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Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

  • 05-01-2021 6:26pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭


    Might as well put up a separate thread for this "event".

    A cold front will move southeastwards across the country overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning. As it does so it should readily turn to snow over land, however its intensity will most likely decrease the further southeastwards it moves.

    ECM sounding show fairly good snow parameters (i.e. sub-zero through the lower levels and saturation up to near -10 C, which is just about getting into the optimum dendritic-growth zone). The cloud layer will not be very deep so precipitation should be fairly light, but inland northwest and north midlands should see the best intensity, with areas into Leinster also seeing something in the way of snowfall.

    It will be during the night and it will pass through fairly quickly, but it is worth at least keeping an interested eye on.

    538417.gif

    538418.gif

    538419.gif

    538397.png

    538395.png


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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Looking forward to it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 129 ✭✭murfo


    Let me guess, that swathe of blue turns green as soon as it hits north county Dublin


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I intend to be sound asleep as this won't have enough Oooomph to get to this side of the wicklow mtns


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Hmmm, there is an interesting "wave" on that front as it pushes south too, a triple point develops, could pep up a bit too?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Bit weird how the front avoids my area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Bit weird how the front avoids my area.

    That's the way models can go sometimes, but remember they're indicative only - nothing is guaranteed at all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    I intend to be sound asleep as this won't have enough Oooomph to get to this side of the wicklow mtns

    Reverse psychology only works on kids, not weather :D:D:D :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    GL predicting snow is like Kermit predicting a heatwave. This must surely be a sure thing! :pac:

    (a compliment dont worry)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    I think the frog has hacked GL account...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 133 ✭✭KingJeremy


    pad199207 wrote: »

    Yes!!! I might be in with a chance after all! Thought it was only east coast who would get a look in for snow this cold spell ;-)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    KingJeremy wrote: »
    Yes!!! I might be in with a chance after all! Thought it was only east coast who would get a look in for snow this cold spell ;-)

    Looks like most of us in with a chance :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Hopefully there will no last minute downgrades. It's just unfortunate that the precipitation will be light. Still it will be nice to get a dusting. I knew that snow in the shade was hanging around for a reason!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This is pretty much nailed in terms of snow but I think will be quite light beyond the midlands.

    It will be falling on very cold or frozen surfaces so no flake will go to waste.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    This is pretty much nailed in terms of snow but I think will be quite light beyond the midlands.

    It will be falling on very cold or frozen surfaces so no flake will go to waste.

    Let’s hope so. We had a similar event a year or two ago that stayed as snow... produced 5cm in some areas of Donegal but did not stick here as not much snow fell.

    When the precipitation arrived, it fell as virga. The Temps rose to 2c... and it turned to rain about an hour later.. east of us in Belfast, Antrim etc nothing fell at all.

    So that is a potential - virga. Not being negative but these kind of events have the potential to evaporate away on the leeward side of mountains.

    I will be watching the Inishowen mountains to see what happens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,477 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    is this similar to what we got on NYE? very light dusting in Dublin but it was nice


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    The northwest looks the best place to be on Wednesday night and Thursday morning for Snow and the best rates. Parts of Donegal, Derry, Tyrone and Fermanagh seen up to 5cm elsewhere between 1cm to 3cm. Met Eireann may go with a nationwide warning tomorrow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    Is there a chance wexford could get some snow from this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Is there a chance wexford could get some snow from this?

    Mostly likely not a whole lot could die out before it gets that far. Possibly a few flurries.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    I need to post this. Don't be expecting to be snowed in.

    538432.jpg


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The ECM has upped the amount of precip expected in the midlands a tad. Snow more prolonged but lighter further east. So that's a minor upgrade I guess.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    murfo wrote: »
    Let me guess, that swathe of blue turns green as soon as it hits north county Dublin

    Correct. It’s more like a sNOw event. :D :P


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes the NW and parts of the N should get a good coating of snow from this, light down along the country but a lot of areas could have a white dusting first light on Thurs, N midlands could get a decent coating of a couple of cm's. Getting very cold quickly on Weds evening ahead of the front, any snow that falls will be slow to clear especially the further N which looks to hold into Fri and could stay largely intact on the ground in the NW /N until Saturday with the temperatures staying so cold.

    kiwpI0r.gif

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    rgHikhK.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Looks middling for me. It depends on the wind direction and the temps before it arrives.


