Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Friday, 11 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will vary from 150% of normal in some parts of the north, to only 25-50 per cent of normal near the south coast and in parts of Leinster. Some other areas such as Munster, the midlands and Ulster may work out closer to normal values.
-- Sunshine will be fortunate to break the 50% barrier, it may do so in parts of the south and east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue mostly cloudy with outbreaks of moderate or heavy rain across parts of northern Connacht into west Ulster. Some localized flood potential exists around Westport to Sligo, where 20-40 mm could fall, but other areas will see more like 10-20 mm. Further south, the rain will be more showery and may range from 5 to 15 mm. Moderate southwest winds and highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a bit of rain or drizzle at times, lows near 12 C.

SATURDAY will be windy and in parts of the north quite wet and blustery, with 20-40 mm rainfall potential in north Connacht and west Ulster (again), flood risk is moderate in some cases. Again further south, not as much rain with some nearly dry conditions in the south, southeast and east. Winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. Highs 18-20 C.

SUNDAY will become warmer and quite humid with some residual shower activity in the north, but brighter intervals may develop by afternoon, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

MONDAY is also looking quite warm now with just a chance of rain brushing the south and west coasts, some sunshine elsewhere, lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

The rest of next week will likely stay rather warm, with some outbreaks of light rain, until about Thursday when rain will become heavier and temperatures will gradually fall back into the mid-teens.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm with a high near 28 C.

Sunday, 13 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 50 per cent of normal values (not counting earlier rain overnight).
-- Sunshine will improve gradually and check in near or slightly above normal by end of the week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy and even sunny at times in a few locations, with rather blustery southwest winds continuing near Atlantic coasts and some other well exposed locations, although these breezes will be more moderate in much of the south and east. Quite warm with highs reaching about 23 C in central, eastern and inland southern counties, near 20 C further north and closer to south and west coast.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear and mild, with lows 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, hazy and quite warm. There is a slight chance of brief outbreaks of light rain in a few parts of the southwest, but these are not expected to be very prolonged or heavy. Highs will reach 19 to 24 C, warmest values midlands to inland northwest due to a turn in winds to south-southeast.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with lows near 13 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be partly cloudy to sunny with lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

After this warm spell, just a gradual shift to somewhat more average mid-September temperatures as the surface flow turns a bit more northeasterly due to swelling up of high pressure to the west of Ireland mid-week. This may drop temperatures in coastal Leinster more than other places, which could remain fairly warm. The high will probably (no guarantees) keep Hurricane Paulette well to the west of Ireland after it tangles with Bermuda over the next day or so.

Meanwhile Rene has fizzled out and with a non-tropical low west of Ireland drifting south towards where it was trying to head, Rene has no support for further development and will likely be gone soon. TD 19 turned into "Sally" in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and that could become a hurricane before landfall near Mobile Bay around Gulfport MS. Sally is twenty days ahead of the record pace of 2005 (Stan in that year) but right after Stan came the Azores hurricane and Tammy, so this twenty day gap will narrow, first when TD 20 (designated earlier in the east-central tropical Atlantic) likely becomes Teddy in a few days, then we would be waiting a while for another named storm which will be Vicky. Wilfred would be the last conventionally named storm of 2020, then it would be on to the Greek alphabet (six letters were needed in 2005, we'll see if we even get into that in 2020). I think the odds are not great that 2020 will beat 2005 eventually because that season kept on producing well into Nov-Dec, but we should comfortably displace 1933 (20 storms) from second place. No names were given to storms then, so that's just the number of tropical storms or in eleven cases hurricanes that formed that year.

My local weather turned rather ugly on Saturday with thick layers of smoke drifting in from the massive fires in the western states. We partially avoided this by spending the day further north where it was hazy but not quite as nasty as we found it to be here upon return (actually half way back it was looking similar, a dim red then later pink sun in an otherwise brownish-grey sky, but quite hot due to earlier sunshine, about 29 C). We may be in and out of these thicker smoke layers for several days, otherwise the weather is clear above the smoke layers. Much smaller fires are burning near some local mountains too, but their smoke alone would just be nuisance within a few kilometers, whereas this larger smoke haze is originating from Oregon and California as well as nearby Washington. At least we got through most of the season without smoke problems this year, unlike several recent years where much longer intervals were marred by smoke.

Tuesday, 15 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 September

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal with a gradual decrease through the interval, close to normal values by the end of the week.
-- Rainfall will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal from a few showers today to Thursday, fairly dry conditions expected later in the week and well into the following week also.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal in a few spots.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out rather cloudy in the east with light showers moving slowly away from east Ulster and the east coast of Leinster. Later on, with mainly sunny but hazy skies dominating in central and eastern counties, another area of cloud may develop further west with light showers from that also. Amounts in all cases are not likely to exceed 2 mm in many locations. Highs 22 to 25 C for most, 18 to 22 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT will have hazy and partly cloudy skies, lows near 10 C, with some dense local fog patches forming.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals in most places, isolated showers mainly inland western counties. Still rather warm although a cooling easterly breeze setting in along east coast and into much of Ulster. Highs will reach 18 to 23 C in most areas, 15 to 18 C near east coast and in east Ulster.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered light showers, not much accumulation expected. Lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND will likely be more sunny than previous days with only slight chances of isolated showers, moderate east winds at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C on average, perhaps near 20 in parts of the west but as cool as 14 C near east coast.

NEXT WEEK will continue to be influenced by the blocking high until perhaps the following weekend, and a dry spell may continue to near the end of the month.

In the busy tropical theatre, Sally is slowly approaching a landfall northeast of New Orleans, Paulette is slowly pulling away from storm-battered Bermuda, Teddy continues a gradual intensification moving past northern South America now, and Vicky has likely peaked well off to the southwest of the Cabo Verde islands at 50 knots. There is a slight chance that the Atlantic low west of Ireland, slowly drifting south, will become a subtropical storm west of Portugal in a few days' time. It would then probably perform a slow loop back towards southern Biscay marine areas and perhaps spread a bit of cloud towards the south coast of Ireland next week. Teddy is expected to become a powerful hurricane in a few days' time, move east of Bermuda and towards the central Atlantic. While Paulette seems unable to shift the blocking high, Teddy might be more successful with the help of another tropical storm following behind, that one either Wilfred or Alpha depending on what happens elsewhere in the Atlantic basin in the next week to ten days. Remnants of Teddy and/or the following storm could bring an end to the dry spell and light winds associated with blocking high pressure although nothing very drastic is suggested on the long-range maps so far.

