Breaky Bitcoin Blues

StinkyMunkey · 13-09-2018 8:33pm

No doubt this thread will become dormant at some stage. I wonder how long before the arse falls out of this bitcoin craze and people pop back in the say "told you so".

To flog the same horse again. With a pyramid scheme, because people invest at the start, there are assets to produce a return. But by the end, the vanguard have left with all the spoils. Meaning the poor bastards investing towards the end are hoping for a return to materlise out of thin air.

So why is a the bitcoin craze different? Granted it's infinitely more complicated, but the principle seems the same! Am I missing something?

I'll admit I'm not the sharpest tool in the box, but bitcoin just screams scam to me..............

Samsong · 13-09-2018 8:37pm

StinkyMunkey wrote: »

No doubt this thread will become dormant at some stage. I wonder how long before the arse falls out of this bitcoin craze and people pop back in the say "told you so".

To flog the same horse again. With a pyramid scheme, because people invest at the start, there are assets to produce a return. But by the end, the vanguard have left with all the spoils. Meaning the poor bastards investing towards the end are hoping for a return to materlise out of thin air.

So why is a the bitcoin craze different? Granted it's infinitely more complicated, but the principle seems the same! Am I missing something?

I'll admit I'm not the sharpest tool in the box, but bitcoin just screams scam to me..............

I will send you a message in 5 years from today.
Buy vechain now. You can thank me then

badtoro · 13-09-2018 9:23pm

I've dabbled a little. Admittedly if I'd sold up a few months ago I'd have made something like 5x profits..... But I didn't. The way I must look at it now is either I sell now and realise a loss, or hope (yup, solid strategy right there) the situation improves.

My experience is that I've never encountered a sphere filled with so many scammers, liars, and drama queens. It's almost been worth it for the entertainment over a couple of months period in particular with one French scammer from Canada and his discord.

The wisest piece of advice is don't invest in crypto. The second wisest piece of advice is don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

Why? Just look at what happened (I haven't checked recently) to WaltonChain when they outed themselves scamming a prize draw. Or their cluste**** Alibaba partnership that wasn't announcement. Or Mt Gox aftermath. Or, or, or..... Hyper volatility does indeed lead to hyper profits - huge if you're in the right place at the right time. The reality is more likely you'll get hyper ****ed.

I invested, that's my opinion, I've earned it.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 10:04pm

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-mutual-fund-launches-in-canada/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

It's happening.

smurgen · 13-09-2018 10:11pm

I knew it was a pyramid scheme when very intelligent lads in work who were up to up to their eyes in it could explain to me the concept properly. As a general rule of thumb i don't invest in what i don't understand.

Capt'n Midnight · 13-09-2018 10:13pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

That link doesn’t work. Again, what is a smart NFC tag, and how does it work in verifying that a bottle of wine isn’t counterfeit? Mapping physical objects into a digital world is difficult. This is yet another example of applying the word blockchain to an end-point solution that doesn’t need it, raising hundreds of millions based on hot air, hype, and hysteria, then leaving a load of bag holders at the end.

NFC is what's used in Passports and Contactless Credit and Debt Cards and Leap cards and the old yellow paper 10 journey Dublin bus tickets.

So everything from International Security and money to very low cost and disposable.

It means that an app on your phone can talk to the wine bottle. If you trust the app and trust the wine manufacturer and the entire supply chain then you can be sure they are saying they intended to put legit wine in the bottle.

If the app says the wind is fake then it probably is. But it would do nothing to prevent an Austrian Anti-Freeze scandal. Or someone hacking into the system if there's a backdoor.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 10:13pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/irish-blockchain-body-for-women-aims-to-build-awareness-of-technology-1.3626821

Capt'n Midnight · 13-09-2018 10:23pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

What sort of bitcoin adoption is growing in Asia? Buying it, holding it, spending it etc? Any opinion on the energy it uses?

What % of bitcoing trading is used for evading tax or foreign exchange controls ?

JJJJNR wrote: »

What about diamonds.

De Beers are now openly selling synthetic diamonds.

They've been making then down in Shannon for ages.

