FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2018 3:55pm

Not as cold maybe after next weekend but still keeping the cool theme going and looks potentially wet unsettled out to +240 on the ECMWF 0Z

Next weekend looks like a good early blast of cold arctic air. Temps set to stay cold from Fri to Mon now I think with nights getting colder through the weekend leading to widespread frost Sun and more so Mon going by present charts, good agreement between the models. Will be interesting to see the effects of all that cold air passing over the relatively warm SST's at this time of the year. ECMWF early indicators showing plenty of convective showers and with cold uppers down to -4C or -5C you would expect some of hail and possible thunder , more so on coasts especially the Northern Counties and down along Atlantic coasts and some straying inland on what looks like a brisk wind in coastal areas at the beginning of the weekend.Would expect bright sunny spells also. Is it too early to mention the S word

. Maybe a dusting on Mountains along Northern coasts perhaps ?

Kermit.de.frog · 21-10-2018 7:51pm

12z ECM is pretty chilly for the time of year in a brisk enough northeasterly airflow.

ECM1-144.GIF?21-0

Temperatures in mid - high single figures with some rain or hail showers around.

A bit of an introduction to Winter.

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2018 8:12pm

ECMWF 12Z keeping the cold air mass going well out to +240. Even colder now past next weekend than the last run.

harr · 21-10-2018 8:13pm

So it’s definitely looks likely to be fairly cold Sunday morning/ early afternoon?
I have a few friends running marathon on Sunday morning and they are trying to gauge clothing options.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-10-2018 8:19pm

harr wrote: »

I have a few friends running marathon on Sunday morning and they are trying to gauge clothing options.

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2018 8:39pm

harr wrote: »

So it’s definitely looks likely to be fairly cold Sunday morning/ early afternoon?
I have a few friends running marathon on Sunday morning and they are trying to gauge clothing options.

Mod Note: Have answered this in the Autumn thread. Best to keep chat there. Thanks

Harry Palmr · 21-10-2018 8:56pm

First person to snowcast should be banned.

pauldry · 21-10-2018 9:52pm

It will be 7 to 10c the day of Dublin Marathon Id say

Meteorite58 · 23-10-2018 8:44pm

ECMWF 12Z showing some rough weather at the end of the run, towards the end of next week. LP system coming off Greenland and deepening as it approaches Ireland. Worth keeping an eye on this one to see if it shows up on the next few runs. The Jet looks to power up and help steer the depression towards us going by current charts anyway. GFS showing a similar version of it as well. We will see.

MJohnston · 24-10-2018 5:23pm

I figured this is on topic, it's a write up of the upgrades to the GFS model that NOAA are working on:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/

Some key quotes about the anomaly correction score (1 would be perfect):

For the period of mid-August to mid-September of this year, using this metric, the FV3 model had a score of 0.903 while the operational GFS score 0.897 for the northern hemisphere. For the entire globe, the FV3 had a score of 0.883 and the GFS was 0.872.

These are not bad scores, and it is nice to see some modest improvement from the FV3, but it still is not the best in the world. For the entire globe, the FV3 model would still rank behind the best-in-class European model (0.910) and the United Kingdom Met Office (0.887). Essentially, the FV3 upgrade appears to bring the US model from third or fourth best global weather model to pushing the United Kingdom for second-best in the world.

Meteorite58 · 25-10-2018 8:32pm

The models out in FI have taken many twists and turns over the last couple of days with and the only consistency is cold weather with LP's nearby and showing different timings and different depths in pressure. Around mid week next shows complex weather around our showers with forecasts only becoming reliable near the date. Cold rain and breezy / windy at times and probably quite cloudy at times. Not showing the deep depression at the end of the week as strong as previous runs, GFS shows it well off the NW, ECM not showing much influence from a LP well off the coast, GEM showing it off the NW but later. Would expect the models to chop and change over the coming days.

