tempresult_dfs3.gif

    84-777UK_bnz5.GIF

    Uf6wcJH.png

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    arpegeuk-41-46-0_bak9.png

    nww3uk-0-60_jly4.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some Max wind predictions

    arpegeuk-52-63-0_ksd5.png

    nmmuk-52-72-0_kxl8.png

    iconeu_uk1-52-63-0_nid4.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After a cold start rising temperatures all day, will feel unusual after the spell of cold weather.

    tempresult_bnd5.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    24 hr precipitation predictions from the ECMWF up to 13.00 Sat

    0x0AoYm.png


    24 hr precip up until 12.00 Mon

    CBEj1d8.png


    LP to the S of Ireland giving plenty of rain up over Ireland Sun into Mon . ECMWF showing high totals in the S it would seem going by this run.

    9MrKsOU.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Current gust predictions from the WRF -NMM

    tempresult_hzl8.gif

    16C possible tomorrow

    nmm_uk1-41-31-4_zlh4.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Continues to look very wet in the S, SE ,E Sun into Mon on the ECM 0Z, Not all models showing as much rain

    dJnDXwa.png

    tempresult_jvj7.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tues looking blustery and wet especially along southern counties with the frontal passage. Mild enough 10-13C, clearing to showers in the Western half of the country in the afternoon. Colder airmass moving in from the Atlantic Tues evening with a continuation of showers, possibly hail and sporadic thunder ?

    RZVytGr.gif

    tempresult_eks7.gif

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    nmmuk-28-62-0_duy2.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Potentially disturbed weather coming up next Fri. Hard to know how this will look by Fri due to the complex nature of how the depressions will form and interact with the jet, and possible spin off Lp's . Will be interesting watching the models handle the upcoming spell of unsettled weather. Just on the cusp between this thread and +120hrs , so a fair degree of uncertainty. Worth keeping an eye on.

    TiS7xOp.png

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    tempresult_gya2.gifx4BjzIg.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECMWF 12Z Looks like very strong winds Fri on this run tight gradient as the system deepens close to Ireland. Long way off though .

    ECU1-120_wpq7.GIF


    850 hPa Winds

    ECU4-120_mng6.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Only borderline Orange at the moment. Still a long way off.
    Would affect east coast also with strong southerlies probably delaying or cancelling ferries.

    57db6fa097b135297f44ea38c19a5d7e.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some early indications of possibly being very wet for a time on Fri also.

    vLjOuTc.png


    P7rMpYX.png

    njut5J7.png


    Rough idea of totals for the week , spot flooding an issue as the week goes on, the land in the SW / S and SE becoming quite wet if not saturated by the weekend perhaps, lots of run off from high ground.


    sPjxLfn.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Wet and blustery during the frontal passage tomorrow, more so in the S of the country . A couple of squall lines perhaps tomorrow ?

    Weather approaching the SW / W now.

    KCDQ27l.jpg

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some big rain totals coming in by Fri evening . A lot more rain on top of the 81.6mm mickger844posts recorded in the last 3 days in Waterford . A possible 50 or 60 mm more on the way it would seem according to the ECM.

    QgRFhsF.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The European models keeping the Low on Fri further to the NW, the American models have a secondary deep low with the centre in over us keeping the strongest winds to the S. Could be a very wet day.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking very windy on coasts and windy overland on Fri as the depression deepens close to Ireland on the latest runs. As the models get to grips with the set up they have been increasing the wind speeds a bit over the last few runs. All now showing similar track and wind strengths. Probably still a bit under for being a named storm but wouldn't take much more additional wind speed to get a name.. Would have an impact in the UK also. Not sure which met office names the next one.

    Currently looking like gusts up to 110 km/h on coasts , with some exposed headlands getting up to 120 km/h. Gusting 80 to 100 km/h overland, with a few gusts to 110 possible in higher exposed ground.

    mI2zaKT.png

    ECU1-72_nsm8.GIF

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    All the main models looking quite similar now. Fast moving systems, with the strongest winds moving over in a few hours for most.

    tempresult_dno4.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The charts showing a bit less rain Fri than previous runs .The closer the depression gets to Ireland keeping the heaviest rain off the E coast and closer to and over the UK.

