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Strong winds will develop late Wednesday 18th

  • 17-11-2020 8:22am
    #1
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭


    There's fairly broad model consensus that strong winds (west to northwest) will develop especially near Atlantic coasts and across most of Ulster late Wednesday, with potential for gusts to 120 km/hr. For now I have given this a Level 1 tag but expect it may be a level 2 (orange alert) event in a few places, notably Galway, Mayo, and Donegal. There is a polar low type of feature embedded in the flow moving southeast across western Scotland tomorrow night and strong winds could briefly appear in central and eastern counties as it drops towards the north Irish Sea.

    Having started this off, I won't be around much until this evening now, so over to you weather forum ...


«1

Comments

  • #2
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    00z ECM & GFS very similar

    Nothing too dramatic, Level 1 / yellow seems about right.

    eacdfc8b4b0870c3f95d76177efb5996.png

    b31d8b087c6552587cf1f4539100e728.png


  • #3
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Southwest to west winds veering northwest will reach mean speed 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/h.

    The combination of strong winds coupled with high tides brings an increased risk of coastal flooding.

    Valid: 15:00 Wednesday 18/11/2020 to 01:00 Thursday 19/11/2020

    Issued: 09:00 Tuesday 17/11/2020


  • #4
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,234 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Gerry Murphy just there making a big deal of it, emphasized "very strong gusts" a few times.

    Maybe Harmonie showing something ECM isn't.

    (Totally OT, but am almost embarrassed to admit RTE was even on in the background.. last time I looked at the TV was lunchtime. This work from home is now having undesired side effects- Daithi O Sé and his pal would bore the pants off even the most dedicated septuagenarian housewife. Traumatic.)


  • #5
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,509 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Gerry ramping ?? Surely that can't be good :)


  • #6
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Gerry Murphy just there making a big deal of it, emphasized "very strong gusts" a few times.

    Maybe Harmonie showing something ECM isn't.

    (Totally OT, but am almost embarrassed to admit RTE was even on in the background.. last time I looked at the TV was lunchtime. This work from home is now having undesired side effects- Daithi O Sé and his pal would bore the pants off even the most dedicated septuagenarian housewife. Traumatic.)

    Throw it over to Virgin for the Judge Judy doubleheader. It's the only way to get through those late afternoon just-switched-off-the-laptop hours. Something to dumb down the brain a bit.


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  • #7
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Arome 18Z showing a strong sweep of W N/W winds running across the country for a time tomorrow night gusting up around 80 to 90 km/h. It is showing strongest winds in the W ,100 to 110 km/h, and later very strong winds channeling down the North Channel early Thurs morning.

    ECM and ICON showing strong winds further down along the W coast as far as Kerry gusting 100 km/h and up to 110 km/h on exposed headlands would think.

    ECM showing strong onshore winds ( 80 to 100 km/h ) penetrating inland for a time from Mayo down to Kerry.

    New colder airmass, feeling very cold tomorrow evening with the Windchill. Heavy showers, some of hail possible more so in the W, NW

    Looks like a fairy rough evening.

    The W looks like high end Yellow, will it go Orange for Mayo?? Sligo might also be included to yellow, in fact the central counties might need to be added to yellow warning also just for a few hours tomorrow night.


    anim_ubu1.gif

    anim_squ0.gif


    anim_gjh4.gif

    arpegeuk-43-27-0_sqp4.png


  • #8
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tight isobars of the W coast tomorrow evening.


    1Ygi1Le.gif

    Edu3821.gif


  • #9
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Definitely a dangerous stormy period in Sligo tomorrow night. Probably gusting to 100 or 110. But 120 plus causes all sorts of chaos here so there might be a few branches about Thursday morning.


  • #10
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gusty out here already. One of my cats got literally blown the length of the path in a sudden gust yesterday afternoon.

    And the wild noise the last two nights has been intense. But all normal in these winter months.

    All battened down and fuel etc well stocked inside. .

    Not yet seen here a gale to equal those in Orkney! Callum was the nearest.