My local weather has remained very hazy from forest fire smoke, and that is suppressing temperatures considerably despite no change in air mass, now we're struggling to reach 20 C in the daytime with a weak sun barely casting shadows at mid-day. I checked various reports and this temperature decrease is a feature of the regional weather pattern with many places now below average despite uppers that could support hot weather.

Thursday, 17 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 of 23 September

-- This fine spell of weather will last about another week and seems likely to break down near the end of this weekly interval. Therefore there would be some uncertainty about rainfall since any potential for it only exists near the end of the week. The best estimate is that the week will average 2 deg above normal in temperatures, remain dry to very near the end, and that sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values as cloud continues to decrease under the ridge.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny and quite warm except near some eastern coasts where a moderate easterly wind will bring a cooling sea breeze some 10-15 kms inland with smaller effects to about 50 kms inland. Highs of about 23 or 24 C are likely in central and western counties, although with local sea breezes on all coasts providing some cooling effects there as well. Then in eastern regions the highs will be in the range of 18 to 22 C, lowest near shorelines.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy at times, with locally dense fog patches forming after midnight. Lows 7 to 10.

FRIDAY will be mostly sunny and warm again, with similar temperatures to today, possibly on average about one degree lower in all cases, as this air mass will slowly moderate towards more normal temperatures.

The WEEKEND and MONDAY will see a continuation of this trend with partly cloudy to sunny weather both days, fairly light east to southeast winds but variable around coasts in general, and overnight lows 4 to 8 C with daytime highs 16 to 20 C. Later Monday, there could be some increasing cloud over much of the west and north with the slow approach of frontal systems breaking into the blocking regime.

As it looks now, the middle of next week will see a slow breakdown of the dry spell with increasing amounts of cloud and some rain edging into western and northern counties but not making much progress for several days. Temperatures will likely be just slightly above average by then, daytime highs 15 to 19 C.

Towards the end of next week, a more decisive change in the pattern will come about as remnants of Hurricane Teddy, possibly pulling in remnants of former hurricane Paulette from its position south of the Azores by then, creates a stronger wind gradient and spreads at least some rain across most of the country. Details remain sketchy, but there is no strong indication of a direct hit of a well-organized storm, more like the dying phases of a disorganized widespread breakdown of the systems over the eastern third of the Atlantic.

Worth noting also that a "medicane" has formed east of Sicily and will drift slowly east possibly affecting parts of western Greece in a few days. Remnants of Sally are drenching the inland southeastern U.S. and a bit of that energy will also be rippling into the Atlantic this weekend, Sally is not expected to redevelop to any extent but a frontal wave will race towards Iceland and start to position the front for later action across western Europe.

My local weather continues to see a mixture of hot, dry influences from the upper pattern, and cooler misty effects from smoke layers drifting along in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so we have been getting alternating spells of hazy sunshine and almost a fog with water droplets condensing out, highs during the sunnier intervals reaching mid to high 20s, but temperatures fluctuating with the amount of smoke. Rather strange weather to say the least. The source fires are somewhat diminished (mainly in Oregon now) but not yet under control entirely.

Today at 1101h UTC (1201 IST) marks the new moon which will bring on the start of the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah.

Saturday, 19 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September 2020

-- Temperatures will be near normal values, with a downward trend reaching 2-3 below normal near end.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see some cloud, mostly of higher types, spreading across the south, but some sunshine will continue to break through. The moderate east winds will cool off the eastern counties to around 15 C, while further west highs of 19 or 20 C are likely.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some fog patches forming and cool, with lows 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy again once any persistent fog dissipates, with somewhat less cooling from easterly breezes as they drop off to lighter values, highs still in the 15 to 20 C range.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with increasing lower cloud decks expected across parts of the north, leading to rain late in the day there. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 20 C.

TUESDAY will become quite breezy and considerably cooler with intervals of light rain followed by partial clearing, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

The outlook for mid-week and towards the following weekend is generally rather cool and occasionally wet as Atlantic frontal systems return. Highs will be in the 12 to 16 C range and nights sometimes close to frost levels.

There is still some uncertainty in the longer term forecast due to Teddy, which is still most likely to head north from near Bermuda this weekend into some part of eastern Canada then on towards Greenland as a remnant low. The current guidance does not show much left of Teddy's circulation by the time it gets past the middle of the Atlantic but that could conceivably change if the track is only a glancing blow of Newfoundland and not as earlier thought a longer run into the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland-Labrador.

The tropical action was fast and furious, with the Atlantic storm I mentioned getting the name Wilfred (it is not predicted to have much of a future), then a regular Atlantic low near Portugal briefly acquiring enough subtropical storm characteristics to snag the name Alpha, so that the Gulf of Mexico storm now has the name Beta. As happened in 2005, Beta shows signs of becoming a hurricane (Alpha peaked at 50 knots and dissipated overnight in the Iberian peninsula). This year's Beta is a month earlier than 2005 Alpha (the 23rd named storm of each season) but as I mentioned, this is no guarantee of outdoing 2005 by end of play, although clearly there is no hesitation in naming just about anything this year.

Monday, 21 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal, with the coldest days mid-week.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, most of it will come around Wednesday and Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal even though today will be well above that.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with increasing cloud from the north invading some parts of Connacht and Ulster. Also some persistent coastal low cloud and inland fog may not dissipate entirely until afternoon in some cases. For most places highs will be quite warm, 19 to 22 C. A few coastal locations could be several degrees cooler.

TONIGHT will see the cloud advancing south across all regions, followed by outbreaks of rain. About 3-5 mm can be expected by morning. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will become rather windy and rain will alternate with brighter spells, with westerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will become mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, showery at first, then heavier towards evening. Lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY some heavy rain is likely with 20-30 mm falls, then rain tapering to drizzle or scattered showers later on Thursday as rather chilly northwest winds set in. Lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated, slightly milder after a cold start, lows near 5 C and highs near 16 C.

The outlook for the weekend is for somewhat warmer weather to return, but with some rain at times as fronts will not be too far away at any stage. This unsettled and near normal pattern will continue into the final few days of the month.

Hurricane Teddy is passing Bermuda to the east, and will intensify one more time, before undergoing extratropical transition. By the time the storm hits eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, around mid-week, it will have lost its tropical nature but will still have some hurricane force wind gusts. The remnants will travel up towards southern Greenland and spin around near Iceland for several days. A frontal system passing to the south of Teddy's dying phases will gain some of its energy and arrive in Ireland near the end of the month. Only a moderately strong frontal system is expected at this point. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Beta continues a rather slow and sluggish drift towards the Texas coast and will come onto land by Tuesday morning.