JJJJNR · 13-09-2018 10:24pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-09-13/morgan-stanley-said-to-prepare-bitcoin-swap-trading-for-clients

valoren · 13-09-2018 10:30pm

Samsong wrote: »

I will send you a message in 5 years from today.
Buy vechain now. You can thank me then

https://giphy.com/gifs/javier-mascherano-mKHqYw83SCa08

Aongus Von Bismarck · 14-09-2018 12:33am

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Before the great Wall Street crash on 1929 one investor realised it was time to sell up when the shoe-shine boy on the way to work gave him share tips while shining his shoes.

Funny you should mention this. It was a very similar situation which led me to offload the crypto I had in November.

A particularly grungy looking IT worker in our place was in my office installing a new dual monitor for me. A very unkempt member of staff who wouldn't be known for his great wit or mental prowess. You know the type, in to metal music, greasy goatee, hobbies include flying drones and uploading the footage to YouTube. Anyway, I saw he was checking the price of bitcoin. I was quite taken aback as I reckoned the last time this chap had been involved in finance was when he was collecting the German equivalent of Sammy squirrel saving stamps.

He told me how he was going to get out of this "rat race", how he was now a crypto day trader, how his coins were going to moon and he was going to be driving a lambo. The idiot actually tried to mock Herr Bismarcks beamer as being below him.

It was at that moment I decided to immediately sell me bitcoin. I've outlined in my last post what I spent my modest profit on.

Needless to say, Torben, the slouched shouldered IT grunt still scrambles under my desk to fix the cables or whatever it is those IT gargoyles do for a living.

dotsman · 14-09-2018 2:11am

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

It was at that moment I decided to immediately sell me bitcoin.

Oh no, Aongus!

Please tell me you haven't accidentally revealed your true self to be an uncouth, uneducated, lower class bogger!!!:eek::eek::eek:

who what when · 14-09-2018 8:38am

dotsman wrote: »

Oh no, Aongus!

Please tell me you haven't accidentally revealed your true self to be an uncouth, uneducated, lower class bogger!!!:eek::eek::eek:

Complete with bootcut jeans and red face!

Irish Kings · 14-09-2018 8:40am

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

The idiot actually tried to mock Herr Bismarcks beamer as being below him.

I'm not surprised they are as common as a Dacia in Germany.

JJJJNR · 14-09-2018 9:34am

Aongus Von Bismarck wrote: »

The idiot actually tried to mock Herr Bismarcks beamer as being below him.

.

how many depreciating assets are you sitting on now, paintings, holiday homes, beemers,

Nice guy

xi5yvm0owc1s2b · 14-09-2018 9:43am

seamus wrote: »

Inflation-adjusted, it's 5-10% down on September 2013 and hasn't been recovering in any way in that time, just slowly trickling downward.

I don't think you know what you're talking about when you claim that the value of gold "hasn't been recovering in any way" in the past five years. Between December 2015 and July 2016, the price of gold rose from $1,069 to $1,360, which is a 27% increase. Something that goes up 27% in seven months isn't "slowly trickling downward."

The price of gold was also higher in April 2018 than it was in September 2013.

This is just a correction on the major gold bubble that existed in the wake of the financial crisis.

The major correction in gold prices happened between September 2012 and July 2013. Not over the past five years.

JohnnyFlash · 14-09-2018 3:22pm

http://pngicentral.org/reports/govt-to-cede-sovereignty-in-cryptocurrency-gamble

Yet more news from the bizarre world of cryptocurrencies. The desperate Government of Papua New Guinea have decided to create a Special Economic Zone in the country/ This will be governed, managed and operated by a US crypto start-up. They will have the authority to issue passports, try people before courts, and basically operate as a semi-autonomous country.

The company is called Ledger Atlas, with the atlas being a nod to one of the unreadable works of libertarian oddball, Ayn Rand. The links between crypto and libertarian extremism are well documented.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Politics-Bitcoin-Right-Wing-Extremism-Forerunners/dp/1517901804

I’m conflicted here. We should be appalled, if not surprised , that this is taking place. These repugnant and morally vacuous crypto vultures swooped in on Puerto Rico following the hurricane, and attempted to establish some sort of crypto haven for the criminals and chancers who made money during the bubble. Thankfully the people of PR have started to recognise that nothing good can come from having these creeps on their island. Venezuela is also overran with them. But it would be good for humanity if all these libertarians decided to move to PNG and operate their own little individualist John Galt style ‘paradise’.

