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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #1922
    virginmediapls
    Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭virginmediapls


    Great that hotels are cheaper than rent now actually, saving rakes of money.


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    #1923
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    https://touch.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-co-dublin/2503412

    Wow, this place asked 2500 a few months ago and ended up dropping to 1600 before being let.

    Also quite incredible is the data according to this graph on Daft Dublin rentals being advertised; the average asking rent for a 1 bedroom apartment as of 1 October is 1631 while it was 2000 on 15 March 2020 (18.5% drop in the 6 month period). 2 bed apartments are asking 2093 on average as of 1 October, down from 2446 on 15 March (14.4% drop in the 6 month period). Supply of rentals in Dublin has gone from 1699 to 2642 in the period (35.7% increase).

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    Just to add, the Daft Q3 rental report is going to be published next month so it will be interesting if this graph captures what Daft are going to report (ie the arse having fallen out of the market).


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    #1924
    Yellow_Fern
    Registered Users Posts: 2,583 ✭✭✭Yellow_Fern


    rightmove wrote: »
    is there nothing in the rent cap legislation to prevent this. This is nonsense...either rents need to come down or not. Presume to RTB will have nothing to say on it. it doesnt work the other way around where rent is say 1k pre month but for one month only ( because its 50% under market) we will charge you 6k. ...but your rent is still 1k per month
    Perhaps but the rent cap legislation is why landlords resort to these tricks. These laws penalise reducing ones rent. Just one of the many reasons why they are stupid law.


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    #1925
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    https://touch.daft.ie/for-rent/apartment-5-saint-josephs-square-clontarf-co-dublin/2503412

    Wow, this place asked 2500 a few months ago and ended up dropping to 1600 before being let.

    Also quite incredible is the data according to this graph on Daft Dublin rentals being advertised; the average asking rent for a 1 bedroom apartment as of 1 October is 1631 while it was 2000 on 15 March 2020 (18.5% drop in the 6 month period). 2 bed apartments are asking 2093 on average as of 1 October, down from 2446 on 15 March (14.4% drop in the 6 month period). Supply of rentals in Dublin has gone from 1699 to 2642 in the period (35.7% increase).

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    Just to add, the Daft Q3 rental report is going to be published next month so it will be interesting if this graph captures what Daft are going to report (ie the arse having fallen out of the market).

    I think the Clontarf property was discussed on this or another thread a few weeks ago. Someone got a very good deal at that price.


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    #1926
    dev_ire
    Registered Users Posts: 157 ✭✭dev_ire


    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/ interesting if you compare now to a year ago prices are pretty much the same in a lot of those cases or not far off no?

    So is this not more stabilisation of rents instead of "arse having fallen out of the market"? Bad for people who got a mortgage to let a year ago or early this year though.

    Average is worse than median though.


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    #1927
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    dev_ire wrote: »
    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/ interesting if you compare now to a year ago prices are pretty much the same in a lot of those cases or not far off no?

    So is this not more stabilisation of rents instead of "arse having fallen out of the market"? Bad for people who got a mortgage to let a year ago or early this year though.

    Average is worse than median though.

    Says it’s based on Daft data? Therefore asking prices. The smart landlords are offering incentives (one month free etc) not to reduce the headline rate so it’s probably not the true picture. The stupid ones have vacant properties and claim “I can’t rent it!!”” in disbelief.

    In other overpriced cities (San Fran) rents are way down (San Fran 31% in a year) so hard to believe that in Dublin, where half the people living there don’t actually want to live there are “stable” now that they have a choice to WFH. That boat includes many friends and I.


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    #1928
    dev_ire
    Registered Users Posts: 157 ✭✭dev_ire


    I suppose we will have to wait and see, I know I would not be rushing out to buy an investment property now but not sure sure rents would drop as much as is being claimed around the place.


