November 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 30-10-2018 6:31am #1

1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS: Predict the strongest wind gust to be observed at the 25 stations (not offshore buoys or lighthouses etc), in knots, and the date that it will be observed. Seven points for the wind speed and three for the date, with second and third highest events counting for two and one point each. To score the points, you will need to be within the closest three forecasts or within one day (either or). A superbonus is available (7+3 gets 2, either 6 + 3 or 7 + 2 gets one superbonus point). Tied dates (e.g., Malin Head 62 knots one day, Mace Head 62 knots a different day) both count for whatever rank, and if 1st, there will be 2nd and 3rd added, if 2nd, then 3rd added (although it would be 4th if you follow my drift).

Points for the dates will be given to at least 15 entrants so I will make it as lenient as it needs to be to get some points distributed.

Deadline for entries, as always, 0300h Thursday November 1st, and late penalties to apply after that time.

Good luck !!

sryanbruen · 30-10-2018 11:34am

sryanbruen _______ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 135 _ 90 _ 52 kts, 7th

Hopefully reverse psychology will work.

sdanseo · 30-10-2018 4:14pm

sdanseo _______ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 88 _ 61 kts, 3rd

Bsal · 30-10-2018 4:48pm

Bsal _______ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 97 _ 68 kts, 7th

200motels · 30-10-2018 9:25pm

200motels

7.8 _ 15.7 _ -3.5 _ 121 _ 92 _ 56 kts, 3rd

Artane2002 · 30-10-2018 9:55pm

This one is going to be really tough!

Artane2002 _______ 7.2 _ 15.9_ -4.5 _ 120 _ 95 _ 60 kts, 7th

sunflower3 · 30-10-2018 11:34pm

Sunflower3 _________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _ -5.1 _ 111 _ 95 _ 52 kts, 3rd Nov

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2018 7:52am

MTC __________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _ --5.5 _ 120 _ 115 __ 70 knots 29th

Normal ________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ --5.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 72 knots (date)*

* for the normal date, there probably is no real difference in frequency from start to middle to end of November for a strong wind event, so Normal will just get one point.

Con Sensus will be stuck with the majority opinion and ride along with that for points.

Will not be that surprised if the IMT starts out quite high at times then falls away steadily after 15th but not seeing too much evidence yet of sustained cold, just perhaps one brief cold snap where the --5.5 might come into play.

adam240610 · 31-10-2018 10:06am

adam240610______7.0_16.1_-5.2_113_105_54kt 3rd Nov

pauldry · 31-10-2018 2:37pm

Pauldry_____7.5_17.8_-5.7_125_101_75kt 30Nov

dasa29 · 31-10-2018 6:16pm

Dasa29 _________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _ 60 kts, 19th Nov

DOCARCH · 31-10-2018 6:43pm

DOCARCH _______ 7.5 _ 16.9 _ -4.3 _ 132 _ 103 __ 63 knots 22nd

BLIZZARD7 · 31-10-2018 7:33pm

BLIZZARD7_______ 6.3_ 14.7 _ -7.7_ 127_ 110__ 73 knots 13th

kindredspirit · 31-10-2018 9:26pm

Kindred_Spirit ___ 7.4 ___ 16.2 ___ -5.2 ___ 125 ___ 98 ___ 61 knots ___ 29th.

waterways · 31-10-2018 9:37pm

waterways ________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _ -6.1 _ 142 _ 92 __ 72 knots 27th

mickger844posts · 31-10-2018 10:24pm

mickger844posts _______ 7.7 _ 16.1 _ -4.4 _ 121 _ 93 _ 60 kts, 30th

Joe Public · 31-10-2018 10:52pm

Joe Public __________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -6.2 _ 134 _ 89 __ 64 knots 21st

Tae laidir · 31-10-2018 11:25pm

Tae laidir _______ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ --5.6 _ 128 _ 95 __ 65 knots 24th

mrskinner · 01-11-2018 12:25am

Skinner_____7.1_____17.1_____-5.5_____90_____100______59(03/11)

Jpmarn · 01-11-2018 1:05am

Jpmarn________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _ --5.5 _ 140 _ 90 __ 60 knots 3rd.

JCX BXC · 01-11-2018 8:36am

JCXBXC_______ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _ 58 kts_17th

Didn't get it in on time.....again.

Not that late at least.

(Last minute edit, before the turn of the hour).

