Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2021 6:26pm #1

Might as well put up a separate thread for this "event".

A cold front will move southeastwards across the country overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. As it does so it should readily turn to snow over land, however its intensity will most likely decrease the further southeastwards it moves.

ECM sounding show fairly good snow parameters (i.e. sub-zero through the lower levels and saturation up to near -10 C, which is just about getting into the optimum dendritic-growth zone). The cloud layer will not be very deep so precipitation should be fairly light, but inland northwest and north midlands should see the best intensity, with areas into Leinster also seeing something in the way of snowfall.

It will be during the night and it will pass through fairly quickly, but it is worth at least keeping an interested eye on.

Nqp15hhu · 05-01-2021 6:35pm

Looking forward to it.

murfo · 05-01-2021 6:38pm

Let me guess, that swathe of blue turns green as soon as it hits north county Dublin

05-01-2021 6:44pm

I intend to be sound asleep as this won't have enough Oooomph to get to this side of the wicklow mtns

pad199207 · 05-01-2021 7:38pm

Inland areas might just be in luck

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1346526168518950912?s=21

Danno · 05-01-2021 7:41pm

Hmmm, there is an interesting "wave" on that front as it pushes south too, a triple point develops, could pep up a bit too?

Nqp15hhu · 05-01-2021 7:42pm

Bit weird how the front avoids my area.

Danno · 05-01-2021 7:44pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Bit weird how the front avoids my area.

That's the way models can go sometimes, but remember they're indicative only - nothing is guaranteed at all.

Danno · 05-01-2021 7:45pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

I intend to be sound asleep as this won't have enough Oooomph to get to this side of the wicklow mtns

Reverse psychology only works on kids, not weather

:pac:

sdanseo · 05-01-2021 7:51pm

GL predicting snow is like Kermit predicting a heatwave. This must surely be a sure thing! :pac:

(a compliment dont worry)

Reckless Abandonment · 05-01-2021 7:54pm

I think the frog has hacked GL account...

KingJeremy · 05-01-2021 8:01pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Inland areas might just be in luck

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1346526168518950912?s=21

Yes!!! I might be in with a chance after all! Thought it was only east coast who would get a look in for snow this cold spell ;-)

pad199207 · 05-01-2021 8:02pm

KingJeremy wrote: »

Yes!!! I might be in with a chance after all! Thought it was only east coast who would get a look in for snow this cold spell ;-)

Looks like most of us in with a chance

nacho libre · 05-01-2021 8:04pm

Hopefully there will no last minute downgrades. It's just unfortunate that the precipitation will be light. Still it will be nice to get a dusting. I knew that snow in the shade was hanging around for a reason!

Kermit.de.frog · 05-01-2021 8:19pm

This is pretty much nailed in terms of snow but I think will be quite light beyond the midlands.

It will be falling on very cold or frozen surfaces so no flake will go to waste.

Nqp15hhu · 05-01-2021 8:23pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is pretty much nailed in terms of snow but I think will be quite light beyond the midlands.

It will be falling on very cold or frozen surfaces so no flake will go to waste.

Let’s hope so. We had a similar event a year or two ago that stayed as snow... produced 5cm in some areas of Donegal but did not stick here as not much snow fell.

When the precipitation arrived, it fell as virga. The Temps rose to 2c... and it turned to rain about an hour later.. east of us in Belfast, Antrim etc nothing fell at all.

So that is a potential - virga. Not being negative but these kind of events have the potential to evaporate away on the leeward side of mountains.

I will be watching the Inishowen mountains to see what happens.

Thelonious Monk · 05-01-2021 8:24pm

is this similar to what we got on NYE? very light dusting in Dublin but it was nice

Donegal Ken · 05-01-2021 8:25pm

The northwest looks the best place to be on Wednesday night and Thursday morning for Snow and the best rates. Parts of Donegal, Derry, Tyrone and Fermanagh seen up to 5cm elsewhere between 1cm to 3cm. Met Eireann may go with a nationwide warning tomorrow.

daniel_t1409 · 05-01-2021 8:40pm

Is there a chance wexford could get some snow from this?

Donegal Ken · 05-01-2021 8:42pm

daniel_t1409 wrote: »

Is there a chance wexford could get some snow from this?

Mostly likely not a whole lot could die out before it gets that far. Possibly a few flurries.

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2021 8:51pm

I need to post this. Don't be expecting to be snowed in.

Kermit.de.frog · 05-01-2021 8:55pm

The ECM has upped the amount of precip expected in the midlands a tad. Snow more prolonged but lighter further east. So that's a minor upgrade I guess.

Loughc · 05-01-2021 9:06pm

murfo wrote: »

Let me guess, that swathe of blue turns green as soon as it hits north county Dublin

Correct. It’s more like a sNOw event.

:P

Meteorite58 · 05-01-2021 9:23pm

Yes the NW and parts of the N should get a good coating of snow from this, light down along the country but a lot of areas could have a white dusting first light on Thurs, N midlands could get a decent coating of a couple of cm's. Getting very cold quickly on Weds evening ahead of the front, any snow that falls will be slow to clear especially the further N which looks to hold into Fri and could stay largely intact on the ground in the NW /N until Saturday with the temperatures staying so cold.