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    #1929
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Says it’s based on Daft data? Therefore asking prices. The smart landlords are offering incentives (one month free etc) not to reduce the headline rate so it’s probably not the true picture. The stupid ones have vacant properties and claim “I can’t rent it!!”” in disbelief.

    .

    I think you are probably correct on this. It does seem from there that there are places being advertised at rates far less than last year. Good two beds in D4 now coming on at less than 2K a month.

    https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops


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    #1930
    Sunny Disposition
    Registered Users Posts: 2,724 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Demand was very high in Dublin before the pandemic, doesn’t really look like prices will fall as quickly as they did around 12 years ago..
    But the rise of remote working is going to change the market in the very long term, cities aren’t going to be the hubs they have been. They can’t be, if 10% of officers workers and 10% of students are remote the hit is significant for places like Dublin. It’d be very hard to believe that level of displacement won’t happen in the next few years.
    The future for cities could be in heavy industries, as strange as that might seem in countries like this that have been shedding those jobs for years. The days of thousands and thousands of jobs technology jobs being announced for a city could be over. In future it’s more likely companies will come to a region where tax is paid and let employees work where they like within that region.

    Easy for me to say now that I’m out of it, but if ur a small property investor in Dublin sell right now!


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    #1931
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    dev_ire wrote: »
    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/ interesting if you compare now to a year ago prices are pretty much the same in a lot of those cases or not far off no?

    So is this not more stabilisation of rents instead of "arse having fallen out of the market"? Bad for people who got a mortgage to let a year ago or early this year though.

    Average is worse than median though.

    I was looking at averages; 1 beds are back to 1 Jan 18 levels, 2 beds back to some time in 2019 levels and 3 bed apartments back to 2017 levels.

    I suppose the percentage drops from the March averages was the reason for the "arse falling out of it" comment as those percentage drops came in only a 6 month period and now we are in lockdown for at least another 6 weeks so they will keep falling until the New Year anyway so another 2/3 months of falls.


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    #1932
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    2019 will be referred to the good ole days for landlords. Delusional landlords thinking once the vaccine comes its back to 2019 prices + 4% annually will be in for a nasty shock when the demand isn’t what it used to be. WFH will not be given up easily and flexible working (2/3 days in the office) will really help the commuter towns. The landlords will have left properties vacant for over a year for nothing.

    If I owned an apartment in Dublin, I’d sell immediately and look around the country where there is a rental shortage (almost everywhere outside Dublin) to invest.


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    #1933
    Sunny Disposition
    Registered Users Posts: 2,724 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    2019 will be referred to the good ole days for landlords. Delusional landlords thinking once the vaccine comes its back to 2019 prices + 4% annually will be in for a nasty shock when the demand isn’t what it used to be. WFH will not be given up easily and flexible working (2/3 days in the office) will really help the commuter towns. The landlords will have left properties vacant for over a year for nothing.

    If I owned an apartment in Dublin, I’d sell immediately and look around the country where there is a rental shortage (almost everywhere outside Dublin) to invest.

    Dublin prices couldn’t be sustained long term one would think, way too expensive, even compared to Belfast it was madness. Irish property in general is v boom/bust for 20+ years now, but Dublin is the worst. Hopefully the coming change in the economy with remote workingwill help even things out, I think it will.


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    #1934
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,296 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Sunny Disposition wrote: »
    Dublin prices couldn’t be sustained long term one would think, way too expensive, even compared to Belfast it was madness. Irish property in general is v boom/bust for 20+ years now, but Dublin is the worst. Hopefully the coming change in the economy with remote workingwill help even things out, I think it will.

    Why would you compare it to Belfast? Compare it to Amsterdam. There is no other similar location in Ireland.


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    #1935
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Wholly aside from specific areas being more in demand than other areas- it looks like the size of property is now a determining factor on how fast its rent recovers or holds- or whether its continuing to fall. 1/2 bed apartments and houses- are continuing to fall. 3 bed and larger- are rising again- wholly irrespective of where they are. Larger apartments seem to be at least as desirable as larger houses (larger being 3 bedrooms or larger). Smaller- the bottom has fallen out of the market.

