Are we headed for another crash?

c_man · 14-01-2016 1:57pm #1

I've been hearing a lot recently about 2016 being the year that the global economy will crash and naturally I want to turn to the residents of AH for their input.

RBS has warned its client to prepare for “cataclysmic year” and "“Sell everything except high quality bonds." Oil is going down down. China had their recent "market correction". My mate down the pub reckons it's all going to go tits up.

Aside from the obvious economic impacts, such a crash in this year would have big effects on all the upcoming elections. Interesting time.

I only have a passing knowledge of these things but what do ye think? Any signs of it in your own job? Are you doing anything to prepare? Should I be stocking up on pantyhose and chocolate?

Bongalongherb · 14-01-2016 2:00pm

Clients told to seek safety of Bunds and Treasuries.

What's a Bund ?

plys · 14-01-2016 2:02pm

I don't know what a tracker mortgage is...

Pinch Flat · 14-01-2016 2:17pm

Start stock piling spam and pasta

kjl · 14-01-2016 2:18pm

c_man wrote: »

My mate down the pub reckons it's all going to go tits up.

Well in that case....

seamus · 14-01-2016 2:19pm

Stock market crashes and economic crashes aren't the same thing. Money in the stock markets isn't real money.

The problems arise when companies are too leveraged against stock markets with their cash and then the arse falls out of it. The conditions here in Ireland are nowhere near the same as they were back in 2007. There's no reason to expect a 10% stock market drop to result in massive job losses or wage cuts like before. In fact, no reason not to expect moderate growth here to continue.

Bongalongherb · 14-01-2016 2:19pm

Not another recession ffs.

podgemonster · 14-01-2016 2:26pm

Buckle-up Buckaroo!!

RDM_83 again · 14-01-2016 2:27pm

My money, which I don't have any off so I'm safe to ignore, is that the tech companies bubble is going to burst hard.

SEPT 23 1989 · 14-01-2016 2:28pm

If oil goes down to 20 dollars a barrel the knock on effect will be as bad as 2008

cml387 · 14-01-2016 2:30pm

See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
And they call economics a science?

The Backwards Man · 14-01-2016 2:30pm

The arse will fall out of the peer services soon I'd say, maybe not this year but soon. The three Rs will fcuk them, Regulations, Revenue, and the Realisation by their subcontractors that they are getting a very lean end of the stick.

Apart from that, everybody else just spend spend spend.

sbsquarepants · 14-01-2016 2:31pm

Bongalongherb wrote: »

What's a Bund ?

Goes under or around an oil tank to contain the oil in case of leaks.
Don't see how the future of the world economy depends on them though. Unless......fill it up with cheap oil....... wait for it to go up again.....yacht.
OP you're a genius:D

conditioned games · 14-01-2016 2:32pm

The worlds financial system is on life support and has been since 2008. Central banks and governments around the world have been printing currency and creating debt like crazy the past 7 years to prevent deflation taking hold in the world economies. Now with oil down at $30 a barrel it looks like we're heading into a deflationary period anyway with economic indicators around the world getting more negative. Anyway only so long you can put off the inevitable, the current financial system we are on has been around since after world war 2 which has developed major cracks so we are due a change in the coming years. 2016 looks like it will be turbulent so exiting times ahead.

The Backwards Man · 14-01-2016 2:32pm

cml387 wrote: »

See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
And they call economics a science?

Economics is as scientific as your mother telling you not to get drunk at the teenage disco. Perfect in hindsight.

valoren · 14-01-2016 2:32pm

Shouldn't this thread belong in Bargain Alerts?

Some solid and quality and huge companies shares should be on sale then this year if this is true.

Zulu · 14-01-2016 2:33pm

Well start crying collapse now, so you can be sure to be on the "told you so" bandwagon.

5rtytry56 · 14-01-2016 2:35pm

Good Old AH. Tin Hat Time! :pac:

Dyr · 14-01-2016 2:35pm

We're always headed for another crash, only a question of when

sbsquarepants · 14-01-2016 2:36pm

cml387 wrote: »

See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
And they call economics a science?

