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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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latest GFS run has us getting milder over the next week and staying mostly dry until next Wednesday, looks warm for the early part of next week until the breakdown. The GFS pushes very warm or hot air over much of Europe while the Atlantic rolls back in for Ireland, western UK and Scotland in particular.
This low turns Ireland fairly cool with rain at times and becomes quite windy.
Atlantic and low pressure takes a firm grip of Ireland and Scotland by next Friday.
A plume of heat over much of western Europe and eastern England by Saturday 23rd, Ireland remains in the cooler Atlantic airmass with another low lining up.
Relatively cool with another low pressure over Ireland by Monday 25th
Hopefully the charts will trend back towards higher pressure for us. It's a great run for most of Europe and south-east UK but the atlantic is too close for comfort for us and it has shades of July 2019/where the Atlantic continues to bite at the heels of Ireland where we miss out on the heat and the more settled conditions. There are signs that the high pressure returns towards the very end of the run so hopefully this maybe only a temporary blip and that we revert to warm and dry for June! This unsettled spell is still a week away so time yet for it to be delayed. Hopefully we will see the Atlantic pushed out further west on future runs.0 -
GFS rolling out again and it's more in line with what was showing the day before yesterday. It's much more plumey and continental for us with the Atlantic muck staying well out to our west. However there is some instability and thunderstorm potential within it.
I would bank this one. Up to next Tuesday it's broadly similar to what was shown this morning with warmth building from the south.
Wednesday see's a light south-easterly flow off the continent. the Atlantic tries to get close to us but doesn't quite get there.
Very warm by Friday 22nd with warm or very warm south-easterlies over Ireland, Low pressure in the Bay of Biscay may have an impact over southern areas with thunderstorms possible, especially in Kerry and Cork. Temperatures in the low to mid twenties widely.
Cooler with instability on Saturday 23rd, heavy showers or thunderstorms likely throughout the weekend.
Heights rise again by Monday 24th and the heat builds back.
We stay generally warm on mostly settled into the following week.
All to play for yet, this could go either way. Hopefully the warmer more continental flow will win out and we can keep the proper Atlantic flow at bay as much as possible. There is also the potential for some warm to very warm weather at times with thunderstorm potential in places as low pressures from the Atlantic or Bay of Biscay never too far away. Certainly the second half of May could be a good deal warmer than the first half. You could say this is starting to look very like May/June 2018 with the Azores high extending it's ridging over us from time to time as well.0 -
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the next 7 to 10 days look mostly dry, many places seeing no rain at all and temperatures lifting up to the high teens and low twenties for many over the next two weeks, a few places could get to mid twenties if we get enough sunshine and winds from the east are very light. A few more coolish days to go and then proper summer like conditions from Sunday onwards. The current dry spell may break down in the final week of May but that's along way off.
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GFS finally backing off the idea of a pattern change to normal service over the next few weeks. We still have the unsettled period this week from late Thursday to Sunday, but once that's out of the way, we appear to be heading back to a generally warm and settled scene, the GFS falling in line more with the ECM.
The ensembles are drying out too, looks like we wont be seeing alot of rain next week.
After this weekends cooler period, temperatures lift up again from Monday with high teens to low twenties for much of the following week. We may have a few interruptions with low pressures flirting with Ireland, but overall the scene looks fairly settled.
The ECM is still the warmer outlook with less in the way of low pressures flirting with us.
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Absolutely. Every year one needs to remember that England, particularly the south east, simply does not have the same climate as Ireland. Besides London is almost 500km away from Dublin. That's a big distance. It's about the same distance from San Fran to Las Vegas - and no one expects those two cities to get the same weather. It's like we're so obsessed with the UK that we expect we should also get their weather.
Yep, most people think Ireland and England have the same climate when in fact they can be worlds apart, especially in winter and summer. During the summer, the Irish sea and the Scottish border is quite often the dividing line between warm, potentially hot and sunny conditions on one side and cool, often damp and cloudy conditions on the other side. We are closer to Scotland in terms of summer weather and South-eastern half of England is more similar to northern France.
Friday's chart shows this perfectly, Ireland and Scotland usually have a band of cloud or rain very close, while England stays closer to HP for longer. Quite often these bands of cloud or rain will push through Ireland and on up to Scotland while brushing past western wales and north-west England. The low pressures some times make it across to central and southeastern England but usually in a much weakened form with far less wind and rain.0 -
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Will need to stock up on sun-cream, ice cream and cold drinks if tonight's GFS can be believed. Plenty of dry and warm weather on the way, high teens to low twenties for many of us over the next week and possibly extending into June as well.
Tonights ensembles show a very dry scene and a warming trend from Sunday as high pressure begins to dominate.
High pressure extends its influence from Sunday and persists all week, by next Thursday it is right over us.
Staying dry and relatively warm throughout next weekend, high teens to low twenties.