    PS cat is fine! But a new experience for both of us .

    west mayo offshore


  • #11
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    No great change in the charts today, a tad lighter in general , nothing too severe showing up, strong winds along Atlantic coasts, unless there is a big shift there seems to be no chance of any county going Orange warning level at this stage. Stronger winds cross the country quickly tonight.




    aromehd-52-26-0_olj3.png

    arpegeuk-52-26-0_glu5.png

    euro4_uk1-52-25-0_mmh8.png


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  • #12
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    AROME 06Z has eased off the strongest winds

    anim_thz1.gif

    aromehd-52-20-0_jgh7.png


  • #13
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    App on phone quite good at these storms and it says 90 to 100kph gusts top now.

    Was 110 last night.


  • #14
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Nothing to severe on Sligo TAF, a chance of gusts up to 50 knots between 8pm & 9pm

    TAF EISG 181100Z 1812/1821 23015KT 9999 SCT040
    BECMG 1812/1814 22020G30KT
    PROB40 TEMPO 1815/1820 4000 SHRA BKN012 SCT018CB
    BECMG 1818/1820 30025G35KT
    PROB40 TEMPO 1820/1821 31030G50KT


  • #15
    Discodog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,916 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Very strong squally gusts accompanying the showers. Getting stronger with each shower.

    North Galway


  • #16
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    wind picking up noticeably in cork.


  • #17
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    It is more sustained than gusty here now, and it has gone very dark.

    When last I looked. the ocean was fascinating in the unusual pattern of ripples and breakers. It may just have been the state of the lower tide.

    West Mayo offshore


  • #18
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    4pm
    Mace head gusting 52 knots(96 km/h).


  • #19
    corsav6
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    A few surprising gusts here outside Newport, Mayo. Hopefully it's not like this all evening.


  • #20
    Storm 10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Picking up in Galway some strong gusts


  • #21
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    5pm
    Mace head gust 55 knots (102km/h)


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  • #22
    Storm 10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Fierce windy in Galway good job its a North Westerly or Salthiil would be under water as the tides are very high


  • #23
    Aquals
    Registered Users Posts: 243 ✭✭Aquals


    Not a breath of wind in Cork at the moment - is that it for the evening?


  • #24
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Aquals wrote: »
    Not a breath of wind in Cork at the moment - is that it for the evening?

    In Cork, yes.


  • #25
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Aquals wrote: »
    Not a breath of wind in Cork at the moment - is that it for the evening?

    met ie says until 1 am . The same as here. Just had a short pause here too.


  • #26
    thecivvie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,060 ✭✭✭thecivvie


    83 km/h gust about an hour ago in west Connemara

    Join Ireland Weather Network

    http://irelandweather.eu/index.php




  • #27
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    thecivvie wrote: »
    83 km/h gust about an hour ago in west Connemara

    Ouch! I would hate to be out in this for more than a minute. The light keeps flickering too...


  • #28
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    102kph Mace Hd 6pm also


  • #29
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Been windy all day here near the coast in Kerry, blustery in the showers, wind getting stronger now but think we will be well out of the strongest winds, gusting just over 60 km/h here atm.


    rafales_uk_jlh5.png


  • #30
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    An increase in activity and volume out here. Lights still holding. Coastal waters warning up to Force 9 . For much of the night ahead.

    And the dwelling just started shaking . HATE that! lol... ie gale building up.

    west mayo offshore.


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  • #31
    Hooter23
    Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    They need to mention wind chill more in the forecast...it might be around 8 degrees outside but feels more like 0 degrees with the wind...and how it feels is much more important than the actual temperature when you are out in it...


  • #32
    thecivvie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,060 ✭✭✭thecivvie


    Graces7 wrote: »
    Ouch! I would hate to be out in this for more than a minute. The light keeps flickering too...

    And I am in a dip so sheltered :eek:

    Join Ireland Weather Network

    http://irelandweather.eu/index.php




  • #33
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Aviation warning of a big pressure variation throughout Shannon airspace north of 5315N between 4 and 10 pm.
    EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 181600/182200 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 0999 HPA AND 1025 HPA IN SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N of N5315 FCST=


  • #34
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Aviation warning of a big pressure variation throughout Shannon airspace north of 5315N between 4 and 10 pm.

    That is interesting. does it endanger aircraft? ( Ignorant if these things but happy to learn from an expert..)


  • #35
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    WIld the wind and raucous... battering and shattering. Just.. normal gale.. a quieter moment then GROWL!