My local weather on Sunday saw much of the recent smoke clearing away to reveal partly cloudy skies with localized showers, and highs near 19 C.

Wednesday, 23 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 September 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal except 25-50 per cent above normal in the southwest.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a band of showers expected to move across Munster into south Leinster, just a few outbreaks of light rain by afternoon further north. Rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C. About 2 to 5 mm rainfalls.

TONIGHT will become wet and windy, with some bursts of heavier rain especially in Munster where 15-25 mm is likely. Winds will increase to westerly 50 to 80 km/hr across the south, veering to northwest 50-80 km/hr on Atlantic coasts by morning. These stronger winds will not appear inland or in the east and north until closer to mid-day on Thursday. Overnight lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will then become quite windy in all other regions, west to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle. A further 5-10 mm of rain will be widespread, with mostly cloudy skies and a slight risk of thunder in the south. Highs 13 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will see only slight improvements with gusty west to northwest winds at times, passing showers, and temperatures in the range of lows near 8 to highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY will bring some rain at times, but also some brighter intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY could start out dry but cloud and some rain will follow, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain and highs near 15 C.

The pattern looks unsettled into the first part of October but there are signals for a more settled interval around the second week of October as blocking high pressure to the east or northeast may resume for a time then.

Post-tropical cyclone Teddy is heading for a landfall in eastern Nova Scotia, despite the very strong winds and large waves reported near it on Tuesday, impacts are expected to be moderate once it does reach land. The remnants will move on through Newfoundland into the vicinity of southern Greenland and Iceland; the impacts for Ireland will be indirect, as these remnants will energize the pattern over the Atlantic and contribute to the later unsettled spells of weather.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with a high near 21 C, smoke seems to be slowly building up again as winds become more southerly, but it's not as bad as the earlier spell.

Thursday, 24 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Sept 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, with some parts of the southwest about 25% above normal.
-- Sunshine will average only half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy across the south, winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Some squally showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the inland south, with amounts variable 5 to 25 mm. Another band of showers will be circulating back from the east across north-central counties, as low pressure gradually works its way through the midlands to Leinster. Until the low reaches the eastern counties, stronger winds will be confined to the south and west coasts, but eventually all other regions will have a spell of windy weather by this afternoon, with frequent showers or intervals of rain. It will also be rather cold with highs only 13 to 16 C, and temperatures falling once northwest winds set in.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and wet with winds northwest to north 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C. Expect a further 10 or 15 mm of rain by morning.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with the winds slowly moderating later in the day, passing showers and winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs will be 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY some light rain will continue for a part of the morning in the south, but partial clearing will develop and the afternoon should be dry in most places, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a chilly start to the day but moderating temperatures by afternoon, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking unsettled with some intervals of rain both days and highs near 17 C.

Later next week, a low will spread rain across all regions from north to south and it will be quite cool, highs 13 to 15 degrees. There are still faint signs of an improving trend into the second week of October.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain most of the afternoon and evening, highs only around 15 C, and feeling decidedly autumnal; not much change of colours in our deciduous trees around here yet though. For the first time in quite a while, there are no active tropical storms, as both Teddy and Beta have been moved into post-tropical categories, and Paulette's brief resurgence has also ended. The next named storm (if there is one) will be Gamma. There's no telling how far into the Greek alphabet we could go, since many seasons are only two-thirds done by this point.

Saturday, 26 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in most areas but east Ulster may pick up heavy rains (to twice normal values) around Thursday.
-- Sunshine will be generous this weekend then largely absent, the blend should be around 75% of normal overall.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny but cool in most places, with a little more cloud in parts of the north where isolated showers may drift in, but almost everywhere will remain dry. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be clear with fog patches developing, and scattered frost again, as we have at the present time with some readings as low as -2, and this is likely to repeat in the same places. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will bring some morning sunshine then increasing cloud from the south and west during the afternoon, a bit warmer with highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY will see a weak frontal system moving through during the late overnight and morning (for Leinster), then partial clearing will follow, with moderate southwest winds developing, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with occasional light rain by afternoon, lows near 3 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring some rain and increasingly strong winds by later in the day, with 5-15 mm rainfalls expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking very unsettled with strong winds from a deep low pressure system that at this rather early stage seems to be heading for a grand tour of Ireland and then Britain with winds initially strong from the southeast to east and later turning to westerly as the low reaches higher latitudes. East Ulster (or more so eastern Northern Ireland) will see some heavy rainfalls being closer to this low's core at times on Thursday and early Friday, further away the precipitation may be more showery but will mount up to 10-20 mm amounts at least. Temperatures will be in the 12 to 14 C range most of the time.

Once that low dies out over the following weekend, with residual cloud and showers continuing, more active disturbances are expected to follow in a rather chilly west to northwest flow from the North Atlantic. Temperatures may fall back to around 10 C with that.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light rain and chilly temperatures that were stuck in the range of 7 to 9 degrees at our elevation, and 10 to 12 C down in the valleys. We are supposed to get one more spell of fine autumn weather next week for a few days but it will be Tuesday before that sets in.

Monday, 28 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 28 Sept to 4 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will begin with a few showers, generally light with 1-2 mm additional rain expected, then gradual clearing will develop from west to east, with sunny intervals by afternoon. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will become partly to mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers, lows near 7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few isolated showers, highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out unsettled with some heavy rain showers moving through in the early morning hours, then variable cloud and somewhat fresher, cooler by afternoon, temperatures steady near 12 C.

THURSDAY will become quite cool and breezy with outbreaks of light to moderate rain, 5 to 10 mm generally, some heavier amounts in the south. Lows near 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking quite wet and windy as low pressure comes back from an earlier pass to the south after looping around over Britain, and this time moves through eastern and southeastern counties of Ireland, with moderate to strong northeast winds developing for most regions, bands of rain and the chance of sleet or snow on higher peaks. Temperatures will be stuck in the range of 7 to 11 C throughout.

By SUNDAY, some slight improvements but staying quite chilly with some sunny breaks and passing showers, highs only 7 to 10 C.

Most of the following week looks unsettled although the weather won't be wet or windy all the time, just for intervals when fronts are passing, and sometimes quite windy with bursts of heavy rain. So, a fairly typical autumn pattern with winds generally from the northwest except briefly southwest ahead of approaching fronts. Highs will be around 12 C on average, a little below early October normals.

My local weather started to improve with mostly sunny skies after morning mist, and the high reached about 13 C. Warmer weather is on the way here for most of the week. Skies were finally clear in the evening for a change, and I noticed that Mars is considerably brighter now than last time I was able to see it, also Jupiter and Saturn have begun their final approach to the December (apparent) conjunction (the real conjunction from a solar perspective is next week, but our angle to that will close down progressively after mid-October and it will appear from here that the conjunction is in mid-December). The moon was waxing towards full and will be close to Mars within a couple of days if you also get a break in the overcast one evening.