Meteorite58 · 26-10-2018 9:01pm

The models trending LP's into FI. Looking wet if not very wet around next weekend. Windy at times, ECM back showing another deep depression out at the end of the run but too soon to know if this will materialize.

An unsettled outlook.

JCX BXC · 28-10-2018 1:01pm

Met &#201 wrote: »

End of week: Current indications suggest that Friday will be wet and very windy, with rain and strong south to southeast winds. Risk of extremely windy or stormy conditions developing late Friday and Friday night, especially in west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster, as winds veer southwesterly, with squally showers.

Interesting.

sryanbruen · 28-10-2018 5:33pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Interesting.

Yes, each of the models, GFS, ECM, GEM and UKMO, showing a deep area of low pressure directly over Ireland next Saturday in one way or another. ECM 0z was the deepest out of the 4 but it was revealed as a big outlier in its ensembles.

Artane2002 · 28-10-2018 5:58pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes, each of the models, GFS, ECM, GEM and UKMO, showing a deep area of low pressure directly over Ireland next Saturday in one way or another. ECM 0z was the deepest out of the 4 but it was revealed as a big outlier in its ensembles.

Wow, the GFS is looks like it has the least deepest low for once :eek: . One to keep an eye on.

Meteorite58 · 28-10-2018 8:40pm

ECM has the remnants of Oscar ( or a part of it phased with an area of LP ) further off the W coast keeping strongest winds out to sea, windy on coasts on this run.

GFS has it deepening after it passes Ireland and a second area of LP deepening also after it passes over Ireland .

GEM shows centre of LP near NW Ireland and producing strong winds.

UKMO showing very deep over Ireland ( deepening on its approach ).

ICON showing similar to the GEM and producing very strong winds.

So a large spread on possible outcomes from the near miss to direct hit producing very strong winds so lots more runs to get a more clear picture.

UKMO 961 hPa , ICON 961 hPa , ECMWF 968 hPa, GEM 973 hPa, GFS 985 W coast of Ireland / 980 hPa Center of Ire / 977 hPa off NE

EDIT: ECM has the Storm center come in from the NW and pass over the N of the country . Initially 968 hPa and 977 hPa over the N before heading up over Scotland. Fishy looking track on this run.

Meteorite58 · 28-10-2018 9:04pm

Time to put a few of these to keep an eye on this.

NHC

Oscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial
motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast
to continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the
south side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic.
Oscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the
cyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or
northeastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly
flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models
agree on this general scenario, though there are differences
regarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature
and how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic.
That said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Meteorite58 · 29-10-2018 12:05pm

GFS has moved the potential storm further out W keeping the strongest winds offshore but the ECMWF, UKMO and ICON have it tracking close and showing strong winds for Ireland. GEM not showing it develop much over Ireland .

At this stage the general theme is for some heavy if not very heavy rain over the weekend and possibly into the following week.

Potential for very unsettled wet and windy weather over the weekend.

The NHC have mentioned inconsistencies in track of Oscar in its latter stages so there is still a lot of uncertainty on how this might impact Ireland ( if it does at all ) at the end of the week.

850 hPa winds

hatrickpatrick · 30-10-2018 3:25am

Impressive Scandi High showing up at the end of tonight's ECM run - expect the models to be in flux for the next several days though until we get a proper handle on Oscar. As we saw with Hurricane Chris earlier this year, when there's an ex-Hurricane in the mix, the models can go a bit haywire in our part of the world for a few days until its track is resolved.

ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

sryanbruen · 30-10-2018 11:14am

Yes ECM 0z at +240 hrs was amazing with blocking highs taking over the pattern and if we were to roll on another few hours or days, we would likely find the low pressure sinking southwards into the Mediterranean giving us easterly winds which would be very cold in November.

However, I will remain skeptical until I see all models picking up on this and it being within the "somewhat" :pac: reliable 5-day timeframe. ECM is on its own here, for now.

GEM at +240 hrs was fairly similar but Scandi High was much weaker and pressure was higher over the Mediterranean than on the ECM 0z.

