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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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    #5612
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    New Statesman apparently reporting that May could call a GE for the 28th of February, with an announcement required by Thursday for that deadline?

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/01/three-cabinet-ministers-have-told-their-local-parties-prepare-general


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    #5613
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    Sorry, I must be mistaken, I was going on the German Association of the Automotive Industries figures, but what would they know about such matters?

    Their figures are here https://www.vda.de/en/services/facts-and-figures/annual-figures/exports.html

    They say that in 2017 the exports of German-made passenger cars were:

    UK - 768,896
    USA - 493,643
    China - 258,443
    France - 287,077
    Italy - 312,341

    Of course, the USA and China buy more "German" cars but a lot of them are manufactured locally.

    Perhaps you could write to them and tell them that they are wrong, they will be pleased that you've put them right.

    I don't think that I've suggested that Germany should favour the UK over the single market but the VDA says that in 2017 1/3 of Germany's passenger car exports to the EU went to the UK.
    He said "by value".


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    #5614
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    Why, because I pointed out that Scotland is overrepresented in the House of Commons?

    and why is that?


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    #5615
    ThePanjandrum
    Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    sandbelter wrote: »
    The GDP per capita disparity is currently is currently 2.5X so it's equivalent of Mexico joining the US.

    That's because your GDP is not a good measure of the true size of Ireland's economy.

    Fortunately, the EU recognise this and your payments are not based on your GDP.


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    #5616
    Folkstonian
    Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    and why is that?

    You have significantly more MPs per capita than any other region in the United Kingdom, is I believe his point


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    #5617
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 54,009 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Sky News apparently reporting that May could call a GE for the 28th of February, with an announcement required by Thursday for that deadline?

    It's probably the only way to break the impasse and unfortunately the Conservatives will win again because of Corbyn.

    Imagine Conservatives have a 6 points lead in the poles after the mess they have done to the UK, unbelievable .


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    #5618
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    road_high wrote: »
    Almost completely different cars tailored for those markets- they’re not going to alter those lines for a market the size of the UK.
    Oh dear,

    EU regulations mean EU manufacturers MUST offer left hand drive.



    One of the advantages of being in the EU is we get damn good consumer rights.


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    #5619
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Headshot wrote: »
    It's probably the only way to break the impasse and unfortunately the Conservatives will win again because of Corbyn.

    Imagine Conservatives have a 6 points lead in the poles after the mess they have done to the UK, unbelievable .
    What makes you think most Scottish Tories can keep their seats ?

    Indyref2


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    #5620
    ThePanjandrum
    Registered Users Posts: 431 ✭✭ThePanjandrum


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    He said "by value".

    So China is paying on average three times more than the UK for each German car it imports? Is that the point and is this actually happening? China can produce these vehicles far more cheaply than Germany so the penlty for buying from Germany would be even higher for the Chinese.


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    #5621
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So China is paying on average three times more than the UK for each German car it imports? Is that the point and is this actually happening? China can produce these vehicles far more cheaply than Germany so the penlty for buying from Germany would be even higher for the Chinese.
    Why don't you read his link? I just pointed out where you misread his post. What do I have to do now? Make your arguments for you?


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    #5622
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    Sorry, I must be mistaken, I was going on the German Association of the Automotive Industries figures, but what would they know about such matters?

    Their figures are here https://www.vda.de/en/services/facts-and-figures/annual-figures/exports.html

    They say that in 2017 the exports of German-made passenger cars were:

    UK - 768,896
    USA - 493,643
    China - 258,443
    France - 287,077
    Italy - 312,341

    Of course, the USA and China buy more "German" cars but a lot of them are manufactured locally.

    Perhaps you could write to them and tell them that they are wrong, they will be pleased that you've put them right.

    I don't think that I've suggested that Germany should favour the UK over the single market but the VDA says that in 2017 1/3 of Germany's passenger car exports to the EU went to the UK.
    Enzokk wrote:
    By value more cars were exported to the USA from Germany than to the UK.
    Bottom line.

    UK isn't profitable.
    UK car sales are down, margins are down. Breaking up the EU27 is their worst nightmare, well that and the emissions thing that's costing many multiples of what they make in the UK, and the trade war with the US. Besides VDA can't do s*it about Brexit because UK still hasn't a clue what it wants so why waste time on it when there are things they can do something about ?


    Even back in the good times BMW management used to refer to Rover as "The English Patient"


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    #5623
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So China is paying on average three times more than the UK for each German car it imports? Is that the point and is this actually happening? China can produce these vehicles far more cheaply than Germany so the penlty for buying from Germany would be even higher for the Chinese.
    Lotus are making cars in China now.

    Where is the light at the end of the tunnel for UK car making ?

    Turkey is in the CU and a lot cheaper.