    Should make the pricing of those co-living units interesting- seeing as they were benchmarking them against 1 bed apartments, which continue to be in freefall.........


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    #1936
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,296 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    2019 will be referred to the good ole days for landlords. Delusional landlords thinking once the vaccine comes its back to 2019 prices + 4% annually will be in for a nasty shock when the demand isn’t what it used to be. WFH will not be given up easily and flexible working (2/3 days in the office) will really help the commuter towns. The landlords will have left properties vacant for over a year for nothing.

    If I owned an apartment in Dublin, I’d sell immediately and look around the country where there is a rental shortage (almost everywhere outside Dublin) to invest.

    I don't think WFH will be quite the boon you think post-corona. People will still gravitate towards cities, after all the technology that allows remote working is not new. The industrial revolution is not going to be suddenly undone. In terms of policy, more people living in denser areas is the most important tool to tackle climate change, a far greater long term threat than coronavirus.


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    #1937
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    Wholly aside from specific areas being more in demand than other areas- it looks like the size of property is now a determining factor on how fast its rent recovers or holds- or whether its continuing to fall. 1/2 bed apartments and houses- are continuing to fall. 3 bed and larger- are rising again- wholly irrespective of where they are. Larger apartments seem to be at least as desirable as larger houses (larger being 3 bedrooms or larger). Smaller- the bottom has fallen out of the market.

    Should make the pricing of those co-living units interesting- seeing as they were benchmarking them against 1 bed apartments, which continue to be in freefall.........

    If the 1/2 beds continue to fall over the next 6 months it will upset more than just the co-living area, your 1k+ a month room in a student residence sharing with 5 others will also come under the microscope...

    Seems to be much better value out there in the 2 bed market than in September. I don't monitor the 1 bed so cannot comment but I imagine it is similar.


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    #1938
    Potatoeman
    Registered Users Posts: 4,252 ✭✭✭Potatoeman


    There seem to be more properties on daft going up for 100-200k below the surrounding asking prices for a quick sale. They are taken down again pretty quickly.


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    #1939
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Seems to be much better value out there in the 2 bed market than in September. I don't monitor the 1 bed so cannot comment but I imagine it is similar.

    Yes- if you look at DAFT asking prices, 2 beds are not in demand- its the larger units (both apartments and houses) that have seen their rents rebound in an unexpected manner.

    Agree with you re: student accommodation. Why pay 1k a month- when you can get your own apartment and a lot more freedom- for similar or less money.

    The whole race to build shoeboxes really is going to come back and bite people in the arses.


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    #1940
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    Judging by work colleagues, many are paying their rent until lease expires despite the fact many are working remotely from their home places dotted around the country but have no intention of renewing leases in Dublin but are going to rent or buy wherever their from with the view WFH is here to stay for the majority ones working week ( they can get a train to Dublin one or two days a week if necessary) .
    Going to lead to a lot more properties coming into the market for rent in Dublin .


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    #1941
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Potatoeman wrote: »
    There seem to be more properties on daft going up for 100-200k below the surrounding asking prices for a quick sale. They are taken down again pretty quickly.

    Reflective of appropriately priced units generating demand- while optimistically priced units, continuing to sit there.

    It all depends on the motivation of the landlord or the seller- are they in a rush to get the unit let or sold, or are they willing to sit out the carnage and see the lay of the land when things have settled down.

    Another stat not being mentioned anywhere- is the number of units that had rent reviews advised to the RTB once the emergency legislation expired. It seems that even in a falling market there are considerable numbers of units that got caught by the RPZ legislation that continue to be below open market values- and that continue to play catch up, despite the falling market. Its the government trying to have its cake and eat it- and discovering, if they want to rely on the private sector, that there are downsides to it, whether they like it or not.