    West to North West.. . a long night in progress.


  • #36
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    8pm
    Mace head gusting 53 knots(98 km/h)
    Newport 52 knots (96 km/h)


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  • #37
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Easing off now
    9pm
    Newport gusting 54 knots
    Mace head 50 knots.


    A very rapid rise in pressure,Belmullet going from 1003hpa @ 6pm to 1014 hpa at 9pm!


  • #38
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Very rough now in Donegal


  • #39
    thecivvie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,060 ✭✭✭thecivvie


    Easing off now in West Connemara . Last gust was 24km/h

    Join Ireland Weather Network

    http://irelandweather.eu/index.php




  • #40
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Graces7 wrote: »
    That is interesting. does it endanger aircraft? ( Ignorant if these things but happy to learn from an expert..)

    It would affect an aircraft's actual altitude above obstacles. If flying from high pressure to low, your actual altitude is decreasing despite your altimeter reading the same. If not careful, you could inadvertently fly into an obstacle which would have been well below your altitude when you were in the higher pressure zone. Every hPa is a difference of around 27 feet, so that difference of 26 hPa means you'd be flying 700 ft lower in 999 hPa than you would in 1025 hPa.

    The saying goes "Flying from high to low, watch out below".


  • #41
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,845 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Unbelievably strong gusts in north Kildare at the moment.

    Can’t believe how strong it is against our gable wall


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  • #42
    leinad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79 ✭✭leinad


    Yeah very wild in Rathdrum in Wicklow


  • #43
    boombang
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭boombang


    Loud in Dún Laoghaire, but far from the worst this year.


  • #44
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 54,087 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Pretty strong gusts here in Wicklow, had to run out and secure the child's play house as it was starting to move down the garden.


  • #45
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Waterford has it's wind shield up

    river?version=5270776&width=230


  • #46
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    It would affect an aircraft's actual altitude above obstacles. If flying from high pressure to low, your actual altitude is decreasing despite your altimeter reading the same. If not careful, you could inadvertently fly into an obstacle which would have been well below your altitude when you were in the higher pressure zone. Every hPa is a difference of around 27 feet, so that difference of 26 hPa means you'd be flying 700 ft lower in 999 hPa than you would in 1025 hPa.

    The saying goes "Flying from high to low, watch out below".

    Thank you. Such skills needed up there. Deeply awed!


  • #47
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Easing pleasurably.

    This is the third gale/wind -loud night in a row here.
    N./NW sounds quite different from S/Sw.


    west mayo offshore


  • #48
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Had to travel to the office in Dublin earlier in the evening. Left around 23:00. Was breezy but nothing out of the ordinary. Got back home to North Kildare about half an hour later. Wind a little stronger as I am exposed to a westerly (sheltered from most directions bar anything with "west" in it). Was windy but certainly not a gale. I'd say gusts were up to force 8 with the odd one up to force 9. Winds have eased off a good bit now. Mean speeds would be at higher end of strong breeze with gusts generally around near gale force, the odd one maybe touching gale force 8.

    My nearest weather station is Dunsany (Meath) and average winds for the 00:00 report were force 5 with gusts of force 7 (high end of). It's fairly sheltered there so looking at the 01:00 reports at Dublin Airport (where it's very exposed) the average winds were touching force 7 with gusts at the high end of force 8. This Dublin report would be fairly similar to the conditions at my north Kildare location around the same time.

    In short, it's a fairly typical windy late autumn strong Atlantic low scenario but the lack of stronger than average winds for the past could make it seem stronger than it is for some people.
    Case in point: Across the whole country there are currently 6 ESB breakdowns showing up on the ESB Power Check website with about 400 customers in total affected. If this was an actual storm (with storm force winds), we would have dozens upon dozens of power cuts affecting thousands or tens of thousands of customers.


  • #49
    Pops_20
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Pops_20


    Not a puff of wind all day in Cork City. I was waiting all night for the wind warning only to learn that it was already over.


  • #50
    Graces7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Petering out nicely out here but still snarling strong winds, and a bitter, winter chill biting.

    west mayo offshore


  • #51
    OldRio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,142 ✭✭✭OldRio


    We lost electricity in the area at about 2130hrs for 20mins. Very Windy evening indeed.
    South Leitrim.


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