Storm Conditions Tuesday night/ Wednesday (Wind gusts from 100km/hr to 140km/hr)

Su Campu · 24-12-2011 2:02am #1

Jean Byrne on the late bulletin mentioned that they're keeping an eye on a depression that will pass by the northwest late Tuesday and deepen further as it crosses Scotland Wednesday.

Most of the models do show a low forming near the Azores during Monday as a cold plunge from Baffin Bay strengthens the southwesterly jetstream. The low travels northeastwards, strengthening as it does so, and passes to our northwest, en route to Scotland. There is a lot of variation in the models, and in fact the GEM shows no sign of such a system, instead building the Azores high over us instead. The ECMWF and BOM show the deepest system with the GFS and UKMO less intense. In any case, it is not yet at its deepest as it passes us, but it could bring some strong and possibly stormy winds to the northern half of the country as it deepens over Scotland. With its source near the Azores it will have abundant moisture, so could give decent rainfall depending on its exact track and speed.

Could of course be nothing, but it is something to tide us over in an otherwise quiet time weatherwise! :rolleyes: Key factors influencing its evolution will be the extent of the cold plung from Baffin Bay and the exact development of the jet. All very sizeable factors in a data-sparse area, and we all know that these are what sent Joachim south a few weeks ago.

Elmer Blooker · 24-12-2011 2:36am

And Jean B also said the mild weather will return after this (potential) storm which means that high pressure to the south will rebuild. This is very ominous, believe me, I think we are getting stuck in a rut that could last up to 6-8 weeks and one of the mildest Januarys on record could be on the cards.
Regards, Scrooge.

Pangea · 24-12-2011 2:40am

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

And Jean B also said the mild weather will return after this (potential) storm which means that high pressure to the south will rebuild. This is very ominous, believe me, I think we are getting stuck in a rut that could last up to 6-8 weeks and one of the mildest Januarys on record could be on the cards.
Regards, Scrooge.

Even Scrooge came up trumps in the end

Keep the faith and I'l be smacking you with a snowball come January.

Su Campu · 24-12-2011 12:22pm

Not much going on for us in the latest runs, but it looks like possibly hurricane force winds in western Scotland during Wednesday, and possibly some wintry showers on hills in Ulster for a time.

It's a very complex upper pattern in mid Atlantic, near 25W, that will continue cause some uncertainty in how the low evolves, and it could go either way.

Sponge Bob · 24-12-2011 2:37pm

Vedur.is shows it staing far enough offshore that it will not bother us as it tracks up Tuesday. It veers east tuesday night and heads towards the north sea. Were it to veer east sooner we would be smacked of a Tuesday.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=wind

YouTookMyName · 24-12-2011 3:29pm

Windy out there now.

Deep Easterly · 24-12-2011 10:14pm

12z run is still showing potential for gales or strong gales in northern areas for Wednesday:

Even if this doesn't affect us directly, it is going to be interesting to monitor the development and track of this (potential) storm low.

delw · 24-12-2011 11:05pm

will this drag colder air behind it or is it too far north too really have a cold effect on us

maquiladora · 24-12-2011 11:30pm

18Z GFS brings strong winds to exposed northwest/north coasts, but nothing more than they are used to.

More stormy conditions for Scotland.

At least its something to follow anyway, things would need to change for there to be any significant impact here.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2011 11:39pm

Yep GFS now going with a deeper system.

ECM was first to predict this system being strong and the other models
are slowly moving towards a consensus.

Su Campu · 25-12-2011 12:12am

It's just getting into the Hirlam's 60 hour timeframe now, which has it forming from a pool of +50 °C theta-e due west of the Azores on Monday morning. What's keeping its track to our west is a building blocking high over France, which will reach up to 1045 hPa over the bext 36 hours, fed by a strong 200 mph jet. Any change in this blocking high will cause a shift in the depression's track, so we'll keep an eye on that.