The J Stands for Jay · 14-09-2018 6:44pm

RIGOLO wrote: »

And if you believe all of that , then you probably havent been paying attention to the financial markets for the short but brief history of this millenium ....

In 2003, I started investing. In 2008, I needed somewhere to live, so I cashed in and my profits helped towards a deposit on an apartment. I suffered a bit with the fall in value of the apartment, but that was ok, I was living in it.

I started investing again on 2009. I needed a bigger place, and in 2016 cashed in and again the investing profits helped out with a deposit on a house.

Not sure how my experience of this millenium's markets ties in with your statement.

RIGOLO · 15-09-2018 3:37pm

McGaggs wrote: »

RIGOLO wrote: »

And if you believe all of that , then you probably havent been paying attention to the financial markets for the short but brief history of this millenium ....

In 2003, I started investing. In 2008, I needed somewhere to live, so I cashed in and my profits helped towards a deposit on an apartment. I suffered a bit with the fall in value of the apartment, but that was ok, I was living in it.

I started investing again on 2009. I needed a bigger place, and in 2016 cashed in and again the investing profits helped out with a deposit on a house.

Not sure how my experience of this millenium's markets ties in with your statement.

Im not sure how your post , ties into my statement...

15-09-2018 6:45pm

Its gonna worth loads. I know which yacht I'm gonna be buying.

https://www.ccn.com/crypto-market-cap-to-hit-80-trillion-in-15-years-bitcoin-bull-tim-draper/?utm_source=hodler

JohnnyFlash · 17-09-2018 10:16pm

Bad news emerging in the world of crypto today. Proof of work just isn’t working. Morally repugnant as well.

Woke Hogan · 18-09-2018 3:29pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Bad news emerging in the world of crypto today. Proof of work just isn’t working. Morally repugnant as well.

What are you referring to?

seamus · 20-11-2018 11:24am

Bitcoin (in fact all coins) on a sharp downward slide since last week, heaviest losses started over the weekend and are still dropping.

If you bought into Bitcoin in the last 12 months, you are now running at a loss.

What's worse is that nobody really knows why.

Sell now, get out while you can.

kerplun k · 20-11-2018 11:26am

seamus wrote: »

Bitcoin (in fact all coins) on a sharp downward slide since last week, heaviest losses started over the weekend and are still dropping.

If you bought into Bitcoin in the last 12 months, you are now running at a loss.

What's worse is that nobody really knows why.

Sell now, get out while you can.

Eh, yeah they do. Hash Wars

Bob Harris · 20-11-2018 11:27am

seamus wrote: »

Bitcoin (in fact all coins) on a sharp downward slide since last week, heaviest losses started over the weekend and are still dropping.

If you bought into Bitcoin in the last 12 months, you are now running at a loss.

What's worse is that nobody really knows why.

Sell now, get out while you can.

Crazy talk...buy the dip!

Feisar · 20-11-2018 11:43am

Trasna1 wrote: »

For most of history gold had SFA utility, it became a store of value because it was rare, non degrading and impossible to counterfeit. It's only relatively recently that gold had gotten some industrial uses, and it's not industrial uses that drive gold prices.

The value of something is down entirely to the value people place on it, whether that be a stock, crypto coin, gold or painting.

Nothing is intrinsically valuable

Water, food and shelter are valuable, beyond that you are right, it's all in our heads.

Moonjet · 20-11-2018 11:51am

seamus wrote: »

Sell now, get out while you can.

People were saying the same thing when the price crashed 80% from $1,000 in 2013 to lows of $200 in 2015. Locking in losses is one sure fire way to go broke.

JohnnyFlash · 20-11-2018 12:04pm

Capitulation over the past few days. Lots of desperate bag holders trying to sell their coins but no one willing to buy them. Mining is profitable for no one at these prices.

The price of bitcoin and other currencies will continue to collapse toward their true value - 0.

It’s a complete shîtshow. Using more electricity than the island of Ireland just so lads can gamble on the price of records in a really slow database. Movies will be made about this madness

Moonjet · 20-11-2018 12:09pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Capitulation over the past few days. Lots of desperate bag holders trying to sell their coins but no one willing to buy them. Mining is profitable for no one at these prices.

The price of bitcoin and other currencies will continue to collapse toward their true value - 0.