Nqp15hhu · 05-01-2021 9:40pm

Looks middling for me. It depends on the wind direction and the temps before it arrives.

Snowbiee21 · 05-01-2021 9:42pm

ME UPDATE: Wednesday night: Outbreaks of rain in the west and northwest will edge southeastwards over the country on Wednesday night, turning to sleet and snow in places, particularly across parts of midlands and north leading to poor travelling conditions. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2 degrees, with frost and icy patches. Freezing fog patches may also occur overnight in the light variable breezes, which will become light westerly by morning

Gonzo · 05-01-2021 10:15pm

Hirlam has the band of precipitation heaviest across the west and north. it dissolves fairly rapidly once it moves south of Northern Ireland and into the republic. By the time it is moving south over Meath and Dublin, there is not much precipitation left in it and some places could even stay dry.

fmiuk-1-50-0.png?05-19

Icon is roughly similar, the band dissolves as it moves south-eastwards and breaks up over Kildare, Wicklow, Dublin failing to reach Wexford, Waterford.

Arpege is more or less the same but the band of patchy precipitation just about makes it to the south-east.

arpegeuk-1-46-0.png?05-17

GFS shows heavier precipitation than the others and it makes it's way through the country intact, however it turns to rain as it pushes southwards.

48-574UK.GIF?05-12

Nqp15hhu · 05-01-2021 10:16pm

What do we need for this to stay as snow throughout? 850’s warm to -4c but I imagine it’s more than that?

05-01-2021 10:50pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

What do we need for this to stay as snow throughout? 850’s warm to -4c but I imagine it’s more than that?

Thickness

JanuarySnowstor · 05-01-2021 10:53pm

The situation on Friday also needs watching.
This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

Snowbiee21 · 05-01-2021 10:57pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The situation on Friday also needs watching.
This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

Red warning!!

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2021 10:59pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The situation on Friday also needs watching.
This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

I was just watching that. A cold upper pool passes down the Irish sea, so significant showers should develop and encroach on the east coast with any slight easterly component to the northerly flow.

daheff · 05-01-2021 11:02pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The situation on Friday also needs watching.
This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

Don't be such a tease.....

JanuarySnowstor · 05-01-2021 11:07pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The situation on Friday also needs watching.
This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

Parallel also upgrading for Friday.
For me at the moment Friday is now becoming the far bigger risk of snow (for Eastern regions)

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2021 11:13pm

ECM simulated radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

red_bairn · 05-01-2021 11:30pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

ECM simulated radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

Getting a 404 for that image.

Gaoth Laidir · 05-01-2021 11:39pm

red_bairn wrote: »

Getting a 404 for that image.

Sorry. Anyway, here is the link to the hourly charts.

05-01-2021 11:52pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Sorry. Anyway, here is the link to the hourly charts.

6am Friday morning :eek:

:eek:

pauldry · 05-01-2021 11:55pm

I think there is going to be 52,658 snowflakes falling from this. Though we will probably only end up getting 50,000

Donegal Ken · 05-01-2021 11:57pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

ECM simulated radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

That's what you will be getting waking up trying to look out the window Thursday morning ðŸ˜‚

YanSno · 05-01-2021 11:59pm

Meanwhile 18z ICON is having none of it for friday. It brazes pass the east coast.

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 12:01am

AuntySnow wrote: »

6am Friday morning :eek: :eek:

Yeah, but...

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 12:02am

Donegal Ken wrote: »

That's what you will be getting waking up trying to look out the window Thursday morning &#55357;&#56834;

For some reason I'm still seeing my animated gif quoted there...

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 12:03am

Thanks for sharing G. Your charts show 2cm or more for me and temps staying at 0c throughout the precipitation.

850hPa does not exceed -4c.

bosco12345 · 06-01-2021 12:06am

Cavan looking good for this. Lets hope we get atleast 3cm for a decent coating ❄

06-01-2021 12:32am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Yeah, but...

Hey ,there's no need to add complications:D

lolie · 06-01-2021 12:39am

I was looking at photos earlier sent in old emails and see this one of a similar event to tomorrow nights.
A band or rain that fell as snow that weakened as it crossed the country on 5th Jan 2008.
It only gave a dusting and it thawed that day when the sun came out.

Danno · 06-01-2021 1:06am

lolie wrote: »

I was looking at photos earlier sent in old emails and see this one of a similar event to tomorrow nights.
A band or rain that fell as snow that weakened as it crossed the country on 5th Jan 2008.
It only gave a dusting and it thawed that day when the sun came out.

In the snow starved years after 2001 until 2009 that was considered epic!

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 4:36am

Might be missing a trick for Thursday night

Snow showers getting ever closer to the east coast

Could be more snow in Dublin/Wicklow tomorrow night than tonight

AuntySnow Anti-Snow will be devastated

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 7:05am

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 8:53am

What about the event though?

Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

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