Rikand · 01-11-2018 9:22am

Rikand ____ 7.5 ____ 16.5 ____ -5.5 _____ 90 _____ 120 _____ 65 kts, 27th

rameire · 01-11-2018 9:22am

Rameire _______ 7.0 _ 16.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 98 __ 56 kts 20th

dacogawa · 01-11-2018 4:13pm

Dacogawa _______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -6.4 _ 150 _ 95 __ 72 kts 15th

Sorry for the lateness! went all out to try to make up the penalty...

John mac · 01-11-2018 9:46pm

john mac_______ 7.0 _ 15.9 _ -4.7 _ 107 _ 97 _ 65 kts, 25th

no time for Boards this week , forgot all about it

M.T. Cranium · 02-11-2018 12:11am

Table of forecasts for November 2018

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust (kts), date

sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _--4.1 _ 135 _ 090 _____ 52 ______ 7th

200motels ___________7.8 _ 15.7 _--3.5 _ 121 _ 092 _____ 56 ______ 3rd

Tae laidir ____________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _--5.6 _ 128 _ 095 _____ 65 _____ 24th

mickger844posts ______7.7 _ 16.1 _--4.4 _ 121 _ 093 _____ 60 _____ 30th

Pauldry _____________ 7.5 _ 17.8 _--5.7 _ 125 _ 101 _____ 75 _____ 30th

DOCARCH ___________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _--4.3 _ 132 _ 103 _____ 63 _____ 22nd

Rikand ____ (-2) ______7.5 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 65 _____ 27th

Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 7.4 _ 17.9 _--6.4 _ 150 _ 095 _____ 72 _____ 15th

Kindred_Spirit ________7.4 _ 16.2 _--5.2 _ 125 _ 098 _____ 61 _____ 29th

sunflower3 __________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _--5.1 _ 111 _ 095 _____ 52 ______ 3rd

JCXBXC ____ (-2) ____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _--5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 58 _____ 17th

waterways __________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _--6.1 _ 142 _ 092 _____ 72 _____ 27th

Con Sensus _________ 7.3 _ 16.2 _--5.3 _ 121 _ 097 _____ 61 _____ 3, 7, 30**

Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _--5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 72 _____ any*

Artane2002 __________7.2 _ 15.9 _--4.5 _ 120 _ 095 _____ 60 ______ 7th

MrSkinner ___________ 7.1 _ 17.1 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 59 ______ 3rd

Rameire _____ (-2) ___ 7.0 _ 16.5 _--5.8 _ 108 _ 098 _____ 56 _____ 20th

adam240610 _________7.0 _ 16.1 _--5.2 _ 113 _ 105 _____ 54 ______ 3rd

john mac ____ (-6) ___ 7.0 _ 15.9 _--4.7 _ 107 _ 097 ______ 65 _____ 25th

Dasa29 _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _--5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 60 _____ 19th

Bsal ________________7.0 _ 15.5 _--5.0 _ 110 _ 097 _____ 68 ______ 7th

Joe Public ___________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _--6.2 _ 134 _ 089 _____ 64 _____ 21st

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 70 _____ 29th

sdanseo _____________6.8 _ 17.0 _--5.0 _ 115 _ 088 _____ 61 ______ 3rd

Jpmarn _____________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 140 _ 090 _____ 60 ______ 3rd

BLIZZARD7 __________ 6.3 _ 14.7 _--7.7 _ 127 _ 110 _____73 _____ 13th

____________________________________________________________

* for the normal date, there probably is no real difference in frequency from start to middle to end of November for a strong wind event, so Normal will just get one point.

** Con Sensus will be stuck with the majority opinion and ride along with that for points, the three dates indicated will be scored 3, 2 or 1 if within one day, otherwise no points for Con on the date.

The group consensus with all 24 forecasters having checked in, seems to be for an average sort of month temperature and sunshine related, not going to extremes either way, but rather wet, and for November, not awfully windy.

Reality? That could be something entirely different.

Joe Public · 03-11-2018 12:14pm

Got a -5C at Mt. Dillon last night to kick off the month.

M.T. Cranium · 03-11-2018 5:29pm

On 2nd, MIN of --5.0 (Mountdillon), MAX of 14.6 (Newport) and wind gust to 46 knots (Belmullet).

All but the MIN have probably been eclipsed today.