It’s a complete shîtshow. Using more electricity than the island of Ireland just so lads can gamble on the price of records in a really slow database. Movies will be made about this madness

I agree that the price of cryptocurrencies is heavily driven by speculation and people trying to get rich quick, but to see absolutely no value or future in the blockchain/proof of work technology (and even a deflationary currency model) is plain ignorance on the subject. If you want to see a real '****show', research what's going on with Venezuela's currency at the moment.

seamus · 20-11-2018 12:37pm

Moonjet wrote: »

People were saying the same thing when the price crashed 80% from $1,000 in 2013 to lows of $200 in 2015. Locking in losses is one sure fire way to go broke.

Yeah, that was a different environment though. Cryptocurrency was quite unknown outside the dark web and cutting edge tech communities. Its value was driven by criminal use rather than speculation, and the FBI gaining the upper hand on the dark web played a significant part in its utility being undermined. Hence the drop in price.

BTC still had potential as a currency at that point.

Nvidia have seen a large correction in their share price because the value of mining BTC is outstripping the cost of the hardware and the electricity to do it. Mining BTC will never get cheaper.

BTC is dead. It has no future.

Other cryptocurrencies have taken a hit because speculators are mostly idiots who don't understand what they're buying, so in their minds, if BTC is dying, then all crypto must be bust.

This is not ture, but the ability of currencies to hard fork and effectively double supply at the drop of a hat, is not a good thing for crypto's long-term viability.

The concept is still in such flux and infancy at the moment that pouring any serious amount of investment into it will get you burned in the long run.

valoren · 20-11-2018 12:59pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Capitulation over the past few days. Lots of desperate bag holders trying to sell their coins but no one willing to buy them. Mining is profitable for no one at these prices.

The price of bitcoin and other currencies will continue to collapse toward their true value - 0.

It’s a complete shîtshow. Using more electricity than the island of Ireland just so lads can gamble on the price of records in a really slow database. Movies will be made about this madness

Now that's what you call investing!

BeerWolf · 20-11-2018 1:04pm

I used to have a fair amount of bitcoins way back when they were worthless...

Had I kept them it'd have been worth €3+million...

Such is life.

*Cries in a corner*

two wheels good · 20-11-2018 1:31pm

If the pointless and excessive energy consumption of mining is reduced that will be a welcome benefit.

grindle · 20-11-2018 1:45pm

kerplun k wrote: »

Eh, yeah they do. Hash Wars

CorREKT.

This is what happens when hundreds of millions of dollars are needed to keep forked chains afloat. This is the most fun I've had all year, the despair is hilarious!

Standman · 20-11-2018 2:56pm

Need advice guys - if I spent €40k on bitcoin last week, how much would it be worth now? The wife is concerned.

20-11-2018 3:29pm

seamus wrote: »

Bitcoin (in fact all coins) on a sharp downward slide since last week, heaviest losses started over the weekend and are still dropping.

If you bought into Bitcoin in the last 12 months, you are now running at a loss.

What's worse is that nobody really knows why.

Sell now, get out while you can.

Sell and realise a load of losses? No thanks. Much rather ride it out and wait for the recovery no matter how long it takes.

grindle · 20-11-2018 3:31pm

Standman wrote: »

Need advice guys - if I spent €40k on bitcoin last week, how much would it be worth now? The wife is concerned.

That depends on day, hour, minute, second...
Presuming you bought while it was ~$6300 that'd give you about 7.25BTC. Must've been a fair price to you at the time to spend €40k on it!
You're in luck! This week that 7.25BTC is still worth 7.25BTC.

grindle · 20-11-2018 3:33pm

Donovan Shapely Adventurer wrote: »

Sell and realise a load of losses? No thanks. Much rather ride it out and wait for the recovery no matter how long it takes.

If the spread is good you can solidify a hefty fiat loss to use against any possible gains. Would recommend doing this.

kerplun k · 20-11-2018 3:42pm

Em, your wife is probably right to be bit worried.
I'm not qualified to give advice, but here is what I would do.

You bought at around €5.5k, and it’s now worth about €3.8k, so you've just lost about 30% of your investment, which is about 12k. Welcome to the world of crypto.

One thing I am sure off, if you wait long enough, the value will bounce back to the same point you entered. The big question is when...
Estimates are putting the current drama to run as late as Q2 2019. If you’re in no big rush, I'd wait it out, and take your money back immediately when you reach your point of entry, and never invest in any crypto again.