Deep Easterly · 25-12-2011 3:02am

delw wrote: »

will this drag colder air behind it or is it too far north too really have a cold effect on us

Looking like it will draw in some cooler air behind it:

but nothing more than a watery, westerly based Pm (mP) air mass bringing a few weak showers, that may turn wintry esp on hills in the NW which is in keeping with the current trend this winter so far.

ninebeanrows · 25-12-2011 11:12am

Here is the latest chart for the period of concern.

Most models have this well off the north coast but still some time to change.

ninebeanrows · 25-12-2011 9:42pm

Hi folks.

Just to highlight that the GFS 12z is very firm with placing this further north however a glance at the control run and the ENS would illustrate that the track of this low could come further south.

Here is an example to highlight.

Obviously the OP run is more resolved and should have a better prediction but one to watch.

gens-2-1-72.png?12

Sponge Bob · 25-12-2011 11:11pm

I suppose the big variable...like the variable that affected the second storm last week that eventually went to Europe instead is how it is ingested and driven by the Jet Stream.

Start with Tomorrow, strong system progress northwards driven by Jet.

By Tuesday the Jetstrem is pronounced southerly rather than westerly and weakened. Unlikely to come right at us from the W or SW at that point and carried northwards past the west of Ireland

Finally the whole stream moves east early weds, I'll show the 6z prognosis not the 12z. The storm is caught in a hole west of it and drifting slowly eastwards. We are caught in a NW - W airflow especially across the north of the country.

Jetstream reforms and in conjunction with storm centred to Noreast blows some graupel across us from the NW on Thursday.

maquiladora · 26-12-2011 2:00am

Still looks like a Scotland event to me, with strong winds only for the exposed northwest coasts here, but nothing exceptional.

Looking pretty consistent on the models, cant see a major track change at this stage myself.

Su Campu · 26-12-2011 3:17am

maquiladora wrote: »

Still looks like a Scotland event to me, with strong winds only for the exposed northwest coasts here, but nothing exceptional.

Looking pretty consistent on the models, cant see a major track change at this stage myself.

Yep, it's looking a little benign for us alright, just a breezy day for Malin Head! Still, at least it's something to look at!

nacho libre · 26-12-2011 3:22am

Not really Su Campu. There is a young buck in Choom crying out for a countrywide wind storm at this stage:p

maquiladora · 26-12-2011 3:26am

nacho libre wrote: »

Not really Su Campu. There is a young buck in Choom crying out for a countrywide wind storm at this stage:p

One day....one day....its coming to blow us all away!

*shakes old book in the air*

ninebeanrows · 26-12-2011 3:59pm

Just to reiterate this is beginning to look quite dangerous for some northern areas with gusts above 70 knots expected.

Today we have high winds with Belmullet hitting a gust of 64knots

Sponge Bob · 26-12-2011 4:12pm

Looks like the storm will not 'pause' over the north sea but will continue steadily into Scandinavia. This means high winds weds in the north ( Belmullet and points north) but potentially not for as long as previously forecast. It may be no worse than today in fact.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=wind

UKMO is issuing severe weather warnings for Scotland Weds and NOT for NI and Scotland Weds...this may of course change.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

Very strong winds will affect northern Britain on Wednesday, including the populated Central Lowlands of Scotland, bringing gusts of 60 to 70 mph with 80 mph in exposed areas. The public should be aware that this could cause disruption to transport.

Kippure · 26-12-2011 5:12pm

A little further south:eek:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

mattser · 26-12-2011 5:16pm

Scrolling quickly down these pages must be the closest thing possible to an acid trip !!

darkman2 · 26-12-2011 6:30pm

It's not looking particularly severe at this stage in the North and Northwest. The main thrust of violent storm force winds is almost certainly heading for coastal parts of Western Scotland. Having said that still very windy and blustery with strong gusts up to 110km/h in the Northern half of the country in exposed areas and less the further South one goes. Heavy blustery showers too driven well inland in on that strong wind. And turning significantly colder for a time too though that won't last long. Some of the showers could turn wintry later on Wednesday mostly over high ground.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2011 11:08pm

Away from Donegal where it could get very windy, I think the main impact of this event will be its cold front sweeping across the country late Tuesday, and potentially squally showers with that, and then what the public will most likely notice in Dublin and the south in general, the much colder temperatures on Wednesday during the daytime hours. For most this will be more of a moderate than a strong wind event but we can't rule out localized severe gusts if there's a squally front involved.