Will count 2nd-3rd as one event in the bonus round, same with any future wind events that span two consecutive days from one system. So if the 2nd turns up in second place overall, that will be ignored and two other events will be counted for scoring purposes.

M.T. Cranium · 04-11-2018 4:05pm

Max wind gust on 3rd only 47 knots (Belmullet also), so wide open now for later guesses.

MAX temp 16.3 at Shannon.

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2018 8:56pm

This is how the maximum gust forecasts break down ... I listed the forecasters for all but the 3rd, if you're not among those listed then you're among the six already holding on to a possible 1-3 points for date (the event underperformed slightly so I'm not sure if it will even make top three).

DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd __ 6 __ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47)

7th __ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7

15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

... so we can continue to keep track of what happens using this template later in the month ...

It makes sense that the forecast speeds tend to increase later in the month since it was generally thought at the time most forecasts were made that something around 50 or higher would occur on the 3rd. On today's 12z GFS run, 6th to 8th (for 7th forecasts) look rather tame, could hit 45 knots, stronger on the 9th (55-60?) which is still closer to 7th than next guess of 13th. After that, timing is probably not very likely to be that accurate but seeing a minor peak on 13th (under 50 at this early stage), and after that rather light winds to 20th when they might pick up again. Just beyond the 16 days of the GFS it starts to look quite windy.

So these mid-month forecasters will be looking for a bit of change to those predictions and the end of month forecasts might be favoured if this (the above scenario) is all that happens in the first three weeks.

M.T. Cranium · 07-11-2018 9:50pm

So a max gust of 46 knots on 6th (Roches Point) leaves the 7th guesses in second place for now but they still have the edge with the 9th being closer to them than to anyone else.

M.T. Cranium · 08-11-2018 8:20pm

After the first week of November ...

IMT on 8.1 C which is 0.3 below average.

MAX 16.3 and MIN --5.0

PRC 159% of normal, ranged from slightly below in west, to almost three times normal in southeast.

SUN 110% of normal (659/600).

John mac · 09-11-2018 2:25pm

Max gust at roches point at 13:00 58 Kts

John mac · 10-11-2018 1:10pm

Malin head and Sherkin both reported max gust of 59 Kts

M.T. Cranium · 10-11-2018 7:42pm

Thanks for reporting those max gusts, I won't bother to update the tracker from a previous post until we get another event worth noting, but the people who picked the 7th are now in the lead for the timing. I suspect the event on the 3rd may hold as either second or third place now, although there could easily be two more events that exceed 47 knots. They would have to be two separate events and not two consecutive days from the same event.

I also noticed looking at yesterday's weather that every station in Ireland had over 10 mm of rain yesterday. We could easily see the month's normal rainfall in the first two weeks (in other words twice normal rainfall to that point).

Jpmarn · 13-11-2018 10:47am

Looking at the charts it does look like that there will be only small amount of rain likely beyond the end of this week. It looks like there will be an anticyclone building from the east over next weekend and probably persist right to the end of the month. Some chance of the monthly max temperature being recorded either on Wednesday and Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2018 10:59pm

It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2018 10:59pm

It has been a rather mild start to November, the second half looks equally cold and the net result will probably be close to normal for the month, like NormaL needs any more points.

As a rough guide to how mild, with respect to the CET for the net-weather contest (only temperature and precip there), I calculated some running means for November to the 16th and beyond, only eight years managed to stay 10.0 or higher (as I think this November will do) to the middle of the month, out of 246 in the daily data base. So if this were to be the ninth such year, that's about 3% of the years with this mild a first half (over there anyway, I find pretty close correlation most months). Other years that were running above 10.0 in the second half were 1817, 1818, 1852, 1938, 1978, 1994 and 2011.

I just checked the daily wind gust situation and past few days not quite able to match the top two we've had so far, perhaps today or tomorrow might do so. Unless we get a howling easterly near the end of the month we'll be holding on to see if any storms can break down the block that is apparently developing. Otherwise all three of the contenders might have come and gone by this weekend.

pauldry · 14-11-2018 12:43am

An average month can have a deeper story cant it

Im hoping for a howling Easterly or a Northerly gale to end month. Looks dry from Friday

Interesting weather in weeks ahead methinks.

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2018 6:40pm

Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC

DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st)

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd)
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

M.T. Cranium · 14-11-2018 6:59pm

I will be updating tomorrow for the second week. By the way, just noticed a gust to 50 knots today at Belmullet, possibly not the maximum for the day around the country, so that will upgrade 13th and 15th forecasts to shared second place while dropping the 3rd to third place.