Wednesday, 30 September, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 30 Sept to 7 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest in the east.
-- Sunshine will average only about half of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rain will end soon in eastern counties, followed by variable cloud and isolated showers, rather cool, highs near 13 C. Winds moderate westerly 40 to 60 km/hr will ease later in the day. Any brighter spells will probably be most frequent around late morning as cloud increases from the west by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few light showers, lows 5 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and isolated thunderstorms, some prolonged and heavy downpours possible as there will be only slow movement of cells that develop, especially in some central counties, 10 to 25 mm rainfalls are expected. Winds rather variable will become northeast 20-40 km/hr across most of the northern and later central counties. Cool with highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and cool with chance of some rain at times in the southeast, generally dry and bright elsewhere with a mixture of sun and cloud, morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, some heavy rain may begin by evening moving from east to west, reaching Leinster and east Ulster well before midnight, further west it may not set in until Sunday morning. Lows near 4 C and highs around 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued heavy rain for a time in eastern and some central counties, potential for 20-40 mm in parts of Leinster, not as much further west where cloud will be more variable. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

The disturbance from the east will gradually weaken by Monday and there could be a brief dry interval before more rain arrives from the Atlantic in a resumed westerly flow. Then it seems likely to turn quite cool and unsettled with flow becoming increasingly northerly heading deeper into October.

My local weather has been sunny and pleasantly warm on Tuesday with highs reaching 17 C. Nights remain chilly with a slight frost likely, then back to warm sunshine each day through this coming weekend as we enjoy one last spell of late summer weather. I would share it if I could (but then we had the two weeks of smoke so it evens out).

Friday, 2 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 October 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, possibly a bit below in parts of west Munster, trending to 25-50 per cent above normal in Leinster and Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals likely in north central counties, the midlands and west Munster. A few more intervals of light rain may develop near the southeast coast and there will be scattered showers moving in from the Atlantic into west Ulster and north Connacht. Winds will increase steadily to northeast 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts possible near the east coast. Rather cold with highs only 11 to 14 C, somewhat moderating towards the southwest coast.

TONIGHT will become less windy and skies will be clear in some areas, partly cloudy elsewhere, with isolated showers dying out. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will be a case of a dry and in some places sunny regime being slowly eroded from both sides as cloud from the distant storm "Alex" begins to back up to the west over Britain and towards eastern Ireland, while Atlantic disturbances try to break in from the west. As a result, settled weather is most likely to persist to the evening hours away from both east and west coasts, and most likely to develop towards unsettled conditions along those coasts, but there is still some uncertainty on the timing, more reliable is the idea that by Saturday night the dry conditions would break down entirely as the eastern frontal band becomes dominant and pushes through into Ireland bringing some heavy rainfalls with it overnight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will peak around 12-15 C on Saturday and will not drop very much overnight except perhaps in west Ulster and west Munster where cloud will not be as widespread.

SUNDAY the rain will continue to mid-day or early afternoon before tapering to showers in Leinster and Ulster, and some will spill over into parts of Munster and Connacht although further west rainfalls will be much lighter. By the time this event is done, 20-40 mm of rain is likely in parts of Leinster and there could be some localized flooding as a result. The rain will continue and possibly get heavier in east Ulster towards the end of the day, but other areas will then be into a west to northwest flow off the Atlantic with a few showers, and gusts to 60 km/hr. Temperatures throughout will be around 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY looks rather unsettled too, the remnants of an Atlantic frontal system trying to plow into the mess left behind by Alex will be sheared apart but there will be enough of it left to bring scattered heavy showers and moderate wind gusts at times, with temperatures still rather steady around 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will remain somewhat unsettled in a generally northwesterly wind flow, as the old remnants of the weekend storms slowly edge away from Scotland into the farther northern latitudes of the Atlantic towards Iceland, but around FRIDAY it is possible that the old storm centre will redevelop northwest of Ireland and move back in for a last go-round of wind and rain, to be followed by a cool but more settled interval as higher pressure finally gets a chance to build up around the weekend of 10th-11th. That would likely be a rather cool and frosty interval with highs around 10 to 12 C and lows several degrees below freezing in some areas.

That more or less introduces the subject of the October long-range forecast, would expect that all of those developments would likely be followed by further stormy episodes and intervening cool anticyclonic periods, overall it seems likely to be a cooler than normal month with heavier than average rainfall.

My local weather on Thursday became overcast from a warm front and some trapped smoke layers higher in the atmosphere, still rather warm although the cloud kept the temperatures down a few degrees at 16 C, looking like more sun will get through in coming days and boost us back towards 20 or so. Meanwhile, there are fairly strong indications that Tropical Storm Gamma may form at any time in the western Caribbean and if it stays away from land it could move through into the Gulf of Mexico by next week. Weaker signs exist for a following wave to become "Delta" at some point early next week, in the central Caribbean perhaps.

Sunday, 4 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about one degree below normal for the period. Highs will average about 13 C and lows around 5 C.

-- Rainfall will average near normal to 50 per cent above normal, which would be in the range of about 30 to 60 mm.

-- Sunshine will average only half of normal, or about two hours a day on average.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be wet and windy, with strong northwest winds in most regions, north to northeast over parts of Ulster, 50 to 80 km/hr with some gusts to near 100 km/hr in exposed areas. Rainfalls of about 10-25 mm are expected, and now it appears more likely to be distributed about in that range throughout as the storm spins around one final time over Britain and swings this arc of rainfall well to the west of its overnight position. So eventually most regions will see an interval of heavier rain, as the bands move to the southwest. Some moderation of these very poor conditions will begin to develop by late afternoon, but it will remain rather cold with highs in the 11 to 14 C range.

TONIGHT will bring some further rain and moderate westerly winds, 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows will be 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and cool, with showers or longer intervals of rain, moderate westerly winds, with highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will be windy and quite cold with rain at times, winds west to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring further outbreaks of rain. A storm will develop in the Atlantic and move either across the south (most guidance) or into the north-central regions (U.S. "GFS" model) -- on these different tracks, somewhat different results are possible in terms of rainfall and wind direction, but all solutions would include some wet and windy weather by Wednesday night into Thursday, temperatures both days around 10 to 12 C. We will see if there's some forecast clarity among the various weather models by Monday's forecast time. The track further south would force the winds into the east to northeast and place the heaviest rain over the southern counties. If the track is further north, strong southwest veering to northwest winds would be the result and the rain would be heaviest in central counties but generally heavier to the north.