If you need the money back now, I'd give it another couple of days and buy back either now, or at something a bit nearer to 5k (this may not even happen, and might go even lower), accept the hit, and same as advice as above, never invest in crypo again. Take your money, and go speak to a financial adviser, let a professional handle your investment.

I hope you’re okay, because that is a lot of money to invest.

EDIT
Sorry, I messed up some calculations in my earlier post.

seamus · 20-11-2018 3:44pm

Donovan Shapely Adventurer wrote: »

Sell and realise a load of losses? No thanks. Much rather ride it out and wait for the recovery no matter how long it takes.

BTC is not going to recover. It will revert to its historical normal value, i.e. zero.

IK09 · 20-11-2018 3:47pm

im up about 700%

JohnnyFlash · 20-11-2018 3:55pm

Donovan Shapely Adventurer wrote: »

Sell and realise a load of losses? No thanks. Much rather ride it out and wait for the recovery no matter how long it takes.

Classic sink-cost fallacy and the escalation of commitment principal. The alt-coins are dead. Useless scams designed to extract money from people who thought this get rich scheme was different than all the other get rich quick schemes.

Bitcoin might take a bit longer to die because some of the nutters who believe in it actually believe in it. They don’t care about the environmental impact, how it doesn’t scale, how it’s deeply centralised and controlled by a few early sorts who took on all the reward and none of the risk.

The only value of this whole period is as a psychological test bed with real life experiments into greed, stupidity, and ego.

kerplun k · 20-11-2018 3:56pm

seamus wrote: »

BTC is not going to recover. It will revert to its historical normal value, i.e. zero.

That's a very bold statement to say BTC will never recover from this, of course it will. I've set a reminder to poke you when it hits 5.5 again. :pac:

Alun · 20-11-2018 4:01pm

Anyone want to buy any tulip bulbs? I hear they're the next "big thing".

Woke Hogan · 20-11-2018 4:01pm

kerplun k wrote: »

One thing I am sure off, if you wait long enough, the value will bounce back to the same point you entered. The big question is when....

This is very dangerous advice.

seamus · 20-11-2018 4:04pm

kerplun k wrote: »

That's a very bold statement to say BTC will never recover from this, of course it will. I've set a reminder to poke you when it hits 5.5 again. :pac:

5.5 is a very soft target. It could bounce up to that (and back down again) next week.

Nevertheless, I'm pretty confident you'll never receive that reminder.

In 2025 there'll be a thread entitled, "Who remembers Bitcoin? Did you make any money out of it?"

Moonjet · 20-11-2018 4:23pm

seamus wrote: »

BTC is not going to recover. It will revert to its historical normal value, i.e. zero.

If you're so sure, why don't you short it on margin and make a huge profit from your knowledge? Or futures if you want to play the long game.

JohnnyFlash · 20-11-2018 4:31pm

Moonjet wrote: »

If you're so sure, why don't you short it on margin and make a huge profit from your knowledge? Or futures if you want to play the long game.

Playing the long and short game in a market as rigged as bitcoin? Nah. Fake Tether dollars, Bitmex closing positions on their customers using their own trading bots, wash trading, spoof orders, insider trading. It’s an unregulated mess. It’s gambling really. For mugs.

Moonjet · 20-11-2018 4:39pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Playing the long and short game in a market as rigged as bitcoin? Nah. Fake Tether dollars, Bitmex closing positions on their customers using their own trading bots, wash trading, spoof orders, insider trading. It’s an unregulated mess. It’s gambling really. For mugs.

I agree but the poster seems certain that bitcoin price will fall to $0 by 2025.

If I had that knowledge I would make a huge profit from it, pay off the mortgage and retire.

20-11-2018 4:49pm

Moonjet wrote: »

I agree but the poster seems certain that bitcoin price will fall to $0 by 2025.

If I had that knowledge I would make a huge profit from it, pay off the mortgage and retire.

You think you sound smart but you don't. Someone being sure that bitcoin won't worth anything in a decade is very different to shorting an extremely volatile asset where you could get squeezed.

We get that you're a fanboy. No need to act like a pathetic one while you're at it.

Breaky Bitcoin Blues

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