The IMT was on 8.2 after 13 days and if today averages 12 as I would expect, then it will soar to 8.5. Could edge up or remain around that for two or three more days. If second half then averages 4, the outcome will be around 6.5 at end of the month.

M.T. Cranium · 15-11-2018 7:24pm

After two weeks ...

IMT now on 8.5, the second week was 8.8 which is 1.1 above normal for the period 8th to 14th. With the second half of the month looking quite cold, if the IMT stays near 8.5 after today, the end of month would be 6.3 if the second half averages 4.0.

MAX still 16.3 (yesterday managed 15.7) and MIN --5.0.

PRC now at 169% of normal after another wet week, 179% of normal. With relatively dry weather in view, this amount so far guarantees an outcome of 80%, while half normal precip from now to end results in an outcome of 105% of normal.

SUN now at 94.5% with this second week a bit on the cloudy side even for November, at 79% (475/600). I won't speculate on how this ends up since, well, it's November and any sort of dry air mass can cloud up in a hurry. But it will probably finish close to normal.

M.T. Cranium · 22-11-2018 8:29pm

After three weeks of November ...

IMT on 8.3, the past week averaged 7.8 which is 0.7 above normal (for 14-21 Nov). This still looks like falling steadily into the low 7 range but recent model output not as cold near end of the month, may stall around 7.0 for final value.

MAX 16.3 and MIN --5.0 still standing, neither looks severely challenged at this point.

PRC now 134% of normal, the past week a relatively dry 60% (near or above normal in the southeast, fairly dry elsewhere). The rest of the month looks wet enough to sustain that sort of outcome, possibly a bit lower but not much.

SUN now at 111% of normal, the past week 143% of normal (860/600). The average daily sunshine now is only two hours or so, which means that it would be difficult to come in much lower if there are breaks in the overcast from time to time.

As to the bonus question for maximum wind gusts, see the post earlier (on 14th) which has not required any new editing, the strongest gust since the 15th was 41 knots at Malin Head yesterday, that is fourth highest separate event so not a qualifier for points. Looking at the latest guidance, would say that 28th and 30th could be contenders, will of course treat any overnight two-day events as one for determining the separate events. Of the two, 28th looks stronger and could overtake first place, the 30th as shown now looks borderline 3rd place and needs to get in before midnight (the event rule will not mean counting gusts on 1st Dec even if it's the same event that started on 30th).

M.T. Cranium · 25-11-2018 11:47pm

IMT through 24 days has fallen to 7.9, now thinking it will finish a lot higher than 7.0 as earlier estimated because 28th-29th looking milder than current average, may not fall much at all now.

Meanwhile, this is the state of play for the bonus question heading into the final few days and predicted strong winds (mostly 28th-29th). I think to be somewhat more generous on points, if anything from 28th on goes to first place, then we will include all sub-events in that final phase, spread the points out a bit wider, and keep 2nd and 3rd in the places where 1st and 2nd now are. Otherwise we could end up bouncing two of those out and technically most of the field would be then looking at zero timing points. The models are suggesting either 28th or 29th could produce somewhat separated events that gust over 60 knots, we shall see about that. And yes, I do have a tardis, kindred spirit was in it too.

Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 14th)
____________________________________________________________

closest in terms of speed so far (59) __ 59 MrSkinner, 60 (Jpmarn, Artane2002, dasa29), 58 JCXBXC

DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) (3rd) (drops to 4th on 27th)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) (1st) -- stays first for time being 27th

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) (2nd) -- drops to 3rd on 27th
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public (actual was 41) -- 4th highest event so far

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots (preliminary -- max gust 57 knots) -- 2nd for now

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)

M.T. Cranium · 27-11-2018 7:47pm

The highest gust I noticed was 57 knots earlier today, have edited the table above. May not have the edit function by this time tomorrow but will update from Diana's doings ... will be generous with the timing points if you're anywhere in the vicinity.

waterways · 28-11-2018 5:50pm

Saw 66 at Sherkin Island today. Don't know if that was the highest gust.

M.T. Cranium · 28-11-2018 8:50pm

IMT currently sits at an estimated 7.7, had reached 7.54 after 27 days, today will boost that back up. Fourth week report tomorrow ...

Here's an update on the wind gust situation using data that were reported on hourly obs earlier today ... the last time I posted this on the 25th, I forgot to update the title so it incorrectly says (updated to 15th). Caught that this time, and have updated all the rest of the info, subject to a minor tweak when today's max gust confirmed.

Updates on the Bonus Wind Max Gust Forecasts and Actuals (updated to 28th)
____________________________________________________________

for timing, I will treat the various sub-events of 27th-28th as one event for timing points.
... this will include 29th and 30th if any gusts on those days surpass current 3rd place.

closest in terms of speed so far (66) __ 65 Tae laidir, Rikand, John mac

(edit -- this was later reported as 62, closest to that would be two at 61 and one at 63.)

DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd ___ 6*__ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47) -- (drops to 4th on 27th-28th)

7th ___ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots
9th __________ (actual was 59) -- (drops to 2nd place on 28th)

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7 (actual was 44) (see 14th)
14th __________ (actual was 53) -- drops to 3rd on 27th-28th
15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public (actual was 41) -- 5th highest event so far

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots (preliminary -- max gust 57 knots) -- 2nd at the time

28th __ max gust 66 knots, moves 27th-28th event into 1st place

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots (actual max gust 49 knots)

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots (actual max gust 50 knots)

_______________________________________________________

* The six who share forecasts on the 3rd are (from low to high forecast)

sunflower3 (52), Adam240610 (54), 200motels (56), MrSkinner (59), Jpmarn (60), sdanseo (61)
__________________________________________________________________________

Well done to rikand who will get a superbonus of 2 points as he is closest to the pin on both date and wind speed (unless we get a higher gust on 29th, seems unlikely, then I might luck out). Bsal may get one superbonus point if they revise the 66 to 67 (he's at 68 knots and with the second highest timing points).

(edit -- after I submitted this, met.ie changed their minds about Sherkin reaching 66 and the max gust was reported at 62 ... that would give kindred spirit the superbonus ... the Monthly Summary will be the ultimate decider on this).

Will probably spread the timing points fairly wide from each qualifier, as the event on the 3rd only dropped out of contention right at the end, think everyone will get one point at least, forecasts for the 7th, 25th and 30th will get two points depending on how strong wind gusts are on 29th and 30th could increase to three, and forecasts for 27th and 29th will get three points.

*corrected and edited in thanks to moderator ...

Scores if 62 knots is correct for maximum gust:

7 - DOCARCH (63), kindred spirit (61), sdanseo (61)

6 - Artane2002, JPmarn, mickger844posts, dasa29 (all 60), Joe Public (64)

5 - Rikand, tae laidir, John mac (each 65), MrSkinner (59)

4 - JCXBXC (58), Bsal (68), 200motels and Rameire (56)

3 - MTC (70), Adam240610 (54), dacogawa, waterways (72)

2 - sunflower3, sryanbruen (52)

1 - BLIZZARD7 (73), Pauldry (75)

_____________________________________

(for max 66 knots, it changes to this ...)

7 - Rikand, tae laidir, John mac (each 65)

6 - Bsal (68), Joe Public (64), DOCARCH (63)

5 - MTC (70), kindred spirit (61), sdanseo (61)

4 - Artane2002, JPmarn, mickger844posts, dasa29 (all 60) and dacogawa, waterways (72)

3 - MrSkinner (59), BLIZZARD7 (73)

2 - JCXBXC (58), Pauldry (75), 200motels and Rameire (56)

1 - Adam240610 (54), sunflower3, sryanbruen (52)

pauldry · 29-11-2018 11:11am

Met Eireann has Sherkin at 61knots yesterday and Roches 62knots with Casement

M.T. Cranium · 29-11-2018 3:24pm

Yes, I just noticed that and reported in the storm thread as follows ...

Some confusion now about strongest gust yesterday, in the "yesterday's weather" section of the website Sherkin Island shows 61 knots rather than 66 as earlier reported, leaving Casement and Roches' Point tied at 62 knots but in the hourly graphs those two peak at 115 km/hr while Sherkin peaks at 122 (supporting the 66 knot value). Not sure if this is quality control or oversight.

Will have to see what is said in the Monthly Summary, but either the hourly value in the graph is wrong, or the stated daily max is wrong.

Meanwhile, here's the report after four weeks.

The IMT climbed all the way back to 7.9 (7.86) after yesterday's very mild weather, the MAX was under some threat but remains 16.3 while the MIN will clearly be staying at --5.0. The IMT will likely finish on 7.8 losing a bit (might be as little a drop as 7.84).

PRC is now 130% of normal with this past week showing an average of 118% of normal. This will remain close to 130% at the end.

SUN has dropped a little to 104.5% with this past week rather cloudy (85% from 510/600) except at Belmullet. This will likely finish just about 105%.

So, I may have to revise the scoring on the wind gusts (the timing part remains okay in the earlier report) if the MS does not pick up the higher value for Sherkin. On 62 knots, the closest forecasts are kindred spirit and sdanseo (61) and DOCARCH (63).

(added later)

I just noticed that when I edited the scoring for the two different possible outcomes of maximum gust, I moved some of them around in the wrong groups, but I have arranged with a moderator to post the corrected versions. This would explain any differences you may see between the copy that I left there, and the provisional scoring table below.

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2018 5:21am

Provisional scoring for November 2018

With the MS scheduled for appearing on the 4th, it's a long wait to confirm certain portions of the scoring where we have fairly good estimates. This table can be edited for any changes found in IMT and PRC on 1st. Sunshine percentage will have to wait for the MS for validation, and there's still some uncertainty about the value for the maximum wind gust on the 28th (the timing points are settled). So there are two columns for scoring the wind gust speed, one based on 62 knots, the other on 66. The total scores show the addition using the 62 knot scores, with totals in brackets for 66. Superbonus points are awarded to whichever column has the 6 or 7 in it. This provisional table will be reworked from final values and reposted on the 4th.

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Max gust, date

Estimated values _____ 7.8_16.3_--5.0_134_105___62 _66 _28th ____ TOTAL

Kindred_Spirit ________ 21 _ 19 _ 18 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 7 _ 5 _ 3 _ +2 ___ 91 (87)

Tae laidir ____________ 24 _ 20 _ 14 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 5 _ 7 _ 1 _______ 85 (87)

Con Sensus __________ 20 _ 19 _ 17 _ 11 _ 08 ____ 7 _ 5 _ 1 _ +1 ____84 (81)

mickger844posts ______ 24 _ 18 _ 14 _ 11 _ 08 ____ 6 _ 5 _ 2 _______ 83 (82)

DOCARCH ___________ 22 _ 14 _ 13 _ 14 _ 10 ____ 7 _ 6 _ 1 _______ 81 (80)

JCXBXC ____ (-2) _____20 _ 17 _ 19 _ 10 _ 09 ____ 4 _ 2 _ 1 __80-2 = 78 (76)

sryanbruen __________24 _ 17 _ 11 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _______ 78 (77)

Artane2002 __________19 _ 16 _ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 2 _______ 76 (74)

sunflower3 __________ 20 _ 18 _ 19 _ 07 _ 08 ____ 2 _ 1 _ 1 _______ 75 (74)

adam240610 ________ 17 _ 18 _ 18 _ 08 _ 10 ____ 3 _ 1 _ 1 _______ 75 (73)

M.T. Cranium ________16 _ 18 _ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 73 (75)

Jpmarn ____________ 13 _ 18 _ 15 _ 13 _ 07 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 1 _______ 73 (71)

sdanseo ____________15 _ 13 _ 20 _ 09 _ 07 ____ 7 _ 5 _ 1 _______ 72 (70)

Bsal _______________17 _ 12 _ 20 _ 07 _ 08 ____ 4 _ 6 _ 2 _______ 70 (72)

Rikand ____ (-2) ____ 22 _ 18 _ 15 _ 01 _ 07 ____ 5 _ 7 _ 3+2_71-2=69 (73)

Joe Public __________ 16 _ 14 _ 08 _ 15 _ 07 ____ 6 _ 6 _ 1 _______ 67 (67)

200motels __________25 _ 14 _ 05 _ 11 _ 07 ____ 4 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 67 (66)

john mac ____ (-6) __ 17 _ 16 _ 17 _ 06 _ 08 ____ 5 _ 7 _ 2_+1_71-6=65 (68)

waterways __________20 _ 11 _ 09 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 3 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 65 (66)

Rameire _____ (-2) __ 17 _ 18 _ 12 _ 06 _ 09 ____ 3 _ 2 _ 1 __66-2 = 64 (63)

