FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

There are more signs that this very prolonged dry spell is coming to an end in about a week's time. Over the next week we will have some rain in the form of showers, nothing too heavy.

The ECM brings the cold northerly same as the GFS but then starts moving the jetstream north-west to south-east and is opening up the gates to some rather heavy rainfall. The ECM becomes more unsettled and is generally very cool from Wednesday to the end of it's run.

A cold weekend to come with -5C uppers just off the north coast knocking on our door. Those cold northerly winds are really going to bite on Sunday.





From Monday the 8th we get slightly milder but we bring back the westerlies with showers.



We finish on the 11th of June with a big area of low pressure ready to topple in over us with very chilly north-west winds originating from Greenland.





If the ECM verifies we really are heading into a chilly first half of June, this could give last year's cold June a run for it's money.

ECM brings rain everyday from the 7th of June:

tonight's GFS still continuing with the warming trend from next week, it will take a while to get back to average temperatures but then the warming just keeps on going right to the end of FI. A few of the runs are really switching on the heat towards the end of the run. This run is also a downgrade overall in terms of rainfall. Much of Europe becoming very warm or hot too.

next week's return to high pressure is pretty much a bust at this stage. We try to get a ridge this weekend but it appears as if it's not going to last more than a couple of hours to maybe 1 day. The Azores is really trying to get going in our direction but the jet stream with it's conveyor belt of lows is constantly spoiling things for us and getting in the way.

As is the way all summer we are so close to drawing in warmer and dryer conditions but the jet-stream is just refusing to get out of the way or move northwards. At this stage a return to a dryer and warmer period could be a bit like the carrot on a stick affect we get in the winter where the cold and snow is always 10 days away and eventually we run out of winter.

ECM is unsettled right to the end of it's run:



UKMO keeps us with the flat westerly for next week:



GEM is generally unsettled next week too.



GFS is now very unsettled for next week with only hints of high pressure returning around the 21st of July but even that looks flimsy.

GFS estimating 30 to 70mm of rain to fall over the coming week to 10 days. Depending on tracking of low pressures this could either upgrade or downgrade.



The wait for dry and settled weather goes on.

Thanks guys, it's great to know that all our weather updates and posts are appreciated. The main reason we all put time into posting about the weather and looking into the crystal ball of fantasy island is because we love to talk about the weather, it is interesting and challenging to try and predict it at the best of times. We are not always right, and sometimes we are even guided by incorrect or poorly performing models but as ever the weather is always a learning process due to how unpredictable it can become.

Latest updates I have today are a little bit more promising than what we've seen over the past 2 to 3 weeks. We are now beginning to see a slowly improving situation with our weather, however it does not look like it will completely settle down any time soon, more of an improving signal from atrocious conditions to something approaching normal Irish summer weather. This improving scene may only last a week before we go back to a very unsettled scene once again.

For now we have seen an end to the daily 12+ hour rain events which have frequently brought very wet conditions, particularly to some northern, north-western and eastern areas since the last week of June and the first week of July.

This weekend will be much dryer than of late and temperatures will improve a bit too. A ridge from the Azores tries to get going over Ireland this weekend on Saturday and into Sunday.

Temperatures generally 16 to 21C away from the north-west where it will remain slightly cooler with showery bits of rain or drizzle at times over the weekend, temperatures there about 13 or 14C but rain shouldn't be anywhere nearly as heavy as recent times.



Monday could be quite warm in the east and south with temperatures up to 21 or 22C in places, particularly if there are decent spells of sunshine. It will be cooler and more cloudy towards the west and north with showery rain at times as low pressure from the north-west introduces much fresher conditions there.

midweek by Tuesday we may start to lose influence from that azores ridge and it begins to push back into the middle of the Atlantic and the flat westerly continues over us with a cool and possibly showery airflow. Over the next few days it will remain cool with showery outbreaks of rain particularly in western and northern areas with the south and east staying dryer and warmer generally, but showers can break out just about anywhere. Temperatures midweek generally in the 14 to 18C range with perhaps low 20's still possible in some eastern and southern areas if there are decent sunny breaks, otherwise high teens most likely there.