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    ME UPDATE: Wednesday night: Outbreaks of rain in the west and northwest will edge southeastwards over the country on Wednesday night, turning to sleet and snow in places, particularly across parts of midlands and north leading to poor travelling conditions. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2 degrees, with frost and icy patches. Freezing fog patches may also occur overnight in the light variable breezes, which will become light westerly by morning


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,961 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Hirlam has the band of precipitation heaviest across the west and north. it dissolves fairly rapidly once it moves south of Northern Ireland and into the republic. By the time it is moving south over Meath and Dublin, there is not much precipitation left in it and some places could even stay dry.

    fmiuk-1-50-0.png?05-19

    Icon is roughly similar, the band dissolves as it moves south-eastwards and breaks up over Kildare, Wicklow, Dublin failing to reach Wexford, Waterford.

    iconeu_uk1-1-44-0.png?05-16

    Arpege is more or less the same but the band of patchy precipitation just about makes it to the south-east.

    arpegeuk-1-46-0.png?05-17

    GFS shows heavier precipitation than the others and it makes it's way through the country intact, however it turns to rain as it pushes southwards.

    48-574UK.GIF?05-12


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    What do we need for this to stay as snow throughout? 850’s warm to -4c but I imagine it’s more than that?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    What do we need for this to stay as snow throughout? 850’s warm to -4c but I imagine it’s more than that?

    Thickness


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The situation on Friday also needs watching.
    This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
    A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    The situation on Friday also needs watching.
    This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
    A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!
    Red warning!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The situation on Friday also needs watching.
    This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
    A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

    I was just watching that. A cold upper pool passes down the Irish sea, so significant showers should develop and encroach on the east coast with any slight easterly component to the northerly flow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,898 ✭✭✭daheff


    The situation on Friday also needs watching.
    This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
    A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!

    Don't be such a tease..... :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The situation on Friday also needs watching.
    This low to our East is nudging further West with every run.
    A further continued shift could give significant snow to the East on Friday daytime!!
    Parallel also upgrading for Friday.
    For me at the moment Friday is now becoming the far bigger risk of snow (for Eastern regions)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    ECM simulated radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

    ezgif-7-4405a3e91338.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,343 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    ECM simulated radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

    ezgif-7-4405a3e91338.gif

    Getting a 404 for that image.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    red_bairn wrote: »
    Getting a 404 for that image.

    Sorry. Anyway, here is the link to the hourly charts.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sorry. Anyway, here is the link to the hourly charts.

    6am Friday morning :eek: :D :eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,175 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think there is going to be 52,658 snowflakes falling from this. Though we will probably only end up getting 50,000


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    ECM simulated radar for Wednesday night/Thursday morning

    ezgif-7-4405a3e91338.gif

    That's what you will be getting waking up trying to look out the window Thursday morning 😂


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭YanSno


    Meanwhile 18z ICON is having none of it for friday. It brazes pass the east coast.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    AuntySnow wrote: »
    6am Friday morning :eek: :D :eek:

    Yeah, but...

    538476.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    That's what you will be getting waking up trying to look out the window Thursday morning ��

    For some reason I'm still seeing my animated gif quoted there...


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Thanks for sharing G. Your charts show 2cm or more for me and temps staying at 0c throughout the precipitation.

    850hPa does not exceed -4c.


  • Registered Users Posts: 222 ✭✭bosco12345


    Cavan looking good for this. Lets hope we get atleast 3cm for a decent coating ❄


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, but...

    538476.png

    Hey ,there's no need to add complications:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭lolie


    I was looking at photos earlier sent in old emails and see this one of a similar event to tomorrow nights.
    A band or rain that fell as snow that weakened as it crossed the country on 5th Jan 2008.
    It only gave a dusting and it thawed that day when the sun came out.
    Snow.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    lolie wrote: »
    I was looking at photos earlier sent in old emails and see this one of a similar event to tomorrow nights.
    A band or rain that fell as snow that weakened as it crossed the country on 5th Jan 2008.
    It only gave a dusting and it thawed that day when the sun came out.
    Snow.jpg

    In the snow starved years after 2001 until 2009 that was considered epic!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Might be missing a trick for Thursday night

    Snow showers getting ever closer to the east coast

    iconeu_uk1-1-54-0.png?06-04

    54-574UK.GIF?06-0

    57-574UK.GIF?06-0

    Could be more snow in Dublin/Wicklow tomorrow night than tonight

    AuntySnow Anti-Snow will be devastated


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,901 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    iconeu_uk1-42-30-0.png?06-07

    iconeu_uk1-41-30-0.png?06-07


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    What about the event though?


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