Pauldry ____________ 22 _ 05 _ 13 _ 12 _ 09 ____ 1 _ 2 _ 2 _______ 64 (65)

Normal ____________ 19 _ 08 _ 20 _ 04 _ 09 ____ 3 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 64 (64)

MrSkinner ___________18 _ 12 _ 15 _ 01 _ 09 ____ 5 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 61 (59)

Dasa29 _____________17 _ 00 _ 15 _ 05 _ 10 ____ 6 _ 4 _ 1 _______ 54 (52)

Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 21 _ 04 _ 06 _ 10 _ 08 ____ 3 _ 4 _ 1 __ 53-4=49 (50)

BLIZZARD7 _________ 10 _ 04 _ 00 _ 13 _ 09 ____ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 38 (40)

_____________________________________________________

The scoring was quite high for November, lots of good guesses for MAX and MIN helped boost the scores.

Kindred Spirit in particular has one of the higher scores we've seen over the past many months and years.

Once we solve the mystery of the maximum gust speed, one of the two columns will be eliminated and one of the two indicated totals will be removed. Also there could be slight changes to the scoring in general, but I think this is pretty close to how it will eventually finish up.

Won't post the annual summary or autumn (and final) four seasons report until final scores are confirmed. Check back around the 4th.

The December thread is open, suggest you get in there soon as the deadline just passed.

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust (kts), date

sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _--4.1 _ 135 _ 090 _____ 52 ______ 7th

200motels ___________7.8 _ 15.7 _--3.5 _ 121 _ 092 _____ 56 ______ 3rd

Tae laidir ____________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _--5.6 _ 128 _ 095 _____ 65 _____ 24th

mickger844posts ______7.7 _ 16.1 _--4.4 _ 121 _ 093 _____ 60 _____ 30th

Pauldry _____________ 7.5 _ 17.8 _--5.7 _ 125 _ 101 _____ 75 _____ 30th

DOCARCH ___________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _--4.3 _ 132 _ 103 _____ 63 _____ 22nd

Rikand ____ (-2) ______7.5 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 65 _____ 27th

Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 7.4 _ 17.9 _--6.4 _ 150 _ 095 _____ 72 _____ 15th

Kindred_Spirit ________7.4 _ 16.2 _--5.2 _ 125 _ 098 _____ 61 _____ 29th

sunflower3 __________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _--5.1 _ 111 _ 095 _____ 52 ______ 3rd

JCXBXC ____ (-2) ____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _--5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 58 _____ 17th

waterways __________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _--6.1 _ 142 _ 092 _____ 72 _____ 27th

Con Sensus _________ 7.3 _ 16.2 _--5.3 _ 121 _ 097 _____ 61 _____ 3, 7, 30**

Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _--5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 72 _____ any*

Artane2002 __________7.2 _ 15.9 _--4.5 _ 120 _ 095 _____ 60 ______ 7th

MrSkinner ___________ 7.1 _ 17.1 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 59 ______ 3rd

Rameire _____ (-2) ___ 7.0 _ 16.5 _--5.8 _ 108 _ 098 _____ 56 _____ 20th

adam240610 _________7.0 _ 16.1 _--5.2 _ 113 _ 105 _____ 54 ______ 3rd

john mac ____ (-6) ___ 7.0 _ 15.9 _--4.7 _ 107 _ 097 _____ 65 _____ 25th

Dasa29 _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _--5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 60 _____ 19th

Bsal ________________7.0 _ 15.5 _--5.0 _ 110 _ 097 _____ 68 ______ 7th

Joe Public ___________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _--6.2 _ 134 _ 089 _____ 64 _____ 21st

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 70 _____ 29th

sdanseo _____________6.8 _ 17.0 _--5.0 _ 115 _ 088 _____ 61 ______ 3rd

Jpmarn _____________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 140 _ 090 _____ 60 ______ 3rd

BLIZZARD7 __________ 6.3 _ 14.7 _--7.7 _ 127 _ 110 _____73 _____ 13th

M.T. Cranium · 01-12-2018 2:46pm

IMT as expected slipped back to 7.8 (from 7.84).

PRC finished on 134% -- the provisional scoring table has been adjusted (a few gained a point, most lost one).

SUN estimate still acceptable after checking daily sunshine 29th-30th, very similar to average after four weeks.

Next changes would take place if anything shows up in the MS to confirm either 62 or 66 knots as maximum.

November 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

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