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    #5624
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,074 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Folkstonian wrote: »
    You have significantly more MPs per capita than any other region in the United Kingdom, is I believe his point

    Yes, that is what he stated and I asked why is that?


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    #5625
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 54,009 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    What makes you think most Scottish Tories can keep their seats ?

    Indyref2

    That's is a good point, especially with how Scotland voted to remain in the UK but those votes would go to the SNP then.

    The rest of the UK I would suspect will vote Tories.


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    #5626
    Folkstonian
    Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    Yes, that is what he stated and I asked why is that?

    Because of the difference in population density presumably meaning constituencies are large but numbers of registered voters are comparitively small I assume?

    What are you getting at?


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    #5627
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,615 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    So China is paying on average three times more than the UK for each German car it imports? Is that the point and is this actually happening? China can produce these vehicles far more cheaply than Germany so the penlty for buying from Germany would be even higher for the Chinese.


    It is almost as if China is more interested in promoting their local business so they are putting a tax on imported cars. That could explain it. It would also explain why they are not rushing for a free trade deal with any other countries.

    Chinese buyers pay more for Audi, BMW, Mercedes
    On the basis of imported car prices, Chinese mainland levies a 25 percent tariff, 17 percent value-added-tax, and up to 40 percent consumer tax. An imported vehicle trading company on the Chinese mainland usually pays 25 percent income taxes, and other taxes including business tax, urban maintenance and construction tax, education tax, and some more according to local governments.

    When looking at a China-made Audi Q5 model and its US equivalent, Peopledaily.com.cn found the China-made car is sold for 150,000 yuan higher on the Chinese mainland than an imported Q5 in the US.

    The Audi Q5 2.0 TFSI, imported to the US, is priced at $37,300 (228,267 yuan). The China-made Audi Q5 2.0T has a suggested retail price of 383,600 yuan on the Chinese mainland. Buyers actually pay more because of dealer mark-up from the suggested price.

    Now I am only going on this article so I have no idea if this is true or not but it is interesting that China pays, according to the statistics, about 81 000 euro per car exported from Germany.

    In contrast the average UK price for a car imported from Germany is 32 500 euro. By comparison the average export to France is 57 000 euro and Italy is 39 600 euro. The average US price per vehicle exported is 54 500 euro according to the two sources. Spain is at 41 700 euro, Poland is 69 300 euro and the Netherlands is 76 600 euro.

    So the average price per German vehicle exported to the UK is the least among those I have listed. The price in China isn't even that excessive, it is just a little more per average than the Netherlands. I am sure we would get a clearer picture if we knew what vehicles were exported to the particular countries and also what type of taxes each country applies, but it does seems that while the UK accounts for a lot of vehicles in total it may not be the most profitable for German car makers.

    You didn't answer my question though, why should German car makers prioritize the UK market over the EU market?


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    #5628
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Headshot wrote: »
    That's is a good point, especially with how Scotland voted to remain in the UK but those votes would go to the SNP then.

    The rest of the UK I would suspect will vote Tories.
    In the previous election , Labour , Conservatives, and Labour each only got ONE seat in Scotland and NONE in Northern Ireland.


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    #5629
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    CNN claiming an exclusive tonight that an influential cross-party group of MPs is moving to wrest the initiative over the Brexit process from UK Prime Minister Theresa May and are planning to introduce legislation on Monday that would scupper the government's Withdrawal Bill and block a "no-deal" Brexit.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/19/uk/uk-lawmakers-brexit-plot-gbr-intl/index.html


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    #5630
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,637 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    CNN claiming an exclusive tonight that an influential cross-party group of MPs is moving to wrest the initiative over the Brexit process from UK Prime Minister Theresa May and are planning to introduce legislation on Monday that would scupper the government's Withdrawal Bill and block a "no-deal" Brexit.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/19/uk/uk-lawmakers-brexit-plot-gbr-intl/index.html

    Hardly an exclusive. We've known this was coming for a while now.


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    #5631
    Calina
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    Igotadose wrote: »

    Reason I bring this up is I've heard other older UK citizens whine about how the US collected from the UK but not, say, Germany. I say, so what. If the UK had instead gotten assistance from the USSR, what do you think the Soviets would have wanted in payment for their assistance? The UK couldn't afford to rebuild itself, got a loan, and then had to repay and are envious other loan recipients got a better deal. Such is capitalism. And it's whataboutery when it comes to Brexit, though I'm not denying that emotions are a big part of what's driving the Leave side.

    I think there is over simplification here. Britain was the largest recipient of Marshall Aid. But there is an argument to be made that the US exploited its position as creditor regarding loans and financing provided during the war to enforce monetary changes that benefitted itself. IIRC Keynes was the UK negotiator in terms of trying to deal with this.

