Potential for another wave of extreme winds Sunday Night/Monday

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2012 12:50pm #1

Higher res models are now showing the potential for severe weather as a wave develops and a small but tightly wound circulation crosses the country late Sunday. The exact scale and the development of the disturbance is at this point somewhat uncertain.

The NAE picks up the feature as potential extreme wind event for some.

Bejubby · 29-12-2012 12:54pm

2 in a row!

I think we should concentrate more on wind and rain events rather than snow. They're more common and always guaaranteed.
But I'm still a snow lover.

weisses · 29-12-2012 1:20pm

This event will mainly affect the NW am i right ?

JanuarySnowstor · 29-12-2012 2:49pm

Sunday nights feature needs close watching.
Could go either way, but were it to upgrade from where it's at it could well raise eyebrows

maquiladora · 29-12-2012 2:51pm

An interesting feature on the NAE alright.

Storm force winds along some west/southwest coasts here.

And then later sustained winds close to gale force in some inland areas as it crosses the country.

Worth keeping an eye on for sure. Since its a small system you could easily see some changes in track and intensity in this short time which could have a big impact on which areas might see strong winds & how strong they would be, since it's a narrow windfield.

We'll see how much changes on the 12Z.

Met Eireann highlight the uncertainty:

Very wet and windy overnight Sunday night with strong and gusty southerly winds and with heavy rain in many places. Lowest temperatures 6 to 9 C. Some severe gusts are possible in places, but this is not certain as of yet.

snaps · 29-12-2012 3:13pm

Turned wild here in mayo the last 30 minutes. Wind howling and sky sports juddering. Lots of wet snow in with the rain too.

downwiththatsor · 29-12-2012 3:28pm

Very wild in the heavy showers of rain / hail here in the South West, looks like a slight dusting at 800m+

joujoujou · 29-12-2012 4:06pm

Wind speed goes up.

Current data for co.Mayo, co.Roscommon border PWS
29 Dec 2012 15:05:12

Temperature (°C):
Current 2,2
Trend (per hour) -1,1
Average today 5,5
Wind chill -3,9
Heat Index 2,2
Dew Point 2,1
Rel Humidity 99%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 42,8 W
Average Speed 32,9 SW

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 0,0
Last hour 1,2
Total today 1,2
Total yesterday 6,9
Total this month 42,6
Total this year 685,2

Pressure (hPa):
Current 968,9
Trend (per hour) 0,0

maquiladora · 29-12-2012 4:18pm

12Z NAE for Monday morning.

A bit weaker and a bit further south.

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2012 4:18pm

There will be strong winds this evening especially in the northwest regardless of the development of the system late Sunday.

Pangea · 29-12-2012 4:32pm

What about this from IWO for tomorrow morning, nothing on met.ie about it.
WEATHER UPDATE: We are expecting further strong winds overnight (peaking 0400-0800h Sunday) mainly across northern counties. The peak gust potential is similar to Friday's max recorded gusts of 120-130 km/hr. After somewhat of a midday easing to 50-70 km/hr, another interval of about 80-110 km/hr winds are likely during Sunday evening. The winds will be strongest in southern and eastern counties.

Weathering · 29-12-2012 4:33pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

There will be strong winds this evening especially in the northwest regardless of the development of the system late Sunday.

On my phone think i accidently almost sent a report ha. Winds 130 for tonight like mt said or less?

Mr Cumulonimbus · 29-12-2012 5:07pm

12Z GFS has it on a more northerly track. 3am Mon morning.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-12-2012 5:11pm

GFS on its own though as NAE and UKMO keep it further South

maquiladora · 29-12-2012 5:11pm

Pangea wrote: »

What about this from IWO for tomorrow morning, nothing on met.ie about it.
WEATHER UPDATE: We are expecting further strong winds overnight (peaking 0400-0800h Sunday) mainly across northern counties. The peak gust potential is similar to Friday's max recorded gusts of 120-130 km/hr.

I have to disagree with this. I don't think it will be that severe at all this evening/tomorrow. The severe winds will be too far to the northwest, out at sea. Strong winds, but the models don't show potential for 130 km/h gusts. Maybe up to 100 km/h on exposed coasts. Inland, just looks windy.

This is different the system being shown for Sunday night / Monday morning, in case anyone is confused.