But looking forward, we seem to be edging back into the set-up of early to mid December which favoured strong wind events. It would just take a bit of gradient enhancement to get into some very strong wind situations in early to mid January.

darkman2 · 26-12-2011 11:17pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Away from Donegal where it could get very windy, I think the main impact of this event will be its cold front sweeping across the country late Tuesday, and potentially squally showers with that, and then what the public will most likely notice in Dublin and the south in general, the much colder temperatures on Wednesday during the daytime hours. For most this will be more of a moderate than a strong wind event but we can't rule out localized severe gusts if there's a squally front involved.

But looking forward, we seem to be edging back into the set-up of early to mid December which favoured strong wind events. It would just take a bit of gradient enhancement to get into some very strong wind situations in early to mid January.

+1. All it takes is one of these developing depressions to hitch a ride on the jet stream and steer the cyclones on a more easterly course rather then the usual passage up by Iceland. And given the jet stream is aimed at us like a big vindictive finger atm that's a real possibility. Hope it buckles soon though and we get more amplification for some blocking high to develop down the road preferably in an advantageous location for coldies looking for snow.

derekon · 26-12-2011 11:28pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Away from Donegal where it could get very windy, I think the main impact of this event will be its cold front sweeping across the country late Tuesday, and potentially squally showers with that, and then what the public will most likely notice in Dublin and the south in general, the much colder temperatures on Wednesday during the daytime hours. For most this will be more of a moderate than a strong wind event but we can't rule out localized severe gusts if there's a squally front involved.

But looking forward, we seem to be edging back into the set-up of early to mid December which favoured strong wind events. It would just take a bit of gradient enhancement to get into some very strong wind situations in early to mid January.

Hi MT,

If we seem to be edging back into more stormy/windy scenarios, this would indicate that the Atlantic/Jet Stream is fully in charge, would it not?

How does this tally with your prediction of much colder weather from the 7th January 2012? Or are you thinking of issuing a revised winter forecast?

PS, love the daily weather reports and they are appreciated!

D

Sponge Bob · 27-12-2011 1:56am

The Jet Stream by itself can hardly be forecast weekly never mind seasonally. Unfair question !!!

Deep Easterly · 27-12-2011 12:14pm

Storm low really beginning to wind up now.

Fax analysis sequence from 12z yester to 06z today: (in 6hr increments)

The UK Met show pressure values within the low at 980 hPa at 06, which represents a 6hr fall of 15 hPa between 00z and 06z this morning and a 12hr fall of 23 hPa up to 06z.

Meteocenter.com have 06z reading at 983 hPa (image attached, too large to post up) while a ship reading of 991 hPa is Ogimet's lowest; the same ship was reporting mean wind speeds of 52 kt at 06z, which is a full storm 10.

Have only looked at the EMHI model this morning but there seems to be a slight upgrade for stormy conditions to set in tomorrow morning in the NW & N:

Pretty much bog standard breezy for everywhere else though (yet again :rolleyes:)

Hooter23 · 27-12-2011 4:50pm

Just showed on sky news there they had winds up to 125mph in norway

darkman2 · 27-12-2011 5:16pm

It's not really a storm unless Dublin is affected in some way, shape or form:p

snaps · 27-12-2011 6:19pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Just showed on sky news there they had winds up to 125mph in norway

Yes i was flicking through the channels earlier and i saw some devastation in Norway. Roofs off building, over turned cars, Containers blown off ships in dock.

Sponge Bob · 27-12-2011 6:36pm

The Scandinavian storm was called Dagmar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-27/dagmar-s-hurricane-winds-cut-power-to-170-000-people-in-nordic-countries.html

Storm Brings Damage Across Nordic Region
By Kati Pohjanpalo -

The storm Dagmar lashed the Nordic countries with Hurricane-strength winds, cutting power and Norwegian natural-gas exports as it damaged buildings, shut roads and halted train traffic.

