Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ECM now on board too for a spell of rain and some cool weather on Wednesday, so that just leaves the GFS on it's own with a warm and dry week next week. All of a sudden next week is looking more promising for farmers and gardeners wanting rain.

This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.



Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.



Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.



Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.



Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.



Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

thunderstorm risk is upgrading for the weekend, midlands, west and north-west most at risk. Probably won't be much for the east coast as usual.



On Sunday greatest risk is over Ulster and parts of the north-west and north midlands.



eastern areas might have a low risk on Tuesday.


Temperatures on Saturday, high teens to maybe 20C.



On Sunday the warmth is mainly across the north of the country.

latest GEM is similar to the GFS run, after an unsettled weekend things begin to warm up considerably next week particularly across Leinster and parts so Munster.

This may possibly be an outlier but if this verifies we could potentially see the warmest weather of the year so far.



On Wednesday and into Thursday warmer uppers crossing the country from the south-east with +8 to +13 uppers possible.

Next Friday may see +15 to +17 uppers across the country with some very warm and potentially hot conditions.







This mornings ECM was showing something very similar to this with +15 or +16 uppers across the country next Thursday into Friday. Hopefully next week's heat surge verifies, at this stage many of us would like the weather to settle down after a somewhat mixed June so far.

latest GFS is fairly similar again but perhaps a bit dryer and warmer. It struggles to get Monday's rain to the far east of the country with maybe only a few spits and spots of rain.

Another band of rain on Tuesday sliding up through the country, this fails to make it to south-eastern areas and parts of eastern Leinster. Temperatures creeping up to 20C in places with some fairly warm uppers across the country, but with cloud and rain it may not feel that warm.

Wednesday has light showery rain but they may not verify. Temperatures high teens to possibly 20 or 21C in parts of Leinster.

Thursday we extend the ridge across the country, temperatures into the low twenties in many areas with hopefully some decent spells of warm sunshine.



Friday builds the warmth further with many places getting to 23 possibly 24C.



Saturday (getting into FI territory here), could be the warmest day in quite a while with mid twenties possible in many places, high twenties possible in a few spots.





Turns cooler again from Sunday.

This is still very much knifedge stuff, I am not sure we are going to get much more of a westwards shift once we have that low pressure in place off our west coast from tomorrow. Hopefully that Azores gives it more than a nudge to get out of the way quicker next week. The difference between an unsettled week of 18C and a warming trend with mid twenties cans swing very quickly as it doesn't take much movement to stay in autumn or restart summer. It is also possible Leinster and munster may just end up in a little cloudy area of no mans land sandwiched between wetter and cooler weather to our west and much warmer and sunnier weather to our east.



If the ensembles are right, Dublin and much of Leinster may start to dry out from Sunday with very little rain possible over the coming week.

We will probably swing between cool and wetter and warm and dryer runs for next week a few more times given the uncertainty our position on the edge of the Atlantic creates when it comes to building up warm and dry weather while an Atlantic pattern is trying to get going.

The GEM has a slightly different take on the next 7 days compared to the GFS and ECM. Charts on all models are fairly similar up to next Thursday but then some disagreement about a cool breakdown next Friday.

The latest GEM run is a bit kinder to Ireland in terms of sunshine and warmth this week compared to the other models. The GEM is a fairly decent model and has performed quite well over the past month, certainly has got it right more often than the GFS which has had a poor run recently.

Having said that my confidence with this GEM run isn't particularly high as both the GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in that low for next Friday and the weekend.

Tuesday looks similar on the GEM with all the other models, the low pressure is just off to our west and the azores is builiding across England and Wales with a heatwave developing there. We are stuck in no man's land between low pressure and high pressure. Uppers are fairly high but we may not feel it as there could be bands of rain or showers over Ireland on Tuesday.





Despite the uppers, the temperatures on the ground not that great with alot of cloud and bits of rain around, low to mid teens at best, maybe a hint at high teens in parts of Leinster if we manage to get some spells of sunshine going.



Wednesday see's the Azores building over the UK with the ridge beginning to have an influence on the weather over Ireland. Any showers dying out by this stage and the +10 isoterm crosses into the country from the south-east.



Temperatures high teens to low 20's across the east and south with the south-east in particular getting quite warm inland. Still a bit cooler across the north and west with Atlantic air still in place, but it should be dry just about everywhere.



On Thursday the warm uppers move westward and we start drawing in very warm +10 to +14 uppers into the country, this would be enough to get to the mid twenties in places, particularly across the south-east.



Friday is where the models differ. GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in a low from the west with much cooler conditions spreading across all parts of Ireland and the UK into the weekend. The GEM is a bit different tho.

The GEM keeps the low out to our west instead of letting it topple in over the country.



Friday keeps very warm uppers across the country and especially across the south with mid twenties possible, low twenties elsewhere.



The low stays out to our west on Saturday and we start drawing in winds from the south-east, this lowers the temperature across eastern and southern coastal regions.



GEM finally goes for that breakdown on Sunday ( 2 days later than all the other models) with cooler air heading in from the west, but still possibly quite warm across the east on Sunday.



Of all the models this run is certainly the best one for Ireland and it keeps the azores ridge going for an extra few days. Although the GEM has performed well recently, I would like to see both the GFS and ECM fall in line with this run more before I begin to feel confident about any of this warm weather later next week and into the weekend.

eon1208 wrote: »

MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..

The main focus of my post is really this Sunday as it is something to watch, but as it's 5 days away it may not come to pass. Saturday looks decent enough with temperatures a bit warmer than we've had recently with relatively warm south-westerlies, could get close to 20C in places.

This low on Sunday looks like the main thing it will do is to introduce a cool spell which looks like lasting a few days. At the same time we do look like we'll start drying out as the Azores will make an attempt hopefully over the next 2 weeks.

Some of the other models aren't showing this very windy spell at all, keeping the low, wind and rain further to our north. It's the GFS that is showing this potentially very windy spell on Sunday.

after an incredibly wet start to July things are thankfully starting to dry out, particularly in eastern and southern areas.

Still a good deal of uncertainty in regards to this week's weather, particularly from Wednesday onwards.

The main point about this week is it will be considerably dryer than last week but it may still be mixed at times. Many eastern areas saw in excess of 50mm over the past week, this week we will be lucky to see 10mm to 15mm so there should be some dry periods during the week so it will be easier to get some gardening done. Temperatures have also been very poor for July so far, many areas are close to 2C below the seasonal average, however we will see a slight warm up in the temperatures this week.

A few models have hinted towards it turning much warmer or even hot by next weekend, these are outliers and they are unlikely to verify. If we get lucky with the azores ridge, temperatures could reach 22 or 23 in places by the end of this week.

Temperatures will be average or a little below at times over the next few days with rather mixed conditons and fair deal of cloud. More unsettled generally towards the north-west with spells of rain and drizzle there persisting for much of the coming week.

Monday will see things warming up slightly across the east and south, remaining cooler further north and west. Temperatures 12 to 16C across the north and west and 16C to 20C across the east and south if there are spells of sunshine.



Tuesday could bring a spell of rain across the country, much of this will be light or patchy in the east and south but it could be quite heavy across the west and north-west.



Tuesday will be quite a cool day across the country with temperatures 11 to 14C generally but it may be slightly warmer across the far south.



Wednesday will be a dryer day away from the north-west with the Azores lining up to have another go at influencing our weather.



Temperatures on Wednesday warming up again with high teens in many places, low to mid teens across the north-west where it may remain cloudy with rain or drizzle at times.



Thursday and Friday will be dry generally but more in the way of sunny spells. Temperatures beginning to recover too with high teens to maybe 20C possible in many areas. These days may provide the best opportunities to get the gardening done or lawns cut!





The weekend is quite uncertain so Saturday is as far as i'm going to go with this forecast for now. Most models want to bring the Azores ridge over us for the weekend but some models have the Atlantic rolling back in as early as Saturday which could deliver quite a cool and unsettled weekend in comparison to the other models.

Saturday is very much on a knife edge with a trialing band of rain rolling in from the Atlantic across the west and north, this could be heavy at times but as it moves eastwards it is likely to break up and become much patchier with higher pressure close to eastern and southern areas.



Temperatures on Saturday generally high teens to low 20's particularly if there are sunny spells, however the west and north may be cooler if the low from the Atlantic rolls in.



The uncertainty remains in the forecasts this week, particularly in regards to next weekends ridge, will it influence our weather or will the cooler Atlantic have it's way with us again remains to be seen.

Donegal Storm wrote: »

So another week of 13C, cloud and rain to look forward to in the north west, lovely stuff

If we get some luck with the models and the Azores it may improve in the north-west towards next weekend but we will know within the next 2 to 3 days how next weekend will play out. Fingers crossed because we all could really do with a few sunny and warm days, this July has been absolutely atrocious so far.