Inflation is bad, so the opposite of bad must be good right, not if you're an economist:D

They say the definition of an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow exactly why it was the thing they predicted yesterday didn't come to pass.
They make the shít up as they go along.
You can actually get nobel prizes in this shít. It's like winning the nobel prize for palm reading.

5rtytry56 · 14-01-2016 2:36pm

valoren wrote: »

Shouldn't this thread belong in Bargain Alerts?

Some solid and quality and huge companies shares should be on sale then this year if this is true.

no!...NO!!

The Recycle Bin

SEPT 23 1989 · 14-01-2016 2:37pm

Bongalongherb wrote: »

What's a Bund ?

burger buns

jam_mac_jam · 14-01-2016 2:38pm

sbsquarepants wrote: »

Inflation is bad, so the opposite of bad must be good right, not if you're an economist:D

They say the definition of an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow exactly why it was the thing they predicted yesterday didn't come to pass.
They make the shít up as they go along.
You can actually get nobel prizes in this shít. It's like winning the nobel prize for palm reading.

yes because that's all economists are for, telling the future...

Aongus Von Bismarck · 14-01-2016 2:38pm

I can see there being corrections in a number of markets. I stand to make significant money in the event of a crash in European shares. The Australian economy tanking due to a commodities bust would also serve me well.

c_man · 14-01-2016 2:39pm

seamus wrote: »

Stock market crashes and economic crashes aren't the same thing. Money in the stock markets isn't real money.

Well, I suppose for most people the effect would be their pension pot right? That's fairly real for the general public.

Valetta · 14-01-2016 2:40pm

Pinch Flat wrote: »

Start stock piling spam and pasta

Clog up your computer and arteries at the same time.

That'll really help.

jam_mac_jam · 14-01-2016 2:41pm

c_man wrote: »

Well, I suppose for most people the effect would be their pension pot right? That's fairly real for the general public.

And also effects insurance companies, and banks and lending, investment money for companies so they can employ people, trade. But no its special not real money

seamus · 14-01-2016 2:42pm

c_man wrote: »

Well, I suppose for most people the effect would be their pension pot right? That's fairly real for the general public.

Depends on where they're stored. The last time a lot of people had their pensions tied up in portfolios which included property and medium-risk investments. Anyone who's still stupid enough to be doing that deserves what's coming tbh.

Or you could just not have a pension, like me.

The Backwards Man · 14-01-2016 2:43pm

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

I can see there being corrections in a number of markets. I stand to make significant money in the event of a crash in European shares. The Australian economy tanking due to a commodities bust would also serve me well.

Folks, put everything you have in fancy sausages, Riesling and log cabins.

wil · 14-01-2016 2:45pm

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

yes because that's all economists are for, telling the future...

Well they are pretty sh!t at remembering the past.
They do a good job of denying the present.
So that just leaves....

Live in the d'now

Bongalongherb · 14-01-2016 2:45pm

I wonder if Steve has an update on this ?

Steve Keen of which is a professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. Steve was one of the few economists in the world to predict the past financial crisis.

Well Steve what do you think ? over to you Steve.

KomradeBishop · 14-01-2016 2:48pm

Not necessarily another crash, but we are in for permanent-deflation - or at least, permanent until there is a seriously huge change in economic policy.

Look back at the Great Depression in the 1930's: It was a big crash, followed by an ailing 'recovery' (from a weak stimulus), and then a second smaller crash (from contracting spending) - before WWII war spending created a huge stimulus/recovery - we're in a similar situation now, at the point of the smaller 'crash':
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Sept/great-depression-unemployment-9.png

If we are to recover now, it's either going to be through a big change in policy that leads to a massive domestic stimulus, or through a very big war - or we're going to have permanently set-in deflation, and a truly massive increase in income/wealth inequality, that will make the past ~10 years look like a picnic.

Aongus Von Bismarck · 14-01-2016 2:49pm

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Folks, put everything you have in fancy sausages, Riesling and log cabins.

It would sure beat investing it in turf, tired anecdotes and inane questions.

wil · 14-01-2016 2:55pm

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

It would sure beat investing it in turf, tired anecdotes and inane questions.

So reduce, recycle and reuse (going backwards)

The Backwards Man · 14-01-2016 2:57pm

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

It would sure beat investing it in turf, tired anecdotes and inane questions.

How come?

Three things that are guaranteed to have a healthy ROI

hairyslug · 14-01-2016 3:01pm

Just tell me when it's time to crack open peoples skulls and feast on the goo inside.

As long as we all panic it'll be grand, have a cup of tea.

KomradeBishop · 14-01-2016 3:02pm

Bongalongherb wrote: »

I wonder if Steve has an update on this ?

Steve Keen of which is a professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. Steve was one of the few economists in the world to predict the past financial crisis.

Well Steve what do you think ? over to you Steve.

I know his writing well - I think his position would be, that we're still in the same economic crisis that began in 2007/8 - and that we've been weighed down by the huge amounts of Private Debt, preventing a recovery (absent sufficient stimulus) - i.e. that we are in debt deflation, and that we are now about to see a significant worsening of the debt-deflationary spiral, as the meagre/misdirected stimulus of QE has finally failed (as I predicted it would not far off this time last year).

Steve Keen's prediction was based on the massive amount of Private Debt that kicked off the 2007/2008 crisis, and since that massive debt hasn't been resolved, there's not really much new to predict - this stage of the crisis (slipping into deflation proper) was just an inevitability waiting to happen, to anyone with knowledge of the above.

BattleCorp · 14-01-2016 3:10pm

seamus wrote: »

Or you could just not have a pension, like me.

Feck pensions.

When people get too old to work and become a burden on society, give them a glass of whiskey and a pistol and ask them to do the decent thing.

cowboyBuilder · 14-01-2016 3:12pm

Of course it will happen again, it's paddyland where greed and stupidity will kick in.

Properties in Dublin are already at stupid rates.

screamer · 14-01-2016 3:12pm

Well sure we'll just all talk it up until it all happens economic hasn't been around long enough to serve us well. Even the crap we learned in school about activities in developed countries had been turned on its head. Everything is cyclical although with economic maybe cynical is a better word.

Ruu · 14-01-2016 3:18pm

Lego is the best investment.

FTA69 · 14-01-2016 3:21pm

Ruu wrote: »

Lego is the best investment.

Fact, and when your gaff gets repossessed you can simply build a new one.

Zulu · 14-01-2016 3:36pm

FTA69 wrote: »

Fact, and when your gaff gets repossessed you can simply build a new one.

And you don't need planning permission. Fact.

may not actually be fact.

c_man · 14-01-2016 3:38pm

Zulu wrote: »

And you don't need planning permission. Fact.

may not actually be fact.

No planning permission? Easy. Just attach a few wheel bits to the bottom and you're away!

*may not be road worthy

K-9 · 14-01-2016 3:57pm

cml387 wrote: »

See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
And they call economics a science?

Social Science I believe, and humans are far more irrational than we realise, including myself!

Must go and spend these new Punts that were printed in 2010. Even Kenny had to row back on some of the claims he made recently about that time.

MarkAnthony · 14-01-2016 3:59pm

The Backwards Man wrote: »

Folks, put everything you have in fancy sausages, Riesling and log cabins.

Enough Riesling and I'll put my Fancy sausage in pretty much any log cabin.

melissak · 14-01-2016 4:10pm

It stands to reason that if we keep doing the same stupid things we will have the same results

Into The Blue · 14-01-2016 4:12pm

Bongalongherb wrote: »

What's a Bund ?

Captures spillages from leaks in production plants.

Bio Mech · 14-01-2016 4:42pm

MarkAnthony wrote: »

Enough Riesling and I'll put my Fancy sausage in pretty much any log cabin.

Funny yet disturbing image

KomradeBishop · 14-01-2016 5:10pm

melissak wrote: »

It stands to reason that if we keep doing the same stupid things we will have the same results

It's deliberate though - not something 'we' are doing, something being done to us - it's not a mistake. Looks who stands to gain, through every stage (good and bad) of the crisis: The same people who caused it in the first place.

5rtytry56 · 14-01-2016 5:34pm

wil wrote: »

Live in the d'now

Do the coke and hookers OP.

Are we headed for another crash?

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