Following either outcome, the most likely final result by next weekend would be cold and breezy weather with a more settled theme as higher pressure begins to build up near Ireland. Highs would continue to be only in the lower teens, but nights would get colder with more frequent clear spells, and there could be some frost. This regime is expected to become rather prolonged and the temperature trend could begin to recover to slightly above normal values eventually as the wind direction became more east to southeast in the following week.

My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm most of the day, as we travelled down to the coast where we will be for a couple of days. It started to become overcast and foggy especially near the ocean here this evening, while staying clear further inland. The highest temperature we encountered was around 23 C, and there is a lot of smoke haze drifting in from distant fires to the south (mostly in Oregon and California).

Tropical Storm Gamma has had only a short entanglement with land and has moved out over the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining about 50-60 mph wind strength with heavy rainfalls in the Yucatan. It is still expected to move a bit south of due west now and be close to Veracruz, Mexico in about five days although not yet inland by then. Some uncertainty on the intensity of Gamma which is being forecast to remain in its current intensity level but could reach hurricane status since it will be over very warm water for quite some time.

Tuesday, 6 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 October, 2020

-- Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be near average although fairly frequent therefore it may seem to be heavier.
-- Sunshine will do well to reach half of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will bring on intervals of light to moderate rain, with some increase in the coverage and amounts towards afternoon. Winds moderate west to northwest 30 to 50 km/hr with higher gusts developing near coasts. Highs will be about 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see some partial clearing and fewer showers, lows may fall to about 4 C where skies clear somewhat.

WEDNESDAY will have a mixture of cloud and brighter intervals with passing showers, but a dry interval is likely by afternoon. Highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY some rain is likely, and it could turn rather heavy in the inland south to south or even central Leinster, depending on the track taken by low pressure across the southeast into the Irish Sea. Winds will become moderate northeast in central and northern counties and could briefly turn strong south to southwest near the south coast. There are still uncertainties in the track and intensity of this system so forecasts may be fluid for a while yet. Temperatures are likely to be steady in the 8 to 11 C range.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy for part of the day but another disturbance will approach from the northwest this time, with bands of showers likely, staying quite cool with highs only around 10 or 11 C. Moderate winds from the west to northwest at times.

SATURDAY will see some slight improvements with longer dry intervals and more isolated showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will have a few sunny intervals and may be a generally dry day for a change, risk of some slight frosts and highs 10 to 13 C -- here again some uncertainty as models have been struggling with the strength of high pressure building in around this weekend, and whether or not it can hold off further disturbances starting around Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK looks somewhat more settled although some guidance wants to bring in further showery frontal systems from time to time. There are also hints of a more northerly influence that may drop temperatures a few more degrees.

My local weather as we returned home from a brief trip to the coast, was exceptional, sunny and very warm for this late in the season, as high as 27 degrees in valleys. We have a bit more of this to enjoy before a gradual return to normal autumn weather by next weekend here. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gamma has been put out of commission by its meandering path that brought it back over the Yucatan. It could redevelop in the southern Gulf later this week but Delta rapidly became a hurricane near the Cayman Islands and looks like it will take a nip at the Yucatan also, then move towards the U.S. gulf coast states by the weekend. This one could become a major hurricane.

Thursday, 8 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 October 2020

-- Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the week, 0.5 to 1.0 deg below on average.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal, with the higher amounts expected to be further north.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy and cool with a few passing showers, moderate west to northwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, and highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will have a few clear intervals, with partly cloudy skies most of the time, although more cloud likely in west and north with a few showers there. Lows 2 to 6 C (lowest inland southeast, midlands to north central).

FRIDAY will be breezy and cool with a few showers, winds northwest to north 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and cool, with showers becoming more isolated especially by afternoon, with lows 1 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will see increasing cloud with risk of morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C, and afternoon highs 11 to 15 C.

MONDAY will bring a few showers from a weak disturbance, winds shifting from southwest to northwest 30 to 50 km/hr with higher gusts near western coasts, and highs around 12 C.

TUESDAY may be a fairly dry day with near average temperatures, then a cool and unsettled interval is likely, with frequent if rather light rainfalls, and temperatures generally not much higher than 10 C. Eventually this cool air will begin to develop a southeast wind flow as the storm track will be pushed further south and lows may stall near western France; this could be a rather dry interval if the cloud and rain stay off the south coast, but it may also be quite chilly. Some uncertainty is attached because of the final evolution of remnants of Hurricane Delta.

My local weather continues in late summer mode with sunshine and highs near 25 C on Wednesday here. Meanwhile Hurricane Delta has resumed its ocean travels and is approaching the central Gulf of Mexico aiming for a landfall in south central Louisiana, a bit to the east of where Laura hit earlier in the year. The landfall still appears to be timed for early Saturday local time. Although the models pretty much lose any defined structure of Delta by about Monday (near the lower Great Lakes) if it were to retain more energy and a circulation, it could go on to disrupt the longer range model scenario so that's worth watching.

I hope to have some form of a winter outlook in about a week to ten days.

Saturday, 10 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will total about 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, some locally heavy with thunder or hail briefly, but amounts in general only 2-4 mm. Highs 11-14 C.

TONIGHT will have some clear intervals with showers dying out, fog patches likely and frost possible inland valleys, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY will start out sunny then clouds will increase, leading to rain by evening. Highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will have early morning rain, then partly cloudy skies with showers redeveloping in moderate northwest winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, cool, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY are now looking improved with some sunshine each day, near normal temperatures, and slight frosts, in light winds generally. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend and beyond calls for a gradual return to unsettled and at times windy weather with near normal temperatures.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy but still rather mild at 17 C. Rain is moving in overnight but hasn't quite reached us yet. Meanwhile, Hurricane Delta has moved inland over southwest Louisiana, with storm surge likely to be the main issue.

Monday, 12 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will amount to near normal values or perhaps slightly above normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some sunny breaks this morning, then another round of showers is likely from the northwest to the southeast, just 2 to 4 mm of rain expected with this batch, and highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few showers and cold, lows 2 to 6 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and quite cool with occasional showers, highs 9 to 12 C. There may be some rather heavy and possibly thundery showers near the east coast at times as a disturbance drifts south over the Irish Sea. Further west, less rainfall but likely to be breezy (northerly to northeasterly 40 to 60 km/hr).

WEDNESDAY will bring longer sunny intervals, after morning frosts, any fog patches should clear soon after sunrise. Winds may continue moderate northeast for part of the day then fall off to light and variable. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will become overcast with occasional rain at least in parts of the west and southwest, winds at times moderate northerly to northeasterly, temperatures steady in the 8 to 12 C range.