About 264,500 homes in Finland, Sweden and Norway were without electricity as utilities such as Vattenfall AB worked to restore power after the storm yesterday toppled trees and damaged lines, according to estimates today by companies and grid operators.

In Finland, the number of those blacked out has increased as winds have picked up again, leaving 190,500 customers at Fortum Oyj (FUM1V), Vattenfall and Savon Voima Oyj without electricity, the utilities said. Some failures may last for days, Fortum said. In Sweden, about 44,000 homes were without power as of 2:33 p.m., according to a compilation from the three-largest utilities, including Vattenfall and EON AG.

The storm is causing the worst outages since the Janika storm in November 2001, said Heini Kuusela-Opas, a spokeswoman for Vattenfall in Finland, by phone today.
Ormen Lange Halt

About 30,000 homes were without power in Norway as of 2 p.m., grid operator Statnett SF said in a statement. Statoil ASA (STL), Norway’s largest oil company, reduced staffing on its offshore oil platforms over the weekend while maintaining production, Stavanger Aftenblad reported yesterday, citing Baard Glad Pedersen, a company spokesman.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA)’s Ormen Lange natural gas field was operating at 50 megawatt power out of a capacity of 200 megawatts, the Nord Pool power exchange said late yesterday in a statement, citing grid disruptions. A Shell spokesman, who declined to be identified by name, said by phone today that the company is now increasing gas exports after a halt.

The highest average wind measured in Norway was 44.6 meters per second (100 miles per hour), with gusts reaching 64.7 meters per second, Norway’s Meteorological Institute said. All measuring stations had winds peaking at more than 32 meters per second, or hurricane strength, the institute said. Gusts exceeded 30 meters per second at the Helsinki-Vantaa airport yesterday, the Finnish Meteorological Institute said.
Trains Canceled

Finns in the southeastern and southern parts of the country, including the capital Helsinki, were told by the police to stay indoors during the storm. In Sweden, train traffic in the middle and northern parts of the country was halted and smaller, local roads were temporarily closed.

Train traffic in much of northern Sweden was expected to restart earlier today after being canceled on Christmas Day, according to the Swedish Transport Administration. Buses are replacing some train traffic in Finland, train operator VR said.

Fortum will pay as much as 700 euros ($915) in compensation to each customer who has been without power for 12 hours or more, the company said. It has also moved workers from less affected areas to help fix the damage.

Vattenfall expects to pay as much as 900 kronor ($131) in compensation for Swedish customers with a failure of 12 hours to 24 hours, said Magnus Kryssare, a spokesman at the Stockholm- based utility.
Cost Estimates

About 500 damage claims have been filed to Norwegian insurers, a number that will probably rise “significantly” in coming weeks, Finance Norway, which coordinates claims from natural disasters, said in a statement yesterday. Claims will probably exceed the 275 million kroner ($46 million) paid after the storm Berit, Tonje Westby, the group’s spokeswoman, said in the statement. Storm-related claims may top 1 billion kroner this year, the most since 1995, she said.

Finnish insurers are compiling cost estimates, Risto Karhunen, head of loss prevention and security at the Federation of Finnish Financial Services, said by phone. Yesterday’s storm may have caused extensive damage because it covered the entire southern part of the country, he said. In comparison, four local storms in 2010 caused insurers to pay out about 100 million euros in claims, he said.

ninebeanrows · 27-12-2011 6:53pm

Met Eireann Update

Tonight

A clearance to occasional rain or hail showers will follow and it will become much colder as the rain clears. It will become extremely windy overnight with stormy conditions developing in northern and northwestern parts by morning. Lowest temperatures of 2 to 5 degrees but two windy for frost.

Tomorrow

It will be stormy tomorrow through many parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, with severe and damaging gusts of 110 to 140km/hr in exposed places( strongest on northern coasts). Winds should not be as severe further south but still very windy and squally. A cold, bright day with some sunny spells but widespread rain and hail showers and local thunder especially in the west and north. Top afternoon temperatures of just 5 to 7 degrees.

