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A question about Gambling addiction

2

Comments

  • #32
    byronbay2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭byronbay2


    osarusan wrote: »
    "Virtual racing".

    Computerised horse races from 'courses' with a name like Fakingham racecourse, timed to fill the 10-15 minute gap between actual races. There are also computerised car races and there even used to be football matches, but I haven't seen them in a while.

    The logical monetising outcome of the ground-breaking conclusion that 'these people will bet on anything.'

    That's how you spot the addicts - they're the ones gambling on virtual racing. Invented by the bookies to take the addict's money off him quicker. Obviously, a compulsive gambler will lose all his money anyway, but the bookies didn't want them leaving the shop during periods when there was no horse/dog racing on so they created virtual sports that run every few minutes and last for a very short time - 30 seconds or so.

    Compulsive gambling is a very complex and insidious addiction and is most certainly not a function of intelligence (or lack thereof). Visit a rehab centre (Cuan Mhuire or others) and you will see people getting residential treatment from all strata of society. BTW, the treatment programme for gambling addiction is longer than that for alcoholism. There are a minimum of 40,000 problem gamblers in Ireland so anyone who gambles on a reasonably regular basis will be rubbing shoulders with compulsive gamblers all the time. As I say, they're generally pretty easy to spot in a bookies. The problem is that most compulsive gamblers never set foot in a bookies shop.


  • #33
    BorneTobyWilde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,197 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    The buzz?
    The buzz in losing. I hate to lose, I want to win.
    I like to win big. Played an accumulator Wednesday 4 horses decent prices to return 50k roughly, two win. I lose again!
    Putting on 25 to win 25 on and even money shot, pointless. Most bets I play I play for huge return, one day I'll hit it or not...
    I can't recall last time I picked a ''single'' winner. Longest losing streak ever.


  • #34
    LionelNashe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,958 ✭✭✭LionelNashe


    maudgonner wrote: »
    Yes, but if you rig it you can increase that. I get your point, but rigging outcomes will always make the bookie more money.

    I don't think so - the bookie's goal is to fleece the punter, not skin him. Ideally the punter will win sometimes so that he can fool himself into thinking that he's ahead, or that he has the chance of getting ahead, and then the bookie has a customer for life and gains more in the long run.


  • #35
    maudgonner
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,455 ✭✭✭maudgonner


    LionelNashe wrote: »
    I don't think so - the bookie's goal is to fleece the punter, not skin him. Ideally the punter will win sometimes so that he can fool himself into thinking that he's ahead, or that he has the chance of getting ahead, and then the bookie has a customer for life and gains more in the long run.

    True, but rigging something does not mean that you set it to always lose. You can control the outcomes however you want - let the punter win as much or as little as you want. Even decide who wins and who loses if you've got fine-grained enough control.


  • #36
    cowboyBuilder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,419 ✭✭✭cowboyBuilder


    osarusan wrote: »



    That virtual stuff is the saddest stuff of all.
    Originally Posted by Kauto viewpost.gif
    You see clowns in the shops everyday backing on these virtual things and by God it is depressing seeing them burning 2 and 3 euro a time.





    What virtual stuff ?


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  • #37
    valoren
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭valoren


    Dots1982 wrote: »
    If you think gambling and heroin addiction is the same then it is you who doesn't understand addiction in my opinion.

    Addiction has the potential to destroy a persons life irregardless of the means or devices that they need to feed their addiction.


  • #38
    osarusan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,926 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    cowboyBuilder wrote: »
    What virtual stuff ?
    Like I said earlier:
    "Virtual racing".

    Computerised horse races from 'courses' with a name like Fakingham racecourse, timed to fill the 10-15 minute gap between actual races. There are also computerised car races and there even used to be football matches, but I haven't seen them in a while.


  • #39
    Olishi4
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,469 ✭✭✭Olishi4


    I know an old man who goes to bet at the dogs a lot. He doesn't gamble much money. He has friends that he meets there. It is a hobby for him.

    I suppose you might get the same in a betting shop. Discussing the odds with other gamblers and things like that. It's a game.

    I agree it can be a hobby for some people and no issue. It's just when someone is addicted, the consequences can be very bad.


  • #40
    Lavinia
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,114 ✭✭✭Lavinia


    whatismyname wrote: »
    Gambling addiction is rarely about making money.
    The buzz. The release. The escapism. All kinds of things but making money .
    ^^^
    This.
    Summarizes it all.


  • #41
    Radharc na Sleibhte
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,538 ✭✭✭Radharc na Sleibhte


    I'm no nanny state lover but all these ads on tv for betting can't go on.
    Especially during football or any sporting broadcast.
    And it's so easy now to just take out your phone and one touch betting or tap tap boom as the ads themselves say.
    I would say it's rife.
    People who wouldn't really bet regularly do so I can only imagine how much some people are wasting.


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  • #42
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    I deposited €50 on Betfair earlier in the year. Profit the last time I looked was €6,432.40 and it has improved slightly since.

    Gambling is an addiction if you are losing.
    You need to work at it.


  • #43
    valoren
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭valoren


    Can't beat them? Join them.

    Buy shares in the Bookies that are listed \O/

    Dolla...Dolla!


  • #44
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    jamesbere wrote: »
    If your smart with your gambling you can make money but only a small few do I think. Since online gambling came into existence gambling addiction has risen. Between sports, casino and bingo there's a wide variety of ways to get a person sucked in.
    It depends on what you call "gambling".

    There are many people who would call playing poker "gambling" just like betting on horses, but it's not really.

    In poker and most similar card games, skill is a key element. Sure, there's an element of chance in terms of the cards that come up, but a skilled poker player with a poor hand can annihilate a novice who's holding a full house. So it's not really "gambling", it's a game of skill. And this is why people can make a living out of it.

    Some would argue that the same applies to betting on horse racing and such. That you can study the form and make educated choices in order to make good money.

    And that's true to a point. However the bookies stack everything in their favour. The bookies play the game against you and limit the size of your potential win based on your likelihood of winning.

    It's like playing a game of poker where the size of the pot is inversely proportional to how good your hand is. That is, when you have a good hand, the pot is kept small. When you have a poor hand, the pot is bigger.

    You're being set up to lose from the start.

    The only people who win big on gambling are the bookies and the trainers. Between the rewards they get from gamblers and the government, they're practically printing money.


  • #45
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    seamus
    I don't bet with bookies. I bet with Betfair and in big events you can bet as much as you like.
    A tip for gamblers - if you fancy something and the odds are large increase your bet. Most do the opposite: they bet big on favourites, and bet small on outsiders.


  • #46
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    seamus wrote: »
    a skilled poker player with a poor hand can annihilate a novice who's holding a full house
    Is this true? :pac:
    I've played a lot of poker and never seen that.


  • #47
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    diomed wrote: »
    Is this true? :pac:
    I've played a lot of poker and never seen that.
    The skilled player would never show his hand after his opponent folded, so how would you know? :pac:


  • #48
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    diomed wrote: »
    Is this true? :pac:
    I've played a lot of poker and never seen that.

    Not really.. The player has to be a bit better than a novice to get scared of higher full houses / quads and fold. A complete novice will get excited and put all his money in.


  • #49
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    seamus wrote: »
    The skilled player would never show his hand after his opponent folded, so how would you know? :pac:
    Why is the player with the full house going to fold?
    The only interesting fold I head about was by an Irish rugby international.
    The Texas Hold 'Em board had quads and an ace. The other player went all in and the rugby guy folded.

    If that is the level of novice your ideas might work. Or if it obvious that a higher hand might be out e.g. JJJ on the board and the novice has pocket 22.
    In most other cases your "skilled player" is handing his chips over to the novice.


  • #50
    endabob1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭endabob1


    Dots1982 wrote: »
    I know it is politically correct to be extremely understanding of all types of addiction but as a gambler myself there is something i don't understand about gambling addiction.

    No one I know has got rich from gambling. People have had big wins but most of the time I think they have given it all back down through the years. Why in that case do people not realise it is a hobby that costs money rather than makes money?

    I know some people are stupid and illogical and have no self control. But people like Oisin Mcconville are highly intelligent and come across as logical yet he nearly ruined his life with gambling.

    This might come across as a bit superior but sometimes i think the gambling industry gets a bad rap because some punters can't accept YOU ARE NEVER GOING TO MAKE MONEY FROM GAMBLING.

    I know people who make their living from it, I know a professional black jack player, divides his time between Scandinavia, London & the States. Interesting and fiercely intelligent guy, only plays black jack, to him it's a job, he is just very good at working out the statistics of it all, very quickly.

    I have a good friend who bets seriously on horse racing, he's a member of ascot and epsom, only bets (seriously) on flat racing and I have personally seen lose a truck load of money (£5k) on Gallileo (if anyone remembers the horse) when it lost for the first time. He reckoned it was in the best 3 horses he'd ever seen and thought it was unbeatable. That said i know because I seen the slips, he had won much more on him earlier in the season at both Irish & English Derby's. I've been racing a few times with this guy and he is very disciplined, keeps a record of everything and has always made money on it. He has a proper job so doesn't do it professionally, but he's been doing it for 30 years, he knows what he is doing.

    The problem is that these guys are the exception, people think they can be like them but the reality is that unless you are super intelligent, have nerves of steel and practice non-stop you will never be a professional card player. Unless you study horse racing, know how horses are bred, know their bloodlines and what ground it's good on, distance it's suited to, know what the trainers are like etc.... you are just a mug punter.
    I am a mug punter, i'll stick a couple of bob on horse races, knowing very little, but it's fun for me 2 or 3 quid, i'll have a wager on the golf, same thing, to me it's fun and adds some interest.


  • #51
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    endabob1 wrote: »
    I know people who make their living from it, I know a professional black jack player, divides his time between Scandinavia, London & the States. Interesting and fiercely intelligent guy, only plays black jack, to him it's a job, he is just very good at working out the statistics of it all, very quickly.

    I have a good friend who bets seriously on horse racing, he's a member of ascot and epsom, only bets (seriously) on flat racing and I have personally seen lose a truck load of money (£5k) on Gallileo (if anyone remembers the horse) when it lost for the first time. He reckoned it was in the best 3 horses he'd ever seen and thought it was unbeatable. That said i know because I seen the slips, he had won much more on him earlier in the season at both Irish & English Derby's. I've been racing a few times with this guy and he is very disciplined, keeps a record of everything and has always made money on it. He has a proper job so doesn't do it professionally, but he's been doing it for 30 years, he knows what he is doing.

    The problem is that these guys are the exception, people think they can be like them but the reality is that unless you are super intelligent, have nerves of steel and practice non-stop you will never be a professional card player. Unless you study horse racing, know how horses are bred, know their bloodlines and what ground it's good on, distance it's suited to, know what the trainers are like etc.... you are just a mug punter.
    I am a mug punter, i'll stick a couple of bob on horse races, knowing very little, but it's fun for me 2 or 3 quid, i'll have a wager on the golf, same thing, to me it's fun and adds some interest.

    My brother is a professional poker player. Has been for about five years after leaving a very good job. He only plays live games so he lives where there are good games on.

    He treats it like a job. Does about forty hours a week usually and has a great lifestyle. I couldn't do it though. I watched him get burnt badly on a one outer in a huge pot. I felt worse than he did because to him, it's just chips.


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  • #52
    osarusan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,926 ✭✭✭✭osarusan


    endabob1 wrote: »
    The problem is that these guys are the exception, people think they can be like them but the reality is that unless you are super intelligent, have nerves of steel and practice non-stop you will never be a professional card player. Unless you study horse racing, know how horses are bred, know their bloodlines and what ground it's good on, distance it's suited to, know what the trainers are like etc.... you are just a mug punter.
    I am a mug punter, i'll stick a couple of bob on horse races, knowing very little, but it's fun for me 2 or 3 quid, i'll have a wager on the golf, same thing, to me it's fun and adds some interest.
    Absolutely.

    My father had a mature student a good few years ago that was a jockey. He was not the best student because by his own admission, he planned to ride horses until he was too old to do that anymore.

    During one conversation, the fact that he was under suspension came up, and he openly admitted that he was under instructions to make sure the horse came nowhere, and did so. He got investigated and had to portray himself as an idiot rather than a cheat. He said this was just part of the game if you wanted to make it as a jockey.

    But for us mug punters, the horse he was on might have looked a good bet...there is just so much we don't, and can't, know.


  • #53
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    The "crooked jockey" theory might hold good in low level races where the possibility of winning large on a bet is of more interest to connections that the win or place prizemoney. Any sensible punter should know that.

    I tend to confine my bets to Group races on the flat, or the important races / prep races for those Group races.

    Why? The prize for the English Derby is not the £1 million prizemoney. The prize for the owner of Galileo who won in 2001 (I was there) was stud fees of at least 100 covers a year at about €300,000 a time, or €30 million a year. His stallion career of perhaps 20 years, might yield €600 million.
    The same for fillies. A Group win will probably increase the value of her foals from €20k to €100k x 15 foals, or an extra €1.2 million over her broodmare career.

    That is why the horses, owners, trainers, and jockeys are trying to win Group races. That is why I avoid low level races.


  • #54
    Andre 3000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭Andre 3000


    I'd beg to differ. It's actually pretty easy to make a profit from gambling, especially if it's poker. I'm a young student who paid every cent of his college education through poker winnings. Also, when it comes to betting, you need to find a niche sport. Betting on horses and dogs is idiotic. Things likes Boxing and Tennis are far more reliable and in the long run you'll turn a profit.


  • #55
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Andre 3000 wrote: »
    Betting on horses and dogs is idiotic.
    I bet on horses.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591581
    Post #1 and post #17

    http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/29061313/larc-de-triomphe-2012?pg=27
    Post 07 Oct 12 03:18
    Post 07 Oct 12 16:17
    74/1 winner …. €12.800 profit

    http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/29169287/2013-epsom-derby?pg=16
    Post 31 May 13 23:26
    16/1 winner … €3,050 profit


  • #56
    Kauto
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    Andre 3000 wrote: »
    I'd beg to differ. It's actually pretty easy to make a profit from gambling, especially if it's poker. I'm a young student who paid every cent of his college education through poker winnings. Also, when it comes to betting, you need to find a niche sport. Betting on horses and dogs is idiotic. Things likes Boxing and Tennis are far more reliable and in the long run you'll turn a profit.

    Beg to differ. Far harder to turn a profit from Soccer etc. The bookies have so many stats on every aspect of the games and they are priced to within an inch of their lives.

    If you know what your doing in Horses and know the handicaps and form you can make it pay much easier than on Boxing, tennis etc.


  • #57
    Andre 3000
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭Andre 3000


    diomed wrote: »
    I bet on horses.
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057591581
    Post #1 and post #17

    That's a one off. My post made reference to the long run. Most people have had big one off wins on the horses at Cheltenham, Aintree etc.


  • #58
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    Andre 3000 wrote: »
    That's a one off. My post made reference to the long run. Most people have had big one off wins on the horses at Cheltenham, Aintree etc.
    I've been in the long run and I'm still running.

    And €7k on the 2006 English Derby at 17/1
    And €12,800 in the 2012 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
    And €3,000 on the 2013 English Derby
    And €4,600 win on Jason Day at 85s in the 2013 US Masters

    And in 2016
    And €2,700 on the 2016 US Masters (bet €497 at 440/1 Smylie Kaufman)
    And €550 Tottenham Hotspur for the Premeier League €10 at 170, €20 at 50
    And €2,800 in the 2016 English 2000 Guineas.
    And Swansea to beat Arsenal away at 12s
    And Leicester to beat Manchester City away at 5.4?
    And €100 laying Foundation in the Dante Stakes yesterday.

    My Paddy Power account was in profit when I bet with them. Now I bet exclusively at Betfair and my account was and is in profit.

    €50 deposited with Betfair this year and a €6,432 profit to date (I actually withdrew all funds and had to deposit €200 to have the winning English 2000 Guineas winning bet at 14/1).

    Addicted gamblers are like people who turn up at a payroll window asking for their weeks wages, people who have not worked in the company.

    On the horseracing forum someone said they were going to a horse auction next week to buy. From their post it looks like they have little knowledge.
    I offered to analyse the 256 horse catalogue and pick out the only horses that are worth consideration. I can do this because I analyse pedigree of thousand of horses, write programs to do analysis, have a pedigree database of 368k horses and other databases, all prepared by me.

    My short list is seven horses, but I'm adding and subtracting based on what I'm learning.
    - tell him the running record and ratings of the dams of the horses on sale, an important indicator of the likely running ability of the horses in the catalogue, who are all unraced.
    - tell the likely distance to suit the unraced horses: will they be sprinters, middle-distance, or long distance runners?


  • #59
    Doodah7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,885 ✭✭✭Doodah7


    Kauto wrote: »
    Very simple if you back a horse at 12/1 that you think should be 5/1m you will make money.

    Will give you an example tonight in Kilbeggan 6.40. Call Me PJ is 14/1. He will be 7/1 or shorter come race time which is closer to this through odds. If you keep backing horses at longer prices than they should be you will make money.

    Does the nag not have to win also?? All well and good getting long odds when they shorten but that is only one half of the equation...


  • #60
    Kauto
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 823 ✭✭✭Kauto


    tallpaul wrote: »
    Does the nag not have to win also?? All well and good getting long odds when they shorten but that is only one half of the equation...

    If you are backing overpriced horses over a sustained period of time you will win. It the laws of probability.

    I only need to win once every 13 goes to make money at those prices.


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  • #61
    endabob1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭endabob1


    tallpaul wrote: »
    Does the nag not have to win also?? All well and good getting long odds when they shorten but that is only one half of the equation...

    Of course, but that's the whole point isn't it.
    If its "Real" chances of winning the race are 7/1 and you back it at 14/1 and it doesn't win, statistically if this is repeated over and over you will end up winning double because the horse will statistically win one in 7 races but you will have a winner at 14/1

    Of course the problem is that is no actual "real" odds, it is always subjective and dependent on external factors, the art is in narrowing the external factors and spotting the value, horses priced above what you perceive to be the "real" odds.

    Which is why black jack and casino games are so much more popular for professional punters, because they can offer true statistics, if you are playing black jack and you draw an ace you know the exact odds of the next card being a picture.


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