Our man in Havana · 29-12-2012 5:12pm

Is there much rain in this system?

howlinwolf · 29-12-2012 6:38pm

met.ie dont have any weather warning up on there site ( so far). is this because there is less chance of strong winds as apposed to last night..they had warnings for that wind event i think at least 24hrs before or is it the type of wave that makes it harder to predict and they just arent to sure yet.... a bit like the rest of us:rolleyes:

maquiladora · 29-12-2012 10:01pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

met.ie dont have any weather warning up on there site ( so far). is this because there is less chance of strong winds as apposed to last night..they had warnings for that wind event i think at least 24hrs before or is it the type of wave that makes it harder to predict and they just arent to sure yet.... a bit like the rest of us:rolleyes:

Just due to the uncertainty I'd say. They will have a warning for Sunday night / Monday morning unless it gets downgraded on the models.

Is there much rain in this system?

12Z NAE had up to about 30mm in places over the next 48 hours.

Weathering · 29-12-2012 10:33pm

Given the current set up maquiladora, what wind speeds could we expect?

maquiladora · 29-12-2012 11:18pm

Weathering wrote: »

Given the current set up maquiladora, what wind speeds could we expect?

Well its changing a bit on every run, so still a fair bit of uncertainty, but if it were to pan out as below then it could bring storm force winds to a fairly limited area of coastline in the west. An even smaller area than was shown on the same model this morning.

Could easily be downgraded to something insignificant by tomorrow though. It's a small little feature. We'll see.

eskimocat · 30-12-2012 12:18am

Gale warning on met eireann

Warnings

Gale Warning

West to southwest gales will continue overnight and on Sunday morning on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea with strong gales at times on western and northern coasts from Valentia to Erris Head to Fair Head.
Issued at 23:00 on 29-Dec-2012

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

Bsal · 30-12-2012 1:26am

Western areas are looking at 30-35kts and some parts of the East 30kts from around 5pm till midnightish. I would expect gusts in the west to around 55kts and around 45kts for the east. It might change though

Weathering · 30-12-2012 1:29am

Bsal wrote: »

Western areas are looking at 30-35kts and some parts of the East 30kts from around 5pm till midnightish. I would expect gusts in the west to around 55kts and around 45kts for the east. It might change though

Hi, What website did you get that from
Please link

maquiladora · 30-12-2012 1:33am

Bsal wrote: »

Western areas are looking at 30-35kts and some parts of the East 30kts from around 5pm till midnightish. I would expect gusts in the west to around 55kts and around 45kts for the east. It might change though

What does WRF show for around 6am Monday morning? Thats when the NAE is showing that small little low with the area of tightly spaced isobars with a narrow windfield.

Bsal · 30-12-2012 1:37am

Unfortunetly I can only get charts for upto 24hrs ahead.

snaps · 30-12-2012 7:07am

Has that low pressure/feature disappeared now? Or do I need to be looking at hi res charts?

Weathering · 30-12-2012 12:10pm

Update from the met office Further spells of heavy rain are expected to move eastwards across the UK during Sunday night and Monday, with the most persistent heavy rain likely to affect high ground in western areas from north Wales northwards. The rain will clear eastwards from these areas early on Monday afternoon.

The rain will be accompanied by southwesterly gales in places, with a risk of severe gales for a time across Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England during Monday.

The public should be aware of possible disruption, particularly to travel, and also of the potential for localised flooding

Gusts of 50-60mph are expected and a low risk of 65-70mph for a short period on monday

maquiladora · 30-12-2012 12:26pm

Track has shifted further north and its a little weaker again on the NAE.

Still a fair bit of uncertainty but its looking less severe than yesterday anyway. No warning from Met Eireann this morning suggests it may not look too bad on their hi-res model.

Weathering · 30-12-2012 12:41pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Track has shifted further north and its a little weaker again on the NAE.

Still a fair bit of uncertainty but its looking less severe than yesterday anyway. No warning from Met Eireann this morning suggests it may not look too bad on their hi-res model.

Agreed, but they do mention "There will be further spells of heavy and persistent rain tonight. It will stay windy with strong to near gale force southwesterly winds, while along coastal parts there will be gale force winds and severe gusts."

Also met office mentioning the possibility of 70mph winds for N.Ireland, they've never had winds that high forecast for any time this winter so far

Typical set up, hard to know what's going to happen until it comes

Deep Easterly · 30-12-2012 2:15pm

No mention of anything of significance for tonight/early tomorrow on RTE Farming forecast there.

howlinwolf · 30-12-2012 3:10pm

i havent seen any updated models but just going by the farming forecast and met.ie havin no weather warning for tonight/tomorrow morning it seems that this might be fading with every passing hour.......have any of models anything to suggest otherwise?

