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Gearing up for record breaking warmth from the 11th Nov ---->
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05-11-2011 8:38pm#1As the pattern toward potentially much colder weather for the end of the month evolves over the next couple of weeks the grudging refusal of the Euro High pressure over the continent to take a hike means Summer may well not be finished just yet. The trend is toward the Atlantic troughs getting stuck and meandering around to our west not up to that much bringing very warm air up from the South. It's all part of the process of change toward a situation where we can see the much colder stuff sniping at us from the North. Ironically it means a temporary return for Summer. Really warm for the time of year. Record breaking stuff here potentially. If this came off as forecast on the ECM I would not rule out temperatures breaking 20c. If it turns out anything like this. The flip side is it allows a plunge of super cold air into the Eastern side of the continent. Thankfully Ireland will have played Estonia before then;)
Anyways get those bbq's ready!
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The GFS doesn't agree with this setup at all. Todays 12z is giving max 850's of 6C, and mostly 4C.
Coupled with the fact that this is way in FI still (even if it was a cold blast there'd be a lot of criticism about a thread for 9 days in the future!) this thread does seem a little premature!
2m temps for Monday 14th GFS of 12-14C:
The only other models going out as far as sunday 13th (JMA and NOGAPS) aren't going with this either.0 -
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IMO (and I could be wrong) a much milder period is inevitable. There is general agreement on the Atlantic trough becoming almost static as it slowly sinks south and unwinds. The Euro high is persistent.
GEM (from MT's neck of the woods) agrees pretty much with a mild outcome. But again it is only temporary.
Some interesting signs toward the later stages of the ECM run give much greater hope for the last 1/3 of the November and early December for cold and ice in terms of height and pressure rises to the north.
Watch the cold plunges into Eastern Europe. That could be useful later in the month.
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The dreaded euro high aka Bartlett high! This winter still gives me nightmares.IMO (and I could be wrong) a much milder period is inevitable. There is general agreement on the Atlantic trough becoming almost static as it slowly sinks south and unwinds. The Euro high is persistent.
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id stay the hell away from the Canaries right now
Joe Public wrote: »
Jake1 is referring to the recent seismic activity at El Hierro Joe, here's a link to the thread
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75318885#post753188850 -
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thetonynator wrote: »But unless you're actually going to el hierro it wouldn't be much of an issue.
There would be an issue if there was a landslide and subsequent tsunami Tony:):) 0 -
Not a chance we'll get 20 °C
20c can be reached in November in an airmass where the temperature at 1,250m is 10c. Fine if you don't believe me. Everyone has differing opinions - life would be boring if we all agreed!:)
But...
Do you recognise this chart? Do you know what occurred on this date?
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1,250 m? That's not 850 hPa, and if it is then it's one cold airmass!!
I know it's not. It's around 250m below it. And that is a very warm airmass for this time of year.The highest November temperatures recorded in Ireland in the 61-90 period were around 17 - 18 °C and no more.
And?I don't know what happened in 1946, but I'm guessing from that setup that if 20 °C was recorded somewhere then it was probably down to local Föhn effects.
Yes, 20.0c was recorded in Rathfarnham in Dublin. Another chart I mischievously held back. The temperature at 850hPa level was not even 10c and was outside the margin of error given the less then adequate resources for measuring when compared to today.
What may occur
I rest my case.:) I respect your opinion but I just don't agree with it on this.0 -
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I love it when you all start in with the ...well i raise your temp chart with ... this temp chart... and see my next temp chart trumps your previous chart...:D
Apart from it creating a bit of banter, you tend to explain your reasons more and occasionally i am able to follow what the argument is and learn something!! So don't forget... argue in science boys! 0 -
I know it's not. It's around 250m below it. And that is a very warm airmass for this time of year.
So why make out it is the 850 hPa level?
And?
It strongly suggests that trying to get 20 degrees it nigh on impossible.Yes, 20.0c was recorded in Rathfarnham in Dublin. Another chart I mischievously held back. The temperature at 850hPa level was not even 10c and was outside the margin of error given the less then adequate resources for measuring when compared to today.
I rest my case.:) I respect your opinion but I just don't agree with it on this.
Rathfarnham. Was that an official station? Plus, it's THE perfect location for Föhn warming, as I thought. In any case, that was at the start of the month, you're talking about almost two weeks later, which stacks the odds even more against.
I'll tell you what. If we do see an OFFICIAL reading of 20...no, wait, even 19.0 °C this November, then I will close my account on boards.ie....promise! 0 -
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So why make out it is the 850 hPa level?
It is to show that we don't even need 10c at 850hPa to reach 20c at this time of year.It strongly suggests that trying to get 20 degrees it nigh on impossible.
No it does not.Rathfarnham. Was that an official station?
Yes it was.Plus, it's THE perfect location for Föhn warming, as I thought. In any case, that was at the start of the month, you're talking about almost two weeks later, which stacks the odds even more against.
No, I don't think so.I'll tell you what. If we do see an OFFICIAL reading of 20...no, wait, even 19.0 °C this November, then I will close my account on boards.ie....promise!
Well I have not said that it is nailed on we will get 850hPa temps over 10c. My point is the inference of your posts is that it is impossible to get 20c in November. That is not correct.
In fact it is on the Met Éireann website. It was an official station with an official recording officially recognised as the highest November temperature on record. Fohn effect or no Fohn effect.
http://met.ie/climate-ireland/extreme_maxtemps.pdf
Good that I had to bring up the November of 1946 incidentally since it is vaguely similar to the situation we see now in that it was very mild - I think we all know what occurred from late January 1947 0 -
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Sponge Bob wrote: »Please say snow if you mean snow.
Have you no pride, no shame? Get off your knees, boy!
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