FRIDAY will see the rain confined to west Munster and possibly parts of Connacht, as it slowly backs off to the south and west as stronger northeast winds develop, and low pressure that will be near the west coast early Friday begins to track south away from western coastal counties. Temperatures will be steady near 10 C. This low will eventually track southwest and west past the Azores before trying to return to Europe the following week. This rather unusual scenario complicates the forecast for the weekend, as weaker frontal disturbances will be dragged along for the ride and could stall out near Ireland.

As a result, the best guess for the weekend at this point is somewhat unsettled although not very large amounts of rain expected, and temperatures still a bit below average but possibly edging back towards normal before a new surge of colder air arrives around Monday or Tuesday of the following week. When that happens it will likely turn very cool for several days and temperatures may be 3 to 5 degrees below average for mid to late October in a rather strong north to northeast wind flow, some onshore showery precipitation for the east, and some of that could be sleet or snow on hills especially near summit elevations.

My local weather is rather like that already. Most of Sunday here was dry, cool and partly cloudy, but rain arrived late afternoon and the freezing level is not far above us, the high even with some help from sunshine was only about 8 degrees and now it's close to 3 C, with forecasts of accumulating snow in nearby mountain regions a bit higher in elevation than where I'm situated (or above 1300 metres).

Wednesday, 14 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 14 to 20 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will be close to average for mid-October.
-- Rainfall projections are very uncertain around days five to seven of this week but it should be mostly dry until then.
-- Sunshine is likely to average about 100 to 125 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sun with some lingering showers this morning in parts of Leinster and east Ulster, slowly fading out by afternoon. Light to moderate east to northeast winds, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog and some ground frost forming, lows 1 to 5 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals in most regions, trending to cloudy with a few breaks in parts of the southwest. Highs 13 to 16 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, risk of rain at times in south Kerry and southwest Cork from offshore frontal system, not expected to make any further advances into Ireland though, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are most likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times, but generally dry, with the risk of some outbreaks of light rain near the southwest coasts, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C, moderate southeast winds developing.

There is considerable uncertainty about what happens early next week; some guidance shows the distant Atlantic low finally wheeling back around to make an impact on southern counties by Sunday night then all other areas by Monday; other guidance has not joined in and maintains the low closer to the Azores and possibly needing to make one more loop then moving in mid-week. As a result, we can't be very certain of the weather pattern for Monday-Tuesday except to say that near normal temperatures are likely, rain seems like a fairly good bet but is not certain, and southeast winds are likely to increase slowly. Later in the week, unsettled conditions are more and more certain.

The on-again, off-again cold spell discussed in several earlier forecasts seems a little more "on again" with indications of the cold air arriving late next week. This needs to be considered a bit speculative too.

My local weather turned wintry, we woke up to a covering of wet snow (3-5 cm) that took most of the day to melt as temperatures slowly warmed back up towards 5 or 6 C. The storm responsible has moved inland and is weakening steadily so it hasn't brought along very much mild Pacific air, nor did the strong winds on the coast make it this far inland, just a foggy and chilly night with readings of 1 or 2 C. The snow cover was considerably larger on local hills but the rain-snow divide was just below our elevation and the nearby valley got no snow at all, just a cold rain.

Not much happening in the tropics with a 20% chance of a weak wave developing into anything significant around the eastern Caribbean region. It may be a week to ten days before we have "Epsilon" on the maps, some charts are showing a hurricane well off the east coast of the U.S. around the 20th to 24th, heading north towards Greenland.

Friday, 16 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest in southwest and inland south.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, cloud will be on the increase during the interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see some sunny breaks, and a few isolated showers mainly over Leinster and east Ulster. Amounts are expected to be slight, trace to 2 mm. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be partly to mostly cloudy with patchy fog or mist developing, lows 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks possible in the midlands, north and east. Some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain are likely, still not much accumulation however. Moderate southeast winds, highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, mostly confined to Munster at first, slowly spreading further north and east. About 2 to 4 mm is expected. Moderate east to southeast winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY will be windy and wet with the possibility of heavy rainfalls depending on timing and track of low pressure expected to make a run from the southwest towards Munster. Some areas further north and east may not see much rain until later in the day or overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds east to southeast 50 to 80 km/hr and a risk of stronger south to southwest winds in some coastal areas. About 20-40 mm rain possible especially in Munster. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY will also be mostly cloudy with showers or continued rainfall, depending on timing, and winds could remain strong at least for part of the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

By mid-week there could be a colder turn as low pressure is most likely to have moved through by then, allowing colder air to move down from the north. This would be complicated by another low pressure area trying to form in the colder air mass and moving southeast across parts of Ireland late in the week. Temperatures are most likely to be around 6 to 9 C late in the week, and another 10-30 mm of rain is quite possible although not certain.

Beyond that phase, another stormy period looms for later in the month and there are signs that the tropical regions will activate again providing the nucleus of some powerful Atlantic gales, details keep changing at this distance.

My local weather was partly cloudy to overcast and cool on Thursday with highs near 5 C. Mixed precipitation is moving in for the overnight hours and another slushy accumulation looks possible by morning. We will be getting into somewhat milder air again next week though, winter may be here to stay in the local mountains but not at our elevation yet.

Sunday, 18 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg above normal, mostly due to very mild nights, daytime readings will not be unusually high for mid-October.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 100 per cent above normal values, with local maxima of 150 per cent above (or 250 per cent of normal). Much of this rain is expected on Monday and Tuesday with flood risks rising.
-- Sunshine will be only 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will remain fairly dry although cloudy in most places with a few brief brighter intervals. Some pockets of moderate rain will graze the western coast of Connacht towards afternoon and evening, and elsewhere there could be isolated light showers. Moderate southeast breezes and highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become wet in most of the south and west, and parts of Ulster, with 10-15 mm rainfalls in some of those areas, but it will be more of a drizzle in other areas, foggy at times with lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will see rain becoming rather heavy and moving slowly through the midlands and southeast towards Leinster and east Ulster. Moderate east to southeast winds, highs near 13 C. Rainfalls 10-30 mm possible.

MONDAY NIGHT and TUESDAY a heavier rainfall is expected from a second low moving in on Monday night or early Tuesday, spreading 20-40 mm rainfalls through much of the country, with a risk of strong south to southwest winds on the south coast and spreading up the east coast, most likely between Cork and Wicklow (Dublin may or may not get into this windy regime briefly). The west and north of the country will have more moderate winds from east backing to northerly as the low tracks through the inland southeast. Rainfalls may be somewhat lower in parts of the northwest also. However, for many areas, significant flood risks may develop, monitor the relevant sources of flood information if you have concerns. Temperatures will be steady 12-14 C (near 10 C northwest).