    But in any case it should act as a salutary indication of the extent to which the UK could rely on the US in trade/economic matters which is that support comes at a price even when you are on high moral ground. It is an extremely strong argument agsinst Brexit.


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    #5632
    Calina
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    What I meant was that May and Robbins have controlled negotiations with the EU so far. Although I did not add this I am certain that May also intends that they will be in charge of negotiating a trade agreement during the transition period. Unless the UK refuses to be bound by EU regulations it is almost impossible for the UK to have any meaningful negotiations. That's the reason why a lot of us want no deal at the end of the Article 50 period. It gives more certainty, allows us to negotiate an arm's length FTA with the EU and to negotiate and sign agreements with other countries.

    The problem for you is that May is simultaneously attempting to limit the extent to which the UK's economy is trashed and its general population is completely impoverished. Your approach does not take that into account.


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    #5633
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    The only significant difference to the economy on either side of the border is whether Dublin or Westminster / Stornmount made the decisions.

    Right now the economic differences are close to those between East and West Germany. Population ratios are similar too.

    There is no incentive for NI to want to become part of the Republic,it is dearer to live in the Republic-car tax,stamp duty,NHS just to name a few.


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    #5634
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    Strazdas wrote: »
    And these were the crowd complaining about money being wasted on too many bureaucrats in the EU. As you say, the UK will have to hire swarms of new civil servants to try and handle the disaster that is Brexit - the whole point of the Single Market is to cut down on bureaucrats and paperwork.
    There is a clip where a senior civil servant is explaining this to Raab in a some parliamentary committee - it's funny to see Raab's (tiny) mind slowly process what is being said and explode - he clearly honestly thought that "taking back control" meant fewer UK civil servants would be needed - "cut through EU red tape" and all that.
    It is funny and slightly horrifying knowing how dim the guy really is (evidenced by his later statements also such as that regarding Dover-Calais) - and it is difficult not to generalise based on his example.


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    #5635
    kala85
    Registered Users Posts: 1,883 ✭✭✭kala85


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    There is no incentive for NI to want to become part of the Republic,it is dearer to live in the Republic-car tax,stamp duty,NHS just to name a few.

    But republic having better dole, better pay for some civil service jobs.


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    #5636
    Junkyard Tom
    Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Adamcp898 wrote: »
    there should never be a border poll simply because the perceived nationalist majority ticks over to 51%

    Why not? The north was created by means of a ethno-sectarian head count so it should come as no surprise if it is dismantled by its reversal -- if anything there'd a degree of poetic justice in exactly that.
    Bambi wrote: »
    Unionism has ... always relied on the bogey man of civic unrest
    First Up wrote: »
    If only. I'd expect years of civil disobedience - or worse.

    There will almost certainly be civic unrest in the event of a UI regardless of the numbers voting for a UI. Unionist unrest would have no ends though except perhaps unionist governed mini-cantons which they'd be welcome to. Civic unrest needs to be costed in to a UI.


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    #5637
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    ThePanjandrum wrote: »
    Even though more German-made passenger cars are exported to the UK than to any other country?
    Interesting that a brexiter has no difficulty understanding the " this one is big and that one is far away" concept when applied to others and their markets- but many are unable to do so when applied to the UK.


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    #5638
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    The UK could always switch to left hand drive I suppose.
    Just thinking: IIRC, the EU requires that right hand drive cars are available at the same cost as LHD - that is going to be slightly weird when the only EU members with RHD are Ireland, Malta and Cyprus.


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    #5639
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    fash wrote: »
    Just thinking: IIRC, the EU requires that right hand drive cars are available at the same cost as LHD - that is going to be slightly weird when the only EU members with RHD are Ireland, Malta and Cyprus.

    Car manufacturers will continue to produce right hand drive cars regardless of the outcome of Brexit. There are many countries not part of the EU which drive on the left so there will always a market for them.


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    #5640
    RobMc59
    Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Junkyard Tom wrote: »
    Why not? The north was created by means of a ethno-sectarian head count so it should come as no surprise if it is dismantled by its reversal -- if anything there'd a degree of poetic justice in exactly that.



    There will almost certainly be civic unrest in the event of a UI regardless of the numbers voting for a UI. Unionist unrest would have no ends though except perhaps unionist governed mini-cantons which they'd be welcome to. Civic unrest needs to be costed in to a UI.

    The problem would be that as Ireland would have to have a vote to say they also wanted a UI-that would put the onus on Ireland to pay for it which,correct me if I'm wrong is a none starter.


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    #5641
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Car manufacturers will continue to produce right hand drive cars regardless of the outcome of Brexit. There are many countries not part of the EU which drive on the left so there will always a market for them.
    Sure, but i was more thinking of the effect of diverging standards of non EU states.


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