Next Weekend: By next weekend there is a trend towards things turning much more unsettled once again with proper northern blocking likely to get going over Greenland. This may start to send a series of low pressures or dartboard lows our way from the very Northern parts of the Atlantic introducing possibly cooler and wetter conditions.



Next week looks very unsettled and quite cool too with winds possibly going into the north and pulling down showery outbreaks of rain and temperatures back to the low to mid teens once again. The GFS looks particularly grim from next weekend with the jet stream heading back south again with plenty of unsettled and cool and autumnal conditions. However that is all a week away so fingers crossed the GFS is overplaying it.





Overall the next week is an improvement with some light showery rain possible in the west and north at times and dryer elsewhere. Temperatures should get to the high teens at times over the next week, maybe touching 20C or 21C in spells of sunshine. It won't be completely dry as showers or drizzly rain can happen anywhere, but gone are the day long deluges of recent weeks. The next week may be a good time to try and get some gardening done and the lawns cut to take advantage of any dry and sunny weather that gets going. This is not BBQ/garden beers weather, just average Irish summer weather.

We do appear to go back to a cool and unsettled theme with plenty of rain from next weekend and into the following week. Depending on how aggressive the northern blocking becomes, it could provide us with a very cool and unsettled end of July and beginning to August, but for now that remains to be seen.

even since I made this afternoon's post it's trending more unsettled and cooler. That recent ECM has now fallen in line with the very cool and unsettled GFS, not good at all.

I think the highest temperature we have seen this July is 20C. The way this July is heading we will be lucky to see anywhere in the country reach 22 or 23C.

The past 2 to 3 weeks have easily been the coldest temperature anomaly we've had since 1st of January 2020. Up to this month, the year has basically been warmer than average every month. July looks like it is already well on it's way to being a cooler or significantly cooler than average month. Temperatures in Dunsany are not far off 2C below the monthly average. If the outlook of the next 2 weeks verifies, we are going to need one hell of a scotching final week of July to turn that anomaly around.

I still think the warmer conditions from Wednesday, particularly next weekend is still on a knife edge. The GEM has backed off yesterday's very hot run however it still get's the high here but just more sensible temperatures. The GFS does get it very warm next weekend then it quickly cools down from Sunday evening or Monday afternoon.

It wouldn't take much of an adjustment to drag that low pressure between us and Iceland a bit closer and we would end up with much cooler and unsettled conditions. I think this one will have a few downgrades and upgrades before we know for sure what will happen after Wednesday, but fingers crossed this works out in our favour and we get some real heat, even if it's just for 1 or 2 days.

At least the next week is guaranteed to be significantly dryer than the week just gone, particularly eastern areas can now start to dry out after over a week of deluges.

nacho libre wrote: »

It seems we are stuck in this pattern of a ridge giving us a couple of settled days before fronts move again. I suppose it has to change at some stage, lets hope it happens before September.

The European long range model does offer some hope after the first week of August

The long range models have performed well for most of the year but they have been well off the mark this July as they were showing a big improvement for July up to very recently and still hinting at a dryer August and Autumn. The short range models have correctly modeled an unsettled scene since the middle of June and there is no sign of any break in this pattern from the shorter range models.

After a few dry and bright days big changes are on the way to something much more unsettled. It is looking particularly wet and cool next week and we may end July on a very wet note.

Start of August looks more of the same, staying on the wet and cool side with no real sign of any warmth or dry spells for the foreseeable future. Temperatures between 1 and 2 degree's below average for the next 7 to 10 days. We may see things drying out a bit as we head into the 1st week of August, but still looks remaining mixed with temperatures remaining below average into the 1st and possibly second week of August.

Latest GFS ensembles look generally cool and wet with no shortage of rainfall.



Charts generally look unsettled most days including the bank holiday weekend.



Plenty of rain over the next 7 days with up to 60mm in places with all areas of the country seeing bands of rain at times and frequent showers, looks a bit dryer towards the south with less in the way of rainfall compared to the northern half of the country.



Temperatures generally between 12 and 20C over the next 14 days with best chance of high teens across the south and east during dry and sunny interludes.

ECM keeps it cool and unsettled too particularly the final week of July into the first few days of August.





It's not just Ireland that will have cool and unsettled weather, this cool and unsettled remains for the UK, northern Germany and much of Scandinavia as well.