Meteorite58 · 01-11-2018 1:30pm

Lp's coming in off the Atlantic looks like the theme well out to if not past +240hrs.

Looks like November weather all right.

Oneiric 3 · 01-11-2018 4:52pm

Not sure if this would be the correct thread to post this in, or even if it is of interest to most on here, but the ECMWF 06z & 18z runs are now available on the 'WeatherModels' site (which is subscription based - about 10 Euro a month for 'personal use') but perhaps might become available on their publically available 'Weather.US' site soon? I don't know.

Here is an example. The 'precipitable water' forecast charts for 00z Monday from both the 00z run and the 06z run. Definitely subtle differences.

So far, it would seem both the 06z and 18z runs only go out as far as 144hrs, and seem to be released at a slower rate than the main 00z and 12z runs.

piuswal · 02-11-2018 11:40pm

http://www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/ex-hurricane-oscar-on-its-way-towards-nw-europe-this-weekend-nov-3-4th/

http://www.severe-weather.eu

Not sure if this site has been posted or where it should go if not!

Meteorite58 · 08-11-2018 1:26am

Entering a S to SW airflow next week, looks to become milder by midweek for a possible few days air sourced from the subtropics perhaps, charts showing temps could reach low to mid teens up to maybe Fri or so.

No doubt rain a feature.

pad199207 · 08-11-2018 1:32am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Entering a S to SW airflow next week, looks to become milder by midweek for a possible few days air sourced from the subtropics perhaps, charts showing temps could reach low to mid teens up to maybe Fri or so.

No doubt rain a feature.

Lovely and mild great. All this nonsense about easterlies and cold now can wait until December.

Harry Palmr · 08-11-2018 9:08pm

Looks like some sort of easterly HP is in the offing, no doubt it'll be too far east for us and we'll end up with stalled Atlantic fronts

Live image so will change

Kermit.de.frog · 10-11-2018 10:16pm

Some increasing signs of a far more settled period of weather with high pressure the more dominant feature centered nicely around the Baltics in the 3rd week of November. If we get that southeasterly flow it would be very pleasant for a time though never mild.

A caveat is there could be a little anticyclonic gloom (stubborn trapped cloud) around initially this time of year.

Set fair for the next few weeks - nothing remarkable on the horizon.

I'd be watching for any signs that high pressure is declining and building back west allowing for a colder regime from the north before the end of November. That would be quite a change.

Captain Snow · 11-11-2018 7:04pm

Can you imagine if this came off.

:eek:

Sammy2012 · 11-11-2018 7:27pm

Repeat of November 2010??

Artane2002 · 11-11-2018 7:33pm

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Repeat of November 2010??

At the moment it looks like it could get cold but definitely not as extreme as 2010.

Captain Snow · 11-11-2018 7:51pm

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Repeat of November 2010??

Starting to think that. We do have a blocking signal to our east in the Long range

Meteorite58 · 12-11-2018 10:07pm

Certainly a cooler trend showing in the charts, big differences in how it pans out out to +240. European Blocking winning out leading to SE /E for a time, some crisp days, cold nights / foggy at times, inversion layers / grey skies at times ? , ECM looks a bit wintry out at +240 with a LP over us feeding in wet N / NW'lys under cold uppers. Will be interesting seeing the charts evolve over the next few days to see where this is going.

Harry Palmr · 12-11-2018 10:09pm

Pity we didn't have this in the summer - oh wait

nacho libre · 12-11-2018 11:32pm

Will there be enough residual energy left in the vortex to stop retrogression to the favoured spot to our north west, that is the question. If it doesn't come off with the jet stream going off to Africa, and, more importantly, blocking looking like continuing over Scandanvia that may well in time lead to a favourable stratospheric response longer term. In other words we will likely get more than one bite of the cherry. We may not even need a stratopsheric warming to get a proper cold spell this winter.