High pressure as far as FI goes right up to 7th of June, there is a chance low pressure could bring cooler and more unsettled weather from Scandinavia but this appears to only really affect the UK and pushed into central Europe leaving Ireland on the warmer and more settled side for once.
For the end of May and beginning to June you couldn't ask for better.
ECM also brings plenty of settled and relatively warm conditions
Fingers crossed these runs work out, looks like after we are finished with the annoying windy and unsettled blip, the Atlantic is packing it's bags for possibly a couple of weeks.0 -
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How is early next week looking now?
ECM remaining warm and dry, GFS cooler and some rain Mon and Tues next by way of a shallow area of LP , GFS was showing wet over the weekend but has pulled back on this now. ECM not developing this area of LP over us. UKMO keeping it out as well.
Two against one, would lean towards the ECM and UKMO so I would think better chance of it remaining mostly dry and warm. Signs of cooler weather towards the weekend of the 12th June from the ECM but GFS showing influence of HP.
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In their 10 day forecast today the BBC Met office are predicting a change to cooler and more unsettled conditions moving in from the Atlantic for Ireland on Tuesday/Wednesday next week and moving into Britain a day or two after that.
It does appear that we will be going through quite a cooldown from mid week next week with a cold northerly or north-easterly. This still has to be nailed down how far west it will get. Here is hoping that this gets shifted more to our east and we stay on the warmer side with the Azores high ridge still in play.
If this comes off it would lower the temperatures down to low teens, maybe mid teens and nights would certainly be chilly.
a risk of a slight ground frost.
This would also bring showers, particularly to northern and eastern areas and it would feel unseasonably cold.
ECM also going for it but it keeps the bulk of the cold and unsettled conditions more over the UK, Ireland would still be a good deal cooler than it is now. 0 -
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Slashermcguirk wrote: »That would be amazing if June turned out a cracker too. That being said my garden is really dried out. The grass has gone yellow and I am having to water the plants every day. It has been ridiculously dry since mid March
June still has a fair deal of uncertainty. Even from Tuesday there is uncertainty how much will the northerly blast affect us, for how long, and will it bring any rain. One thing is certain, the Atlantic/normal service is a long way off, it's nowhere to be seen on any of the models I've looked at, not even at the end of FI.
The Azores high looks set to set up shop to our west for the next 2 weeks and we will have some chilly northerlies to contend with. Any rainfall over the next 2 weeks looks very hit or miss. Our best chance of rain in the short term future seems to be this Wednesday when temperatures take a tumble and the northerly get's going. Looks reasonably dry again after Wednesday.
It appears we will have 4 cool days from this Wednesday and then temperatures will start to recover after next weekend. There is only trace amounts of rainfall from the GFS Operational as we go back to generally milder conditions from the 9th of June.
Much cooler air digs in from Wednesday
Northern and eastern coasts will feel particularly chilly and there may be a few showers, this appears to be the only real rainfall between now and the 14th of June if the GFS is correct. Some areas may get no rain at all over the next 2 weeks.
By Thursday week we are back to very warm conditions.
We finish on the 15th of June with another NE'ly plunge.
The first 2 weeks of June look quite chilly at times with some warmer interludes and mostly dry.
Longer range models want to bring a warmer and dry second half of June, all that could change quickly, but for now June is looking fairly dry. It is unlikely this June will be anywhere near as chilly overall as June last year and it is certainly looking much dryer.0 -
We look on course for a 7 to 10 day cool spell with northerlies followed by some average temperatures as we lose the northerly. Tonights GFS gets us to the 16th of June where we are seeing the start of a possible warming trend. We've heard a good deal about a warmer second of June recently, let's see if it start's to verify.
9th of June we start to lose the cool northerlies, the azores ridge is moving in towards us once again and temperatures start to recover.
Friday 12th of June see's the ridge moving over us, extending all the way from the mid Atlantic and begins to link up with Nordic regions. At this point there is alot of heat building up throughout Europe just to the east of the UK.
We finish on Tuesday 16th of June with the winds swinging into a gentle easterly flow off a very hot continent. The ridge stretches all the way from the mid Atlantic, over us and into Scandinavia, looks very like June 2018. By this stage we are dragging in some very warm air over Ireland.
This is a long way out, but if this was to verify it would easily get us to 27 or 28C, the GFS tends to undercook temperatures in the summer by several degrees. Hopefully this warm trend into the second half of June stays with us.
Seeing as most of us probably won't make it to southern Europe this June or July, it would be nice to have a few decent hot and settled weeks if we're going to be spending Summer in Ireland.0 -
There is definitely a trend for wetter conditions in the next 2 weeks but also a trend for quite a rise in temperatures again though initially slow recovery at first following this weekend's northerly. Warm and wet... wonder what that could mean :cool:
Latest ECM shows most of the rain over the UK with Ireland dodging a lot of it. These accumulated precipitation charts are over the top a lot of the time, particularly those of the GFS, and can usually shave off a good bit.
Personal bias aside, a good downpour or two wouldn't go amiss or be bad!
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ECM today has had a serious reverse on yesterdays very unsettled outlook. It is now trending warmer and dryer bringing the Azores ridge back into play.
Temperatures start recovering from as early as this Monday.
Next Wednesday the Azores ridge moves closer to Ireland, by this stage we would have average temperatures in the mid to high teens.
We finish on Friday with the ridge closer still, warm air to our west,north and to our east with some instability just to our south.
Interesting times ahead it has to be said.
GFS also trending much warmer into the second week of June with possibly an unstable mix, will have a look at the GFS again later tonight when it updates.0 -
The weather outlook over the next two weeks is proving to be very tricky to determine. We have quite an unusual pattern with the azores high out to our west and the jetstream diving southwards across North-west Europe.
We have entered a fairly cool and unsettled spell but it has to be said that Ireland is benefiting from a dryer scene overall compared to the UK as we are closer to that ridge.
There is some disagreement in the models to how long this cool and unsettled spell will go on for as we have high pressure just to our west and high pressure will develop over Scandinavia. The low pressures that are heading north to south over us appear to be not moving very far and swirl around the UK, low countries and impacting Ireland ever so slightly. What we want is the Azores to move back in and for it to link up with the high over Scandinavia which would prevent the low pressures from staying in our vicinity, keeping the jet stream up over Iceland.
Last nights GFS run was a very cool and rather unsettled picture with lows drifting one by one through the UK and impacting Ireland with the odd dry and settled day in between and no real warmth. This operational GFS run was not that well supported with many of the other GFS members bringing us back into warm and settled conditions for the middle part of the month.
This mornings GFS is similar. What is certain is the cool spell up to mid week next week with this Saturday being particularly cold. From mid week next week is when most of the members want to bring back warm and relatively settled conditions.
The thick green line is the operational GFS and as you can see from this graph, it keeps us relatively cool or close to normal temperatures throughout the next 2 weeks. It is going for another cold spell in the middle of the month but it is not well supported. There are some very warm runs between the 14th and 19th of June, many of these would get us into the mid 20s, possibly even high 20s. This is also the wettest looking period which could suggest instability with a combination of showers and high temperatures.
The ECM is similar to the GFS in that it keeps these lows drifting down over us every few days with some warmish and settled days in between.
The GEM is not a model I rely upon but it is very different to the GFS and ECM with next week's weather. It gets us out of this cool spell very swiftly and the Azores builds right over us from Wednesday and next week turns very warm with that model. We end up with +13 uppers over Ireland by next weekend vs the rather unsettled and cooler GFS.
As much as I would like the GEM to be right, I have more faith in both the GFS and ECM. It is not easy to answer what the weather will be like in a weeks time. There is no point putting much thought into the weather for the second half of June as I think everything is possible. We could see a continuation of the current rather cool and unsettled theme from the north or we could potentially enter a major warm spell. It is also possible we could have a rather warm but unsettled and thundery spell mid month. Currently not seeing much support for the Atlantic to barge back in but I am hoping the warm and dry spells will win out for the second half of June. Only time will tell, need more agreement within the models to see where we are going from next Tuesday or Wednesday.0 -
All I'm going to say at this point is this: If this year again treats us to a negative NAO in the summer after trolling us all Winter, I'll be writing a strongly worded letter.
We really are into a period of model blindness though. It's been a while since I remember FI charts flip flopping to the extreme extent they've been doing so for the last couple of days. All of this uncertainty seems to be driven by a meandering jet stream which won't make up its mind on what it wants to do - any particular reason for it to be so indecisive at the moment?0 -
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just one more update for now. The GFS is updated again and we are beginning to lose the unsettled signal and a definite warming trend. From as early as Monday we will see temperatures beginning to lift up and very little in the way of rainfall and possibly temperatures taking off again from next Friday.
The ECM is also turning on the heat for next weekend. GEM continues with it's high pressure and very warm uppers second half of next week. It's beginning to look like this unsettled spell could run out of steam much sooner than we thought, but would need to look at what the models are showing over this weekend to be more confident, this could all look very different again by the morning.0 -
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just one more update for now. The GFS is updated again and we are beginning to lose the unsettled signal and a definite warming trend. From as early as Monday we will see temperatures beginning to lift up and very little in the way of rainfall and possibly temperatures taking off again from next Friday.
The ECM is also turning on the heat for next weekend. GEM continues with it's high pressure and very warm uppers second half of next week. It's beginning to look like this unsettled spell could run out of steam much sooner than we thought, but would need to look at what the models are showing over this weekend to be more confident, this could all look very different again by the morning.