    We need a fundamental rethink of the private rental sector- which *must* include a move away from local authorities renting units or buying units in the private sector, and building up its own capacity once again. Its nuts that there is a cool billion going on rent subsidies per annum- even if the government is getting just over 40% of it back in tax.

    We also are continuing to haemorhage landlords from the private sector- for a variety of reasons, not least of all, the adverse regulatory regime which governs the sector.


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    #1942
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    Going to lead to a lot more properties coming into the market for rent in Dublin .

    I'm not so sure. Speaking to family and friends- who are letting property in Dublin and Galway, many of them have precisely zero intention of reletting property once they get vacant possession of it. Many of them want to sell- or a puzzling number are happy to keep the units empty or for personal use.

    I think the numbers of properties that will rehit the rental market may in fact be a lot lower than people think.


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    #1943
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    I'm not so sure. Speaking to family and friends- who are letting property in Dublin and Galway, many of them have precisely zero intention of reletting property once they get vacant possession of it. Many of them want to sell- or a puzzling number are happy to keep the units empty or for personal use.

    I think the numbers of properties that will rehit the rental market may in fact be a lot lower than people think.

    It looks to be that way, the volume of properties on daft seems to be pretty stable for last month or two. So if the 1/2 beds are still dropping with no appreciable increase in supply it would indicate that if there was a step increase in supply you might start to see rents come down a lot more.


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    #1944
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,296 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    There are still people looking for crazy money for miniscule bedsits, both to sell and to let. These have been on daft the guts of 2 years as far as I can tell, the seller hardly thinks that NOW someone might offer what they are looking for.


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    #1945
    GocRh
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭GocRh


    https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/hanover-dock-hanover-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2094071/

    2 bedroom, views to Grand Canal. Would easily fetch 2.5k + before covid, or 130 eur+ a night on Airbnb.
    Not a bad deal, but still a lot of money.


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    #1946
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    GocRh wrote: »
    https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/grand-canal-dock/hanover-dock-hanover-quay-grand-canal-dock-dublin-2094071/

    2 bedroom, views to Grand Canal. Would easily fetch 2.5k + before covid, or 130 eur+ a night on Airbnb.
    Not a bad deal, but still a lot of money.

    Relatively speaking, not a bad deal. It's a nice apartment. The problem is Grand Canal Dock is a low demand area at the moment between the tech, law and finance firms making up the bulk of offices around there having staff WFH and, as you say, Airbnb is completely dead. There's 2 months left in 2021 but demand won't be back before then. Will be interesting to see if the older 2 bed apartments like this one in the most expensive areas tip below 2k by early next year.


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    #1947
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 944 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    DCC allowing student residences be temporarily converted to STL's.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/tourists-and-renters-to-be-permitted-in-student-accommodation-1.4391807?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fireland%2Firish-news%2Ftourists-and-renters-to-be-permitted-in-student-accommodation-1.4391807


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    #1948
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,296 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    As expected. This will surely send rent for studios and 1 bed apts to the floor.


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    #1949
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    In a housing crisis, this should be good news as it increases supply in the short-term. So I wonder what the actual basis for objections could be - if people don't like them they don't need to rent them.

    If the response to this is "well, people don't have a choice and we don't want these to be encouraged", then I would reply "what is your solution to work within the next 6 months then? This is important as right now people arguably do not have a choice which is why there are grown adults sharing bedrooms, renting couches etc.".


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    #1950
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,296 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    Presumably the tenancies will have some rights re length of tenure, surely that's an admission that students aren't returning any time soon


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    #1951
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    For the rest of the academic year it seems which means not until September 2021.

    I wonder what the prices will be for tourists and renters - the price of a student room in a Uninest place in Dublin https://www.daft.ie/ireland/residential-property-for-rent/?s%5Bagent_id%5D=11882&s%5Bp%5D=qptpwptr seems to be 1000-1100 per month. I'm not sure who that would be aimed at as the professional workers could afford to share in a nice 2/3 bed for around that and the part-time working, English language student definitely couldn't afford that.


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