By WEDNESDAY another low may develop closer to southwest England and place Ireland in a moist northeast flow for some of the day, then winds are likely to back to northwesterly and cooler air will arrive, temperatures falling to about 8-10 C, with potential for 10-20 mm further rainfalls.

THURSDAY should be a cooler day with northwest winds and passing showers or outbreaks of drizzle, winds 40 to 70 km/hr and lows near 5 C, highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY into early SATURDAY, a new disturbance from the Atlantic will push in with strong southwest winds and possibly more heavy rainfalls of 10-30 mm, temperatures rising to around 15 C.

The pattern after that storm passes looks very unsettled with most guidance developing a hurricane or strong low in the western Atlantic that will move towards Iceland during the last few days of October. The outcome for Ireland could be simply a mild spell without too much wind or rain, if the jet stream moves a bit to the north as some guidance suggests it will. But I wouldn't be too surprised given the energy shown by the jet all month if the actual outcome might be a strong wind event for coastal areas (some time after the 25th).

My local weather was overcast and cool with a high near 9 C, but we are into a gradual warming trend for the coming few days, so not much snow likely this week.

My winter forecast will be included in tomorrow's forecast package, the word "mild" does get a bit of a workout so be forewarned.

Tuesday, 20 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 October 2020

-- With some of the heavy rain already recorded, for this seven days rainfall will be closer to normal amounts.
-- Temperatures will be around 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... A band of heavy rain will move gradually north, and last about 4-6 hours at various locations, arriving by later this morning in the midlands and central Leinster, to early afternoon across the north. 15 to 30 mm rainfalls can be expected. Winds southeast 50-80 km/hr veering south to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr (at least in southern counties, not as windy further north as the storm weakens gradually all day). Highs 13 to 16 C. There may be a more pleasant afternoon interval for parts of Munster where it's currently raining, with some mild sunny intervals after the rain ends there. That regime is not likely to push much further north as the low weakens and its component parts slow down towards evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become more intermittent where it continues at all, 5 to 10 mm in some places. Fog will become rather widespread before dawn. Lows 9 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intermittent light rain, and somewhat cooler, highs near 12 C. Winds will become more variable and trend to northerly later in the day with a moderate north wind by afternoon on western coasts, 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Extensive morning mist or fog, then sunny intervals, lows near 4 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy, occasional light rain, with a clearing trend mid-day and afternoon, winds southwest to west 50 to 70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm expected ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Occasional showers, winds moderating and not quite as mild, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK ... The following week is likely to be unsettled, and possibly quite stormy at times. Tropical Storm Epsilon has formed southeast of Bermuda, and will be near Bermuda by this weekend. After that, model guidance is all over the north Atlantic with the strong remnant low, Ireland can be considered as likely as anywhere else for Epsilon's final stages, and most guidance suggests that a second strong low will form in the wake of Epsilon, wherever it does eventually track, and follow along somewhat further south, so there's some chance of a 2-3 day interval of quite disturbed weather just before the end of the month. Also the forward speed of Epsilon next week is in some doubt and it could get very windy as soon as Tuesday or possibly not until closer to end of the week, if the remnant low does come calling.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and drizzly with a low cloud ceiling giving the appearance of fog and mist at times. The high was about 9 or 10 C.

Thursday, 22 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, mostly due to milder than average overnight readings.
-- Rainfall will be at least near normal if not slightly above, to 50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny then become partly cloudy later this morning, and overcast by afternoon. Winds will gradually freshen this afternoon before becoming quite strong overnight. Highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT will become wet and windy, although rainfall amounts will be modest, 5 to 10 mm in general, perhaps less near east coast. Lows near 7 C and winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will turn partly cloudy after the rain clears east by mid-morning, and it will then stay quite windy all day with another interval of rain by evening west, overnight east. Highs 11 to 14 C and winds west-southwest 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

SATURDAY will be windy with occasional rain and embedded thunderstorms possible, with locally strong wind gusts and hail possible with the inland western counties most at risk. Lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C, winds southwest veering to west 60 to 100 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will continue very unsettled with further rain or showers likely (5-15 mm), a bit cooler with temperatures in the range of 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy with isolated showers. It may become very windy or even stormy on the west coast by evening, or overnight into Tuesday, depending on timing of events (see outlook). Temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 9 to 12 C range.

The OUTLOOK is dependent on the eventual track of the remnant low of Epsilon which has managed to become a major hurricane near Bermuda overnight (cat-3). The models are generally suggesting it will move steadily northeast and swerve to the north, performing a loop south of Iceland. This will ramp up winds over Ireland but the main risks of severe weather might come from secondary lows that form in the circulation around the decaying former hurricane as the jet stream looks like it will be dropping back south during that loop event. Therefore while Monday night or Tuesday could be quite windy and wet, even more active weather events could come along later in the week around Thursday 29th and Saturday 31st.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant although quite cold, with sunny intervals and highs near 7 C. By early evening it had already fallen below freezing under clear skies. We are expecting a light snowfall (possibly just traces to 2 cm) then more clear, cold weather to follow.

Saturday, 24 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Oct 2020

-- Temperatures will average about one degree above normal values, this mainly due to milder than average overnight readings, as daytime highs will be average or even a bit below.
-- Rainfall will total close to normal values although could be 25-50 per cent above in some western counties.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite windy, with squally showers moving east this morning, followed by partial clearing but further showers and isolated thunderstorms by mid-day and afternoon in moderate to strong southwest winds of 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C, mildest in southeastern counties. About 10-20 mm rainfalls expected.

TONIGHT will be blustery and turning cooler with occasional rain, lows 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be windy and rather cool with intervals of rain, more frequent in western counties where 5-10 mm is expected. Highs 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and more settled with only isolated showers until rain arrives in the evening. Winds more moderate from west backing southwest and increasing to strong by evening. Lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

TUESDAY will be windy with occasional showers and risk of some thunder or hail, winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr at times, temperatures steady 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather blustery with occasional showers and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are currently looking rather mild with outbreaks of rain that could become heavy at times, and moderate to strong south to southwest winds, highs 12 to 14 C.

The pattern shows little signs of change with the Atlantic quite dominant well into November.

My local weather on Friday produced heavy snow locally, with 20 cms on the ground by mid-afternoon, and temperatures close to zero C. This is part of a large-scale arctic outbreak across western Canada that has the prairies well below freezing after snowfalls there earlier. We are expecting a gradual clearing trend and very cold temperatures for several days.