Harps · 27-12-2011 7:50pm

Nice and stormy here already off the NW coast of Donegal, first time in a few years I'm at home for a decent storm so looking forward to tomorrow, will probably take a drive up to the cliffs if its not too bad

Sponge Bob · 27-12-2011 8:28pm

The storm is called Robert. NB NB NB NB NOT BOB!!! NB NB NB NB . Robert!

Hooter23 · 27-12-2011 8:45pm

The rain is just starting here in galway looks really heavy on the radar

Su Campu · 27-12-2011 9:04pm

The storm centre is actually around 100 miles further north than the ECMWF had progged it at 18Z, in the LFQ of a small 60 m/s jet streak. We could see this deepen a little more and remain on a more northerly track, taking the strongest winds with it.

Go to Satreponline and play with the pseudo WV and IR images (as forecast by the model), overlaying them with the actual images. This shows the actual images to be a little north of the forecast.

Airmass RGB with ECMWF forecast overlay, showing the low centre to the north of the model forecast.

Sponge Bob · 27-12-2011 9:24pm

Might overrun the forecast NE track and give us westerlies not north westerlies later tomorrow and thursday......so less graupel and quicker return to Heatwave, yahhhay!

mike65 · 27-12-2011 11:59pm

Bleugh really nasty out there now. Pull the blanket over the head stuff.

Oscar Bravo · 28-12-2011 12:59am

Pat Clarke on Late forecast,winds gusting generally 60km/hr and up to 135kmh/hr in Hilly and Exposed parts of W/Nwest.

Deep Easterly · 28-12-2011 1:18am

No upgrades on the 18z runs anyway.

All eyes on Malin Head, again, tomorrow:

tylercollins · 28-12-2011 1:34am

I'm heading up to Malin Head myself tomorrow! I'm actually off work for a change so I'm going to make the most of it. Video footage will be got as well.

Any rough ideas of peak winds?

Deep Easterly · 28-12-2011 1:49am

tylercollins wrote: »

Any rough ideas of peak winds?

Consensus seems to have peak winds around noon or shortly after but likely to remain gusty up there until late afternoon.

M.T. Cranium · 28-12-2011 1:55am

Tyler, would expect the strongest winds to set in around 0700-0800 and last beyond 1300h before letting up, so peak winds likely to be about 1000-1100 and in the vicinity of 45 knots gusting to 70. The gradient decreases sharply just to the south of mid-Donegal and I expect we may hear reports of about 50-60 knots from some of our weather watchers but only 40-50 knots in Mayo and other more exposed locations. This really almost misses Ireland except for the Inishowen and nearby.

tylercollins · 28-12-2011 2:25am

Thanks guys, looks like I'll be leaving here pretty early in the morning then

Sponge Bob · 28-12-2011 2:32am

Tell ya what MT. I reckon today ( Weds) won't be much worse than Monday was...as in perhaps 10-15%% higher and the monday peak gust in Malin was 56KT....meaning around 64-65KT max today. My 2c anyway.

Mondays gusts did not even get their own thread ....sure why would you when a snow bunny thread out on FI looks so funky instead. :cool:

Deep Easterly · 28-12-2011 2:52am

Sponge Bob wrote: »

sure why would you when a snow bunny thread out on FI looks so funky instead. :cool:

Embrace the snow bunny SB:

and make your peace.

Sponge Bob · 28-12-2011 2:57am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Embrace the snow bunny SB: and make your peace.

Harps · 28-12-2011 4:45am

Strong winds with heavy horizontal blowing rain & hail here, had a scary experience driving home an hour ago driving straight into the rain, had to pull over it was that bad with visibility down to a few metres.

On Arranmore Island here so probably similar conditions to Malin Head, shame I have no weather station

irish1967 · 28-12-2011 6:54am

Extremely windy here now with vicious squally rain showers. Just in from work. Water very high along coast here and not high tide (4.1m) for 2 more hours. Noticeable drop in temp too.

Storm Conditions Tuesday night/ Wednesday (Wind gusts from 100km/hr to 140km/hr)

Comments