    Looking like between 10 and 30 mm, and much of it falling in a few hours.

    QmiE8bz.png

    tempresult_wlm8.gif

    tempresult_nen4.gif

    Projected Precipitation Totals up until +120 hrs.

    iconeu_uk1-25-120-0_kvp7.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I think the winds haven't increased over the last few runs for Fri. Maybe ever so slightly down a bit in general, more so over land but still very windy on coasts. What does seem to be showing up is very strong winds onto the S , SE and moving to E and NE coasts later from S and SSE winds backing to the SW later.

    Atm IMO looking like 90 -100km/h on coasts in general, could gust to 110 on S, SE , E and NE coasts. Overland could gust 80 - 90km/h approx but for a short time as the weather moves through quickly ( maybe slightly higher in the SE and E ) . Looks like quite heavy rain passing through quickly also.


    tempresult_yjc1.gif

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    4951_zox0.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Latest ARPEGE 18Z similar to the last run.

    tempresult_ghl7.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The SE and E showing up with quite high totals on some of the models up to late Fri. Kerry / W cork showing up with some high totals.

    arpegeuk-25-55-0_kdb2.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z Gusts

    d21CWrh.png


    LXq1tbM.png

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    Mean speeds in the SE, strongest winds moving through in a few of hours.

    5A28sNG.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The models haven't deviated much over the last few runs except the ECM showing slightly lower top wind speeds in general but more widespread gusting 80 to 90 km/h across the country. Would take note that the models have been showing the SE / E getting clipped by very strong winds for a time especially Wexford which may get the highest wind speeds. Tomorrow is more about the combination of strong winds and heavy rain leading to difficult conditions.

    tempresult_qps2.gif

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Getting windy on the coasts on Sunday , breezy in parts overland especially the SW. Looks mainly wet along coasts, some showers straying inland.


    oY6M0I2.png

    ECU1-48_mjz8.GIF

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Quite windy overnight from a S'ly direction and into tomorrow, more so on coasts. WRF seems to be overcooking it a bit compared to the European models on this one.





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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mild and humid day tomorrow. Possibly reaching 15C or a tad more.


    MDAKmjc.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Slow moving Cold front up along Atlantic coasts tonight and tomorrow bringing up to 30mm in places , slowly moving E and dissipating as it moves inland. Breezy and relatively mild more E, cooler under the rain on the Western half of the country. Spot flooding possible in places.

    8ttR2xu.gif

    9QlKM7J.gif

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    30-777UK_lrd8.GIF

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    arpegeuk-41-27-0_xjb2.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Winds turning from a SE direction more E'ly as we move into next week introducing a colder airmass from Europe. Looks largely dry until around Tues when showers will possibly make an appearance more so in the E / SE. Winds will freshen for the first few days of the week , more so on E coast's . Windchill will be a factor the early days of next week.

    Top Temps

    Mon 7 to 9C generally, bit higher near coasts coasts

    Tues 6 to 8C

    Frosts possible in a few sheltered places at night Mon and Tues but breeze will probably prevent freezing for most.


    tempresult_rvp2.gif

    ECU0-120_zae2.GIF

    nmm-3-120-0_esi3.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    With the cold airmass comes breezy conditions and windy along NE, E , SE, S coasts. Looks probably too windy at night for widespread frosts up to Weds next , maybe in some sheltered spots. Little precipitation until Tues /Weds probably more so in the E, SE and some moving inland. Little in the way of wintry showers showing up at present up to Weds apart from maybe sleety mix on the highest terrain I think. Going to feel very cold in the wind.

    tempresult_kqo7.gif

    Not too often we see the Jet coming from an easterly direction.

    tempresult_xgu7.gif

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