Hurricane Epsilon update -- no changes from yesterday's guidance, still expected to loop around west of Ireland and south of Iceland by Tuesday with its most direct impact on Ireland coming by Wednesday as the decaying centre after several loops and spins may arrive in coastal Connacht, but in a much weaker form than currently.

Monday, 26 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Oct to 01 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values with a peak around Thursday.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal, once again peaking around Thursday.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be somewhat less windy than recent or coming days, although the break may be marginal for western counties with southwest winds 40-70 km/hr there. Rather frequent showers near Atlantic coasts but many of these will die out before making it too far across the inland counties, so some longer bright spells further east. Highs about 12 C.

TONIGHT will become very windy with intervals of moderate to heavy rain, 5-15 mm likely and 25 mm in a few spots (Connemara and higher parts of Kerry for example). Winds peaking around 70-110 km/hr south to southwest in the early morning hours. Lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will continue quite windy with a gradual moderation, and the rain will taper off to showers and these will become more confined to western coasts eventually. Highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be windy with occasional rain, more frequent and sustained in western counties. Winds west-southwest around 70-100 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will become milder with occasional rain, highs near 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will be windy with rain or showers, highs near 12 C, winds southwest 70-110 km/hr.

SATURDAY will also be windy with some severe gusts possible during a frontal passage, southwest to west 70-110 km/hr with risk of even higher gusts in exposed Atlantic counties. Temperatures steady near 10 C then slowly falling later in the day to around 5-7 C.

The OUTLOOK is for further intervals of rain and wind, although some guidance is beginning to suggest a more settled trend may develop with high pressure closer to Ireland as the jet stream lifts a bit to the north. Not really sold on this yet, but worth tracking. Epsilon is no longer a tropical system but a powerful post-tropical low east of Newfoundland now. The guidance continues as before with a loop to the west of Ireland and south of Iceland followed by eventual arrival of the remnant low in either Ulster or western Scotland by Wednesday. Meanwhile Zeta has formed near the Yucatan and will be tracking into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, possibly reaching marginal cat-1 hurricane intensity at some point. After that, it's Eta, Theta, Iota and Lambda, all names never used before (if in fact they are used in 2020).

My local weather was sunny with a few passing clouds and very cold again with highs no better than -2 C after some record-breaking cold overnight lows below -12 C. The snow has settled to about 10-15 cm now, probably melting slightly from the warm ground underneath more than anything else.

Wednesday, 28 October, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for week of 28 Oct to 3 Nov 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, about 3 to 5 above from Thursday to Saturday then near normal or a bit below later in the period.

-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal but local maxima of twice normal may be expected in Connemara and Kerry, west Cork.

-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, to verify there will need to be a fairly good amount of sunshine on a few days because cloud will be frequent.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with passing showers and isolated thunderstorms, winds southwest 60-100 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY will become wet and rather mild to very mild later, with fog and intervals of heavy rain developing (30-50 mm possible in Connemara, 20-40 mm in Connacht and west Munster more generally, and 10 to 30 mm elsewhere). Temperatures will either remain steady or rise slowly tonight, peaking later on Thursday at around 16 C in the south and 14 C north. Winds will remain moderate to strong southwesterly, probably in the 50 to 80 km/hr range most of the time but with potential for some higher wind speeds near any organized convective showers.

FRIDAY will bring a rather variable weather picture with some breaks and some areas of rain but gradually the disorganized pattern will consolidate into a low pressure area tracking through the southeast and bringing 10-20 mm rainfalls to many areas, 20-40 mm to Kerry and west Cork. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

SATURDAY remains a "watch" situation as there is considerable potential for a strong to damaging wind event as the energy from Zeta arrives from the Atlantic. At the very least, expect a day of strong southwest winds 70 to 110 km/hr, and intervals of moderate to heavy showery rainfalls 10-20 mm, but the potential exists for more intense outcomes. Temperatures will be steady in the 12-14 C range. See the discussion after the rest of the forecast for more about Zeta.

SUNDAY will also be rather windy but will be turning colder, near 9 C mid-day, in strong westerly winds and passing showers.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking windy and colder too as the flow gradually turns more northerly, and temperatures drop slowly to levels around 7 C on Monday and 5 C on Tuesday. Some rain will likely accompany the strong winds (70-110 km/hr) and it could turn sleety on higher ground.

The further outlook calls for a four to seven day interval of settled weather under high pressure with winds dropping off to much lower speeds by end of the week, then picking up gradually from the southeast. This would be a rather cold interval with a slow moderating trend towards the second week of November. Eventually it looks like the Atlantic would kick in again although the jet stream seems to be taking a far northern route when that happens so there may be rather mild but anticyclonic intervals in mid-November with passing fronts somewhat muted in their intensity.

Hurricane Zeta is racing north towards a landfall late today in southeast Louisiana. From there the low will cross the inland southeast on Thursday and emerge east of Virginia by Friday, then it will be swept rapidly east across the Atlantic by a very strong jet stream. Rather than wandering off towards Iceland as Epsilon did, this jet stream will force the remnant energy from Zeta (which may be strung out into several waves) to approach Ireland and Scotland, and this is a large part of the potential for very stormy conditions mentioned here and in the official Met-E forecasts, around Saturday night. Bear in mind that the large distances involved and speeds of these weather systems will mean that even small errors in model forecast solutions could ripple through several days into fairly large changes, so that while it seems physically impossible for the intense low to arrive much before Saturday night, it could be delayed into Sunday or even Monday (not saying this will happen but the uncertainty is skewed more towards later than earlier).

Zeta has been moving towards a frontal zone that is stationary due to closed low pressure in the upper atmosphere over Texas and Oklahoma, where some areas have seen freezing rain, and further west, snow (Albuquerque NM had about 10-20 cms, a late October record for them). The very cold air feeding into this storm won't come into direct contact with Zeta which will move through a much milder air mass over the southeastern U.S. where temperatures are around 20 C. Zeta will be heading inland very close to New Orleans tonight and then between Atlanta and Nashville tomorrow, into the Virginias by Thursday night. The arctic front involved (some distance further north and west) will be dragged into the inland northeastern U.S. and might produce a bit of snow or sleet on hills well inland from the coastal cities. Places like Washington DC will have rain and temperatures around 15 C, New York City around 8-10 C.

My local weather continues rather cold too, despite milder air having moved in over top of the region, the light winds are not allowing much scouring out of the cold air in valleys so it remains around 2 C under cloud, but should warm up a bit further each day to the weekend.