Bejubby · 30-12-2012 3:47pm

Echo, farming forecast forecast forecast

maquiladora · 30-12-2012 3:55pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

i havent seen any updated models but just going by the farming forecast and met.ie havin no weather warning for tonight/tomorrow morning it seems that this might be fading with every passing hour.......have any of models anything to suggest otherwise?

Still there on the 12Z NAE, but its tracking further north and weaker than yesterday. Some gales / strong gales on some west / northwest coast for a while. Nothing exceptional. It's covered in the sea area forecast.

_Whimsical_ · 30-12-2012 5:51pm

Its quite a stormy evening in Galway. At least as stormy if not more than the last day during the week (that didn't hit Galway too hard) . It's by no means hurricane winds but it is quite wild out and the wind is howling loudly here.

Oscar Bravo · 30-12-2012 6:44pm

It has turned into a wild evening! (Castlebar)

Pangea · 30-12-2012 6:53pm

It gust mentioned severe gusts on the met eireann forecast.

Weathering · 30-12-2012 6:56pm

Pangea wrote: »

It gust mentioned severe gusts on the met eireann forecast.

Met office giving 60mph possible 70 for N.ireland
on the website view the warning then more details

Conrach · 30-12-2012 9:06pm

Weathering wrote: »

Met office giving 60mph possible 70 for N.ireland
on the website view the warning then more details

The wind is fierce here now. Much worse than Friday night. The main Belfast to Dublin road has been closed southbound due to a fallen tree and a car which collided with it. I live about 2 miles from there. A neighbour's SKY dish has just blown off. He came and asked us for a ladder..eejit!! Going up a ladder in those winds. :eek:

Weathering · 30-12-2012 9:27pm

Conrach wrote: »

The wind is fierce here now. Much worse than Friday night. The main Belfast to Dublin road has been closed southbound due to a fallen tree and a car which collided with it. I live about 2 miles from there. A neighbour's SKY dish has just blown off. He came and asked us for a ladder..eejit!! Going up a ladder in those winds. :eek:

It's not too bad here in Donegal, on twitter they said the worst gust would be in the morning. Sky dish poor him ha

Bsal · 30-12-2012 9:37pm

Its still showing strong on the WRF model but a bit weaker than earlier forecasts.

Bsal · 30-12-2012 9:41pm

If you want to check out METAR reports from Donegal and Sligo airports

http://www.dawn-it.com/met/

I see a gust of 52kts recorded at 1933 at Sligo.

Weathering · 30-12-2012 9:42pm

Tomorrow mornings looking rough in donegal

snaps · 30-12-2012 10:14pm

Some very strong gusts here in last hour. Mean speeds not great, but some mad gusts every so often, in mayo.

joujoujou · 30-12-2012 10:35pm

Not really bad, could be worse.

Current data for Mayo/Roscommon border PWS
30 Dec 2012 21:35:14

Temperature (°C):
Current 9,1
Trend (per hour) -0,1
Average today 5,1
Wind chill 4,6
Heat Index 9,1
Dew Point 9,0
Rel Humidity 99%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 57,6 S
Average Speed 42,4 SSW

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 0,0
Last hour 0,0
Total today 6,9
Total yesterday 1,8
Total this month 50,1
Total this year 692,7

Pressure (hPa):
Current 971,3
Trend (per hour) -0,8

tylercollins · 30-12-2012 10:39pm

Quiet windy and wet in Derry at the moment. Foyle Bridge has been limited to 30mph for all vehicles, winds speeds have to be 30mph + for the the bridge to have the speed limited. Also numerous roads are flooded.

Storm 10 · 31-12-2012 12:17am

Very windy in Galway gusting 65 kph

eskimocat · 31-12-2012 12:48am

the wind is picking up here in Leitrim too.... the odd more vicious gust but not as dramatic as the other night. Is this one coming in at a different direction?

pauldry · 31-12-2012 1:47am

eskimocat wrote: »

the wind is picking up here in Leitrim too.... the odd more vicious gust but not as dramatic as the other night. Is this one coming in at a different direction?

Very windy in Dublin roof rattling 50 knots gust

_Whimsical_ · 31-12-2012 1:48am

Its a wild one in Galway tonight. Has been since early afternoon. Tonight is considerably worse than that day during the week we were warned about.

Thargor · 31-12-2012 1:49am

On a Gobus up to Dublin from Galway at 7pm you could really feel the crosswind on the motorway slamming into the bus all the way to the first tollbooth from out at Galway Airport, I put on my seatbelt.

Very windy in Greystones right now, roof is creaking like mad.

Grimreaper666 · 31-12-2012 1:50am

Blowing a gale here in Cork too.

Potential for another wave of extreme winds Sunday Night/Monday

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