Villain · 13-11-2018 2:36pm

Interesting FI charts continue, in my opinion, it is too early to be getting excited, cool but nothing special.

sryanbruen · 13-11-2018 2:50pm

Villain wrote: »

Interesting FI charts continue, in my opinion, it is too early to be getting excited, cool but nothing special.

Nothing special in terms of our actual conditions i.e. cold, damp, dull, but the synoptics being produced by models (multiple models at that) are very abnormal and strange.

Villain · 13-11-2018 3:41pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nothing special in terms of our actual conditions i.e. cold, damp, dull, but the synoptics being produced by models (multiple models at that) are very abnormal and strange.

Very true indeed, just a little too early for us imo but we could see reloads later in the coming weeks which could have much bigger impact.

patneve2 · 13-11-2018 5:46pm

Unreal North-North Easterly blast straight from the Arctic on the latest GFS. Still far out though

nacho libre · 13-11-2018 7:47pm

The latest ECM is not quite as good as the GFS output- but we may still get there(a Greenland High) in the longer term.

Reckless Abandonment · 13-11-2018 8:12pm

Not as good as GFS but
Vortex getting a beating, Great to see this early

arctictree · 13-11-2018 8:52pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Unreal North-North Easterly blast straight from the Arctic on the latest GFS. Still far out though

That's pretty much the chart needed for November snow.

pad199207 · 13-11-2018 10:21pm

Meteorite58 · 13-11-2018 10:32pm

Possible Snapshot : ECM for a few runs now has been showing a LP drift up towards Ireland around next Tues / Weds and running into the cold airmass moving in off Europe, looks like it could produce some wintry precipitation perhaps, more so on high ground in the E / SE. Looks cold with a max of 6 to 8C by day with a considerable windchill , possibly strong onshore E'ly winds. Brrrr...

hatrickpatrick · 13-11-2018 11:35pm

Pub run rolling out now, will be interesting to see if it keeps up the trend. The question at the moment is whether or not the block showing up to our North can push its way westward into Greenland, or whether the PV will be strong enough to push it out of the way. 18z so far doesn't show it as far to the east as the epic 12z did - next few frames will be crucial:

12z

gfsnh-0-210.png?12

18z

As always, this is most certainly subject to continuous changes over the next week.

EDIT: Rest of the 18z run shows a resurgent polar vortex. Keep an eye on the models tomorrow morning to see which trend they decide to follow. To pre-empt any "RIP Winter 2018" sh!te, this is very far from over.

Every decent cold spell we've had has involved FI charts flip flopping a good bit beforehand, even the epic one earlier this year.

Meteorite58 · 14-11-2018 10:10pm

ECM UKMO bringing in the cold much earlier ( Tues ) than the GFS ( Thurs), GFS goes on to pour in the cold after that whilst the 12Z ECM cuts it off out to +240 at least on present runs anyway. Nothing certain. Worth noting that the ECM is radically different this run compared to the last which was much colder from Tues out to the end of the run. Possible swing back again.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-11-2018 2:12am

This is quite telling.

This is the median of the ensembles at 240hrs on the ECM. High pressure likely to be to the north and the southern arm of the jet stream cutting south over the med.

EDM1-240.GIF?14-0

BLIZZARD7 · 15-11-2018 11:44am

Beautiful 06z - Vintage charts being pumped out now

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

Heavy Snow showers moving into the east on a bitter North Easterly -

gfsnh-0-288.png?6

Artane2002 · 15-11-2018 11:53am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Beautiful 06z - Vintage charts being pumped out now

Heavy Snow showers moving into the east on a bitter North Easterly -

Wow... I wouldn't rule out thundersnow in that setup. Gets even better than your chart.

leahyl · 15-11-2018 11:58am

Only the east for now....obviously this is all still FI but I hate when it’s only the east! Still, great to see these trends.

Artane2002 · 15-11-2018 11:59am

leahyl wrote: »

Only the east for now....obviously this is all still FI but I hate when it’s only the east! Still, great to see these trends.

The south and north coasts could get something depending on the exact wind direction.

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST