Brexit Discussion Thread VI

demfad · 18-01-2019 04:39PM

Panrich wrote: »

This is very funny

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1086264773149380608

The "B" in "JCB" refers to Bamford.

Ferry company with no Ferries connection:

Seabourne Freight shares the same registered Address, 59 Mansell Street, as the Maritime Law firm Campbell Johnson Clark whose Director is called Mark Bamford, ...Sir Antony Bamford of JCB is a huge Tory party donor, his brother is called Mark

https://dwpexamination.org/forum/newsreel/the-corruption-behind-the-tory-freight-deal-with-a-shipping-company-that-has-no-ships/

Calina · 18-01-2019 04:43PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I doubt that the DUP would go for it, but if N.I. became an independent nation and was allowed to remain in the EU, they could also remain in the commonwealth and have a trade deal with Great Britain - problem solved?

(I mean obviously not, but just spit-balling)

No, if they are part of the EU as an EU member state they don't get to sign their own trade deals with GB.

demfad · 18-01-2019 04:55PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

You're advocating the merging of NI with the RoI against the current unionist majority. Hardly anything as noble as respecting the "consent of the NI electorate".

I am not suggesting there should be a poll. Just to point out that if a border poll succeeds it would by definition mean that only a minority wanted to maintain the Union with GB. In other words there cannot be a UI under the GFA against a Unionist majority.

If you mean a "Protestant" majority or that ethnic group then that's different.
My own view is that a border poll would be best instigated when a significant minority of the pro-UI vote are likely to be from this group.

Looking for a "majority" of this group as a threshold would only encourage the DUP to continue sectarian politics knowing it only needs to keep it's "own" in tow.

The best argument for keeping NI should be that Citizens have a better life there.

The recent referendums in the ROI have no doubt caused cracks in support for the DUP. They cannot rely on National loyalty when many Liberal Protestants may have so much more in common with the social realities down south.

If half of Protestants are required to vote for a UI the DUP can keep enough through fear. If only a significant minority are needed then you will see a liberalising NI needed to preserve the Union. That can't be bad?

Infini · 18-01-2019 05:02PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

I think you're making the assumption though that enough people want to be a member of the EU more than they want to be a member of the United Kingdom.

An assumption that I'd be very wary of given how quickly we've watched the North become polarised again in the past two years after years and years of slowly moving towards a middle ground.

56% of NI voted to remain. Id's say that's more than assumption you know.

demfad wrote: »

I am not suggesting there should be a poll. Just to point out that if a border poll succeeds it would by definition mean that only a minority wanted to maintain the Union with GB. In other words there cannot be a UI under the GFA against a Unionist majority.

Problem is that were seeing the opposite: The region being taken out of the EU against the will of the Majority here. Same as in Scotland. That's what's pushing the United Ireland agenda to begin with.

Adamcp898 · 18-01-2019 05:04PM

demfad wrote: »

I am not suggesting there should be a poll. Just to point out that if a border poll succeeds it would by definition mean that only a minority wanted to maintain the Union with GB. In other words there cannot be a UI under the GFA against a Unionist majority.

If you mean a "Protestant" majority or that ethnic group then that's different.
My own view is that a border poll would be best instigated when a significant minority of the pro-UI vote are likely to be from this group.

Looking for a "majority" of this group as a threshold would only encourage the DUP to continue sectarian politics knowing it only needs to keep it's "own" in tow.

The best argument for keeping NI should be that Citizens have a better life there.

The recent referendums in the ROI have no doubt caused cracks in support for the DUP. They cannot rely on National loyalty when many Liberal Protestants may have so much more in common with the social realities down south.

If half of Protestants are required to vote for a UI the DUP can keep enough through fear. If only a significant minority are needed then you will see a liberalising NI needed to preserve the Union. That can't be bad?

As I said a few posts ago, I've no interest in a debating the merits of a united Ireland in this thread. The only reason I replied at all in the post that you've quoted here is because the poster was either confused by the point I made or was twisting the meaning of it to their own end.

But you're right, some of the reasons you listed above are exactly the reason why there should never be a border poll simply because the perceived nationalist majority ticks over to 51%, something which the same poster is advocating. It would only serve to further polarise a highly polarisable situation.

Adamcp898 · 18-01-2019 05:06PM

Infini wrote: »

56% of NI voted to remain. Id's say that's more than assumption you know.

No, you're assuming that the 56% also would choose being a member of the EU over being part of the UK. That's the dangerous assumption to make.

Infini · 18-01-2019 05:07PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

No, you're assuming that the 56% also would choose being a member of the EU over being part of the UK. That's the dangerous assumption to make.

Is it? The whole problem is that we simply do not know at this point in time HOW badly Brexit and expecially a hard Brexit will play out. We simply do not know for definate how badly this will affect people but we've seen projections of Depression Level conditions for NI in the event of a No Deal Brexit. All caused by Tory and DUP incompetence. That can make alot of people reevaluate things when they see prosperity and stable government on the rest of the island.

Adamcp898 wrote: »

But you're right, some of the seasons you listed above are exactly the reason why there should never be a border poll simply because the perceived nationalist majority ticks over to 51%, something which the same poster is advocating above. It would only serve to further polarise a highly polarisable situation.

The problem is that the British Government should have thought of this before pursuing such a reckless and stupid Brexit agenda to begin with though. The only way this whole issue gets put back in hibernation is the total abandonment of Brexit as this is the whole reason this problem was caused to begin with.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2019 05:13PM

My understanding is that a customs union (THE Customs Union) would not be sufficient for frictionless movement of trade at Dover - they would still need Single Market as well. Is that correct?

Also, the current WA allows for any trade deal - Canada +++ or Norway +++, or any other +++ that they can think of during the trade negotiations. However, NI must remain in the CU and SM as far as it affects the GFA, all island economy, etc. Is this correct?

If both are correct, the WA should be agreed or Art 50 should be revoked. A crash-out is just nuts. The WA is a one size fits all.

briany · 18-01-2019 05:29PM

Infini wrote: »

The problem is that the British Government should have thought of this before pursuing such a reckless and stupid Brexit agenda to begin with though. The only way this whole issue gets put back in hibernation is the total abandonment of Brexit as this is the whole reason this problem was caused to begin with.

Brexit is only a symptom of general dissatisfaction among UK voters. If you remove Brexit now, but you don't allay the concerns that were (rightly or wrongly) blamed on the UK's EU membership, then all you're really doing is kicking the can down the road, and hoping to god you won't be the one to pick it back up.

Frank Bullitt · 18-01-2019 05:31PM

This is Monty Python scale stuff, listen to the cheer at around the 3 min remark when the blonde one says that May should walk away.

Or the guy at the 2 min mark who thinks No Deal scare the EU into coming back to the table...

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2019 05:33PM

As an aside, Isabel Oakeshott ghostwote Arron Banks' Bad Boys of Brexit.

It's rather terrifying that residents of a post-industrial city like Derby would be so fervent about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit. They seem to genuinely think that the disaster capitalists are concerned with their well-being.

Frank Bullitt · 18-01-2019 05:37PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, Isabel Oakeshott ghostwote Arron Banks' Bad Boys of Brexit.

It's rather terrifying that residents of a post-industrial city like Derby would be so fervent about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit. They seem to genuinely think that the disaster capitalists are concerned with their well-being.

They were almost frothing at the mouth at the idea of a No-Deal.

Honestly, the only reason I can think that they would want this, is because they don't know EXACTLY what it will do to them.

QT in a few months will be a really fascinating watch.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2019 05:43PM

Gintonious wrote: »

They were almost frothing at the mouth at the idea of a No-Deal.

Honestly, the only reason I can think that they would want this, is because they don't know EXACTLY what it will do to them.

QT in a few months will be a really fascinating watch.

I was an avid watcher for years until I grew fed up of the same arguments and soundbytes. Not even that I suppose, but rather the lack of change beyond a few rhetorical tweaks and adjustments over the years. Britain is having a row not with the EU but with itself.

There's a cracking article in the Guardian today by Fintan O'Toole who argues that Brexit is about the continuing fragmentation of the United Kingdom which has manifested itself in Brexit:

For all of this is the afterlife of dead things. One of them is Brexit itself. When did Brextinction occur? On 24 June 2016. The project was driven by decades of camped-up mendacity about the tyranny of the EU, and sold in the referendum as a fantasy of national liberation. It simply could not survive contact with reality. It died the moment it became real. You cannot free yourself from imaginary oppression. Even if May were a political genius – and let us concede that she is not – Brexit was always going to come down to a choice between two evils: the heroic but catastrophic failure of crashing out; or the unheroic but less damaging failure of swapping first-class for second-class EU membership. These are the real afterlives of a departed reverie.

If the choice between shooting oneself in the head or in the foot is the answer to Britain’s long-term problems, surely the wrong question is being asked. It is becoming ever clearer that Brexit is not about its ostensible subject: Britain’s relationship with the EU. The very word Brexit contains a literally unspoken truth. It does not include or even allude to Europe. It is British exit that is the point, not what it is exiting from. The tautologous slogan Leave Means Leave is similarly (if unintentionally) honest: the meaning is in the leaving, not in what is being left or how.....

It may seem strange to call this slow collapse invisible since so much of it is obvious: the deep uncertainties about the union after the Good Friday agreement of 1998 and the establishment of the Scottish parliament the following year; the consequent rise of English nationalism; the profound regional inequalities within England itself; the generational divergence of values and aspirations; the undermining of the welfare state and its promise of shared citizenship; the contempt for the poor and vulnerable expressed through austerity; the rise of a sensationally self-indulgent and clownish ruling class. But the collective effects of these interrelated developments do seem to have been barely visible within the political mainstream until David Cameron accidentally took the lid off by calling a referendum and asking people to endorse the status quo.

I think he's bang on with his assessment here. In the short term, Brexit needs to be cancelled but the underlying causes must also be dealt with.

Sam Russell · 18-01-2019 05:44PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, Isabel Oakeshott ghostwote Arron Banks' Bad Boys of Brexit.

It's rather terrifying that residents of a post-industrial city like Derby would be so fervent about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit. They seem to genuinely think that the disaster capitalists are concerned with their well-being.

Or even Airbus or Rolls Royce will be that bothered if they have to close up shop and leave town for the EU.

And the BoJo was denying (pure lies) today about not using Turkeys in his pre-referendum campaign. Well here they are - cheering for Christmas.

Havockk · 18-01-2019 05:54PM

Gintonious wrote: »

This is Monty Python scale stuff, listen to the cheer at around the 3 min remark when the blonde one says that May should walk away.

Or the guy at the 2 min mark who thinks No Deal scare the EU into coming back to the table...

There is a bewildering level of ignorance in the UK right now. I mean, this is stuff that shouldn't even need to be rebutted but it goes out on national television on the flagship politics program?

Havockk · 18-01-2019 05:56PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, Isabel Oakeshott ghostwote Arron Banks' Bad Boys of Brexit.

It's rather terrifying that residents of a post-industrial city like Derby would be so fervent about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit. They seem to genuinely think that the disaster capitalists are concerned with their well-being.

How do you see that playing out? Once the realisation hits?

mrbrianj · 18-01-2019 05:59PM

Gintonious wrote: »

This is Monty Python scale stuff, listen to the cheer at around the 3 min remark when the blonde one says that May should walk away.

Or the guy at the 2 min mark who thinks No Deal scare the EU into coming back to the table...

You'd have to laugh at the 'German cars' line - do they realise that the UK sell just as many back into the EU?

They wont listen to their own car manufacturers so why should Merkel listen to hers?

Seth Brundle · 18-01-2019 06:03PM

mrbrianj wrote: »

You'd have to laugh at the 'German cars' line - do they realise that the UK sell just as many back into the EU?

They wont listen to their own car manufacturers so why should Merkel listen to hers?

I reckon the German manufacturers know that the UK people will still buy cars from Germany.

A Dub in Glasgo · 18-01-2019 06:10PM

It seems to be me in work talking about Brexit and the risk this brings, one of the other guys shrugs his shoulders and says what will be will be .... I suppose he has a point to an extent as we have little influence on the farce that is being played out before our eyes.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2019 06:16PM

Even if they decide to remain, Britain has done huge damage to itself. Its politicians and political structures have been exposed as deeply flawed. Its citizens seem to be unaware of many facts or simply don't care. Its press has shown itself to be breathtakingly biased. The political rhetoric throughout the past two years has been deeply insulting to its closest neighbours. Their behaviour when negotiating has been a mixture of arrogance and ignorance. They have lost thousands of jobs that won't be coming back.

Most problematic, and this doesn't seem to register, any manufacturer or service provider would be quite mad to invest in Britain. There is always the strong possibility over the next few years, until negotiations are fully concluded, that they could crash out at the whim of a Brexiteer Tory PM - such a Tory leader will probably take over from May. Equally, even if they stay or opt for a soft Brexit, Euroscepticism will never go away and will always be tugging away at the threads trying to unravel Britain's relationship with the EU.

demfad · 18-01-2019 06:29PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

As an aside, Isabel Oakeshott ghostwote Arron Banks' Bad Boys of Brexit.

It's rather terrifying that residents of a post-industrial city like Derby would be so fervent about the prospects of a no-deal Brexit. They seem to genuinely think that the disaster capitalists are concerned with their well-being.

She was also aware of Banks having multiple meetings with the Russian ambassador to the UK and not one meeting as the book maintained. Withholding this information was extremely helpful to Banks and anyone else in this group (Wigmore, Farage) who may have been acting the maggot with Russians/US billionaires to deliver Brexit.

For Forks Sake · 18-01-2019 06:34PM

demfad wrote: »

She was also aware of Banks having multiple meetings with the Russian ambassador to the UK and not one meeting as the book maintained. Withholding this information was extremely helpful to Banks and anyone else in this group (Wigmore, Farage) who may have been acting the maggot with Russians/US billionaires to deliver Brexit.

More on that here.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-a-journalist-kept-russias-secret-links-to-brexit-under-wraps

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2019 06:55PM

Havockk wrote: »

How do you see that playing out? Once the realisation hits?

The working classes suffer more, those who are mobile amongst whom I am sufficiently fortunate to count myself by virtue of my being Irish will leave the country in larger numbers than at present while the Jacob Rees-Moggs of the country enrich themselves with Project Singapore-on-Thames. All the while the media will be desperately looking for scapegoats. If people equate Brexit with greater sovereignty, Murdoch, Desmond, the Barclays and Rothermere might find their margins taking a hit.

flutered · 18-01-2019 08:04PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Hurrache wrote: »

May and her ministers apparently are set to block Bercow's peerage, the first time in 230 years, as a punishment for what they see as his bias during the Brexit debate.

How incredibly petty of them

now very trump like of them

flutered · 18-01-2019 08:08PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Russman wrote: »

True, but I think most MPs don't want to leave at all but are terrified to say it for fear of their seats and being seen to "go against the people".

Which is exactly why Norway is perfect. It is technically Brexit - they leave the EU, but it does the least damage possible.

i read on overclockers that the host and the floor manager spent twenty minutes before the show started telling dianne abbot jokes

Dyr · 18-01-2019 08:14PM

Adamcp898 wrote: »

This is what you said:

Then this:

You're advocating the merging of NI with the RoI against the current unionist majority. Hardly anything as noble as respecting the "consent of the NI electorate".

And I haven't expressed any opinion other than that it's generally a bad idea to force anything on anyone, something which I thought would be fairly obvious, so I'm not sure what I'm meant to be "not okay" with either.

Emphasis mine.

Emphasis mght be yours but so is the lack of attention to what is written.

It was a minority that led to the creation of NI, loyalism had no majority prior to the gerrymandering of the 6 counties, it was a minority which caused the collapse of the sunningdale agreement. If there is successful border poll it will be a minority once more that certain quarters will be tip toeing around as in your post:

No. The problem (not the only, just the major one) with what you've just outlined is that it would be an extremely antagonistic way to try and force a United Ireland and could lead to huge amount of unrest and violence.

There is no way to "force" a UI, if the people of NI vote for one it doesn't matter a damn if you, John Bruton or Gregory Campbell consider it "antagonistic". Unionism has always claimed its veto was based on the will of the people in NI but ultimately they have always relied on the bogey man of civic unrest and your mindset rewards their approach.

Sand · 18-01-2019 08:17PM

Havockk wrote: »

How do you see that playing out? Once the realisation hits?

You had a status quo where it could be shamelessly proposed in mainstream media that the UK could be governed indefinitely while ignoring a third of the people living in it. Its clear any form of Brexit will have a significant and negative GDP impact, but I think people are not grasping that Brexit was underpinned by a revolt against that status quo which locked them out. Even after the realisation that GDP is negatively affected, I don't think you're going to see rioting on the streets about GDP.

What is much more likely is political fragmentation as the realisation hits they are still ignored and locked out by Westminster, of which the disaster capitalists are only a faction.

Donald Trump · 18-01-2019 08:23PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The working classes suffer more, those who are mobile amongst whom I am sufficiently fortunate to count myself by virtue of my being Irish will leave the country in larger numbers than at present while the Jacob Rees-Moggs of the country enrich themselves with Project Singapore-on-Thames. All the while the media will be desperately looking for scapegoats. If people equate Brexit with greater sovereignty, Murdoch, Desmond, the Barclays and Rothermere might find their margins taking a hit.

I disagree

We already know that any post Brexit declined will be the explained away as evil EU punishing the British people for their cheek in wanting democracy or some such shite or for "winning WWII" or some such variation.

They'll get a few years out of that.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2019 08:23PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Which is exactly why Norway is perfect. It is technically Brexit - they leave the EU, but it does the least damage possible.

Norway is a complete non-starter.

Four freedoms including Movement
Schengen
Hard border and few crossing points, not hundreds.
No passporting for UK services
Norway pays the EU the same as the UK per capita.
Customs union so EU rules except for oil , energy , fish and agriculture things which the UK doesn't export.

Spot any red lines ?

Norway plus plus is a completely different animal and was never on offer from the EU.

Water John · 18-01-2019 08:27PM

The UK never used the full set of rules available to them under the EU to limit immigration. TM should be constantly called out on this.

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Comments