Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Rain totals predicted by the ECM up to Fri night

Plenty of rain between here and Monday

Sunday models still showing the deepening LP track up off the W coast and gets close to the NW /N coasts . Frontal snow a big potential in North Connacht, Ulster and maybe some N midlands counties Sunday night / early Monday morning as the as the warm front moves into cold air, thinking more than likely if it will be a big dump of wet heavy snow. Chart below is total accumulation but a lot of this could be melting fairly quickly. Windy weather across the country, currently looks like getting up around 100 to 120 km/h on the coastal fringes of the W, NW and N, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland on Monday. After the fronts go through an increasingly cold air mass spreads over the country introducing wintry showers towards later Monday into Tues and becoming increasingly cold with more snow potential from early Tuesday. Windy Tuesday in parts so bitterly cold expected, ECM showing only getting up to 4 or 5C in general, a bit higher on some coastal fringes.

Models have pulled back on the wind strength from that Low on Monday, now more like getting up to 110 km/h on coastal fringes and 80 to 90 km/h overland, making for rough enough conditions in Northern counties with probably slushy snow lying for a time into Monday and lots of run off melt water from the snow which could be from 5 to 10 cms .

typhoony wrote: »

GFS and to a lesser extent UKMO going for a serious wind event this Saturday.

Has the makings of a named storm event if it keeps evolving like the majority of the models are showing typhoony. Ellen might get her day soon!

ARPEGEE and GFS very similar in strength, timing and track, ICON has it coming in earlier and lower and stronger and the ECM has it well off shore with the strongest winds well missing us. So the ECM very much the odd one out atm ? Will throw up some current maps to see how this progresses over the coming days. All showing the feature as a deepening storm on approach, all bar the ECM showing very to extremely strong winds more so on the Western side of the country at this stage.

ECM 12Z ( as the earlier run ) came in line with the rest of the models in bringing very strong winds over Ireland for Saturday, more so along Atlantic coastal counties. The storm is shown to be deepening on approach with the ECM showing it get down to 950 hPa , the others not as low but close , to about 955 hPa or so. Currently across the models would think are showing gusting 120 to 130 km/h along coastal counties from Kerry to Donegal as the strong winds sweep up along the coasts from Sat morning to late Sat night /early Sunday morning. Strong winds over land with highest gusts over the middle third of the country gusting up around 110 km/h from the afternoon until the evening.

Slow enough moving system.

Will need to see if this holds it's track, timing and strength.

So at just around 60 hrs away the models are all fairly similar with track and strength at this stage. Approaching and deepening from the W and tracking relatively slowly close to the W and NW and drifting N towards N of Scotland.

Looks like an extremely cold day with a considerable windchill, wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow showers, prolonged rain early Saturday and could see a band of frontal rain turn to sleet and snow from mid morning but that will need to be fine tuned nearer the event. Rainfall totals wont help the flooding situation.

Yeah GFS looks very strong but a bit Southerly compared to the bunch. In saying that ICON is after going very wayward in the latest run delaying the system and showing the strongest winds later in the day. This looks against the run of play from the main models. I think an average between the ECM , ARPEGE and UKMO perhaps.