Thank you indeed Gonzo for your informative updates. A quick question please if I may.. How do you read the rainfall data from the ensemble chart. Well done again and please keep the updates coming. They are appreciated.0 -
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What a difference a few hours makes when it comes to model watching. Over the past few days were models were beginning to show a return to warm and settled conditions after tomorrow with the possibilities of some very warm weather after next wednesday. However yesterday the GEM changed it's tune and so did the UKMO with an unsettled spell mid week next week. This was later joined by the ECM last night with all 3 models going for a somewhat unsettled scene with dryer interludes inbetween. The GFS stuck to its guns with lots of high pressure and plenty of warm weather up to this mornings run.
GFS has just updated again and it is all change. Like a thief who sneaks in the backdoor to rob everything the GFS has now completely flipped and sneaks the Atlantic in through the backdoor from Iceland and goes to town with a very wet, cool and unsettled scene for the next two weeks with no end in sight to the unsettled conditions.
We start off with an improving scene after this weekends cold snap with a dry and settled scene on Monday and Tuesday, however from Wednesday this breaks down very quickly.
The Azores high is stopped in it's tracks as a low moves down through the UK and Ireland delivering wet and cool conditions.
Low pressure dives in from the Atlantic from Greenland with bands of rain or showers along with cool temperatures from next weekend.
This low deepens and sets up shop just off our west coast delivering bands of rain and strong winds, temperatures begin to struggle in the low to mid teens.
The low goes nowhere fast and continues to pivot on itself over just to our west, bringing a conveyer belts of rain or showers up over Ireland along with cool and windy conditions.
We finish at +360 hours and yep the low is still on our doorstep with bands of rain or showers and temperatures struggling.
For June it doesn't get much worse than this.
The latest ensemble run begins the unsettled spell from this Wednesday and the rainfall spikes are back in action properly from next weekend.
We are clearly losing the dry and settled signal here very quickly with many of the members going for lots of rain and average to slightly cooler than average temperatures.
by the end of the run the GFS is going for 30 to 90mm of rain over the next 2 weeks.
Temperatures struggling too in the 9 to 16C range much of the time
With so many model changes recently you have to wonder has the GFS just gone crazy on this sudden change to cool and wet conditions. The Atlantic has been nowhere to be seen for weeks and all of a sudden it is back full steam ahead at least for Ireland and western UK. I really hope this is wrong and we see a flip back to the dryer and settled scene.0 -
What a difference a few hours makes when it comes to model watching. Over the past few days were models were beginning to show a return to warm and settled conditions after tomorrow with the possibilities of some very warm weather after next wednesday. However yesterday the GEM changed it's tune and so did the UKMO with an unsettled spell mid week next week. This was later joined by the ECM last night with all 3 models going for a somewhat unsettled scene with dryer interludes inbetween. The GFS stuck to its guns with lots of high pressure and plenty of warm weather up to this mornings run.
GFS has just updated again and it is all change. Like a thief who sneaks in the backdoor to rob everything the GFS has now completely flipped and sneaks the Atlantic in through the backdoor from Iceland and goes to town with a very wet, cool and unsettled scene for the next two weeks with no end in sight to the unsettled conditions.
We start off with an improving scene after this weekends cold snap with a dry and settled scene on Monday and Tuesday, however from Wednesday this breaks down very quickly.
The Azores high is stopped in it's tracks as a low moves down through the UK and Ireland delivering wet and cool conditions.
Low pressure dives in from the Atlantic from Greenland with bands of rain or showers along with cool temperatures from next weekend.
This low deepens and sets up shop just off our west coast delivering bands of rain and strong winds, temperatures begin to struggle in the low to mid teens.
The low goes nowhere fast and continues to pivot on itself over just to our west, bringing a conveyer belts of rain or showers up over Ireland along with cool and windy conditions.
We finish at +360 hours and yep the low is still on our doorstep with bands of rain or showers and temperatures struggling.
For June it doesn't get much worse than this.
The latest ensemble run begins the unsettled spell from this Wednesday and the rainfall spikes are back in action properly from next weekend.
We are clearly losing the dry and settled signal here very quickly with many of the members going for lots of rain and average to slightly cooler than average temperatures.
by the end of the run the GFS is going for 30 to 90mm of rain over the next 2 weeks.
Temperatures struggling too in the 9 to 16C range much of the time
With so many model changes recently you have to wonder has the GFS just gone crazy on this sudden change to cool and wet conditions. The Atlantic has been nowhere to be seen for weeks and all of a sudden it is back full steam ahead at least for Ireland and western UK. I really hope this is wrong and we see a flip back to the dryer and settled scene.
The UKMO seems to be something similar. If the ECM says something different this evening, you might get your wish, gonzo.
Otherwise i think the discussion around drought conditions could be a distant memory soon enough.0 -
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